Bill batters Bermuda; Canada next

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 22, 2009

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The winds are dying down on Bermuda, which took a glancing blow from Hurricane Bill last night and this morning. Bill's center passed about 170 miles west of the island, bringing top sustained winds at the Bermuda airport of 46 mph, gusting to 60 mph, at 8:55 pm AST last night. One Bermuda weather station at an elevation of 262 ft recorded a wind gust of 95 mph during a severe thunderstorm last night, resulting in some wind damage that will be surveyed today. Hurricane Bill was undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle last night during its passage west of Bermuda, and the collapse of the inner eyewall meant that the hurricane could not strengthen. An outer rain band has now formed into a new, much larger diameter eyewall. As a result, Bill now has a huge, 50-mile diameter eye. Now that the eyewall replacement cycle is complete, Bill has about a 12-hour window of time to intensify, since the hurricane is crossing the axis of the warm Gulf Stream Current, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots.

Around midnight tonight, Bill will lose its warm waters, and SSTs will decline quickly to 19°C (66°F) Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon, wind shear will rise to 40 knots as Bill encounters the upper-level westerly winds of the large trough of low pressure that is steering the hurricane to the north. These strong upper-level winds will act to turn Bill to the northeast, and shear the hurricane apart. By the time Bill reaches Nova Scotia, Bill should be approaching tropical storm strength, though it will still be generating huge waves.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Bill at from Saturday morning 8/22/09.

Bill's waves
Hurricane Bill continues to generate huge waves, thanks to its large size and the long time it spent at major hurricane intensity. This morning, Bill passed 95 miles east of Buoy 41048, which recorded significant wave heights of 27 feet, and sustained winds of 50 mph. Huge waves battered Bermuda yesterday and today, as seen in the wunderphotos taken by denmar, at the bottom of the blog. Output from NOAA's Wavewatch III model suggests that significant wave heights near Bill's center will peak at 40 feet today. Large swells from Bill have reached most of the U.S. East Coast, and wave heights will increase today. Waves at the Nantucket, Massachusetts buoy were up to 9.5 feet this morning, and the Cape Cod Buoy had 8.5' waves. The big waves affecting the U.S. coast will cause very dangerous swimming conditions, and will likely cause several million dollars in beach erosion damage. Though Bill will bring sustained winds near 40 mph and occasional heavy rain showers to southeastern Massachusetts, it is Bill's waves that are the primary threat of the storm to the U.S.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave in the middle Atlantic that NHC mentioned in their Tropical Weather Outlook this morning is falling apart, and there are no threat areas in the Atlantic worth mentioning today. Though the models are not calling for any clear-cut development of any tropical cyclones over the next week, we should keep a close eye on the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina by Wednesday. There could be two triggers for tropical cyclone formation then--the remains of the cold front that will be pushing off the U.S. East Coast this weekend, plus a tropical wave. The Western Caribbean also may be prime for some development late next week, as well as the region off the coast of Africa.

I'll have an update Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Bill (denmar)
Hurricane Bill
Hurricane Bill (denmar)
Hurricane Bill

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Quoting bluewaterblues:


You should probably keep your pie hole closed. On my 4 years of mostly lurking on this site you have been soooooo wrong on multiple occasions. You have no groungd in casting stones and hunkerdown is a tool...u deserve each other


No IKE is right, I did say that, but here's what StormW (who also incredibly nailed Bill) said on August 19th

"My thinking on this, with the ULL and weakness being rather small in comparison to the hurricane, and with a strengthening trend forecast by NHC, my concern right now (again slim) is that BILL pumps out enough heat, in effect causing ridging to strengthen somewhat to his north, that it could overcome the ULL, allowing either a small shift, or a more continued WNW motion for a short period. This would be known as the term we use sometimes as "Busting the Trof"."

So I agreed with him that it was a slim chance but hey we're not all perfect.
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Quoting PortABeachBum:
and the gfs Link shows nothin'. You pick and choose!


Which do you consider the more reliable of the models? The CMC or GFS. In my opionion the CMC sometimes over-develops systems. I was informed once by a colleague that the GFS will drop an invest if the Navy Site drops it. (Not sure of the accuracy of the information.) Also, that all the models are not held to the same criteria.

Would like your opinion.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26143
Quoting IKE:
Here's the long-wave trough....looks like the trough won....

troughs like that normally shuts season as they sweep across the atlantic when ya see the outflow coming off the gulf coast and fla then there strong ones season killers
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Quoting PortABeachBum:
and the gfs Link shows nothin'. You pick and choose!


Bill was my first tracking experience and what a great learning storm. It has been fascinating and I hung with you all the whole way from the beginning. ty for this blog and all the great info. How do I save the cmc link so I can have the most current map each day? I would like to look at it regularly but when I saved it in my favs it linked me back to the date I looked at it last. I hope this makes sense???
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Quoting IKE:
reedzone...I went back and read some of your posts. This is the one that got me...

Found this post from a few days ago, referencing the long-wave trough that eroded the high and turned Bill. rwdobson was giving his thoughts to the odds of the long-wave trough turning Bill....reedzone responded.....


22. reedzone 10:40 AM CDT on August 19, 2009 Hide
this comment.

Quoting rwdobson:


Nothing is 100%, but I'd say 99.99%.



Hurricane Isabel in 2003 busted through the trough and hit the Carolinas. It's slim, but there is a chance Bill could do that.


Sorry...there was no chance Bill was going to bust a long-wave trough.....none.........


You should probably keep your pie hole closed. On my 4 years of mostly lurking on this site you have been soooooo wrong on multiple occasions. You have no groungd in casting stones and hunkerdown is a tool...u deserve each other
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.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115107
Quoting reedzone:
I think some people on here were hyping that Tropical Storm Ana was going to be a category 5 storm and hit South Florida.. People will love to hype, until the hype actually comes true.

and come true it will

o danny boy the pipes the pipes are calling
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Subsident upper level highs
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713. IKE
Here's the long-wave trough....looks like the trough won....

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Quoting reedzone:


Hey, it's all good
1. They had a yellow code on it yesterday I think showing that there was a lower then 30% for development.
2. I believe there is an upper level low that might shear it but it could pump up in the Bahamas once it passes under that TUTT feature.

I would watch the wave, but wouldn't worry about it until something forms out of it.
Hope that answered your questions.


Yes, thanks
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26143
710. IKE
reedzone...I went back and read some of your posts. This is the one that got me...

Found this post from a few days ago, referencing the long-wave trough that eroded the high and turned Bill. rwdobson was giving his thoughts to the odds of the long-wave trough turning Bill....reedzone responded.....


22. reedzone 10:40 AM CDT on August 19, 2009 Hide this comment.

Quoting rwdobson:


Nothing is 100%, but I'd say 99.99%.



Hurricane Isabel in 2003 busted through the trough and hit the Carolinas. It's slim, but there is a chance Bill could do that.


Sorry...there was no chance Bill was going to bust a long-wave trough.....none.........
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Quoting Grothar:


This may have been asked earlier but just joined the blog a few minutes ago.
The NHC had the new feature this morning as an Invest and then dropped it. It does not appear that impressive at the moment. Do you think it is the low pressure to the north inhibiting its development with shear and when might the shear relax? I hope this is not too many questions at once.


Hey, it's all good
1. They had a yellow code on it yesterday I think showing that there was a lower then 30% for development.
2. I believe there is an upper level low that might shear it but it could pump up in the Bahamas once it passes under that TUTT feature.

I would watch the wave, but wouldn't worry about it until something forms out of it.
Hope that answered your questions.
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Quoting PortABeachBum:
Perhaps you have not been following "reedzone's" post for the past few days.
perhaps you have not been following his posts for the past few weeks.
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Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 628
Quoting reedzone:
I think some people on here were hyping that Tropical Storm Ana was going to be a category 5 storm and hit South Florida.. People will love to hype, until the hype actually comes true.


This may have been asked earlier but just joined the blog a few minutes ago.
The NHC had the new feature this morning as an Invest and then dropped it. It does not appear that impressive at the moment. Do you think it is the low pressure to the north inhibiting its development with shear and when might the shear relax? I hope this is not too many questions at once.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26143
Quoting reedzone:


Here's a map I made when Bill was a cat4. Now, do you see the line going through NYC?? NO!
I was just trying to not let people let there guards down just because models and certain bloggers were saying don't worry about it. This was days away from impacting anybody, nobody would know that far out, models changed after Sunday from east of Bermuda to west.

Tuesday or Wednesday I think.. around there.
Photobucket

Now tell me, does that line go through Long Island?? Next time think before you go accusing me of notifying people that models are NOT gods and that things can change.
go back and read your posts, not a recreation of the NHCs map...GROW UP !!!
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Quoting tiggeriffic:
from what I saw earlier...the cmc Link has something forming in around 90 hrs...thats just under 4 days...and skirting florida in 144 hrs...
and the gfs Link shows nothin'. You pick and choose!
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bouncin out...check the stats on the predictions tomorrow...church comes early on sunday....
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I think some people on here were hyping that Tropical Storm Ana was going to be a category 5 storm and hit South Florida.. People will love to hype, until the hype actually comes true.
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tho bill is not gone just yet...my attention is starting to turn to what they think is developing...the time that it is supposed to be hitting the east coast is the same time my 20 year old is supposed to be moving from DC back to Charleston, SC....
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Quoting buckhorntx:


I re-read the piece several times and did not see NYC mentioned even casually. What's the problem? Watch out for big waves and strong currents, that's a no-brainer for those who understand...


It was important that the Northeast watched Bill, just in case the storm did something unexpectedly, which thank God it didn't. Some people will just jump the gun and call you a westcaster, wishcaster just for making people aware of the "possible" situation.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
oh by the way the cold front stalled


Thanks for that bit of info in particular.



Off to sleep. Been traveling and am exhausted.

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698. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL CYCLONE HILDA (EP112009)
3:00 AM UTC August 23 2009
=============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Hilda (1006 hPa) located at 13.6N 138.5W or 1021 east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii has sustained winds of 35 knots with a gust of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Gale-force Winds
==================
30 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: - 13.7N 139.8W - 35 knots (Tropical Storm)
24 HRS: - 14.1N 141.5W - 35 knots (Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: - 14.8N 144.8W - 40 knots (Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: - 15.0N 148.0W - 40 knots (Tropical Storm)
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I am out of here as well....
In search of that red wine.

G'night folks
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Goodnight Allstar17
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695. Relix
Quoting BenBIogger:


Around 40-45W


I remember some models predicted that hitting PR as a wave almost straight on. Let's see what happens
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Quoting reedzone:


Number 2 tonight, wow.. I said people to WATCH BILL, not RUN FOR YOUR LIVES, BILLS GONNA KILL YOU! :P


I re-read the piece several times and did not see NYC mentioned even casually. What's the problem? Watch out for big waves and strong currents, that's a no-brainer for those who understand...
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I'm ready to head out myself.

Ya'll play nice, now. And not too many hits on the bad quality red wine..... lol

'Nite!
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from what I saw earlier...the cmc has something forming in around 90 hrs...thats just under 4 days...and skirting florida in 144 hrs...
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1981 storm tracks
What's next? Will the recurving pattern hold for the rest of the season. Can we keep them missing (mostly) highly populated areas? GN
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Cold front? I sense no such thing, just a spinning storm :P ... JUST KIDDING!

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Quoting tiggeriffic:
is that the one that the cmc has forming and skirting the east coast?


Yes.
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Good night everyone, check in tomorrow morning.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
by this time sunday bill will be out of here


Bill Should be Tropical Storm hitting Canada.
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Bill

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oh by the way the cold front stalled
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by this time sunday bill will be out of here
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If whatever pops up doesn't do so until Thursday, the Doc's comment about 7 quiet days elswhere in the ATL might turn out to be right...
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is that the one that the cmc has forming and skirting the east coast?
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Quoting tiggeriffic:
put the guns away plz...would someone post a link to the thing that is supposed to pop up near the bahamas in a few days?


Around 40-45W
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BTW, that was a "lazy" post, so I can read the discussion and be in the blog at the same time.... lol
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Quoting Drakoen:
For what it's worth the NAM has 2 cyclones one in the Caribbean and one near the Bahamas.



where are they going???
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115107
Bill looks like half a Hurricane lol
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm not sticking around long tonight.

I will say I don't recall reedzone hyping a NYC landfall (or any other landfall, for that matter).

It seems to me that the NYC hypers mostly got 24-hour bans beause they were so hysterical about it that they got taken off the board. (I didn't actually check, but they "disappeared" that way....)

It wasn't only NHC who did a good job with Bill. A lot of our own bloggers called Bill early, and most kept reminding concerned bloggers from various parts of the basin of the reasons why NHC forecast was valid. Considering how paranoic this blog can get, I figure we did pretty good....


StormW did an incredible job with the movement of Bill. I trust him when it comes to forecasting storms, he pretty much nails most of them.
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000
WTNT43 KNHC 230241
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2009

AFTER DIMINISHING FOR A TIME...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
RECENT INCREASE OF COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER OF BILL. WHILE THE EYE IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...MICROWAVE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS AT LEAST A
PARTIAL EYEWALL NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON FINAL CI-NUMBERS OF 4.5 FROM
TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING BILL LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
LOCATION...STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF BILL.

OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BILL APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN MOVING JUST EAST
OF DUE NORTH...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/22. THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE RECURVATURE OF
BILL IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND LIES NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...
SHOWING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST
LIES SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AS THE POST-TROPICAL BILL APPROACHES THE BRITISH
ISLES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BILL WILL SOON BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM
AND INTO A MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BILL WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS...AND
THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE TRANSITION PROCESS BY EARLY
MONDAY AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH 24 HOURS DUE TO COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BEYOND
THAT TIME...A MORE SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST...
ALONG WITH A LARGE EXPANSION OF THE 34-KT WIND RADII...AS BILL
COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY...CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR
MORE DETAILS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 39.1N 67.8W 75 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 42.3N 65.7W 70 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 46.3N 59.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 49.3N 49.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 51.0N 37.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 26/0000Z 53.0N 16.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 27/0000Z 60.0N 6.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 28/0000Z 64.0N 4.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Sure like that empty GOMEX and Carribean tonight.
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Quoting PortABeachBum:
Perhaps you have not been following "reedzone's" post for the past few days.
I read the blog every day : )
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I'm not sticking around long tonight.

I will say I don't recall reedzone hyping a NYC landfall (or any other landfall, for that matter).

It seems to me that the NYC hypers mostly got 24-hour bans beause they were so hysterical about it that they got taken off the board. (I didn't actually check, but they "disappeared" that way....)

It wasn't only NHC who did a good job with Bill. A lot of our own bloggers called Bill early, and most kept reminding concerned bloggers from various parts of the basin of the reasons why NHC forecast was valid. Considering how paranoic this blog can get, I figure we did pretty good....
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For what it's worth the NAM has 2 cyclones one in the Caribbean and one near the Bahamas.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.