Bill is gone; Invest 92 pops up

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:08 PM GMT on August 24, 2009

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Hurricane Bill is no more. The hurricane swept past Canada's Nova Scotia province Sunday afternoon, then made landfall early this morning in southeastern Newfoundland as a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane. Bill's waves claimed two lives over the weekend, a 54-year old swimmer that drowned in Florida, and a 7-year old girl in Maine that got swept into the sea by a big wave. The first death of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season occurred on August 16, when a swimmer drowned in the rough surf from Tropical Storm Claudette at Pananma City Beach, FL.

Nova Scotia misses a direct hit
The center of Bill scooted parallel to the coast of Nova Scotia Sunday afternoon, and never quite came onshore. Since the storm's forward speed was so rapid--about 35 mph--this resulted in a highly asymmetric wind distribution. Since the top winds of a hurricane include the forward motion of the storm, Bill's top winds of 85 mph observed in the offshore, right front quadrant of the storm meant that the winds on the weak side of the storm, over Nova Scotia, were 85 mph minus 35 mph, or just 50 mph. Winds along most of the coast stayed below 39 mph, the borderline for tropical storm-force winds. The strongest winds measured in Canada were at Sable Island, which lies 150 miles offshore of Nova Scotia. Winds on the island hit 61 mph, gusting to 77 mph, between 4 - 5 pm ADT Sunday afternoon. A few islands along the Nova Scotia coast, such as Beaver Island and Hart Island, reported sustained winds of 39 - 40 mph. The big story for Nova Scotia was the waves from Bill. Buoy 44258 at the mouth of Halifax Harbor recorded significant wave heights of 29.5 feet and maximum wave heights of 49 feet as Bill passed 50 miles offshore. The buoy recorded top sustained winds of 35 mph, gusting to 51 mph. The waves combined with a 1.5 - 3 foot storm surge flooded many coastal roads. Buoy 44150, about 160 miles offshore of of the southwest tip of Nova Scotia, was in the east eyewall of Bill between 10 - 11 am ADT, and reported sustained winds of 62 mph, gusting to 85 mph, with significant wave heights of 44 feet. The buoy recorded a maximum wave height of 87 feet, according to Environment Canada. The highest official rain report on Nova Scotia was 2.6" (65 mm) at Yarmouth. Rainfall cause some localized flooding and road damage. Bill's winds cut power to about 40,000 people at the height of the storm. At Peggys Cove, three men were hit by a giant wave but were not hurt. A gift shop and attached home in the village were swept off of their foundation.

Newfoundland gets hit, but damage is minor
The southeast corner of Newfoundland took a direct hit from Bill. The storm made landfall early this morning as a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane. Top winds on the island were measured at Cape Race, which recorded sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 76 mph, between 1:30 and 2:30 am NDT. A storm surge of 1.2 meters (4 feet) was estimated by Environment Canada for Placentia Bay where Bill made landfall. Damage was minor on Newfoundland, with no major flooding reported. Bill dumped up to three inches of rain on Newfoundland.


Figure 1. The eye of Hurricane Bill on August 19 at 2157 UTC, from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying at 10,000 feet. Photo credit: Jack Parrish of NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center.

Kelvin-Helmholtz instability waves in the eye of Bill
Flight Director Jack Parrish of NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center snapped a cool photo in the eye of Hurricane Bill on Friday, showing the existence of a Kelvin-Helmholtz instability wave (Figure 1). The photo was taken on August 19 at 2157 UTC, from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying at 10,000 feet. The photo is taken looking WNW towards the eyewall. The towering clouds of the eyewall extend up to 50,000 - 55,000 feet in the photo, and the ocean surface is not visible, due to stratocumulus clouds covering the bottom of the eye. The center of the photo shows that the top of one of these stratocumulus clouds has a feature that looks like a breaking wave in the ocean. Well, that is an example of a breaking wave in the atmosphere known as a Kelvin-Helmholtz instability wave. The atmosphere behaves as a fluid, and thus has wave-like motions. When there is a sudden change of wind speed along the top of a cloud (wind shear), the flow can become unstable and cause breaking waves to form. One can see Kelvin-Helmholtz in the sky several times per year, and several alert wunderphotographers have uploaded photos of these waves over the years. However, it is uncommon to see these waves in the stratocumulus clouds covering the eye of a hurricane.


Figure 2. Water vapor satellite image for 8:15 am EDT 8/24/09. A tropical wave is approaching the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, but is running into high wind shear from an upper-level cold low to the west of it. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

Tropical wave approaching Lesser Antilles becomes Invest 92
A tropical wave with a moderate amount of shower activity is moving west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph and is approaching the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. This wave was designated "Invest 92" (92L) by NHC this morning. The wave is under about 20 - 30 knots of wind shear due the strong upper-level winds from the west. These winds are being created by the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level cold-cored low north of Puerto Rico (Figure 2). This low is expected to move west-southwest and slowly weaken over the next two days, allowing shear to drop to the moderate 10 - 20 knot range beginning Tuesday night, according to the SHIPS model. By Wednesday, the upper low is predicted to be weak enough and far enough away from 92L that it will have a chance to develop. Most of the models show some degree of development of 92L by Thursday, when it is expected to be a few hundred miles off the coast of South Carolina. This wave could turn northward and give a wet weekend to New England, though it is too early to be confident of this. NHC is giving 92L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. The upper-level low will create plenty of wind shear and dump cold, dry air into 92L over the next two days, so Wednesday is probably the earliest we can expect the system to begin organizing into a tropical depression.

Several models predict the development of a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Beach Wall wave 1 (BeachBecky)
Waves from Hurricane Bill crashing on the sea wall during high tide in Lynn, MA
Beach Wall wave 1
Hurricane Bill Waves Day 2 # 9 (RIWXPhoto)
Hurricane Bill Waves Day 2 # 9
Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities (btangy)
Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities to the S of Boston. Wavy like pattern in clouds is caused by a difference in winds between the cloud layer and the layer just above (called wind shear). The manifestation of this at the top of the altostratus deck is quite a beautiful and rare sight!
Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities

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Quoting Floodman:


I am German; naturlaized an American citizen in 1970...Schleppangel is the word my oma used when trolls, goblins or the SS (when she spoke of WWII) were referenced...LOL

Huh. I had an oma, too. From Dortmund.
I actually have a piano that belonged to her parents and survived unscathed as the house collapsed around it due to the British bombing raids.
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NHC is slow today for some reason.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:
That ULL interacting with the invest sure looks impressive right about now:


Not really. There is just too much wind shear going on right now. Panama disturbance has better or more favorable conditions with wind shear 5-10 knots, favorable easterly flow, land interaction within the next 24 hours is the only detriment for this AOI. Flow looks too strong on an E-W basis for anything but land interaction.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
Quoting Grothar:


How erudite!! Impressed. But in Norwegian, Swedish and German the word is "troll" meaning a goblin. When used in the context here we say.

German: Der Unruhestifter
Norwegian: en bråkstake
Italian: il istigatore

Now we can all insult each other and not be offended.

The German word Der Schleppangel is colloquial speech. You must have spent time there to know those words. They are not common usage. Very impressed!! We better get back to the weather discussion, before we both get slammed.


I am German; naturalized an American citizen in 1970...Schleppangel is the word my oma used when trolls, goblins or the SS (when she spoke of WWII) were referenced...LOL
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Sorry for that double post... not sure what's up with the site... hehe.
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Another tidbit about the GJs:

"The film was captured in July 2008 during Tropical Storm Cristobel, in a field near to Duke University’s campus. The footage is particularly significant as the jet rose to a height of around 65km compared to other sightings at much lower heights."

Errr, they could have rather easily figured out the correct spelling of TS Cristobal.
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...
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12Z NOGAPS... also on board with NAM stalling solution in the Bahamas and awaiting for a steering pattern to get established.

So far I'm quite surprised that models except for GFS have been agreeing with NAM solution on CONUS trough/ridges for this 12Z run.
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That ULL interacting with the invest sure looks impressive right about now:
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The disturbance north of Panama has more favorable conditions due to an upper level anticyclone residing within the area. The banding does not appear sufficient enough or organized enough to believe that there will development of the system before land interaction. It is unclear how much land interaction there will be an whether or not a surface low can develop before this interaction begins. If it can start heading northwest within a weakness in the 700-850mb level and follow this weakness we may be in business with this area, as it tracks into the NW Caribbean Sea. If this occurs then we could have a dangerous situation on our hands.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
Quoting kmanislander:


The steering does not look fast to me but it is close to land and may well go ashore unless it lifts to the NW as called for by the NAM


I looked at the CIMMS charts. There is a weakness as you suggest over the eastern GOM, but the flow as seen on satellite and the TPW product suggests that the flow down where potential 93L is hasn't felt the weakness (there may be narrow west-east oriented ridging to its north)

I will say that it continues to look better on satellite and shear is favorable so maybe it will reach TD status yet before reaching land...

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If there was not a Stong Westerly steering in the BOC and the Southern Caribbean we would have more action.........but all will be going inland.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
2:00 out. No new crayon circles
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Quoting lizrod43:
everyone in Florida relax...Crist will pray away any storm. He's on top of it.
what a guy!


Don't you mean "Pay" away any storm, lol.
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Hmmm, GFS, and ensemble mean, pretty well whiffed on the forecasted MJO spike so far. Keep up the bad work! I'll take that quiet period we were promised now.

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Quoting btwntx08:
A.5 votes
b.0
c.1
A. wins

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12Z NOGAPS... also on board with NAM stalling solution in the Bahamas and awaiting for a steering patter to get established.

So far I'm quite surprised that models except for GFS have been agreeing with NAM solution on CONUS trough/ridges for this 12Z run.
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Please tell me SWCarribean disturbance has no chance of getting in GOM if something developes.
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Quoting Floodman:


Three langauges, huh?

duende (Spanish)
schleppangel (German)
sleeplijn (Dutch)



How erudite!! Impressed. But in Norwegian, Swedish and German the word is "troll" meaning a goblin. When used in the context here we say.

German: Der Unruhestifter
Norwegian: en bråkstake
Italian: il istigatore

Now we can all insult each other and not be offended.

The German word Der Schleppangel is colloquial speech. You must have spent time there to know those words. They are not common usage. Very impressed!! We better get back to the weather discussion, before we both get slammed.
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Call up the pew center. I am sure they would be glad to publish it.
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everyone in Florida relax...Crist will pray away any storm. He's on top of it.
what a guy!
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haven had time to look at models. where would the panama storm go if it developed?
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Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
One yellow circle for 92L. The AOI in the Caribbean really isn't showing signs of developing. I am really interested to see if the SW Caribbean disturbance moves NW instead of due west which it is currently doing right now. I am not too confident it develops before hitting land. No real signs of organization. Conditions are favorable, but land interaction should keep it at bay for now.


I disagree, there is more vort than 92L and the models develop it. It actually has a better chance than 92L.
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ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 24

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -56.10 LAT: 16.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1010.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -57.90 LAT: 17.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 39.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -59.30 LAT: 18.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 56.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -60.80 LAT: 19.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1003.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 57.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -62.30 LAT: 21.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -64.20 LAT: 23.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -65.40 LAT: 24.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -66.20 LAT: 25.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -67.30 LAT: 26.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1011.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 34.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -68.40 LAT: 27.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1010.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -69.40 LAT: 28.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1011.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 23.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -69.70 LAT: 28.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 21.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -69.90 LAT: 29.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1011.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 22.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -70.20 LAT: 30.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -70.30 LAT: 30.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1011.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 22.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -70.20 LAT: 31.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -70.10 LAT: 32.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1011.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 24.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -70.10 LAT: 33.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 26.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -69.70 LAT: 34.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 31.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -69.30 LAT: 35.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -68.70 LAT: 37.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1005.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -68.30 LAT: 38.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 33.00
FORECAST WAS RUN COUPLED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD...

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


Typical HWRF initial intensity buidup. Wish they would get the upgrade installed.
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It looks like the Panama wave has some good banding features, as well. If it does not move onshore, this could be a serious player.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
One yellow circle for 92L. The AOI in the Caribbean really isn't showing signs of developing. I am really interested to see if the SW Caribbean disturbance moves NW instead of due west which it is currently doing right now. I am not too confident it develops before hitting land. No real signs of organization. Conditions are favorable, but land interaction should keep it at bay for now.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 248 Comments: 3970
We interrupt the blog poll for a taste of the neato. (You're welcome)

Who here heard of "gigantic jets" until about 0.5 seconds ago? Not me.

"With a very lucky shot, scientists have captured a one-second image and the electrical fingerprint of huge lightning that flowed 40 miles upward from the top of a storm.

These rarely seen, highly charged meteorological events are known as gigantic jets, and they flash up to the lower levels of space, or ionosphere.

While they don't occur every time there is lightning, they are substantially larger than their downward striking cousins.

"Despite poor viewing conditions as a result of a full moon and a hazy atmosphere, we were able to clearly capture the gigantic jet," said study leader Steven Cummer, an electrical and computer engineer at Duke University in North Carolina.

A paper reporting Cummer's results appears online today in the journal Nature Geoscience.

Images of gigantic jets have only been recorded on five occasions since 2001. The Duke University team caught a one-second view and magnetic field measurements that are now giving scientists a much clearer understanding of these rare events.
"
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2009-08/nsf-lmi082109.php

Additional details about GJs here: http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap070829.html

And a video, with slow motion of the first GJs caught on camera in CONUS from 2007: http://www.okdig.com/images.net/astro/20070820/20070820_sprites.wmv

Never did I think about lightning from clouds to ionosphere. Wonder if that has any implications for aviation...like when they usually think they are just dandy flying over the convection. Probably not as they are set up to take lightning when they are in the thick of it (right?)
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92L getting sheared. Panama Wave has anticyclone. Not good.
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I just completed a Tropical Update covering Invest 92L if anyone would like to view.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Appears the 12Z CMC is agreeing with NAM in stalling it briefly in the Bahamas as it gathers strength and awaits a steering flow to take shape... as there's appears to be a COL region wanting to take shape E of FL into the Bahamas region.
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C. One yellow circle for 92L.
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Quoting btwntx08:
poll time
what the two will have at 2 pm

A.yellow 92l,yellow aoi sw carb
B.yellow aoi sw carb ,orange 92l
C.one yellow 92l


Probably A or C.
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Quoting btwntx08:
poll time
what the two will have at 2 pm

A.yellow 92l,yellow aoi sw carb
B.yellow aoi sw carb ,orange 92l
C.one yellow 92l
That seams more likely
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Quoting Hurricane009:
I think we will see 93L at 2:00 pm today. May become Tropical Storm Danny, and 92L may become Ericka. Tropics sure are getting a whole lot busier as we head into the peak of the season


It's typical...
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Post #218- Too funny!
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Quoting btwntx08:
poll time
what the two will have at 2 pm

A.yellow 92l,yellow aoi sw carb
B.yellow aoi sw carb ,orange 92l
C.one yellow 92l


I would put A, but I think the NHC will stick with C
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


Yeah. I think it may also be tagged. I'm not sure with the fast steering flow that it will have time to develop before running into Costa Rica. Looks dead east to west to me so I doubt it reaches the Gulf of Honduras. Maybe it will get going in the EPAC...


I see what you are saying, thats the GFS solution into the East Pacific. NOGAPS still (12Z) wants to take it up to the Yucatan.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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