Bill is gone; Invest 92 pops up

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:08 PM GMT on August 24, 2009

Share this Blog
3
+

Hurricane Bill is no more. The hurricane swept past Canada's Nova Scotia province Sunday afternoon, then made landfall early this morning in southeastern Newfoundland as a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane. Bill's waves claimed two lives over the weekend, a 54-year old swimmer that drowned in Florida, and a 7-year old girl in Maine that got swept into the sea by a big wave. The first death of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season occurred on August 16, when a swimmer drowned in the rough surf from Tropical Storm Claudette at Pananma City Beach, FL.

Nova Scotia misses a direct hit
The center of Bill scooted parallel to the coast of Nova Scotia Sunday afternoon, and never quite came onshore. Since the storm's forward speed was so rapid--about 35 mph--this resulted in a highly asymmetric wind distribution. Since the top winds of a hurricane include the forward motion of the storm, Bill's top winds of 85 mph observed in the offshore, right front quadrant of the storm meant that the winds on the weak side of the storm, over Nova Scotia, were 85 mph minus 35 mph, or just 50 mph. Winds along most of the coast stayed below 39 mph, the borderline for tropical storm-force winds. The strongest winds measured in Canada were at Sable Island, which lies 150 miles offshore of Nova Scotia. Winds on the island hit 61 mph, gusting to 77 mph, between 4 - 5 pm ADT Sunday afternoon. A few islands along the Nova Scotia coast, such as Beaver Island and Hart Island, reported sustained winds of 39 - 40 mph. The big story for Nova Scotia was the waves from Bill. Buoy 44258 at the mouth of Halifax Harbor recorded significant wave heights of 29.5 feet and maximum wave heights of 49 feet as Bill passed 50 miles offshore. The buoy recorded top sustained winds of 35 mph, gusting to 51 mph. The waves combined with a 1.5 - 3 foot storm surge flooded many coastal roads. Buoy 44150, about 160 miles offshore of of the southwest tip of Nova Scotia, was in the east eyewall of Bill between 10 - 11 am ADT, and reported sustained winds of 62 mph, gusting to 85 mph, with significant wave heights of 44 feet. The buoy recorded a maximum wave height of 87 feet, according to Environment Canada. The highest official rain report on Nova Scotia was 2.6" (65 mm) at Yarmouth. Rainfall cause some localized flooding and road damage. Bill's winds cut power to about 40,000 people at the height of the storm. At Peggys Cove, three men were hit by a giant wave but were not hurt. A gift shop and attached home in the village were swept off of their foundation.

Newfoundland gets hit, but damage is minor
The southeast corner of Newfoundland took a direct hit from Bill. The storm made landfall early this morning as a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane. Top winds on the island were measured at Cape Race, which recorded sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 76 mph, between 1:30 and 2:30 am NDT. A storm surge of 1.2 meters (4 feet) was estimated by Environment Canada for Placentia Bay where Bill made landfall. Damage was minor on Newfoundland, with no major flooding reported. Bill dumped up to three inches of rain on Newfoundland.


Figure 1. The eye of Hurricane Bill on August 19 at 2157 UTC, from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying at 10,000 feet. Photo credit: Jack Parrish of NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center.

Kelvin-Helmholtz instability waves in the eye of Bill
Flight Director Jack Parrish of NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center snapped a cool photo in the eye of Hurricane Bill on Friday, showing the existence of a Kelvin-Helmholtz instability wave (Figure 1). The photo was taken on August 19 at 2157 UTC, from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying at 10,000 feet. The photo is taken looking WNW towards the eyewall. The towering clouds of the eyewall extend up to 50,000 - 55,000 feet in the photo, and the ocean surface is not visible, due to stratocumulus clouds covering the bottom of the eye. The center of the photo shows that the top of one of these stratocumulus clouds has a feature that looks like a breaking wave in the ocean. Well, that is an example of a breaking wave in the atmosphere known as a Kelvin-Helmholtz instability wave. The atmosphere behaves as a fluid, and thus has wave-like motions. When there is a sudden change of wind speed along the top of a cloud (wind shear), the flow can become unstable and cause breaking waves to form. One can see Kelvin-Helmholtz in the sky several times per year, and several alert wunderphotographers have uploaded photos of these waves over the years. However, it is uncommon to see these waves in the stratocumulus clouds covering the eye of a hurricane.


Figure 2. Water vapor satellite image for 8:15 am EDT 8/24/09. A tropical wave is approaching the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, but is running into high wind shear from an upper-level cold low to the west of it. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

Tropical wave approaching Lesser Antilles becomes Invest 92
A tropical wave with a moderate amount of shower activity is moving west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph and is approaching the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. This wave was designated "Invest 92" (92L) by NHC this morning. The wave is under about 20 - 30 knots of wind shear due the strong upper-level winds from the west. These winds are being created by the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level cold-cored low north of Puerto Rico (Figure 2). This low is expected to move west-southwest and slowly weaken over the next two days, allowing shear to drop to the moderate 10 - 20 knot range beginning Tuesday night, according to the SHIPS model. By Wednesday, the upper low is predicted to be weak enough and far enough away from 92L that it will have a chance to develop. Most of the models show some degree of development of 92L by Thursday, when it is expected to be a few hundred miles off the coast of South Carolina. This wave could turn northward and give a wet weekend to New England, though it is too early to be confident of this. NHC is giving 92L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. The upper-level low will create plenty of wind shear and dump cold, dry air into 92L over the next two days, so Wednesday is probably the earliest we can expect the system to begin organizing into a tropical depression.

Several models predict the development of a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Beach Wall wave 1 (BeachBecky)
Waves from Hurricane Bill crashing on the sea wall during high tide in Lynn, MA
Beach Wall wave 1
Hurricane Bill Waves Day 2 # 9 (RIWXPhoto)
Hurricane Bill Waves Day 2 # 9
Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities (btangy)
Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities to the S of Boston. Wavy like pattern in clouds is caused by a difference in winds between the cloud layer and the layer just above (called wind shear). The manifestation of this at the top of the altostratus deck is quite a beautiful and rare sight!
Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1348 - 1298

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33Blog Index

Quoting TampaSpin:


When you say rough winter i guess your repling too Severe weather. Don't know there is anything that is an example of that but, it sure makes some sence with only a slight true difference in heat as the winter will cool it down.


Well, I was just wondering if things are so hot now that come winter things would be very cold...like ice storm or something....I am new at all this so this may make no sense at all. Just a thought I had...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like shear is relaxing some over 92L

Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
Lightning increasing offshore of the Cape. :/ Looks like my trip to coca beach to watch the launch may be compromised.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Yes they did but there are many recent glaring examples where they performed very poorly and there will be more to follow. Take Ivan, forecast by the models to pass over Jamaica but went South of us and through the Yucatan channel.


My favorites are Katrina and Rita.

Katrina = Texas, no Florida, no Louisiana and Mississippi. LOL
Rita = South Texas then trended further EAST until landing in SWLA.

What variations!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1344. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO (EP122009)
3:00 AM UTC August 25 2009
=============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Ignacio (1004 hPa) located at 17.0N 117.8W or 570 southwest of Southern Tip of Baja California Peninsula has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-northwest at 9 knots.

Gale-force Winds
================
45 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: - 17.4N 119.1W - 40 knots (Tropical Storm)
24 HRS: - 18.1N 120.9W - 50 knots (Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: - 20.8N 124.3W - 50 knots (Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: - 24.0N 127.5W - 40 knots (Tropical Storm)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting OBXNC:
Hey folks!

Just sitting here watching the models bring some tightly packed isobars directly over the Outer Banks of NC ...

Does anyone have a (relatively) good handle on how strong this system (92L) could get?

I'm getting a bit nervous, b/c what some of the models are showing is what us locals KNOW to be a nightmare scenario for the Outer Banks - a strong hurricane moving inland just to our west and pushing up the sounds ...

Regardless, we took a bit of a beating from Bill's waves here - still trying to get some pictures archived and then will post a couple here - we've lost a bit of dunes recently and will have absolutely no time to recover.

Anyway, hello again - I look forward to being a more active part of the discussions on here. StormW, Pat and others, thank you all for sharing your knowledge with us all.


Don't get too worked up yet. It is still too early to say where this system will ultimately end up and how strong it would be.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5300
DEPRESSION BECOMES THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:
so if the GOM does not have a tropical cyclone this season, what happens with all that heat in the GOM, could that mean a ruff winter?


When you say rough winter i guess your repling too Severe weather. Don't know there is anything that is an example of that but, it sure makes some sence with only a slight true difference in heat as the winter will cool it down.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 178 Comments: 20439
1340. OBXNC
Hey folks!

Just sitting here watching the models bring some tightly packed isobars directly over the Outer Banks of NC ...

Does anyone have a (relatively) good handle on how strong this system (92L) could get?

I'm getting a bit nervous, b/c what some of the models are showing is what us locals KNOW to be a nightmare scenario for the Outer Banks - a strong hurricane moving inland just to our west and pushing up the sounds ...

Regardless, we took a bit of a beating from Bill's waves here - still trying to get some pictures archived and then will post a couple here - we've lost a bit of dunes recently and will have absolutely no time to recover.

Anyway, hello again - I look forward to being a more active part of the discussions on here. StormW, Pat and others, thank you all for sharing your knowledge with us all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Good night all!

My youngest wants me to wake him up for the shuttle launch.

Night StormW
If you want StormW, you could give my your number and I'll call you with 5mins to launch
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Well, I don't know about all that!

I just call 'em as I see 'em.


Your analysis always makes sense!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I highly doubt the shuttle will go tonight. Check out Melbourne radar. There are numerous thunderstorms going up right offshore of the Cape and moving towards it slowly. They look to reach it around 1. I give it a 20% chance of launching imo...
UT OH...
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:

C'mon. They did a pretty good job with Bill.
I think things have improved. You've been watching the weather for a long time, Kmanislander.


Yes they did but there are many recent glaring examples where they performed very poorly and there will be more to follow. Take Ivan, forecast by the models to pass over Jamaica but went South of us and through the Yucatan channel. And, wasn't Ike supposed to hit S Fla ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1334. centex
Quoting truecajun:


great! that's what i thought. just checking.
It's 94L later in the week that will be real intersting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Good night all!

My youngest wants me to wake him up for the shuttle launch.
me too :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Good night all!

My youngest wants me to wake him up for the shuttle launch.


GOODNIGHT STORMW!!! :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:
so if the GOM does not have a tropical cyclone this season, what happens with all that heat in the GOM, could that mean a ruff winter?
it gets auctioned off in early December :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I highly doubt the shuttle will go tonight. Check out Melbourne radar. There are numerous thunderstorms going up right offshore of the Cape and moving towards it slowly. They look to reach it around 1. I give it a 20% chance of launching imo.
NASA TV just stated weather is currently green or a go but that they are carefully watching several cells.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Compare the actual versus the forecast track for the next system and you will see what I mean. If the system does not go where the models predict then they adjust according to what it is doing. If I could call a game like that I would be a winner every time LOL

C'mon. They did a pretty good job with Bill.
I think things have improved. You've been watching the weather for a long time, Kmanislander.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I highly doubt the shuttle will go tonight. Check out Melbourne radar. There are numerous thunderstorms going up right offshore of the Cape and moving towards it slowly. They look to reach it around 1. I give it a 20% chance of launching imo.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
so if the GOM does not have a tropical cyclone this season, what happens with all that heat in the GOM, could that mean a ruff winter?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


any chnace i can see it from here?

Space shuttle set to launch tonight; U.S. East Coasters may see it climbing

The shuttle's climb into space should be visible—weather permitting—in the night sky along the East Coast, according to Joe Rao of the Hayden Planetarium in New York City. The glow of Discovery's three main engines, he writes in his blog, will look like "a very bright, pulsating, fast-moving star, shining with a yellowish-orange glow." In the Southeast, the bright light of the solid-rocket boosters will be visible as they burn for the first two minutes of flight.

Rao's blog has a map showing where and when
http://www.haydenplanetarium.org/blog/joerao/2009/03/09/shuttle-launch-visible-along-east-coast

the shuttle can be found in the sky post-liftoff, but he notes that anywhere outside the neighborhood of Cape Canaveral it will be quite low—five to 10 degrees above the horizon. Shuttle viewing opportunities in the Northeast, where the shuttle should be visible six to eight minutes after liftoff, may be spotty due to possible cloud cover, but much of the rest of the Eastern seaboard has a relatively clear forecast around launch time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Well, I haven't really done any analysis tonight...but from my synopsis earlier:

The disturbance is moving to the WNW, and I expect this motion to continue for the next 36-48 hours.

Based on the current wind shear forecast, warm SST's of the Gulfstream, and TCHP ranging between 60-70 kj/cm2, I am forecasting further development of this disturbance.

The forecast is for the ULL to continue to move NW, then north, reducing wind shear gradually over the disturbance during the next 72 hours. The CMC and GFS shear forecast call for an upper level anticyclone to develop east of Florida, and move with the system in about 72-96 hours in the forecast period from 06Z this morning.

Based on the parameters I've analyzed, wind shear should relax enough with this disturbance to allow it to "maintain" itself as a disturbance. I am not looking for any rapid or moderate development from this during that time, but beleive we should see this organize a little more quickly once it reaches the northern Bahamas area.

Right now it's useless to follow the model track guidance. However, based on should this develop, given the current forecast steering layers maps, and support from the CMC, NOGAPS, ECMWF, and UKMET models, this system could have a direct impact on the OBX/Hatteras area. Again, it is too early to pinpoint an EXACT track for this, but this is what model consensus supports at the moment.

Of the current model runs, I cannot rule out the CMC solution of a 997mb tropical storm. Though the upper level winds will not be optimal, they would tend to support a T.S. of this nature. Again, this could change with the pattern, and forward speed and motion of the system. I can't rule out the CMC track either at this moment.

Again, I don't expect good development until this reaches the northern Bahamas area, to off the FL/GA coast.

I will continue to monitor this disturbance closely for any significant changes during the next 24 hours.


THANK YOU!!!!! :):) Dang yer good!!!! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:

Really? I didn't know that...


Compare the actual versus the forecast track for the next system from start to finish and you will see what I mean. If the system does not go where the models predict then they adjust according to what it is doing. If I could call a game like that I would be a winner every time LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1321. geepy86
Quoting AussieStorm:

Watching them get strapped in right now
Link

I guess my puppies will let me know when it goes. I only live a few miles from there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
1310. Chicklit 9:27 PM EST on August 24, 2009

We got a half inch today but the deficit is quite severe. Only 2.3 inches in July and less than 2 for August so far. I haven't seen anything like it for many years

That's what it was like in Central Florida in 04, just before we got hit with about 4 canes in 6 weeks or was it 6 canes in 4 weeks? Not good on details.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


No thats right 92L will probably be an east coast storm. The one near Panama is supposed to move out onto the pacific.


great! that's what i thought. just checking.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1310. Chicklit 9:27 PM EST on August 24, 2009

We got a half inch today but the deficit is quite severe. Only 2.3 inches in July and less than 2 for August so far. I haven't seen anything like it for many years
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The southeastern part of the tropical wave is much favorable part of the wave to develop into the tropical cyclone models are showing. Signs of possible increasing in organization tonight.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3673
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


any chnace i can see it from here?

Watching them get strapped in right now
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Couldn't resist it LOL.

Model mania is hilarious especially since more than half the time they are wrong !

Really? I didn't know that...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting truecajun:
hello everyone. neither of these invests are forcasted to enter GOM - right? i always make statements on here then put a question mark after right. laughing at myself.


No thats right 92L will probably be an east coast storm. The one near Panama is supposed to move out onto the pacific.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


any chnace i can see it from here?


http://www.space.com/php/multimedia/imagedisplay/img_display.php?pic=090309-shuttle-spot-map-02.jpg ∩=Viewing+Map%3A+Weather+permitting%2C+a+night+launch+of+the+space+shuttle+is+typically+visible+fr om+much+of+the+East+Coast.+The+most+dramatic+view+is+from+inside+the+yellow+circle.+But+within+the+r ed+circle%2C+skywatchers+may+see+very+bright%2C+pulsating%2C+fast-moving+object+that+resembles+the+b rightest+stars+in+the+sky+from+3+to+8+minutes+after+launch.+For+viewers+near+the+edges+of+the+circle s%2C+however%2C+the+shuttle+will+hug+the+horizon%2C+so+an+unobstructed+view+is+needed.+Credit%3A+SPA CE.com%2FStarry+Night+Software
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The ULL will chew it up and spit it out.
That is better for the conus since the other blob is further east. But who knows.
Looks like Kman wants some rain coming his way.
Maybe one of the Cape Verde waves will cooperate. (not funny, sorry...) I remember Ike complaining about how dry it was in the panhandle and it's been raining on him ever since! LOL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Definitely the "LBAR" Blob stands a better chance. DMAX should help it out.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5300
Quoting Chicklit:

Cute, kman. Until the concrete wears out and the rebar rusts...


Couldn't resist it LOL.

Model mania is hilarious especially since more than half the time they are wrong !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hello everyone. neither of these invests are forcasted to enter GOM - right? i always make statements on here then put a question mark after right. laughing at myself.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Space Shuttle Discovery is seen at the Kennedy Space Center at Cape Canaveral, Fla. Sunday August 23, 2009. Discovery is schedule to lift off Tuesday morning on a mission to the International Space Station. -- PHOTO: AP

Floridians and east coasters, this may be your last chance to view a space shuttle night launch.

scheduled for 1:36 a.m. EDT (0536 GMT) Tuesday from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida.


NASA live video feed
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1305. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Chicklit:

I give the LBAR blob the best chance of initializing since the other one is headed into more shear.
the stronger south eastern blob will become prime the blob to the nw is sheared out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1304. JLPR
Quoting Chicklit:

I give the LBAR blob the best chance of initializing since the other one is headed into more shear.


yep the LBAR blob is related to the MLC
the other one is part of the ULL now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:
I like the REBAR model. Use lots in your walls to ensure adequate resistance to hurricane force winds.

Cute, kman. Until the concrete wears out and the rebar rusts...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting surfmom:


well, you caught my eye with this Kman.

& you know I won't forget -- LOL
after last year I pay mind to your sensibilities


Time will tell but down here it's been like an oven for weeks and dry as a bone. Giving me a funny feeling LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:
Actually, 92L doesn't remind me of pre-Noel as much as pre-Hanna in a sense. Similar ULL situation and location.


That is a very valid comparison
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5300
Quoting StormW:


:)


So glad to have met ya!!! Well haven't met personally, but I admire your forecasts!!! :) What do you think will happen to the invest??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

I give the LBAR blob the best chance of initializing since the other one is headed into more shear.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Still Positive.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1348 - 1298

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
74 °F
Scattered Clouds