Bill batters Bermuda; Canada next

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 22, 2009

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The winds are dying down on Bermuda, which took a glancing blow from Hurricane Bill last night and this morning. Bill's center passed about 170 miles west of the island, bringing top sustained winds at the Bermuda airport of 46 mph, gusting to 60 mph, at 8:55 pm AST last night. One Bermuda weather station at an elevation of 262 ft recorded a wind gust of 95 mph during a severe thunderstorm last night, resulting in some wind damage that will be surveyed today. Hurricane Bill was undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle last night during its passage west of Bermuda, and the collapse of the inner eyewall meant that the hurricane could not strengthen. An outer rain band has now formed into a new, much larger diameter eyewall. As a result, Bill now has a huge, 50-mile diameter eye. Now that the eyewall replacement cycle is complete, Bill has about a 12-hour window of time to intensify, since the hurricane is crossing the axis of the warm Gulf Stream Current, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots.

Around midnight tonight, Bill will lose its warm waters, and SSTs will decline quickly to 19°C (66°F) Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon, wind shear will rise to 40 knots as Bill encounters the upper-level westerly winds of the large trough of low pressure that is steering the hurricane to the north. These strong upper-level winds will act to turn Bill to the northeast, and shear the hurricane apart. By the time Bill reaches Nova Scotia, Bill should be approaching tropical storm strength, though it will still be generating huge waves.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Bill at from Saturday morning 8/22/09.

Bill's waves
Hurricane Bill continues to generate huge waves, thanks to its large size and the long time it spent at major hurricane intensity. This morning, Bill passed 95 miles east of Buoy 41048, which recorded significant wave heights of 27 feet, and sustained winds of 50 mph. Huge waves battered Bermuda yesterday and today, as seen in the wunderphotos taken by denmar, at the bottom of the blog. Output from NOAA's Wavewatch III model suggests that significant wave heights near Bill's center will peak at 40 feet today. Large swells from Bill have reached most of the U.S. East Coast, and wave heights will increase today. Waves at the Nantucket, Massachusetts buoy were up to 9.5 feet this morning, and the Cape Cod Buoy had 8.5' waves. The big waves affecting the U.S. coast will cause very dangerous swimming conditions, and will likely cause several million dollars in beach erosion damage. Though Bill will bring sustained winds near 40 mph and occasional heavy rain showers to southeastern Massachusetts, it is Bill's waves that are the primary threat of the storm to the U.S.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave in the middle Atlantic that NHC mentioned in their Tropical Weather Outlook this morning is falling apart, and there are no threat areas in the Atlantic worth mentioning today. Though the models are not calling for any clear-cut development of any tropical cyclones over the next week, we should keep a close eye on the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina by Wednesday. There could be two triggers for tropical cyclone formation then--the remains of the cold front that will be pushing off the U.S. East Coast this weekend, plus a tropical wave. The Western Caribbean also may be prime for some development late next week, as well as the region off the coast of Africa.

I'll have an update Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Bill (denmar)
Hurricane Bill
Hurricane Bill (denmar)
Hurricane Bill

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Quoting tornadodude:


i dont think #1 is a yes or no question :p


I was wondering if anyone would catch that.
It was a test to see if anyone really read this stuff. LOL

Purdue got a good one.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 628
Patrap, 762, 763:
ok...figured...much like some other things I link to. Thanks very much.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
After reviewing the latest comments, I have some really good questions for all the bloggers.

1) When has "wishcasting", "downcasting", "westcasting", "fishcasting", or any other variation mattered?

2)Has any of those things ever actually changed a storm's path or strength?

3)Do you all recognize that all those conjured up variations to forecasting are just opinions?

4)Does it matter who the hell gets a forecast right or wrong on the blogs as long as the actual experts and people in charge get it right?


Just some thoughts that I had and would like to get your responses to.

1. Doesn't matter, I think we see through it.
2. No.
3. Yes, see #1.
4. I do like to see healthy debate and the very smart people who get it right here and then I have a bit more faith in those who are paid to do it, ie: NHC. I like to see the debate. May be naive???
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Quoting Elena85Vet:


Yes, No, Yes, No


i dont think #1 is a yes or no question :p
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
After reviewing the latest comments, I have some really good questions for all the bloggers.

1) When has "wishcasting", "downcasting", "westcasting", "fishcasting", or any other variation mattered?

2)Has any of those things ever actually changed a storm's path or strength?

3)Do you all recognize that all those conjured up variations to forecasting are just opinions?

4)Does it matter who the hell gets a forecast right or wrong on the blogs as long as the actual experts and people in charge get it right?


Just some thoughts that I had and would like to get your responses to.


.."I'll go with Tropical Lagniappe for 500 Alex"..

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hello all, just thought i'd stop by and see how the tropics are. ive had a busy week at Purdue and havent had much time to get on here
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
After reviewing the latest comments, I have some really good questions for all the bloggers.

1) When has "wishcasting", "downcasting", "westcasting", "fishcasting", or any other variation mattered?

2)Has any of those things ever actually changed a storm's path or strength?

3)Do you all recognize that all those conjured up variations to forecasting are just opinions?

4)Does it matter who the hell gets a forecast right or wrong on the blogs as long as the actual experts and people in charge get it right?


Just some thoughts that I had and would like to get your responses to.


Yes, No, Yes, No
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 628
WOCN31 CWHX 230300
Hurricane Bill intermediate information statement issued by the
canadian hurricane centre of Environment Canada at
12.00 midnight ADT Sunday 23 August 2009.

The next statement will be issued by 3.00 AM ADT

At 12.00 AM ADT... Hurricane Bill was located near latitude
39.1 N and longitude 67.8 W... About 295 nautical miles or 546 km
south south west of Yarmouth Nova Scotia.

Bill is moving towards the north northeast at 22 knots... 41
Km/h. Maximum sustained winds are estimated at 75 knots... 140
Km/h and central pressure at 961 MB.

Examination of latest satelitte loops indicate that Bill is now
nudging toward the north north east.

Georges Bank bouy b44011 is gusting to 29 knots at its 5 metre
anemometer height as of 02 zulu. Quickscat pass at 23 zulu
Varifies that gales are now entering our waters hence the canadian
hurricane centre in Halifax has now commmenced updates to our
bulletins every 3 hours from now on.

With the new quickscat pass for 23 zulu.. We are now in the
Process of reexamining our radius of gales.. Storms and hurricane
force winds.

Discussion with Newfoundland forecasters indicate that an upgrade
To tropical storm warnings will coincide with the issuance of
Public warnings for wind and likely rain for southeastern
Newfoundland around 05h30 NDT. For now.. A special weather statement
will also be issued for high water levels along coastal areas
Facing the brunt of Bill.

The canadain hurricane centre has been in contact with the national
hurricane centre in Miami a short time ago and we concur that no
Changes in track are foreseen. As a result.. No change in the
Status of warnings or weather impacts is anticipated in the short
term as laid out in our previous hurricane message.

End campbell/borgel

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For example this..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_ten_s_loop.shtml

Change it to this by inserting a New Z hour

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/index_ten_s_loop.shtml
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Quoting juslivn:
I like the cmc link. How do I save the cmc link so I can have the most current updated map each day? I would like to look at it regularly; but when I saved it in my favs it linked me back to the date I looked at it last. I hope this makes sense???


All u have to do is this,..its simple.

Just change the Hour in the http addy,..instead of 00,erase and put 06,or 18 ,or 12..
Easy as pie
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Quoting Tazmanian:
93E is looking vary good tonight if this where to keep going we will have TD 12E by sunday AM


TD 12E is in the makeing



where is this at?
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After reviewing the latest comments, I have some really good questions for all the bloggers.

1) When has "wishcasting", "downcasting", "westcasting", "fishcasting", or any other variation mattered?

2)Has any of those things ever actually changed a storm's path or strength?

3)Do you all recognize that all those conjured up variations to forecasting are just opinions?

4)Does it matter who the hell gets a forecast right or wrong on the blogs as long as the actual experts and people in charge get it right?


Just some thoughts that I had and would like to get your responses to.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I like the cmc link. How do I save the cmc link so I can have the most current updated map each day? I would like to look at it regularly; but when I saved it in my favs it linked me back to the date I looked at it last. I hope this makes sense???
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Out for the night, got church in the morning. For those who stood by me tonight, thanks. I really appreciate the encouragement. I hope for those who still think I'm a hype wishcaster, that they would come to realization that I predicted this storm with evidence and not hope. :)
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93E is looking vary good tonight if this where to keep going we will have TD 12E by sunday AM


TD 12E is in the makeing

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Quoting spinzone:
Nobody gives a Rat's butt Patfink!



Show some Love Dwayne..
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been saying for days storm tracking more N now NE. NHC did pretty good job on this one but we didn't point this issue out like we should have.
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Quoting Patrap:
A very nice Guy and Blogger,Actor,writer,..

Mr Harry Shearer with myself today.



.."Yes,..this wunderground blogging stuff is all the rage I hear Smithers,..Lets Join the Mob,..

...Ads or No adds"?






Cool!
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iam ok
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8 mins after twelve good morn wsjfvpe
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747. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #50
TYPHOON VAMCO (T0910)
12:00 PM JST August 23 2009
=========================================

SUBJECT: Category Thee Typhoon North Of Minamitori-sima

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Vamco (955 hPa) located at 27.9N 154.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving north-northwest at 10 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Storm-Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
160 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 31.5N 154.4E - 80 knots (Cat 3/Typhoon)
45 HRS: 39.4N 157.7E - 70 knots (Cat 3/Typhoon)
69 HRS: 51.3N 170.4E - EXTRATROPICAL
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and look who drags itself out of the closet
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Quoting litestar:
Keeper: could Bill get that far?
some part of it any way long time to spin up long time to spin down the bigger the longer
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Quoting Patrap:
Just a personal Obs here..
If one is gonna go against the NHC Grain,best to pull up some sort of synoptic reasoning to Base your ,er..cast on.

Cuz without ,..its all fools gold at best.
i like NAVY myself but both NAVY and NHC do an excellent service well worth its weight in gold theres alot going on by lots of people to keep our shores safe
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Quoting Patrap:
Just a personal Obs here..
If one is gonna go against the NHC Grain,best to pull up some sort of synoptic reasoning to Base your ,er..cast on.

Cuz without ,..its all fools gold at best.


I think that's what wishcasting is, saying something will hit somewhere with no evidence to back it up.
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Keeper: could Bill get that far?
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Got to Hang with Mr. Burns and Bartender Moe here today,..

plus,..da Saints win Over Texans on da road,..38-14,..overall..not a Bad day at tall.
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Just a personal Obs here..
If one is gonna go against the NHC Grain,best to pull up some sort of synoptic reasoning to Base your ,er..cast on.

Cuz without ,..its all fools gold at best.
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Quoting IKE:
I've said this earlier on this blog. I'll say it again...The NHC did an excellent job with Bill. From start to it's soon to be finish, they did an A+ job!


They did, there was not one major shift on the track of Bill.. Kudos to them.
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Quoting reedzone:


Wow, what did Iceland do to deserve that? lol :P


melt??????
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Quoting sfranz:


Looks like some strengthening across much of the broader windfield.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html


Yep. A last great act of defiance before the keys get yanked from the ignition.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 628
Quoting IKE:
I've said this earlier on this blog. I'll say it again...The NHC did an excellent job with Bill. From start to it's soon to be finish, they did an A+ job!


I concur...Bill threw them No Curves,despite the Best attempts to the contrary here.
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Yeah,Im gonna go with the Northern Bias too, as Bill has Gained a Lil more Lat the Last 3 seems.
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733. IKE
I've said this earlier on this blog. I'll say it again...The NHC did an excellent job with Bill. From start to it's soon to be finish, they did an A+ job!
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Quoting Patrap:


Wow, what did Iceland do to deserve that? lol :P
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Quoting Patrap:
he's heading right for the rock pat then the flemish cap
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Looks like some strengthening across much of the broader windfield.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html
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and the latest sat image looks interesting....a bit of puff under the cover of darkness before the final wasting away tomorrow morning?
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complete track report


REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 39.1N 67.8W OR APPROX 280 NM SSE OF
BOSTON, MA. 12 FT SEAS: 300NM NE, 480NM SE, 360NM SW, 300NM NW.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 230902Z, 231502Z, 232102Z AND 240302Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN

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725. IKE
Quoting bluewaterblues:


You should probably keep your pie hole closed. On my 4 years of mostly lurking on this site you have been soooooo wrong on multiple occasions. You have no groungd in casting stones and hunkerdown is a tool...u deserve each other


I would have never brought any of this up until reedzone said..."Quoting reedzone:
I have nailed this storm pretty good as well as the NHC. "....

The quote of his I posted quotes him talking about a "slim chance" of Bill busting the trough.

The NHC never mention any possibility of that in any discussion. Him comparing his forecasts on Bill to the NHC is too much.

Yes, I'm wrong plenty of times, but even an idiot like me realized Bill had no chance of doing that.

Sorry..I won't keep my "piehole closed."
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any coastal wave heights to keep the blog on topic?
Bill is still chugging away, albeit not as powerfully as before
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Fantastic front,..a CONUS Savior,..and NOLA has a N Wind in Late August.

Blessings and a Low dewpoint will bring a smile fo sho.
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Quoting jeffs713:

For the daily answer to your daily question: Nobody can predict that kind of thing this far out. Please stop asking the same question over and over and over.


wow....ok, I will do my best. Don't won't to get on any bodys nerves.....
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Quoting bluewaterblues:


You should probably keep your pie hole closed. On my 4 years of mostly lurking on this site you have been soooooo wrong on multiple occasions. You have no groungd in casting stones and hunkerdown is a tool...u deserve each other


No IKE is right, I did say that, but here's what StormW (who also incredibly nailed Bill) said on August 19th

"My thinking on this, with the ULL and weakness being rather small in comparison to the hurricane, and with a strengthening trend forecast by NHC, my concern right now (again slim) is that BILL pumps out enough heat, in effect causing ridging to strengthen somewhat to his north, that it could overcome the ULL, allowing either a small shift, or a more continued WNW motion for a short period. This would be known as the term we use sometimes as "Busting the Trof"."

So I agreed with him that it was a slim chance but hey we're not all perfect.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.