Bill is gone; Invest 92 pops up

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:08 PM GMT on August 24, 2009

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Hurricane Bill is no more. The hurricane swept past Canada's Nova Scotia province Sunday afternoon, then made landfall early this morning in southeastern Newfoundland as a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane. Bill's waves claimed two lives over the weekend, a 54-year old swimmer that drowned in Florida, and a 7-year old girl in Maine that got swept into the sea by a big wave. The first death of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season occurred on August 16, when a swimmer drowned in the rough surf from Tropical Storm Claudette at Pananma City Beach, FL.

Nova Scotia misses a direct hit
The center of Bill scooted parallel to the coast of Nova Scotia Sunday afternoon, and never quite came onshore. Since the storm's forward speed was so rapid--about 35 mph--this resulted in a highly asymmetric wind distribution. Since the top winds of a hurricane include the forward motion of the storm, Bill's top winds of 85 mph observed in the offshore, right front quadrant of the storm meant that the winds on the weak side of the storm, over Nova Scotia, were 85 mph minus 35 mph, or just 50 mph. Winds along most of the coast stayed below 39 mph, the borderline for tropical storm-force winds. The strongest winds measured in Canada were at Sable Island, which lies 150 miles offshore of Nova Scotia. Winds on the island hit 61 mph, gusting to 77 mph, between 4 - 5 pm ADT Sunday afternoon. A few islands along the Nova Scotia coast, such as Beaver Island and Hart Island, reported sustained winds of 39 - 40 mph. The big story for Nova Scotia was the waves from Bill. Buoy 44258 at the mouth of Halifax Harbor recorded significant wave heights of 29.5 feet and maximum wave heights of 49 feet as Bill passed 50 miles offshore. The buoy recorded top sustained winds of 35 mph, gusting to 51 mph. The waves combined with a 1.5 - 3 foot storm surge flooded many coastal roads. Buoy 44150, about 160 miles offshore of of the southwest tip of Nova Scotia, was in the east eyewall of Bill between 10 - 11 am ADT, and reported sustained winds of 62 mph, gusting to 85 mph, with significant wave heights of 44 feet. The buoy recorded a maximum wave height of 87 feet, according to Environment Canada. The highest official rain report on Nova Scotia was 2.6" (65 mm) at Yarmouth. Rainfall cause some localized flooding and road damage. Bill's winds cut power to about 40,000 people at the height of the storm. At Peggys Cove, three men were hit by a giant wave but were not hurt. A gift shop and attached home in the village were swept off of their foundation.

Newfoundland gets hit, but damage is minor
The southeast corner of Newfoundland took a direct hit from Bill. The storm made landfall early this morning as a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane. Top winds on the island were measured at Cape Race, which recorded sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 76 mph, between 1:30 and 2:30 am NDT. A storm surge of 1.2 meters (4 feet) was estimated by Environment Canada for Placentia Bay where Bill made landfall. Damage was minor on Newfoundland, with no major flooding reported. Bill dumped up to three inches of rain on Newfoundland.


Figure 1. The eye of Hurricane Bill on August 19 at 2157 UTC, from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying at 10,000 feet. Photo credit: Jack Parrish of NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center.

Kelvin-Helmholtz instability waves in the eye of Bill
Flight Director Jack Parrish of NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center snapped a cool photo in the eye of Hurricane Bill on Friday, showing the existence of a Kelvin-Helmholtz instability wave (Figure 1). The photo was taken on August 19 at 2157 UTC, from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying at 10,000 feet. The photo is taken looking WNW towards the eyewall. The towering clouds of the eyewall extend up to 50,000 - 55,000 feet in the photo, and the ocean surface is not visible, due to stratocumulus clouds covering the bottom of the eye. The center of the photo shows that the top of one of these stratocumulus clouds has a feature that looks like a breaking wave in the ocean. Well, that is an example of a breaking wave in the atmosphere known as a Kelvin-Helmholtz instability wave. The atmosphere behaves as a fluid, and thus has wave-like motions. When there is a sudden change of wind speed along the top of a cloud (wind shear), the flow can become unstable and cause breaking waves to form. One can see Kelvin-Helmholtz in the sky several times per year, and several alert wunderphotographers have uploaded photos of these waves over the years. However, it is uncommon to see these waves in the stratocumulus clouds covering the eye of a hurricane.


Figure 2. Water vapor satellite image for 8:15 am EDT 8/24/09. A tropical wave is approaching the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, but is running into high wind shear from an upper-level cold low to the west of it. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

Tropical wave approaching Lesser Antilles becomes Invest 92
A tropical wave with a moderate amount of shower activity is moving west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph and is approaching the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. This wave was designated "Invest 92" (92L) by NHC this morning. The wave is under about 20 - 30 knots of wind shear due the strong upper-level winds from the west. These winds are being created by the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level cold-cored low north of Puerto Rico (Figure 2). This low is expected to move west-southwest and slowly weaken over the next two days, allowing shear to drop to the moderate 10 - 20 knot range beginning Tuesday night, according to the SHIPS model. By Wednesday, the upper low is predicted to be weak enough and far enough away from 92L that it will have a chance to develop. Most of the models show some degree of development of 92L by Thursday, when it is expected to be a few hundred miles off the coast of South Carolina. This wave could turn northward and give a wet weekend to New England, though it is too early to be confident of this. NHC is giving 92L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. The upper-level low will create plenty of wind shear and dump cold, dry air into 92L over the next two days, so Wednesday is probably the earliest we can expect the system to begin organizing into a tropical depression.

Several models predict the development of a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Beach Wall wave 1 (BeachBecky)
Waves from Hurricane Bill crashing on the sea wall during high tide in Lynn, MA
Beach Wall wave 1
Hurricane Bill Waves Day 2 # 9 (RIWXPhoto)
Hurricane Bill Waves Day 2 # 9
Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities (btangy)
Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities to the S of Boston. Wavy like pattern in clouds is caused by a difference in winds between the cloud layer and the layer just above (called wind shear). The manifestation of this at the top of the altostratus deck is quite a beautiful and rare sight!
Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities

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797. Relix
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 242152
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
555 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO ADD DISCUSSION OF AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN.

UPDATED...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
795. Relix
000
ABNT20 KNHC 242152
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
555 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO ADD DISCUSSION OF AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN.

UPDATED...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Where the little blowup of thunderstorms is
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
removed as dupe.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 242152
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
555 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2009


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO ADD DISCUSSION OF AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN.

UPDATED...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
My local newspaper printed an article where someone called Hurricane Bill and Hurricane Bob "disappointing" hurricanes. Link

I sent this today as a letter to the Editors. I wonder if they'll print it.

Dear Sirs:

RE: August 23, 2009 article "Hurricane Bill restricts Cape and Islands recreation"

I take issue with the comments of Mr. Mitrokostas re: Hurricane Bob being a "disappointing" hurricane. Perhaps where Mr. Mitrokostas was, Bob was "disappointing", but from where I was I was scared and Hurricane Bob was more than "power outages" and "wind outside". Bob's storm surge was significant, and several areas in Rhode Island, Buzzards Bay, Cape Cod and Martha's Vineyard reported extensive wind and storm-surge damage not seen since Hurricane Carol in 1954. Hurricane Bob left eighteen people dead and $2.8 billion dollars in damage. In Falmouth the Admiralty Apartments had the roof blown off. In Provincetown 38 boats were sunk by the high storm surge with wind causing building damage as well. Motels lost their roofs in Yarmouth and Truro. Route 6A and all of the Cape were littered with downed trees and power lines and people's lives were disrupted for weeks. This storm did not hit us directly and was only a Cat 2 when it hit, but "disappointing"?

What is a "disappointing hurricane"? One that doesn't cause billions of dollars in damage? Does a hurricane like Katrina have to hit Cape Cod in order for people to respect the power of these storms? I think the miracle of Hurricane Bill is that it only caused 3 deaths, and missed so many people and places that would have been devastated by a direct hit. I for one was not "disappointed" but happy that it passed us by. I know people who have been in Category 4 and 5 hurricanes, and they paint a picture more horrifying than anything I can imagine. It's not an exciting thing when a major storm system is headed for the Cape. It's a scary thing, and should be. Let's all be careful what we wish for. And kudos to the officials that took this storm seriously; closing the beaches saved lives. If Bill had taken a slight turn Westward it would have been a much different scenario. My thanks to the NHC and NOAA for their great work.

Sincerely

Me
Member Since: August 15, 2004 Posts: 23 Comments: 380
Low level vorticity product from PSU:

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
NHC's putting it up now, I believe. Refreshed and the TWO graphic has ZERO circles, atm.
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788. 7544
Quoting Eagle300:


In the developing systems isn't it common to have them have new bursts of convection and them reform their center there?


yeap it cold happen here as we blog its really bursting out at this hour and might be leaving the ull it was attached to i think
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
I still think the center of 93L is east of 80W
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Quoting Drakoen:
The models that recurve 92L early on are relying on the trough that is over the eastern seaboard. The models that take 92L farther west have the system coming under the ridge behind the aforementioned trough and then getting pulled northward by another trough. Complex situation.


I strongly concur
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Quoting JLPR:


yep the center can relocate itself, but the question is does 92L have a defined center?


by looking at then satellite loops, it doesn't really look like it. Well at least that I can tell.
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Why do the 12Z CMC and NGP look so scary? Link and Link
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
has been ignored by everyone

is in shocked

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Quoting AllStar17:
Wow! 93L is born. 2 newly-formed invests in 1 day. I am not so sold on 93L moving due west, I thought there was a weakness that could pull the system north through the Yucatan channel. (kman said that earlier)


it would have to go about due north starting now.
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780. IKE
Quoting LUCARIO:
93 is just a trick
they dont want us to pay attention to MONSTER danny
cat 5 hitting texas???


You're a trick.

See ya....*poof*
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
778. JLPR
Quoting Eagle300:


In the developing systems isn't it common to have them have new bursts of convection and them reform their center there?


yep the center can relocate itself, but the question is does 92L have a defined center?
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Quoting Eagle300:


In the developing systems isn't it common to have them have new bursts of convection and them reform their center there?


Yes
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Quoting LUCARIO:
93 isn't important, its all about Danny


Oh, please!
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Quoting 7544:
nice burst going on with 92l could it be the ull is trying to move away faster leaving 92l behind to form further are they seperating from each other at this hour


In the developing systems isn't it common to have them have new bursts of convection and them reform their center there?
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93L not yet on the NAVY Site, however
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Quoting LUCARIO:
Danny is going to be a cat 5 hitting texas

danny is the 2009 ike

92 will go WEST!

I see wrobble wrest


wrobble, wrobble
Shake it, Shake it
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93 isn't important, its all about Danny
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Wow! 93L is born. 2 newly-formed invests in 1 day. I am not so sold on 93L moving due west, I thought there was a weakness that could pull the system north through the Yucatan channel. (kman said that earlier)
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Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
767. JLPR
Quoting Relix:
93L on Wu page?


yep the Central America disturbance
at least it is a invest now ...apparently

Let me check the navy page xD
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766. 7544
nice burst going on with 92l could it be the ull is trying to move away faster leaving 92l behind to form further are they seperating from each other at this hour
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932009) 20090824 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090824 1800 090825 0600 090825 1800 090826 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 79.2W 11.6N 82.3W 12.2N 85.1W 12.5N 87.6W
BAMD 11.3N 79.2W 11.7N 82.3W 12.2N 85.2W 12.6N 87.9W
BAMM 11.3N 79.2W 11.4N 82.6W 11.7N 85.7W 11.9N 88.3W
LBAR 11.3N 79.2W 11.8N 83.1W 12.7N 87.1W 13.7N 90.9W
SHIP 20KTS 27KTS 37KTS 46KTS
DSHP 20KTS 27KTS 27KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090826 1800 090827 1800 090828 1800 090829 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 90.2W 13.3N 94.8W 13.7N 99.0W 15.4N 103.7W
BAMD 13.0N 90.3W 13.2N 95.0W 13.8N 99.7W 16.0N 104.1W
BAMM 12.1N 90.8W 12.0N 95.3W 12.3N 100.0W 13.9N 104.4W
LBAR 14.8N 94.4W 16.5N 99.4W 18.9N 102.1W 21.4N 102.7W
SHIP 56KTS 76KTS 89KTS 110KTS
DSHP 47KTS 67KTS 80KTS 100KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 79.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 24KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 74.0W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 24KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 69.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
Quoting Drakoen:
The models that recurve 92L early on are relying on the trough that is over the eastern seaboard. The models that take 92L farther west have the system coming under the ridge behind the aforementioned trough and then getting pulled northward by another trough. Complex situation.Quoting hydrus:
There is one word that sums up the tropics for next 168 hours, - trough.


I think i have to disagree with this statement. I really don't think this system is going to get caught by that first trough. Its under strong influence from high pressure.
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Danny is going to be a cat 5 hitting texas

danny is the 2009 ike

92 will go WEST!

I see wrobble wrest
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760. Relix
93L on Wu page?
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Hello.

92L is having a good blow up of convection at 18.5 and 56.5.
That's displaced from where they currently say the center is.

link
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RED AT 8 O CLOCK

DANNY IS HERE
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757. JLPR
Quoting Seastep:
Please correct me if I am wrong (colorblind), but this shows 40kt+ winds, no?

Link


=O .... impressive
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It appears like a considerable blow-up of convection in the lower right of 92L. Is this where the low is expected to form. I believe I may be confusing the old ULL to the NW of the feature. Each frame on the NOAA image shows it growing bigger.
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The models that recurve 92L early on are relying on the trough that is over the eastern seaboard. The models that take 92L farther west have the system coming under the ridge behind the aforementioned trough and then getting pulled northward by another trough. Complex situation.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
Quoting Seastep:


It can be done direct. Can't do it by copying the address bar. Just have to right-click the graphic and "copy image location." After pasting into the image box, remove the "s" in the end of https://. Apparently WU won't accept an https, but can be worked around. Hope this helps.

It does, thank. On this blog, would I be considered a dweeb or a dope for not being able to do a simple link???
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There is one word that sums up the tropics for next 168 hours, - trough.
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Quoting Vortex95:


yep, though i can't believe it either.


Actually I think the darkest color is around 50 knts
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Please correct me if I am wrong (colorblind), but this shows 40kt+ winds, no?

Link
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Quoting JupiterFL:


Hey Press, you missing a hat?

Funny hahaha! If I didn't wear a hat I'd look 60 instead of 20!
Member Since: September 3, 2007 Posts: 3 Comments: 1519
Quoting largeeyes:
NC Beach wedding next Friday(Sep 4th). Looking forward to some models that far out.


beach + wedding + models
Sounds like a good time.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.