Bill batters Bermuda; Canada next

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:09 PM GMT on August 22, 2009

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The winds are dying down on Bermuda, which took a glancing blow from Hurricane Bill last night and this morning. Bill's center passed about 170 miles west of the island, bringing top sustained winds at the Bermuda airport of 46 mph, gusting to 60 mph, at 8:55 pm AST last night. One Bermuda weather station at an elevation of 262 ft recorded a wind gust of 95 mph during a severe thunderstorm last night, resulting in some wind damage that will be surveyed today. Hurricane Bill was undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle last night during its passage west of Bermuda, and the collapse of the inner eyewall meant that the hurricane could not strengthen. An outer rain band has now formed into a new, much larger diameter eyewall. As a result, Bill now has a huge, 50-mile diameter eye. Now that the eyewall replacement cycle is complete, Bill has about a 12-hour window of time to intensify, since the hurricane is crossing the axis of the warm Gulf Stream Current, and wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots.

Around midnight tonight, Bill will lose its warm waters, and SSTs will decline quickly to 19°C (66°F) Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon, wind shear will rise to 40 knots as Bill encounters the upper-level westerly winds of the large trough of low pressure that is steering the hurricane to the north. These strong upper-level winds will act to turn Bill to the northeast, and shear the hurricane apart. By the time Bill reaches Nova Scotia, Bill should be approaching tropical storm strength, though it will still be generating huge waves.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Bill at from Saturday morning 8/22/09.

Bill's waves
Hurricane Bill continues to generate huge waves, thanks to its large size and the long time it spent at major hurricane intensity. This morning, Bill passed 95 miles east of Buoy 41048, which recorded significant wave heights of 27 feet, and sustained winds of 50 mph. Huge waves battered Bermuda yesterday and today, as seen in the wunderphotos taken by denmar, at the bottom of the blog. Output from NOAA's Wavewatch III model suggests that significant wave heights near Bill's center will peak at 40 feet today. Large swells from Bill have reached most of the U.S. East Coast, and wave heights will increase today. Waves at the Nantucket, Massachusetts buoy were up to 9.5 feet this morning, and the Cape Cod Buoy had 8.5' waves. The big waves affecting the U.S. coast will cause very dangerous swimming conditions, and will likely cause several million dollars in beach erosion damage. Though Bill will bring sustained winds near 40 mph and occasional heavy rain showers to southeastern Massachusetts, it is Bill's waves that are the primary threat of the storm to the U.S.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The tropical wave in the middle Atlantic that NHC mentioned in their Tropical Weather Outlook this morning is falling apart, and there are no threat areas in the Atlantic worth mentioning today. Though the models are not calling for any clear-cut development of any tropical cyclones over the next week, we should keep a close eye on the waters between the Bahamas and North Carolina by Wednesday. There could be two triggers for tropical cyclone formation then--the remains of the cold front that will be pushing off the U.S. East Coast this weekend, plus a tropical wave. The Western Caribbean also may be prime for some development late next week, as well as the region off the coast of Africa.

I'll have an update Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Bill (denmar)
Hurricane Bill
Hurricane Bill (denmar)
Hurricane Bill

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Quoting pottery:
Disclaimer...
this writer will answer all questions asked. It should be noted however, that the information provided will usually be wrong.
heheheh


Hi Pottery - good for a morning chuckle!
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Bills kicking up some convection over NYC.
Image and video hosting by TinyPic
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Don't know who is controlling this cam, but some good views of the VA Beach area.

Another

Another


That's a good cam thanks.

Lot's of surfers out.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 628
Yes the HCH are in the storm. Here is the link to Google Earth to follow them. You need to go down the page to live recon data.

http://www.gearthblog.com/blog/archives/2008/07/live_hurricane_hunter_missions_in_g.htmlHCH RECON
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Quoting TheDawnAwakening:
Are the hurricane hunters out now? This is the best time for the hurricane hunters to gather important information with a large hurricane and its period of intenisification.


Yes, they just fixed the center:

17:08:30Z 35.617N 68.867W 696.9 mb
(~ 20.58 inHg) 2,812 meters
(~ 9,226 feet) 960.8 mb
(~ 28.37 inHg)
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Quoting 7544:
new cmc run for the bahmmas wave hmmm

Link


Not a pretty picture. The GFS also picks up something, however a few days behind. As AllStar mentioned previously about the wind shear in that area. Does anyone have a link to wind shear forecast in the Atlantic basin? Also, all the models show a strong high pressure maintaining for a least a week across the entire Atlantic. Sure this could change anytime as we saw with Bill
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Quoting Elena85Vet:
VA getting some severe weather off the front.
60mph winds associated with some storms.


Don't know who is controlling this cam, but some good views of the VA Beach area.

Another

Another
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Quoting CapeBretonNS:
Well it looks like this is going to spank us pretty hard. Storm surge of 4+ meters(13-14 feet),110-130 klm/h( 70-80 mph) wind gusts and up to 150 mm(6 inches) of rain.All this coinciding with high tide. I am about 1000 feet from the beach and about 80 feet above sea level so I think we will be ok from the ocen water, but I am a bit open to the wind. Time to start locking stuff down, wish me luck!


Bill will weaken quickly, so you should be okay. I was wondering if it would be high tide in the Bay of Fundy when Bill arrives. It looks more and more that he could go in there. Not a good outcome, given the topography of the bay. He'll be pushing some water ahead of him and the bay would act like a funnel.
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Are the hurricane hunters out now? This is the best time for the hurricane hunters to gather important information with a large hurricane and its period of intenisification.
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Bill is restrengthening in my opinion. His eyewall is wrapping all the way around the eye now. It appears to be consolidating as well.
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It looks like the HCH found the center of circulation near 36.65N 68.88W
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Weather456, Love the rapid scan, thanks! BBL
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208. 7544
new cmc run for the bahmmas wave hmmm

Link
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Anyone notice the NHC put Bill on Atlantic Floater One as well. They had it on the CV AOI earlier.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 628
Quoting chucky7777:
The wishcasting vultures are drooling over this scenario, I can see them circling overhead now as we speak lol...Thanks for your input i was wondering about this very thing i was just too apprehensive to ask here in the daytime........
I have been having a rough day and you made laugh,thank you.....drooling vultures..lololol...
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Quoting AllStar17:
199. Weather456

Is that a tornado warning in SE NH?


I'm not sure what the warning is.
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Keep safe, Bretton.
Sounds like fun. Not!
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Thanks for your response to my comment. Sometimes the blog moves so fast that lots of questions get left behind. I usually read Dr. Master's stuff first, look at the charts, read back a few pages in the blog to see what the trend of discussion is, and then if I'm puzzled about something, ask the question. There are some very kind people on here who will answer. Sometimes they answer by posting a chart with the answer on it. I've been on here a couple of years and I can't believe how far I've come in understanding what's going on. Just reading the blog regularly is like going to met school. Also sometimes you laugh out load or as somebody put it yesterday, snort a margarita out through your nose.
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199. Weather456

Is that a tornado warning in SE NH?
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5364
Well it looks like this is going to spank us pretty hard. Storm surge of 4+ meters(13-14 feet),110-130 klm/h( 70-80 mph) wind gusts and up to 150 mm(6 inches) of rain.All this coinciding with high tide. I am about 1000 feet from the beach and about 80 feet above sea level so I think we will be ok from the ocen water, but I am a bit open to the wind. Time to start locking stuff down, wish me luck!
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Disclaimer...
this writer will answer all questions asked. It should be noted however, that the information provided will usually be wrong.
heheheh
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Bill's Outerbands

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Quoting chucky7777:
The wishcasting vultures are drooling over this scenario, I can see them circling overhead now as we speak lol...Thanks for your input i was wondering about this very thing i was just too apprehensive to ask here in the daytime........

Go Rebels
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VA getting some severe weather off the front.
60mph winds associated with some storms.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 628
Quoting hydrus:
.going out on a limb here,but I looked at these models and in 7 days they show a zonal flow over the U.S.The jet steam is forecast to move north,which usually means the Bermuda high could ridge westward.With the persistent trough that is over the eastern side of the country (which seems to come and go with frequent regularity)out of the picture,it is possible that this set up increases the chances of hurricane development much closer to the S.E. coast of the U.S.,including the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.This post is just an opinion based on similar weather patterns I have seen in the past.
The wishcasting vultures are drooling over this scenario, I can see them circling overhead now as we speak lol...Thanks for your input i was wondering about this very thing i was just too apprehensive to ask here in the daytime........
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Quoting rareaire:


feel free to ask questions, many on here will not answer you that is the reality of this blog. However there are many regulars on here who will gladly answer your questions. If you watch and see you will notice them right off and they will take a bit but they will reply. I also send private emails to StormW he will answer by return mail. Also Tampa Spin, Kman islander, BAhahurricane, Stormchaser and others will always respond. I will If I can answer your questions, however my knowledge is not at their level yet. Im not a met im an engineer!


No reason you should leave the site. I have been lurking for years and only recently joined. Many on here have been very helpful, especially with newcomers like ourselves. Don't be bullied our feel you are being ignored. I believe they the more knowledgeable on this web-site may be too busy at the moment and others do not have the correct answer. It is a very informative and fun site (most of the time) Enjoy it and learn and welcome.
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Quoting mobilegirl81:
Bill is large enough to maybe give that trough all it can take.


I agree with that. Looking at the visible loop, it looks like a big squeeze hapening along the New Jersey Coast. Waiting to see what the HCH find as they are now approaching the COC.
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Good Morning All, TropicTraveler just read your post 151 and I agree totally. Thanks for saying it. Just checking in for a bit. Back to lurking....
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Quoting iamcanadian:
Can someone lead me to graphics on a comparison between the NHC forecast and the models? I would like to see how close they are.

Thanks


OFCI is official guidance

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Quoting Progster:


Hope those crowds keep well back if they're out there tomorrow.


It will be closed at the gates tomorrow.
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Quoting Weather456:
Bill Rapid Scan



we are very lucky....
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Quoting jeffs713:

It is a ULL. The ULL was already there before Bill added some convection to it as part of one of his outer bands. I don't think any of the models forecast anything, and I don't think it is really in the right position to work its way down to the surface.


OK. I see the chunk Bill spun off is directly SSW of the ULL and the ULL is tapping that energy as you said. Thanks for the solid answer.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 628
Quoting rareaire:


feel free to ask questions, many on here will not answer you that is the reality of this blog. However there are many regulars on here who will gladly answer your questions. If you watch and see you will notice them right off and they will take a bit but they will reply. I also send private emails to StormW he will answer by return mail. Also Tampa Spin, Kman islander, BAhahurricane, Stormchaser and others will always respond. I will If I can answer your questions, however my knowledge is not at their level yet. Im not a met im an engineer!
Thank you! Thank you to post 175, too.
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On radar you can see the outer rain bands approaching Nantucket
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Quoting iamcanadian:
Peggy's Cove Web Cam


Hope those crowds keep well back if they're out there tomorrow.
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post 178.
Wow, Peggy's Cove is looking dismal today!
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Bill is large enough to maybe give that trough all it can take.
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Can someone lead me to graphics on a comparison between the NHC forecast and the models? I would like to see how close they are.

Thanks
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Bill Rapid Scan

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Quoting LIVINGINNWF:

Thank you for this comment. I am very much an amateur when it comes to weather, but I am very interested in it. I've asked a couple of very beginner questions, and was totally ignored and did not ever post again. A lot of it goes over my head, but I plod on and research other sites with questions I have.

Maybe this is not the right forum for beginners? Is there a forum for beginners on this site that I've completely missed? Thanks...


You can try going to the blogs (just click on their name) of some of the people you find more knowledgeable. If they maintain an active blog, you can leave a question there. It may not get answered right away, but you will find they will generally respond to you.
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Quoting Elena85Vet:
The chunk spun off by Bill yesterday @ 27N and 53W has quite a CCW swirl and is diving SW.

Is that considered a ULL and could someone put some valid words to what could happen with it?


It is a ULL. The ULL was already there before Bill added some convection to it as part of one of his outer bands. I don't think any of the models forecast anything, and I don't think it is really in the right position to work its way down to the surface.
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Quoting LIVINGINNWF:

Thank you for this comment. I am very much an amateur when it comes to weather, but I am very interested in it. I've asked a couple of very beginner questions, and was totally ignored and did not ever post again. A lot of it goes over my head, but I plod on and research other sites with questions I have.

Maybe this is not the right forum for beginners? Is there a forum for beginners on this site that I've completely missed? Thanks...


feel free to ask questions, many on here will not answer you that is the reality of this blog. However there are many regulars on here who will gladly answer your questions. If you watch and see you will notice them right off and they will take a bit but they will reply. I also send private emails to StormW he will answer by return mail. Also Tampa Spin, Kman islander, BAhahurricane, Stormchaser and others will always respond. I will If I can answer your questions, however my knowledge is not at their level yet. Im not a met im an engineer!
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Post 169, Living...
Questions are best directed to an individual here. And they almost always get answered if you do that.
An open question often gets left to someone else, especially in busy times.
Welcome to here. It is a good place to learn...
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Quoting Progster:
Bill's outflow aloft is improving from SW all the way around to SE. It likely is intensifying but doesnt have a lot of time.

Link


Bill has expanded greatly over the last few hours.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 628
Quoting hurricane23:


Heres HPC this morning...

BY DAYS 6 AND 7 HAVE ENHANCED THE DEPICTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE BAHAMAS AND OFF THE FL EAST COAST AS PER OP MODEL SOLUTIONS AND IMPROVING VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALY CHARTS OF EMWF/GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING BETTER CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE WAVE ENTERS THE BAHAMAS REGION. GOOD ENSEMBLE SFC LOW CLUSTERING NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS DAYS 5-7 THU-SAT.
.going out on a limb here,but I looked at these models and in 7 days they show a zonal flow over the U.S.The jet steam is forecast to move north,which usually means the Bermuda high could ridge westward.With the persistent trough that is over the eastern side of the country (which seems to come and go with frequent regularity)out of the picture,it is possible that this set up increases the chances of hurricane development much closer to the S.E. coast of the U.S.,including the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.This post is just an opinion based on similar weather patterns I have seen in the past.
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In regards to GOMEX development, its certainly possible. Here's the current Wind Shear in the GOMEX, pretty low except in the BOC.



In that image an Anti-cyclone is also visible in the Caribbean, so its also possible to see development down there and off the Bahamas.
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Blog Update
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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