Bill brushes Massachusetts; Nova Scotia gets pounded

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:05 PM GMT on August 23, 2009

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The winds and waves are dying down in coastal Massachusetts, which took a glancing blow from Hurricane Bill last night and this morning. Bill's center passed about 200 miles southeast of Massachusetts' Nantucket Island, bringing top sustained winds of 24 mph, gusting to 31 mph, at the airport. A storm surge of 1 foot was observed on Cape Cod and Nantucket at high tide. A storm surge of 0.5 feet was reported at Newport, RI, and Boston, MA. President Obama arrives in neighboring Martha's Vineyard today for vacation, and will not want to go swimming--seas of up to 15 feet will continue to batter the shores of southeast Massachusetts. Significant wave heights at Buoy 44008, about 60 miles southeast of Nantucket Island reached 27 feet early this morning. A rainband from Bill set up over Massachusetts, from Boston southwestward, and several reports of 3 - 4 inches of rain came from stations in the rain band (Figure 1).


Figure 1. Radar estimated precipitation from Hurricane Bill. Kingston, MA, received 3.74 inches of rain from Bill. Western Massachusetts got even heavier rain from an approaching cold front.

Bill's impact on Canada
The Canadian Hurricane Center is predicting that Bill will generate a storm surge of 0.5 - 1.0 meters (1.5 - 3 feet) along the coasts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland today, as the storm races northeast at 30 mph. The surge, when combined with the 5 - 10 meter (16 - 33 foot) waves expected to pound the coast, will cause considerable coastal damage. This is the main threat of Bill to Canada. Bill's highest hurricane-force winds should stay offshore this afternoon as the hurricane passes the heavily populated capital, Halifax. However, winds of 60 - 70 mph will likely impact eastern Nova Scotia, where Bill is expected to make landfall later today, causing considerable tree damage and power outages. Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches will also cause localized flooding problems. Radar out of Halifax, Nova Scotia shows heavy rain from Bill impacting most of the province, but Bill's center is located well offshore. Buoy 44150 was in the east eyewall of Bill at 9:30 am EDT, and reported sustained winds of 62 mph, gusting to 85 mph, with waves of 40 feet. Bill is expected to make landfall over Newfoundland near midnight tonight, but will have likely weakened to a tropical storm by then.

Links to follow:
wundermap for Nova Scotia
Halifax radar
Canadian Hurricane Center advisories

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no threat areas in the Atlantic worth mentioning today. Most of the models are calling for the possible development of a tropical cyclone in the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina on Wednesday or Thursday. There could be two triggers for tropical cyclone formation--the remains of the cold front that pushed off the U.S. East Coast this morning, plus a tropical wave that is currently approaching the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. We will also need to watch the region off the coast of Africa this week.

I'll have an update Monday, when I'll show a remarkable photo taken in the eye of Hurricane Bill by the Hurricane Hunters.

Jeff Masters

After Bill (denmar)
Looking south easterly off St. David's, Bermuda
After Bill
Waves courtesy of Hurricane Bill (bugbug)
East Coast surfers trying their hand at "big" surf.
Waves courtesy of Hurricane Bill

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And what were we following one year ago today..

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/7. RAIN
BANDS HAVE BECOME RELATIVELY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN OVER WATER...AND
ALL AVAILABLE DATA SUGGEST THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING. FAY IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT...ALTHOUGH RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS
PERSIST EVEN OVER LAND AREAS. SINCE FAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER
LAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SLOW WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH
DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...FAY COULD REMAIN A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.



Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11005
Large wave sweeps spectators into sea
AP Last updated 10:34 24/08/2009

US rescue crews were searching for three people who were swept into the sea after a large wave caused by Hurricane Bill washed over a crowd watching the surf in Maine.

A crowd at Acadia National Park was gathered on some rocks when the wave washed over them. Two other people who were swept into the ocean were rescued. The Coast Guard and search crews are looking for the three others.

Bill was also blamed for the death of a 54-year-old swimmer in Florida on Saturday. Volusia County Beach Patrol Captain Scott Petersohn said Angel Rosa was unconscious when he washed ashore in rough waves fueled by Bill at New Smyrna Beach along the central Florida coast. He was pronounced dead at a hospital.

Lifeguards there also rescued a handful of other swimmers with suspected spinal injuries.

Several people also had to be rescued from the water in Massachusetts, including a couple of kayakers who became stranded in the heavy seas off Plymouth, said Peter Judge, a spokesman for the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency.

He said strong rip tides and beach erosion were the biggest concerns on Sunday.

"Our biggest thing right now is just the rough surf," he said.

The National Hurricane Centre had lifted the tropical storm warning for the Massachusetts coastline, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket, early on Sunday morning, and President Barack Obama and his family arrived on Cape Cod on Sunday afternoon for a holiday after the storm had passed well to the east.

In Canada, the hurricane was expected to bring up to 18cm of rain to Nova Scotia and was expected to approach Newfoundland by Sunday night.

Power outages were reported across Nova Scotia's southern shore, and some roadways near the province's coastline were closed.
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Can someone answer a really basic question?

Bill is going so fast - it seems that he's just flying north. Do tropical systems usually move fast when they go further north? Does it have something to do with the colder SSTs, which makes them weaker and smaller?

Any answers are much appreciated. I'm so sorry if this is a silly question. I'm still learning. Thank you!
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Ahh... I want to emphasize in climatological mojo when getting my MS in Meterology.
Quoting Patrap:
Best to watch any Swirl,ULL,even with Left sided usual convection.

But that sweet spot has a Bad record Historically in that next of the woods.
92 and 05 to be exact,.esp this week.


24th Andrew,

29th Katrina,..

More Bad mojo will be around for 2009...that would be a good bet.

Sept 13 Ike as well. One year Anniversary.


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Quoting GatorWX:


That person is probably stormtop with a different name. Who else would praise him like that and act like "who is this uncanny genius"!
No I'm not Stormtrop ! Just a long time reader and follower of wundergruond . I did not mean to sound like a brown noser or but kisser.Just a supporter.Guess Iwent a little overboard! My sincerest apologies Mr. Gator!
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Best to watch any Swirl,ULL,even with Left sided usual convection.

But that sweet spot has a Bad record Historically in that neck of the woods.
92 and 05 to be exact,.esp this week.


24th Andrew,

29th Katrina,..

More Bad mojo will be around for 2009...that would be a good bet.

Sept 13 Ike as well. One year Anniversary.

Best to watch any swirls next 6-8 weeks.

Juan in 85





Hurricane Juan near peak intensity
Formed October 26, 1985
Dissipated November 1, 1985
Highest
winds
85 mph (140 km/h) (1-minute sustained)
Lowest pressure 971 mbar (hPa; 28.67 inHg)
Fatalities 24 direct
Damage $1.5 billion (1985 USD)
$3 billion (2009 USD)
Areas
affected Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida Panhandle


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Quoting Patrap:

Tell me please that that will not become tropical....
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345. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #56
TYPHOON VAMCO (T0910)
6:00 AM JST August 24 2009
=========================================

SUBJECT: Category Thee Typhoon Far Off East Of Japan

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Vamco (955 hPa) located at 30.6N 154.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving north at 10 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Storm-Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
160 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 36.3N 155.3E - 75 knots (Cat 3/Typhoon)
45 HRS: 47.4N 163.6E - EXTRATROPICAL
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Afternoon....That Trof passage has left very little in terms of any significant remnants in the Gulf, or around Florida, and plenty of dry stable air filing into the Gulf. As such, I would not expect the next possible system to develop there anytime soon which is why Dr. M has "excluded" the Gulf from possible watch areas in the short term. I don't see anything very promising outr there at the moment and that ULL is tearing away at the wave east of the Antilles......May be several days before we get something on the radar.
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Quoting GatorWX:


That person is probably stormtop with a different name. Who else would praise him like that and act like "who is this uncanny genius"!
That is exactly what I thought when I read his comments.
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wave with strong winds coming off Africa, will most likely recurve quickly if it develops into anything significant.
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Quoting HopquickSteve:
Is bill making landfall right now? I thought it was going to miss...

MIMIC has the center right on land as we speak.
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Is bill making landfall right now? I thought it was going to miss...
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ULL putting the clamp on the AOI near 15/55
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11005
Quoting IKE:
Blob at 15N and near 55W is under 20-30 knots of shear.
Quoting stormpetrol:

Yup, I think the NHC removed the yellow circle mainly because of high shear forecast, greatest destroyer of potential tropical systems imo, here in the NW Caribbean pressures seem slightly below normal, wonder if something could be brewing in this region.


Sorry this comment was meant for IKE's post.
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Quoting Grothar:


What are the chances of this large ULL becoming a surface low? Mighty large system. Was this created by Bill's wake?


its part of the TUTT but currently tied the upper flow around Bill.

Chances of such a broad upper low reaching the surface are slim. Normally it is a well define and tight upper circulation that transfers to the surface...90L.

this feature may however play a role in something east of the Bahamas later this week.
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Quoting stormpetrol:

A yellow circle was there when it was around 30W and then removed, wouldn't be surprised to see it there again around 15/55 then again who knows.

Yup, I think the NHC removed the yellow circle mainly because of high shear forecast, greatest destroyer of potential tropical systems imo, here in the NW Caribbean pressures seem slightly below normal, wonder if something could be brewing in this region.
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Quoting Weather456:
That is massive upper low in the CATL



What are the chances of this large ULL becoming a surface low? Mighty large system. Was this created by Bill's wake?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25434
Quoting JLPR:
Now im confused with the CATL wave =\
the ULL is providing 20-30kts of shear but it is also proving the wave with a moist environment, plus the sea surface temperatures are hot there

...im going to wait and see what happens tonight to it
The "outer bands" of the upper lever low appear on water vapor satellite imagery almost like weak frontal boundaries.

Would the trailing end of one these be a possible cyclonic origination area just like with the trailing end of a cold front?
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That is massive upper low in the CATL

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History for Sable Island, NS
TimeADT: Wind Dir: Wind Speed: Gust Speed:

3:00 PM South 49.5 mph -
3:00 PM South 48.3 mph 65.6 mph
3:25 PM South 49.5 mph 65.6 mph
3:33 PM South 54.1 mph 66.7 mph
3:40 PM South 57.5 mph 69.0 mph
4:00 PM South 54.1 mph 74.8 mph
4:19 PM South 57.5 mph 67.9 mph
4:21 PM SSW 55.2 mph 73.7 mph
4:23 PM South 54.1 mph 73.7 mph
4:24 PM South 56.4 mph 73.7 mph
4:40 PM SSW 61.0 mph 73.7 mph
4:51 PM SSW 57.5 mph 76.0 mph
4:56 PM SSW 56.4 mph 70.2 mph
5:00 PM SSW 58.7 mph 70.2 mph
5:09 PM SSW 56.4 mph 73.7 mph
5:32 PM SW 59.8 mph 77.1 mph
5:48 PM SW 57.5 mph 74.8 mph
6:00 PM SW 58.7 mph - -
6:00 PM SW 57.5 mph 73.7 mph


Sustained 50 to 55 mph wind gets on your nerves after three hours.
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327. IKE
Blob at 15N and near 55W is under 20-30 knots of shear.
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48 hrs would put that AOI at about the latitude of Hispaniola, right? (haven't been noting the forward speed....)
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21570
325. JLPR
Now im confused with the CATL wave =\
the ULL is providing 20-30kts of shear but it is also proving the wave with a moist environment, plus the sea surface temperatures are hot there

...im going to wait and see what happens tonight to it
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 5223
Quoting youngw3ath3rman:
could somebody send me a link to where i can view all the different forecast models. gfs,gfdl,etc.. Thanks


Try the link below. Very interesting

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25434
Enjoyed finally getting to meet Pat(rap) at the annual Rising Tide bloggers conference in New Orleans.
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Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
Does anyone else think a yellow circle might be on the "cat-looking" disturbance tonight or tommorow?

A yellow circle was there when it was around 30W and then removed, wouldn't be surprised to see it there again around 15/55 then again who knows.
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Does anyone else think a yellow circle might be on the "cat-looking" disturbance tonight or tommorow?

Also, how many aliases have stormtop had? One I think is stormno.
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Quoting GatorWX:


That person is probably stormtop with a different name. Who else would praise him like that and act like "who is this uncanny genius"!


this is probably the only time he forecast one "right"
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could somebody send me a link to where i can view all the different forecast models. gfs,gfdl,etc.. Thanks
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Quoting StormW:


Geez...another case of rectal/cranial inversion. Nowhere in any of my forecasts does it state it would hit Cape Cod...I believe my exact words were "Cape Cod could see sustained winds of 40 mph"


That person is probably stormtop with a different name. Who else would praise him like that and act like "who is this uncanny genius"!
Member Since: January 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2695
The Passage of Bill - Sable Island

Maximum gust was 77 mph

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Quoting StormW:


Geez...another case of rectal/cranial inversion. Nowhere in any of my forecasts does it state it would hit Cape Cod...I believe my exact words were "Cape Cod could see sustained winds of 40 mph"
Rectal/cranial inversion is a sad thing to see happen!Love you Storm W. Read your blog whenever theres something brewing. Keep FORECASTING!! New guy out!
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as we get into late august and early sept tracks change to n cen carb and nw carb into gom type systems and cv storms start the east coast recurve
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Quoting HurricaneKyle:


Are you alright in the head?


pretty questionable lol
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Quoting StormW:
CMC = Constantly Making Cyclones


Clever, StormW. I wish I had thought of that one. Do not lose your wit!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25434
Quoting lovesdanger:
i am amazed i went back and looked at everyones prediction on bill and STORMTOP is the only one that got it right ..i mean right on the nose..he forecast bermuda to get tropical storm force winds and that bill wouldnt hit any other land area in the united states..he was dead on..i have to take my hat off to him because most of you had it hitting cape cod..STORM W had it hitting cape cod also..i do respect his forecast but it just goes to show you he is not GOD..so i guess it will be quite a while before we get the d storm..also who is this guy STORMTOP he also forecasted only 6 storms this year ..he went the lowest out of anyone including STORM W and the NHC...this guy is really on the ball..just wanted to pass this on...a job well done STORMTOP..also i want to put a plug in for reedzone who sticks to his forecast i want to congrats him on the nova scotia hit good job reedzone...


Are you alright in the head?
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Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 628
Quoting Grothar:


So you must see the same as I? The CMC overdoes its cyclogenesis predictions.
We have a tradition of referring to the "CMC on crack [cocaine]" because it sometimes overexaggerates the formation potential of a particular AOI. I tend to give CMC more credit for track prediction than intensity prediction. For example, the fact that CMC suggests a cat 5 approaching the Bahamas next week could possibly be accurate, but is MUCH more likely to mean that the next Twave is very likely to head our way. SOMEthing is coming, but the CMC can't usually tell whether it is a Twave or a cat 5......
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21570
hello!... anything new out there?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i think ya should get yer head outta STORMTOPS flush model do ya need a towel to wipe that crap off


That person is probably STORMTOP...they have so many alias's.
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TO: Patrap

Hey, long time no hear. In the image you posted, does it appear the low north of the feature is trying to grasp the moisture. Would it be possible for the low to the north become the dominant feature? It appears to have a healthy rotation; presumably in the upper atmosphere.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25434
Quoting Skyepony:
Amazing is the size of it, can tell Bill had a hand in creating it. That is going to be an inhibitor for at least a few days.



I was thinking the same thing about the size of that ULL. Isn't a little big for this time of year? It covers a large part of the central Atlantic.
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Quoting lovesdanger:
i am amazed i went back and looked at everyones prediction on bill and STORMTOP is the only one that got it right ..i mean right on the nose..he forecast bermuda to get tropical storm force winds and that bill wouldnt hit any other land area in the united states..he was dead on..i have to take my hat off to him because most of you had it hitting cape cod..STORM W had it hitting cape cod also..i do respect his forecast but it just goes to show you he is not GOD..so i guess it will be quite a while before we get the d storm..also who is this guy STORMTOP he also forecasted only 6 storms this year ..he went the lowest out of anyone including STORM W and the NHC...this guy is really on the ball..just wanted to pass this on...a job well done STORMTOP..also i want to put a plug in for reedzone who sticks to his forecast i want to congrats him on the nova scotia hit good job reedzone...
i think ya should get yer head outta STORMTOPS flush model do ya need a towel to wipe that crap off
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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