Bill is gone; Invest 92 pops up

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:08 PM GMT on August 24, 2009

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Hurricane Bill is no more. The hurricane swept past Canada's Nova Scotia province Sunday afternoon, then made landfall early this morning in southeastern Newfoundland as a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane. Bill's waves claimed two lives over the weekend, a 54-year old swimmer that drowned in Florida, and a 7-year old girl in Maine that got swept into the sea by a big wave. The first death of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season occurred on August 16, when a swimmer drowned in the rough surf from Tropical Storm Claudette at Pananma City Beach, FL.

Nova Scotia misses a direct hit
The center of Bill scooted parallel to the coast of Nova Scotia Sunday afternoon, and never quite came onshore. Since the storm's forward speed was so rapid--about 35 mph--this resulted in a highly asymmetric wind distribution. Since the top winds of a hurricane include the forward motion of the storm, Bill's top winds of 85 mph observed in the offshore, right front quadrant of the storm meant that the winds on the weak side of the storm, over Nova Scotia, were 85 mph minus 35 mph, or just 50 mph. Winds along most of the coast stayed below 39 mph, the borderline for tropical storm-force winds. The strongest winds measured in Canada were at Sable Island, which lies 150 miles offshore of Nova Scotia. Winds on the island hit 61 mph, gusting to 77 mph, between 4 - 5 pm ADT Sunday afternoon. A few islands along the Nova Scotia coast, such as Beaver Island and Hart Island, reported sustained winds of 39 - 40 mph. The big story for Nova Scotia was the waves from Bill. Buoy 44258 at the mouth of Halifax Harbor recorded significant wave heights of 29.5 feet and maximum wave heights of 49 feet as Bill passed 50 miles offshore. The buoy recorded top sustained winds of 35 mph, gusting to 51 mph. The waves combined with a 1.5 - 3 foot storm surge flooded many coastal roads. Buoy 44150, about 160 miles offshore of of the southwest tip of Nova Scotia, was in the east eyewall of Bill between 10 - 11 am ADT, and reported sustained winds of 62 mph, gusting to 85 mph, with significant wave heights of 44 feet. The buoy recorded a maximum wave height of 87 feet, according to Environment Canada. The highest official rain report on Nova Scotia was 2.6" (65 mm) at Yarmouth. Rainfall cause some localized flooding and road damage. Bill's winds cut power to about 40,000 people at the height of the storm. At Peggys Cove, three men were hit by a giant wave but were not hurt. A gift shop and attached home in the village were swept off of their foundation.

Newfoundland gets hit, but damage is minor
The southeast corner of Newfoundland took a direct hit from Bill. The storm made landfall early this morning as a borderline tropical storm/Category 1 hurricane. Top winds on the island were measured at Cape Race, which recorded sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 76 mph, between 1:30 and 2:30 am NDT. A storm surge of 1.2 meters (4 feet) was estimated by Environment Canada for Placentia Bay where Bill made landfall. Damage was minor on Newfoundland, with no major flooding reported. Bill dumped up to three inches of rain on Newfoundland.


Figure 1. The eye of Hurricane Bill on August 19 at 2157 UTC, from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying at 10,000 feet. Photo credit: Jack Parrish of NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center.

Kelvin-Helmholtz instability waves in the eye of Bill
Flight Director Jack Parrish of NOAA's Aircraft Operations Center snapped a cool photo in the eye of Hurricane Bill on Friday, showing the existence of a Kelvin-Helmholtz instability wave (Figure 1). The photo was taken on August 19 at 2157 UTC, from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft flying at 10,000 feet. The photo is taken looking WNW towards the eyewall. The towering clouds of the eyewall extend up to 50,000 - 55,000 feet in the photo, and the ocean surface is not visible, due to stratocumulus clouds covering the bottom of the eye. The center of the photo shows that the top of one of these stratocumulus clouds has a feature that looks like a breaking wave in the ocean. Well, that is an example of a breaking wave in the atmosphere known as a Kelvin-Helmholtz instability wave. The atmosphere behaves as a fluid, and thus has wave-like motions. When there is a sudden change of wind speed along the top of a cloud (wind shear), the flow can become unstable and cause breaking waves to form. One can see Kelvin-Helmholtz in the sky several times per year, and several alert wunderphotographers have uploaded photos of these waves over the years. However, it is uncommon to see these waves in the stratocumulus clouds covering the eye of a hurricane.


Figure 2. Water vapor satellite image for 8:15 am EDT 8/24/09. A tropical wave is approaching the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, but is running into high wind shear from an upper-level cold low to the west of it. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

Tropical wave approaching Lesser Antilles becomes Invest 92
A tropical wave with a moderate amount of shower activity is moving west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph and is approaching the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. This wave was designated "Invest 92" (92L) by NHC this morning. The wave is under about 20 - 30 knots of wind shear due the strong upper-level winds from the west. These winds are being created by the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level cold-cored low north of Puerto Rico (Figure 2). This low is expected to move west-southwest and slowly weaken over the next two days, allowing shear to drop to the moderate 10 - 20 knot range beginning Tuesday night, according to the SHIPS model. By Wednesday, the upper low is predicted to be weak enough and far enough away from 92L that it will have a chance to develop. Most of the models show some degree of development of 92L by Thursday, when it is expected to be a few hundred miles off the coast of South Carolina. This wave could turn northward and give a wet weekend to New England, though it is too early to be confident of this. NHC is giving 92L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday morning. The upper-level low will create plenty of wind shear and dump cold, dry air into 92L over the next two days, so Wednesday is probably the earliest we can expect the system to begin organizing into a tropical depression.

Several models predict the development of a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa late this week.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Beach Wall wave 1 (BeachBecky)
Waves from Hurricane Bill crashing on the sea wall during high tide in Lynn, MA
Beach Wall wave 1
Hurricane Bill Waves Day 2 # 9 (RIWXPhoto)
Hurricane Bill Waves Day 2 # 9
Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities (btangy)
Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities to the S of Boston. Wavy like pattern in clouds is caused by a difference in winds between the cloud layer and the layer just above (called wind shear). The manifestation of this at the top of the altostratus deck is quite a beautiful and rare sight!
Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities

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Looks similar to the pre-Noel disturbance.


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Quoting BoynSea:
1103. BahaHurican 1:18 AM GMT on August 25, 2009

Yes, that's what I'm thinking also. But by Thursday, it should be a whole new ball game as to track and strength. Still think more North, but it's too early to tell for sure.

We DO have to pay our dues, I guess, and I'd rather have two Cat 1's , than ONE Cat2.

Thanks.

Boynsea

Agreed. I have to admit I'm not up to the major storm major damage thing this year. I know we gotta take our lumps. Just hope our lumps soft ones....

G'nite!
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Don't need another Ike....still dealing with that.....but South Central Texas could sure use some rain!
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Considering the unusually cold fronts moving off the EC in the past weeks (including the present cold front), it seems that should continue to keep the subtropical ridge east of it's normal position, so, that would continue to favor Bertha 08 type tracks...
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1144. amd
latest satellite pictures suggest that the wave associated with 92L may already begin to be separating from the ULL.

Looks like shear is no where near as bad at the southern end of the wave compared to the northern end which is still being heavily sheared.

SInce the mid-level and low-level vorticity are disjointed, it will probably take at least 24 hours for organization to occur, but I have a feeling we will have a developing tropical cyclone by wednesday morning. JMHO.

Link
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Heres my prediction...


Theres a 99% chance that when the models show this going toward Florida you completely change your tune.
my chances of written upon what models are saying.... if i had to pick where it will go i couldn't, its too far and not even a TD.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Heres my prediction...


Theres a 99% chance that when the models show this going toward Florida you completely change your tune.


LOL! Right!
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5364
Some hedged bets here....



I'm out ya'll. Gotta another early one tomorrow (blech), so gotta get some rest tonight.

Will check in early in the a.m. to see how these invests deal with D-max.
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Quoting AllStar17:


Uh-Oh! If he says this is out to sea, that means it will hit the CONUS!
roflmao!
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Quoting canesrule1:
Brand new official chances for 92L, 9:30 PM EDT:

Florida: 4%

Georgia: 2%

South Carolina: 6%

North Carolina: 2%

More northerly than North Carolina: 1%

Bermuda: 18%

Out-To-Sea: 67%


Heres my prediction...


Theres a 99% chance that when the models show this going toward the CONUS you completely change your tune.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Sorry KIM and everyone.....i stepped away to watch the RAYS game.....kinda rude of me not to sign off. Sorry.


No problem. Enjoy.
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Quoting extreme236:


Well he said Bill was going to florida too lol


Uh-Oh! If he says this is out to sea, that means it will hit the CONUS!
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5364
Quoting extreme236:


Well he said Bill was going to florida too lol
lmao, hey hey hey, that was just my gut feeling, lol!
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Actually the most recent NAM is indicating a close encounter.
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1133. WxLogic
Quoting kmanislander:
Is 13N 32W a sleeper ??

Good evening folks


Good evening...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5170
Quoting AllStar17:


Wow! 91% chance it goes out to sea! Talk about a bold prediction. This system has not even formed an LLC yet, and you have all ready kissed it out to sea. Premature, to say the least! It is STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL where this system will ultimately end up. How many times have you seen models change?
remember my chances are given according to the latest models not what i think, so i really don't know if i will be correct or incorrect.
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Quoting KimberlyB:


Thanks for the new update Tim.

I almost didn't recognize you with the new avatar. lol


Sorry KIM and everyone.....i stepped away to watch the RAYS game.....kinda rude of me not to sign off. Sorry.
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20510
Brand new official chances for 92L, 9:30 PM EDT:

Florida: 4%

Georgia: 2%

South Carolina: 6%

North Carolina: 2%

More northerly than North Carolina: 1%

Bermuda: 18%

Out-To-Sea: 67%
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Quoting AllStar17:


Wow! 91% chance it goes out to sea! Talk about a bold prediction. This system has not even formed an LLC yet, and you have all ready kissed it out to sea. Premature, to say the least! It is STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL where this system will ultimately end up. How many times have you seen models change?


Well he said Bill was going to florida too lol
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1128. 7544
Quoting KimberlyB:


link?


Link
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1127. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting CaneAddict:


Yeah been busy with alot and like I said during Bill I would have been here but my laptop took a crap.
had some minor problems myself addict i got this tower soup up with a fortress and 260 gb ram somein try to take out my system during bill that won't happen again
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59586
This invest is still FAR away from the CONUS...let's give it at least a few more days before we can count on the models being accurate or not.
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1125. BoynSea
1103. BahaHurican 1:18 AM GMT on August 25, 2009

Yes, that's what I'm thinking also. But by Thursday, it should be a whole new ball game as to track and strength. Still think more North, but it's too early to tell for sure.

We DO have to pay our dues, I guess, and I'd rather have two Cat 1's , than ONE Cat2.

Thanks.

Boynsea

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Quoting 7544:
looks like we have two blobs now did 92l get a twin infront of it


link?
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Quoting canesrule1:
My new chances:

Eastern Seaboard: 9%

Recurvature (Fish or Bermuda impact): 91%

00z models all of them recurving:



More 00z models:



00z early intensity models:



Wow! 91% chance it goes out to sea! Talk about a bold prediction. This system has not even formed an LLC yet, and you have all ready kissed it out to sea. Premature, to say the least! It is STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL where this system will ultimately end up. How many times have you seen models change?
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5364
Quoting kmanislander:
Is 13N 32W a sleeper ??

Good evening folks


Good evening y'all. Good find Kman, will go look it further.
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Its no use using todays models because they dont have an exact center to track. Give it 48 hours, then the models should have a better hold on things.
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1120. bwat
Quoting canesrule1:
My new chances:

Eastern Seaboard: 9%

Recurvature (Fish or Bermuda impact): 91%

00z models all of them recurving:



More 00z models:



00z early intensity models:



Man I hope your right but I hate to give any odds until it is at least a depression.
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1119. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting CaneAddict:
It's quite possible that sometime in the next week or so we will be tracking another cape-verde system.
we get four more before the moon goes new in sept not all will be cv's
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59586
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING
THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MODELED TO INTENSIFY...BUT ITS EVOLUTION AND
TRACK REMAIN UNCERTAIN. A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND PROMINENT RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THIS POTENTIAL TROPICAL
SYSTEM. CURRENTLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH ATTEMPTS TO MINIMIZE
THE ENVELOPE OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. HAVE INSERTED HIGH CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY..

this is the early think from nws out of tauton mass
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1117. centex
Quoting StormW:


Actually I was really surprised...we have always joked around on here saying "yea...NHC musta been reading my forecast". I never knew!!
You always keep them professional and consistent quality, if you've not had time to do your research you hold back. I guess they like we have learned you can be trusted.
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Quoting StormW:


Thanks!

Haven't seen you in a while!


Yeah been busy with alot and like I said during Bill I would have been here but my laptop took a crap.
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Quoting hurricane556:


no, that yesterday the 24th. thats in utc time and we are now on the 25th at 1:22 UTC
oops, ill remove it, thanks for informing me.
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Looking at 93L, if it goes into the EPac that way, it could be well on the way to a Major in that basin in 48 hrs.....
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1113. 7544
looks like we have two blobs now did 92l get a twin infront of it
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Is 13N 32W a sleeper ??

Good evening folks
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 16278
Quoting canesrule1:
no that is today, look at the buttom.


no, thats yesterday the 24th. thats in utc time and we are now on the 25th at 1:22 UTC
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Quoting SavannahStorm:


Georgia -5%
lol, i changed them look at post 1105.
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Quoting hurricane556:


thats yesterday's run
no that is today, look at the buttom.
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Quoting canesrule1:
my chances with current models indication:

8% Florida

32% Carolinas

60% recurvature (possibly a fish or Bermuda hit).



Georgia -5%
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My new chances:

Eastern Seaboard: 9%

Recurvature (Fish or Bermuda impact): 91%

00z models all of them recurving:



More 00z models:



00z early intensity models:

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Quoting canesrule1:
00z NAM models recurving it:





thats yesterday's run
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Quoting BoynSea:
1053. BahaHurican 12:56 AM GMT on August 25, 2009

This one (92L) seems to have you a bit concerned, Baha.
I think it's going to track a bit more North than predicted....but then the shear drops off.

Comments?

Boynsea
I'm looking at it and hoping it stays off our shores. I'm also hoping that if it DOES head our way, it's because it's still so weak and disorganized it won't be more than the "normal" Twave passing through.

What's making me nervous is that there's no real consensus about strength or developmental speed. If it suddenly gets its act together on Thursday (remember Katrina?) we could be looking a cat 1 cane without people even realizing that the potential for one is out there.

I'm hoping for the best, though.
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00z NAM models recurving it:



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What we have to realize is that the difference in wether 93L develops or stays an invest is nothing. The bottom line is regardless of a closed circulation of not, it is going to cause huge problems as far as flooding.
Remember that.
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Quoting canesrule1:
seems to move straight towards Florida them scrape the coast and curve, imo.


The steering is going to change many times before 92L will become more organized.
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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