Bill is gone; Invest 92 pops up

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:08 PM GMT on August 24, 2009

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Hurricane Bill is no more. The hurricane swept past Canada's Nova Scotia province Sunday afternoon, then made landfall early this morning in southeastern Newfoundland as a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane. Bill's waves claimed two lives over the weekend, a 54-year old swimmer that drowned in Florida, and a 7-year old girl in Maine that got swept into the sea by a big wave. The first death of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season occurred on August 16, when a swimmer drowned in the rough surf from Tropical Storm Claudette at Pananma City Beach, FL.

Nova Scotia misses a direct hit
The center of Bill scooted parallel to the coast of Nova Scotia Sunday afternoon, and never quite came onshore. Since the storm's forward speed was so rapid--about 35 mph--this resulted in a highly asymmetric wind distribution. Since the top winds of a hurricane include the forward motion of the storm, Bill's top winds of 85 mph observed in the offshore, right front quadrant of the storm meant that the winds on the weak side of the storm, over Nova Scotia, were 85 mph minus 35 mph, or just 50 mph. Winds along most of the coast stayed below 39 mph, the borderline for tropical storm-force winds. The strongest winds measured in Canada were at Sable Island, which lies 150 miles offshore of Nova Scotia. Winds on the island hit 61 mph, gusting to 77 mph, between 4 - 5 pm ADT Sunday afternoon. A few islands along the Nova Scotia coast, such as Beaver Island and Hart Island, reported sustained winds of 39 - 40 mph. The big story for Nova Scotia was the waves from Bill. Buoy 44258 at the mouth of Halifax Harbor recorded significant wave heights of 29.5 feet and maximum wave heights of 49 feet as Bill passed 50 miles offshore. The buoy recorded top sustained winds of 35 mph, gusting to 51 mph. The waves combined with a 1.5 - 3 foot storm surge flooded many coastal roads. Buoy 44150, about 160 miles offshore of of the southwest tip of Nova Scotia, was in the east eyewall of Bill between 10 - 11 am ADT, and reported sustained winds of 62 mph, gusting to 85 mph, with significant wave heights of 44 feet. The buoy recorded a maximum wave height of 87 feet, according to Environment Canada. The highest official rain report on Nova Scotia was 2.6" (65 mm) at Yarmouth. Rainfall cause some localized flooding and road damage. Bill's winds cut power to about 40,000 people at the height of the storm. At Peggys Cove, three men were hit by a giant wave but were not hurt. A gift shop and attached home in the village were swept off of their foundation.

Newfoundland gets hit, but damage is minor
The southeast corner of Newfoundland took a direct hit from Bill. The storm made landfall early this morning as a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane. Top winds on the island were measured at Cape Race, which recorded sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 76 mph, between 1:30 and 2:30 am NDT. A storm surge of 1.2 meters (4 feet) was estimated by Environment Canada for Placentia Bay where Bill made landfall. Damage was minor on Newfoundland, with no major flooding reported. Bill dumped up to three inches of rain on Newfoundland.


Figure 1. The eye of Hurricane Bill on August 19 at 2157 UTC, from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying at 10,000 feet. Photo credit: Jack Parrish of NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center.

Kelvin-Helmholtz instability waves in the eye of Bill
Flight Director Jack Parrish of NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center snapped a cool photo in the eye of Hurricane Bill on Friday, showing the existence of a Kelvin-Helmholtz instability wave (Figure 1). The photo was taken on August 19 at 2157 UTC, from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying at 10,000 feet. The photo is taken looking WNW towards the eyewall. The towering clouds of the eyewall extend up to 50,000 - 55,000 feet in the photo, and the ocean surface is not visible, due to stratocumulus clouds covering the bottom of the eye. The center of the photo shows that the top of one of these stratocumulus clouds has a feature that looks like a breaking wave in the ocean. Well, that is an example of a breaking wave in the atmosphere known as a Kelvin-Helmholtz instability wave. The atmosphere behaves as a fluid, and thus has wave-like motions. When there is a sudden change of wind speed along the top of a cloud (wind shear), the flow can become unstable and cause breaking waves to form. One can see Kelvin-Helmholtz in the sky several times per year, and several alert wunderphotographers have uploaded photos of these waves over the years. However, it is uncommon to see these waves in the stratocumulus clouds covering the eye of a hurricane.


Figure 2. Water vapor satellite image for 8:15 am EDT 8/24/09. A tropical wave is approaching the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, but is running into high wind shear from an upper-level cold low to the west of it. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

Tropical wave approaching Lesser Antilles becomes Invest 92
A tropical wave with a moderate amount of shower activity is moving west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph and is approaching the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. This wave was designated "Invest 92" (92L) by NHC this morning. The wave is under about 20 - 30 knots of wind shear due the strong upper-level winds from the west. These winds are being created by the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level cold-cored low north of Puerto Rico (Figure 2). This low is expected to move west-southwest and slowly weaken over the next two days, allowing shear to drop to the moderate 10 - 20 knot range beginning Tuesday night, according to the SHIPS model. By Wednesday, the upper low is predicted to be weak enough and far enough away from 92L that it will have a chance to develop. Most of the models show some degree of development of 92L by Thursday, when it is expected to be a few hundred miles off the coast of South Carolina. This wave could turn northward and give a wet weekend to New England, though it is too early to be confident of this. NHC is giving 92L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. The upper-level low will create plenty of wind shear and dump cold, dry air into 92L over the next two days, so Wednesday is probably the earliest we can expect the system to begin organizing into a tropical depression.

Several models predict the development of a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Beach Wall wave 1 (BeachBecky)
Waves from Hurricane Bill crashing on the sea wall during high tide in Lynn, MA
Beach Wall wave 1
Hurricane Bill Waves Day 2 # 9 (RIWXPhoto)
Hurricane Bill Waves Day 2 # 9
Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities (btangy)
Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities to the S of Boston. Wavy like pattern in clouds is caused by a difference in winds between the cloud layer and the layer just above (called wind shear). The manifestation of this at the top of the altostratus deck is quite a beautiful and rare sight!
Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities

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1398. Grothar
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


You are getting just like me now KEEPER. I can't post a DARN thing. I bet it was a nice graphic though. Try again.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25990
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Weather officer, Cathy Winters just declared weather has gone red so I assume that means the launch is on hold. She stated there is precipitation and cumulus outside of launch parameters.

Weather Update
Tue, 25 Aug 2009 01:11:43 PM EST

Shuttle Weather Officer Kathy Winters has informed Launch Director Pete Nickolenko that the Eastern Range has gone "red," or "no-go," due to a new system forming over the launch pad. Specifically, the new weather system violates the cumulus-cloud rule and flight-through-precipitation rule. Weather officials with the 45th Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group in Houston continue to keep a close eye on the weather around the launch and landing sites at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, as well as emergency landing sites overseas should they be necessary.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
guys 93L is geting its act togeter and fast it got it march better when we 1st saw 93L



Proximity to land is the only thing I see that will inhibit tropical cyclogenesis. I think this will become TS Jimena in the EPAC.
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1393. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1392. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:
We had Gail Storm,maybe she is a meteorolgist now.:)


Her name was Gale Storm and she just passed away recently. Didn't know anyone remembered her.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25990
Still have time to lose red
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guys 93L is geting its act togeter and fast it got it march better when we 1st saw 93L

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Quoting Codaflow:


Typically we'll wait until the very last 9 minute hold. If there's precip, lightening, cumulus or anvil clouds in a 20 mile radius we just won't come out of the hold and recycle for 24 hours. I'm crossing my fingers that the weather will clear because these shifts are brutal.
Thanks for, I assume, onsite update. It is much appreciated.
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Keeper...your the best..XX Star
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1385. hydrus
Quoting LightningCharmer:
The weather officer for this mission is, Cathy Winters. Good name for a weather officer.
We had Gail Storm,maybe she is a meteorolgist now.:)
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Weather officer, Cathy Winters just declared weather has gone red so I assume that means the launch is on hold. She stated there is precipitation and cumulus outside of launch parameters.
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1382. centex
Any Pluto fans? I've always thought they should draw the line at Pluto, not eliminate it. I guess it's an American thing.
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Thank you to all....all my puters back on. launch is green for weather....Thanks again..Star
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1380. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


CAPE RADAR SHUTTLE LAUNCH SITE
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The NAM is forecasting some development just off shore in the Northern GOM in 48-60hrs.....I don't normally look at the NAM for development beyond that time......but, within 48hrs it actually does a decent job at forecasting Stormy weather conditions...

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The weather officer for this mission is, Cathy Winters. Good name for a weather officer.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
These storms might die out by 1:36 for the blast off of the space shuttle! But, i'm not sure how far in advance they might pull the plug because of weather...I know they could wait for the Hold period.....T-10.

About 10 mintues ago on NASA TV, they mentioned these storm to the southeast, and if they enter the 20 mile radius, the weather status of green may change.
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Quoting LightningCharmer:
0259 GMT, Roughly two and a half hours till lift-off. Plenty of time to discuss tropical weather beforehand.

I was hoping to watch it live, going to work in 2hrs.
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1374. centex
Quoting TampaSpin:
These storms might die out by 1:36 for the blast off of the space shuttle! But, i'm not sure how far in advance they might pull the plug because of weather...I know they could wait for the Hold period.....T-10.

Do they have a window?
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1373. geepy86
Quoting OBXNC:
I want to go up to my rooftop deck here at the beach house to see if I can see the launch (if it happens 2nite), but there is a HUGE spider that has built a web directly across the steps leading up there.

I just can't do it. lol. I hate those things. it's the size of a football, i swear!

(okay, so more like the size of a quarter ... but might as well be a football - it's that sneaky kind that watches you and reacts as you make movements ..... uuuuuggggghhhhh ... heebie jeebies!)

Raid. lol
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These storms might die out by 1:36 for the blast off of the space shuttle! But, i'm not sure how far in advance they might pull the plug because of weather...I know they could wait for the Hold period.....T-10.

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Quoting AussieStorm:

What time is it now?
0259 GMT, Roughly two and a half hours till lift-off. Plenty of time to discuss tropical weather beforehand.
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Good night, everyone. I probably will not be on until around 1 pm EDT. Have a good night! Have to get up early tomorrow...ugh!
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5311
f
Quoting OBXNC:
I want to go up to my rooftop deck here at the beach house to see if I can see the launch (if it happens 2nite), but there is a HUGE spider that has built a web directly across the steps leading up there.

I just can't do it. lol. I hate those things. it's the size of a football, i swear!

(okay, so more like the size of a quarter ... but might as well be a football - it's that sneaky kind that watches you and reacts as you make movements ..... uuuuuggggghhhhh ... heebie jeebies!)


That is funny...I don't like spiders either. Creepy...especially the HUGE hairy ones.
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1368. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


XX/XX/92L
MARK
19.6N/58.5W
(re-located)
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Quoting LightningCharmer:
1:36AM EDT (0536 GMT)

What time is it now?
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Quoting AussieStorm:

How long till lift-off??
1:36AM EDT (0536 GMT)
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1364. centex
I get the feeling 92L another east coast type system, but south of Bill and maybe US landfall. But the next system will be eventually FL and or GOM. I'm basing this on steering a week out on eastern seaboard.
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1363. OBXNC
I want to go up to my rooftop deck here at the beach house to see if I can see the launch (if it happens 2nite), but there is a HUGE spider that has built a web directly across the steps leading up there.

I just can't do it. lol. I hate those things. it's the size of a football, i swear!

(okay, so more like the size of a quarter ... but might as well be a football - it's that sneaky kind that watches you and reacts as you make movements ..... uuuuuggggghhhhh ... heebie jeebies!)
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Quoting TampaSpin:


No ice storm in Florida......guess it could be as the extra warmth could create i guess more moisture and a warm layer for an ice storm to develop along the Northern Gulf Coast States.


We had an ice storm here in I wanna say 96 or 97 I think. Being here close to the GOM coast,we do not normally have ice storms...so just curious..
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Quoting Ossqss:


Howdy, zip code based flyby info, I don't think this one will help with the shuttle, but good to save :)

http://spaceweather.com/flybys/index.php

This one should help with the shuttle for East coasters... L8R

Space Shuttle Launch to Be Visible from East Coast

How long till lift-off??
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1360. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL CYCLONE HILDA (EP112009)
3:00 AM UTC August 25 2009
=============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Hilda (1001 hPa) located at 14.9N 147.1W or 545 east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii has sustained winds of 50 knots with a gust of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Gale/Storm-force Winds
==================
65 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: - 15.0N 148.2W - 55 knots (Tropical Storm)
24 HRS: - 14.9N 149.6W - 55 knots (Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: - 14.5N 152.3W - 60 knots (Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: - 14.3N 154.7W - 65 knots (SSHS-1 Cyclone)
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1359. OBXNC
Quoting AllStar17:


Don't get too worked up yet. It is still too early to say where this system will ultimately end up and how strong it would be.


Thanks! Not too worked up yet - no worries - might have overstated it ... but when you see several model runs that brings a storm into the worst possible place at the worst possible angle at the worst possible time for your location ... ugh.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


Well, I was just wondering if things are so hot now that come winter things would be very cold...like ice storm or something....I am new at all this so this may make no sense at all. Just a thought I had...


No ice storm in Florida......guess it could be as the extra warmth could create i guess more moisture and a warm layer for an ice storm to develop along the Northern Gulf Coast States.
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InfraRedLoop
Shear in the Caribbean has been prohibitive thus far. Maybe one of these will finally bring you some rain, Kman.
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I'm out for tonight. Good thing 93L is heading W as it is blowing up big time. Let's hope it doesn't leave any of that energy behind.

G'nite all
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15798
1355. centex
Quoting JLPR:


I agree
its looking better
Almost like it's put up a shield on NW side.
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1354. Ossqss
Quoting AussieStorm:

Watching them get strapped in right now
Link


Howdy, zip code based flyby info, I don't think this one will help with the shuttle, but good to save :)

http://spaceweather.com/flybys/index.php

This one should help with the shuttle for East coasters... L8R

Space Shuttle Launch to Be Visible from East Coast
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Quoting hunkerdown:
it gets auctioned off in early December :)


Lol!
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1352. geepy86
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Lightning increasing offshore of the Cape. :/ Looks like my trip to coca beach to watch the launch may be compromised.

Ha Ha just have to look out the back door.
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1351. OBXNC
okay ... just did some back-reading on the blog and saw StormW's post - is that all the models are calling for right now? A strong TS only? If so, we can handle that, although like I said we are very vulnerable with Bill's recent passage.
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Viewing range of the first eight minutes of the Space Shuttle night launch. (SPACE.com graphic made using Starry Night software based on information provided by Joe Rao)




Southeast U.S. coastline:
Anywhere north of Cape Canaveral, I suggest viewers initially concentrate on the south-southwest horizon (if you are south of the Cape, look low toward the north-northeast).
Mid-Atlantic region:
Look toward the south about 3 to 6 minutes after launch.
Northeast (Washington, Philadelphia, New York, Boston):
Concentrate your gaze low toward the south or south-southeast about 6 to 8 minutes after launch. Of course, as the shuttle gets closer, its azimuth very quickly swings over to the southeast, where in most cases, the point of maximum altitude occurs. I suspect most people will be scanning the horizon from south-southeast in the final couple of minutes of powered ascent . . . if so, you shouldn't miss out on sighting Discovery.
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1349. JLPR
Quoting TampaSpin:
Looks like shear is relaxing some over 92L



I agree
its looking better
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting TampaSpin:


When you say rough winter i guess your repling too Severe weather. Don't know there is anything that is an example of that but, it sure makes some sence with only a slight true difference in heat as the winter will cool it down.


Well, I was just wondering if things are so hot now that come winter things would be very cold...like ice storm or something....I am new at all this so this may make no sense at all. Just a thought I had...
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.