Hurricane Hunters find 50 - 60 mph winds in disturbance 92L north of Puerto Rico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:54 PM GMT on August 25, 2009

Share this Blog
4
+

The tropical wave (92L) a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico is generating a large area of surface winds of 50 - 60 mph, according to the latest information from the Hurricane Hunters. Top winds seen so far at their flight level of 1,000 feet were 69 mph, which would make 92L a strong tropical storm if it had a surface circulation.
However, the aircraft has not found a surface circulation, and the satellite appearance shows virtually no change in the amount, intensity, or organization of the storm's thunderstorm activity. Wind shear has dropped to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots this afternoon, but the upper low 92L is moving underneath is dumping cold, dry air into the region. Dry air continues to get ingested into 92L's thunderstorms, creating strong downdrafts that are robbing 92L of heat and moisture. These downdrafts are creating surface arc clouds that spread out from where the downdraft hits the ocean surface. NHC continues to give 92L a high (greater than 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon.

The forecast for 92L
As 92L moves underneath the center of the upper low on Wednesday morning, the upper low is expected to weaken, and wind shear is expected to decline to the low range, 5 - 10 knots. However, the upper-level low will continue to dump dry, cold air into 92L through Thursday afternoon, slowing down development. By Thursday night, when 92L should be several hundred miles off the coast of northern Florida, the upper-level low may be weak enough and far enough away that 92L will find itself in a region with light upper level anticyclonic winds, which would favor more rapid development. However, this favorable environment will not last long, since a strong trough of low pressure will be approaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. This trough will bring high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots by Friday night. This trough should be strong enough to turn 92L to the north. The models disagree substantially on how close 92L will be to the coast at that time. One camp of models, including the NOGAPS, Canadian, UKMET, and ECMWF models, predict 92L will pass very close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Friday night or Saturday morning. The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models keep 92L several hundred miles out to sea. Both sets of models bring 92L north-northeastwards on Saturday, with a track over Massachusetts or Nova Scotia. The intensity forecast for 92L is problematic, since it's eventual strength depends upon how quickly it manages to become a tropical depression. Given that 92L will find itself in a favorable environment for strengthening for about 36 hours this week, and marginal for the remainder of the week, I give the system these odds:

10% chance of never getting a name.
20% chance of becoming a weak tropical storm (40 - 50 mph winds).
40% chance of becoming a strong tropical storm (55 - 70 mph winds).
30% chance of attaining hurricane strength.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The ECMWF and UKMET models predict the development of a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week. The GFS model no longer shows this.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 389 - 339

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20Blog Index

Quoting extreme236:


I'd say we have a good shot at seeing Danny after the recon tomorrow afternoon...gonna need a good 24 hours to organize some more as the shear drops.


I Agree..that wave nearing the African coast looks intense. I'm more concerned about that as far as in the long term.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
no problem Storm! sorry to ask, but what is your name?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Anybody ever heard of a meteorologist named Phil Ferro out of Miami...channel 7?


Yeah.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
I just noticed on the loop 92L looks like its shrinking without losing convection, Is it trying to tighten up and close off?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have Storm...(I watch channel 7)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thank you Storm!! For now, I will not panic..if anything changes, that is another story...

I'm sorry all!! I didn't mean to cause any distractions... I didn't see it on the main page, so I was confused...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JupiterFL:


Some people on here get suspicious because of certain games that have been played in the past.

what is that? the second time today you have brought it up? relax a little, no ones out to get you
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
92L appears to have multiple vorticity centers.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 521 Comments: 19119
hey, i just want to say thanks to everyone who patiently answers questions and shares his thoughts willingly to all of us who are here looking for information and are trying to become more knowledgable, a special thanks to StormW, he consistently provides accurate and valuable information to all of us and is really patient and tries his best to explain anything we may be wondering about, Thanks!
-Matt
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JupiterFL:


Some people on here get suspicious because of certain games that have been played in the past.
yep. We can hope that this is not the case. Time will tell.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I think they also say innocent until proven guilty. She came on a few days ago and said this was her first time and she doesn't understand.


I wasn't directing that comment at anyone specific. All I am saying is that you have to be careful around here. There are wolves in sheeps clothing that will try and bait and trap. Its happened to well respected members of the blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thanks a lot. Don't rub it in.LOL

Ditto, just some rain , much needed rain thats all, it would be a blessing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Browardjon:
im out of hee folks,gonna watch Shaq vs. Be back in an hour.
Enjoy the game.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
im out of hee folks,gonna watch Shaq vs. Be back in an hour.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting zoomiami:
Stormpetrol: it will be interesting to watch that area to see what happens. Unfortunately that's an area where things could spin up pretty quick.
Thanks a lot. Don't rub it in.LOL
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
Quoting connie1976:
Thanks stormwatcherCI!!
I thought it was just me being sensitive...
No problem. I know you come here to learn as a lot of us do but some folks know it all so everyone else should too.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
connie feel free to ask anything you would like. I learn from yur questions
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weathermandan:
Just out of curiousity, are Subtropical storms more or less predictable than purely Tropical storms?


I would have to guess less, because we have a much smaller statistical/climatological record of this kind of storm; its type, history, etc, and also because they form in regions that are often data poor. As the sheer volume of observations from satellites increase in the near future, and as their type of (mainly wind and moisture) data are assimilated into higher and higher resolution models that actually resolve convection (instead of parameterizing in like global models do), forecasts of both tropical and subtropical storms should continue to improve.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:

I'll be 45 in November and I can never remember it being this hot in Grand Cayman, CI. and I never been away for more than 2 weeks during the Summer and those years were very few & far between.
I know what you mean. I have been living here since Feb 73 and I only go away for a weekend every 4-5 years and I don't remember it this hot before either.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
Stormpetrol: it will be interesting to watch that area to see what happens. Unfortunately that's an area where things could spin up pretty quick.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks stormwatcherCI!!
I thought it was just me being sensitive...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JupiterFL:


Some people on here get suspicious because of certain games that have been played in the past.
I think they also say innocent until proven guilty. She came on a few days ago and said this was her first time and she doesn't understand.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
if you are so impatient and get upset at everything someone does that doesnt seem right to you, you might want to find something else to dowith your evening. this is an open discussion board. just as easily as you can read someones comment or queston, you can also ignore it and move on to the next.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks storm!!! so whatever this thing is is going north and past south florida....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I tell you. The heat is unbelievable. I don't remember it being this hot in a very long time.

I'll be 45 in November and I can never remember it being this hot in Grand Cayman, CI. and I never been away for more than 2 weeks during the Summer and those years were very few & far between.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaneAddict:
Good evening everyone :). I see that the Hurricane Hunters didn't find a circulation but did find some surprising wind speeds. I figured they wouldn't find a circulation based on satellite imagery. I can't seem to locate anything that even resembles a closed surface circulation. All I see is arcs with the cloud pattern...


I'd say we have a good shot at seeing Danny after the recon tomorrow afternoon...gonna need a good 24 hours to organize some more as the shear drops.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You don't have to be snippy. She is new and just learning. Have you never heard "Patience is a virtue" ?


Some people on here get suspicious because of certain games that have been played in the past.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Haven't seen him!

Hi Connie!


lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:
ECMWF 12z shows what appears to be a pretty powerful Cape-verde style hurricane. Forms in 48 hours and steadily intensifies.


Yeah..if it comes from the current wave off Africa I doubt it will be a threat to any land areas. However if it originates from the wave nearing the coast we may have a big problem.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks all for your info!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
354. viman
There has to be some kinda circulation associated with 92L, because the winds have been south to southwest all day here. This is very unusual for these islands and it would indicate that something os going on under that blob. It also has been phenomenally hot here. More so than usual, we need rain badly... my cistern is extremely low - the lowest that I have seen since it was built 19 years ago. May have to buy water, which would be a first for me...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting flsky:


Please check the graphics on the Tropical page B4 posting. You can get a lot information there that has already been discussed.
You don't have to be snippy. She is new and just learning. Have you never heard "Patience is a virtue" ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
Good evening everyone :). I see that the Hurricane Hunters didn't find a circulation but did find some surprising wind speeds. I figured they wouldn't find a circulation based on satellite imagery. I can't seem to locate anything that even resembles a closed surface circulation. All I see is arcs with the cloud pattern...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting connie1976:
I don't always understand...so I ask... :)


It's okay - 93l isn't on the tropical page anymore as it was deactivated earlier today. It was a disturbance in the southern Carribean that moved into central america. It appears that it may have left a small piece of energy behind that might need to be watched, although none of the models see it at this point.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting connie1976:
Where did storm go? when does he post his blog things??


You can email him and ask. He should know where he is better than us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ECMWF 12z shows what appears to be a pretty powerful Cape-verde style hurricane. Forms in 48 hours and steadily intensifies.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A little venting here...before I come on the blog, I check out NHC site and the satellite images. I then enter the blog and review the last 50 posts. It just peeves me when bloggers just pop on and ask what's going on, not taking the time to read previous posts that most bloggers have put a lot of effort, time and analyzing to relay to all of us.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Browardjon:
dont get mad at people for asking questions. that is what a blog is for. if you already know everything about weather, you dont need to be here. some of us are wanting to learn and share opinions.


exactly
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting largeeyes:
The CMC will develop a fart from a butterfly in Somalia...


No. It doesn't spin up nearly as many as it used to thanks to some modifications. Still spins up more than the rest, but its worth watching.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
dont get mad at people for asking questions. that is what a blog is for. if you already know everything about weather, you dont need to be here. some of us are wanting to learn and share opinions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Where did storm go? when does he post his blog things??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The CMC will develop a fart from a butterfly in Somalia...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AL 92 2009082600 BEST 0 233N 667W 40 1010 DB
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 389 - 339

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.