Bill batters Bermuda; Canada next

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 22, 2009

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The winds are dying down on Bermuda, which took a glancing blow from Hurricane Bill last night and this morning. Bill's center passed about 170 miles west of the island, bringing top sustained winds at the Bermuda airport of 46 mph, gusting to 60 mph, at 8:55 pm AST last night. One Bermuda weather station at an elevation of 262 ft recorded a wind gust of 95 mph during a severe thunderstorm last night, resulting in some wind damage that will be surveyed today. Hurricane Bill was undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle last night during its passage west of Bermuda, and the collapse of the inner eyewall meant that the hurricane could not strengthen. An outer rain band has now formed into a new, much larger diameter eyewall. As a result, Bill now has a huge, 50-mile diameter eye. Now that the eyewall replacement cycle is complete, Bill has about a 12-hour window of time to intensify, since the hurricane is crossing the axis of the warm Gulf Stream Current, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots.

Around midnight tonight, Bill will lose its warm waters, and SSTs will decline quickly to 19°C (66°F) Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon, wind shear will rise to 40 knots as Bill encounters the upper-level westerly winds of the large trough of low pressure that is steering the hurricane to the north. These strong upper-level winds will act to turn Bill to the northeast, and shear the hurricane apart. By the time Bill reaches Nova Scotia, Bill should be approaching tropical storm strength, though it will still be generating huge waves.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Bill at from Saturday morning 8/22/09.

Bill's waves
Hurricane Bill continues to generate huge waves, thanks to its large size and the long time it spent at major hurricane intensity. This morning, Bill passed 95 miles east of Buoy 41048, which recorded significant wave heights of 27 feet, and sustained winds of 50 mph. Huge waves battered Bermuda yesterday and today, as seen in the wunderphotos taken by denmar, at the bottom of the blog. Output from NOAA's Wavewatch III model suggests that significant wave heights near Bill's center will peak at 40 feet today. Large swells from Bill have reached most of the U.S. East Coast, and wave heights will increase today. Waves at the Nantucket, Massachusetts buoy were up to 9.5 feet this morning, and the Cape Cod Buoy had 8.5' waves. The big waves affecting the U.S. coast will cause very dangerous swimming conditions, and will likely cause several million dollars in beach erosion damage. Though Bill will bring sustained winds near 40 mph and occasional heavy rain showers to southeastern Massachusetts, it is Bill's waves that are the primary threat of the storm to the U.S.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave in the middle Atlantic that NHC mentioned in their Tropical Weather Outlook this morning is falling apart, and there are no threat areas in the Atlantic worth mentioning today. Though the models are not calling for any clear-cut development of any tropical cyclones over the next week, we should keep a close eye on the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina by Wednesday. There could be two triggers for tropical cyclone formation then--the remains of the cold front that will be pushing off the U.S. East Coast this weekend, plus a tropical wave. The Western Caribbean also may be prime for some development late next week, as well as the region off the coast of Africa.

I'll have an update Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Bill (denmar)
Hurricane Bill
Hurricane Bill (denmar)
Hurricane Bill

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821. IKE
weather456...I agree. Looks like the next system is probably going to form off of the east coast of the USA.

ECMWF keeps it offshore and has it follow a path like Bill.
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820. IKE
Quoting runnergirl1:
We just pcsed from the area to north Dakota a month ago..65 degrees low humidity is the norm up here but wow in florida..tha's awesome Hey is ValP..still gonna sue the airforce?..lol


I think so. I haven't really followed that other than reading the headlines on the NWFDN website.
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HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 66.5W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

Station 44011 (LLNR 825) - GEORGES BANK 170 NM East of Hyannis, MA 41.1N 66.6W




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We just pcsed from the area to north Dakota a month ago..65 degrees low humidity is the norm up here but wow in florida..tha's awesome Hey is ValP..still gonna sue the airforce?..lol
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817. IKE
8:00 AM AST Sun Aug 23
Location: 42.4°N 65.4°W
Max sustained: 85 mph
Moving: NE at 31 mph
Min pressure: 965 mb


AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
DISCONTINUED FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS
OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
BILL...LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA
SCOTIA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
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Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning, looks like we'll have Danny soon



Yes... models appear to be developing the TW @~45W as it gets positioned/assisted by the TUTT currently to its NW which would then move SW and enhance its upper level divergence (diffluence area) so it can develop some in the Bahamas region.

There has been some indications that the trough split which most forecast to happen in the N GOM will be shifting SW in response to a building high... but location/strength that would be a good question.
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815. IKE
Looks like Bill may go south of Nova Scotia. It may parallel the coast....

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814. IKE
Quoting futuremet:


That is because a prolonged longwave troughing pattern have been set in place in the eastern U.S. The models expect this trough to linger for a while...



I love this weather. Lower humidity....good hair days...
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67 in Elkton Fl now. This AGMGW is killer
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Quoting IKE:


I've got a few leaves already falling off of a tree in my yard.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 64. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.


8-14 day outlook....for temperatures....that should start cooling off the GOM.....



That is because a prolonged longwave troughing pattern have been set in place in the eastern U.S. The models expect this trough to linger for a while...

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811. IKE
Quoting runnergirl1:
Wow 65 Degrees on the florida panhandle in Aug?..that's wonderful


I've got a few leaves already falling off of a tree in my yard.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 64. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm.


8-14 day outlook....for temperatures....that should start cooling off the GOM.....

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Good luck in Halifax guys...!

I hear there are free "hurricane" drinks at the Charleton....!
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Good Morning, looks like we'll have Danny soon

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Good morning...
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Quoting IKE:
00Z ECMWF......shows a low east of Florida that follows a path similar to Bill.


South America 00Z ECMWF.....shows nothing significant coming off Africa through September 2nd.


I've got a cool 65 degrees outside.

99 days left is the tropical season.
Wow 65 Degrees on the florida panhandle in Aug?..that's wonderful
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Storm information for Bill valid as of: Sunday, August 23, 2009 6:00 Z
Coordinates: 40.1N 67.3W (View Map or View Storm Centered Satellite Image)
Location: 218 miles (351 km) to the ESE (119%uFFFD) from New Bedford, MA, USA
Distance Calculator: How far away is this storm from me?
Pressure (MSLP): 962 mb (28.41 inHg | 962 hPa)
Sustained wind speed (1 min. avg.): 70 knots (81 mph | 36 m/s)

Therefore next advisory will have bill lowered to 80 mph!
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Well guys, bill is just offshore, here in eastern nova scotia its just cloudy, not windy. Should start impacting in next couple of hours
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804. IKE
00Z ECMWF......shows a low east of Florida that follows a path similar to Bill.


South America 00Z ECMWF.....shows nothing significant coming off Africa through September 2nd.


I've got a cool 65 degrees outside.

99 days left is the tropical season.
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #51
TYPHOON VAMCO (T0910)
15:00 PM JST August 23 2009
=========================================

SUBJECT: Category Thee Typhoon North Of Minamitori-sima

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Vamco (955 hPa) located at 28.5N 154.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving north at 10 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm-Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
160 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 31.9N 154.7E - 75 knots (Cat 3/Typhoon)
48 HRS: 39.6N 157.9E - 65 knots (Cat 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 50.6N 172.2E - EXTRATROPICAL

so much for so little
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801. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL CYCLONE HILDA (EP112009)
9:00 AM UTC August 23 2009
=============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Hilda (1003 hPa) located at 13.7N 139.3W or 975 east-southeast of Hilo Hawaii has sustained winds of 40 knots with a gust of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Gale-force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: - 13.9N 140.6W - 40 knots (Tropical Storm)
24 HRS: - 14.3N 142.2W - 45 knots (Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: - 14.8N 145.7W - 50 knots (Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: - 15.0N 149.0W - 50 knots (Tropical Storm)
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800. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
wabit upper 40s here as well... is autumn here for awhile?
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799. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #51
TYPHOON VAMCO (T0910)
15:00 PM JST August 23 2009
=========================================

SUBJECT: Category Thee Typhoon North Of Minamitori-sima

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Vamco (955 hPa) located at 28.5N 154.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The typhoon is reported as moving north at 10 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm-Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
===============
160 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 31.9N 154.7E - 75 knots (Cat 3/Typhoon)
48 HRS: 39.6N 157.9E - 65 knots (Cat 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 50.6N 172.2E - EXTRATROPICAL
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night all....

Will check back tomorrow, to see what's new in the tropics...if anything.
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797. whitewabit (Mod)
down to 56º here in central Il so far tonite... some areas around me may get down in the high 40's tomorrow nite... yes really cooled off...
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Quick over view of some 00z models tonight continue to insist on development near the bahamas but most are showing a weakness in the ridge to the NE of the system which may allow what ever developes to track back to the north & and possibly northeast out to sea.

Adrian
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Since I am new, and Bill was my first tracking experience, you guys, and the NHC were amazing. If I had that little 'bow' smiley thing...I'd use it here.
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When you think of all of the possible scenarios for a Bill landfall, and you consider closely the path Bill took from formation to soon-to-be conclusion, you've really got to give NHC some major kudos. Grand Slam Home Run.

By the way, anyone notice that Ireland will likely get slammed pretty hard by Bill's extratropical remnants late Tuesday/early Wednesday? That might be the biggest event from Bill -- don't count out that landfall!! Looks like he'll really be trucking then!
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alright just popped in to check on the wave and old bill, you guys be nice, nite
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Boy this hurricane season is so exciting I could wee wee myself. On a final note I voted from him and still would.


WEE WEE.....LOL!
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Well I will say this that ridge was a big big big ridge. I dont think I can ever recall a ridge that strong in august. it cleaned house and cooled the entire US down in 6 days.
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Newfoundland RADAR.


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Wow Reedzone stepped in it tonight from what I read, OUCH
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Boy this hurricane season is so exciting I could wee wee myself. On a final note I voted from him and still would.
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Quoting centex:
Maybe, I could be wrong.


happens to the best of us
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Quoting tornadodude:
hmmm, yeah i think i agree, bermuda most likely got the worst, but we'll have to wait and see. anything else of note in the Atlanic atm?
Maybe, I could be wrong.
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Quoting floridiancanuck:


Goody, questions I can answer!
1. Um, since I've seen people kvetching about it in every post where there's an active storm on here I'd say... always! At least in as much as it matters enough to bicker over on the internets.

2. While it hasn't been proven yet, my hypothesis is that it must some how affect the storm, not in the directional forecast, but it may alter the intensity. Haven't ya heard hurricanes feed off "hot air". Har har, knee slapper I know!

3. Well I mean I do, of course, but I can't speak for the others.

4. Of course it does! Don't you know all the major news networks scout this blog's comment section searching for rogue forecasters when they are looking to hire a dashing meteorolgist! Geez. =P


Had to read this a couple of times cause its the first time 'I' was 'quoted' freaked me out...but lol on that.
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hmmm, yeah i think i agree, bermuda most likely got the worst, but we'll have to wait and see. anything else of note in the Atlanic atm?
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Quoting centex:
No, it will track E and they will only get weak E side. Bermuda got the worst.


Fair enough.
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Quoting Elena85Vet:


You don't consider Nova Scotia or Newfoundland landfall, or you don't expect Bill to make landfall there?
No, it will track E and they will only get weak E side. Bermuda got the worst.
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Quoting centex:
While they did overall good job, they did forecast landfall and that is going to be wrong. I just do it for hobby and forecast closer to Bermuda and no land fall, so I don't follow models and NHC, I use my jugdement.


You don't consider Nova Scotia or Newfoundland landfall, or you don't expect Bill to make landfall there?
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Quoting IKE:
reedzone...I went back and read some of your posts. This is the one that got me...

Found this post from a few days ago, referencing the long-wave trough that eroded the high and turned Bill. rwdobson was giving his thoughts to the odds of the long-wave trough turning Bill....reedzone responded.....


22. reedzone 10:40 AM CDT on August 19, 2009 Hide this comment.

Quoting rwdobson:


Nothing is 100%, but I'd say 99.99%.



Hurricane Isabel in 2003 busted through the trough and hit the Carolinas. It's slim, but there is a chance Bill could do that.


Sorry...there was no chance Bill was going to bust a long-wave trough.....none.........


Do we have to mention Isabel.. :(. That was my worst experience ever. And the stench of sewer for days, not mention the dead bodies of animals that you could smell for MILES. Bad experience, wouldn't wish it on anyone. Not even on a troll.
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Quoting juslivn:

1. Doesn't matter, I think we see through it.
2. No.
3. Yes, see #1.
4. I do like to see healthy debate and the very smart people who get it right here and then I have a bit more faith in those who are paid to do it, ie: NHC. I like to see the debate. May be naive???


Goody, questions I can answer!
1. Um, since I've seen people kvetching about it in every post where there's an active storm on here I'd say... always! At least in as much as it matters enough to bicker over on the internets.

2. While it hasn't been proven yet, my hypothesis is that it must some how affect the storm, not in the directional forecast, but it may alter the intensity. Haven't ya heard hurricanes feed off "hot air". Har har, knee slapper I know!

3. Well I mean I do, of course, but I can't speak for the others.

4. Of course it does! Don't you know all the major news networks scout this blog's comment section searching for rogue forecasters when they are looking to hire a dashing meteorolgist! Geez. =P
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Quoting Elena85Vet:


Wish you luck. Just remember you really only get one good shot at that kind of stuff so make the best of it.

As a former USAF RADAR electronics instructor and test writer, keep this in mind during mild moments of stress.

"Which one of these does not look like the other?"


thanks again, i will, and yeah im definitely going to make the most of this. my friend who just graduated from here for met. and he got to go with Vortex this summer
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Quoting tornadodude:
haha thanks, yeah im studying meteorology there


Wish you luck. Just remember you really only get one good shot at that kind of stuff so make the best of it.

As a former USAF RADAR electronics instructor and test writer, keep this in mind during mild moments of stress.

"Which one of these does not look like the other?"
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While they did overall good job, they did forecast landfall and that is going to be wrong. I just do it for hobby and forecast closer to Bermuda and no land fall, so I don't follow models and NHC, I use my jugdement.
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haha thanks, yeah im studying meteorology there
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Quoting tornadodude:


i dont think #1 is a yes or no question :p


I was wondering if anyone would catch that.
It was a test to see if anyone really read this stuff. LOL

Purdue got a good one.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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