Bill intensifies to Category 4; globe has 5th warmest July on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:28 PM GMT on August 19, 2009

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Category 4 Hurricane Bill is now the the fourth strongest tropical cyclone to appear on the planet so far this year, and may grow even stronger. Visible and infrared satellite imagery continue to show an impressive, well-organized, hurricane, with plenty of low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow well-established on all sides except the west. On Bill's west side, upper-level winds from the west are creating a modest 10 knots of wind shear, which is giving the hurricane a bit of a squashed appearance there.

Wind shear is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5-15 knots, for the next four days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will rise steadily from 28.5°C today to 29°C on Friday. Total ocean heat content is at a maximum today, and will gradually decline over the next four days. Bill should be able to take advantage of these favorable conditions a remain a major hurricane the next three days.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Aqua spacecraft at 12:40pm EDT Tuesday August 18, 2009. Image credit: NASA GSFC.

Water vapor satellite loops show a small "short-wave" trough of low pressure to the north-northwest of Bill, and this trough has turned Bill on a more northwesterly track over the past two days. Bill will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the main impact of the hurricane on these islands will be high waves. The short wave trough (so called because it has a relatively small amplitude and wavelength) is not strong enough to turn Bill due north, and Bill is also expected to miss Bermuda. High waves and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph are the worst that Bermuda is likely to get from Bill.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Bill's eye zoomed in, taken from NASA's Aqua spacecraft at 12:40pm EDT Tuesday August 18, 2009. Image credit: NASA GSFC.

An unusually strong "long wave" trough of low pressure (called long wave because of its large amplitude and wavelength) is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week. This trough will turn Bill to the north, and also bring high levels of wind shear in the 40 - 65 knot range on Sunday. Exactly where this turn occurs is still not clear. The models continue to be in two camps: an eastern camp (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF) that takes Bill 300 - 500 miles east of Cape Cod, and a more western camp (NOGAPS, UKMET) that bring Bill within 150 - 200 miles of Cape Cod. Both sets of models bring Bill ashore over the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia. Bill will be weakening rapidly as it makes landfall, and is likely to be a Category 1 hurricane if it hits Nova Scotia, or strong tropical storm if it hits Newfoundland.

Bill's big waves
Large swells from Bill will begin impacting the U.S. East coast from Florida to Maine beginning Friday night or Saturday morning. Seas will build to 5 - 10 feet in the offshore waters from central Florida northwards to South Carolina, and to 10 - 15 feet from North Carolina to Cape Cod. Near shore, waves will be about 40% less. This will cause a significant coastal erosion event along some portions of the coast. The latest run of the NOAA Wavewatch III model suggests that significant wave heights near Bill's center will reach 50 feet on Sunday. Since maximum wave height is typically about a factor of 1.9 greater than the significant wave height (which is the average trough-to-crest height of the top 1/3 largest waves), a few huge waves near Bill's center may reach 95 feet high.

Possible impacts to New England
The current set of computer model runs predicts that the center of Bill will pass Cape Cod, Massachusetts Sunday afternoon or evening. Tropical storm-force sustained winds of 39 mph or greater currently extend out 185 miles to the west of Bill's center, so that if Bill maintains its current wind distribution, Cape Cod could see sustained winds of about 40 mph Sunday night if the models predicting a more westerly path are correct. However, Bill will not keep this same radius of winds. The hurricane will weaken considerably beginning Sunday morning, once the storm gets caught up in the approaching long wave trough. High wind shear of 40 - 65 knots due to strong southwesterly winds aloft will act to compress the hurricane in the east-west direction, keeping the hurricane's strongest winds away from Cape Cod. The highest winds are likely to be no more than 30 mph on Cape Cod from Bill, if the storm follows the track of the western camp of models nearest to the Massachusetts. A few rain squalls may affect coastal Massachusetts, but the main impact of Bill on New England is likely to be coastal erosion from high waves.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The remains of Tropical Storm Ana are bringing scattered heavy rain showers to the Bahamas and Florida today. The remains are disorganized, and are not likely to re-develop. The only model calling for a new tropical cyclone to develop in the Atlantic over the next seven days is the GFS model, which predicts development off the coast of Africa about 7 days from now.

Fifth warmest July on record globally; a cold July in the U.S.
The globe recorded its fifth warmest July since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NOAA rated the period January - July 2009 as the sixth warmest such period on record. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July 2009 as the 2nd warmest July on record, behind July of 1998. For the second month in a row, global ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in July were the warmest on record, 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average. This broke the previous July record set in 1998. The record July SSTs were due in part to an ongoing El Niño event in the Eastern Pacific, which has substantially warmed a large stretch of the tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean. As El Niño conditions mature during the coming months, near-record global ocean and land temperatures will probably continue. Now that El Niño conditions have been well-established for three months, the atmosphere has begun to heat up in response. It typically takes up to seven months for the atmosphere to heat up in response to ocean heating from an El Niño. This may explain why June of 2009, which independent assessments by NOAA, NASA, and the UK Hadley center agreed was the 2nd or 3rd warmest June on record at the surface, recorded only average satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere. In contrast, the July satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere were the 2nd or 3rd warmest on record, in agreement with the assessments that surface temperatures were the 2nd to 5th warmest on record.


Figure 3. Departure of temperature from average for July 2009. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

A cold July for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average July temperature of 23.1°C (73.5°F) was the coolest since 1994, and July temperatures were the 27th coolest in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and West Virginia experienced their coolest ever July. Kentucky, Missouri, Michigan, and Wisconsin recorded their second coolest July in history. A strong trough of low pressure parked itself over the eastern portion of the U.S. in July, funneling down plenty of cold air from Canada. In the western U.S., a ridge of high pressure dominated, bringing unusually hot conditions. Arizona recorded its 3rd warmest July on record, and Seattle, Washington recorded its hottest day in history on July 28, notching a 103°F reading. This was 3°F above the previous record set in 1994.

U.S. precipitation was near average in July, with the month ranking 40th wettest in the 115-year record. U.S. tornado activity was above average in July, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. However, no tornado deaths occurred in July.

At the end of July, 14% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. These extreme drought regions were exclusively in South and Central Texas.

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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so if we found a way to disrupt the circulation of this storm using chemicals/bombs etc, would we call the mission Operation Kill Bill?
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Quoting klaatuborada:


I don't like that word... Stall... no, not at all


It's what the latest model runs are showing, things can change though. Just keep an eye on Bill.
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572. IKE
Quoting reedzone:
12Z EURO has shifted a tad west


Looks the same to me...

00Z ECMWF...

12Z ECMWF...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Don't forget to use a protractor to give you the exact heading...all these tools from 4th grade come in handy.
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Quoting katzanddogz:


I know, Right! LOL Gotta go, check in with ya later.


Yep, they usually do!
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Quoting reedzone:
You guys will soon understand that it will turn NW by tonight or tomorrow as forecast. Not gonna head west either, the upper level low to the NNE of it is steering it more northerly. I'm still sticking to my forecast for it to skirt NE and hit Canada. People need to start preparing up there for the worst. Always good to be prepared even though the center is not forecast to hit you directly.

My forecast as of now.
Photobucket


There's a word on the picture, go find original post, Stall, no, I don't like that word, ... no, not at all
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567. Prgal
Quoting kmanislander:
One easy way I have found to determine the short term track of a storm is to take a sheet of 8x11 paper and line it up with the SW side of the eye of the storm then adjust it until the eye "rolls" along the edge of the paper without deviating out from or below the edge. It will take a few trys to get it set but once you have it you will then be able to see the short term " extrap " that you have created.

I agree that Bill is right of the points now but using the gimmick I have mentioned above I think you will see that the angle of the paper across the screen is still WNW.


I tried it in this loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html
It ended around 305 degrees using the image in post 530.
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Quoting washingaway:


I've been doing that for years, comforting to know I not the only one.


Thats pretty doggone nifty, it works and if everyone did this before posting it might eliminate the ole which way is it going arguement.
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Quoting CloudGatherer:


I appreciate the response, and I hear you. But take a look at the 11AM Discussion:
"THERE WAS A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 132 KNOTS TWO HOURS AGO AND THE SFMR REPORTED PEAK WINDS AROUND 105 KNOTS. DATA FROM THE PLANE ALSO SHOW THAT BILL HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD AND A 30 NMI WIDE EYE. THE LATEST EXTRAPOLATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 950 MB. ALTHOUGH THE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE T-NUMBERS REMAIN AROUND 6.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KT IN THIS ADVISORY.


So there are four data points here pointing to Category 4:
(A) The peak flight level wind of 132kts
(B) Large wind field and large eye
(C) Low extrapolated pressure
(D) Satellite presentation and Dvorak classification

The NHC cites those four factors. But it also restates that the top SFMR winds were only 105kts. If you look back at the track of the aircraft, the top SFMR readings have come consistently in the small sliver of the northeast quadrant that you identify. That's precisely where the 105kts reading came this afternoon. So it looks to me as if, at the same time the satellite image looks good, the pressure is low, the wind field is large, and the flight-level winds are fierce, it's also the case that the SFMR readings are coming in well below expectations. The SFMR wind speeds, being the anomalous datum, were essentially ignored in setting the intensity. And I understand that.

But what I don't get is how the SFMR and the dropsondes could continue to miss the strongest winds over a three-day span. At what point does it become more likely that the actual readings, taken on the spot, are a better reflection of Bill's peak windspeeds?



They also have built in doppler Radar on the hurricane hunting planes that can depict wind speed.
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12Z EURO has shifted a tad west
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Quoting washingaway:


I've been doing that for years, comforting to know I not the only one.


I was never going to openly admit that as well but what the heck. I'm in that number.
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Quoting Floodman:


Yeah, I got one of those too...LOL

It's easier to read when you take a few pks


I know, Right! LOL Gotta go, check in with ya later.
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560. IKE
Quoting sfla82:
Everyone who forecasted alot of rain for S Fla from the remenants of Ana, where way off!!!! No rain at all!!!! LOL! Go figure.


Where's that heavy rain for Miami? It's up here in the panhandle...thunderstorm and 77 outside...here's the Miami radar...they blew that forecast big-time...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
wnw/nw, who cares?

the main thing is it's moving slightly to the right of the NHC forecast point.

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Quoting atmoaggie:

The only response I have to this off-hand is that few of our remote systems and model are realtime enough for the HHunters to get out there and sample exactly the same thing in the same spot that thoses systems saw.
Plus, the maximum intenisty put together by the multiplatfor wind analysis, below, and others, show a tiny sliver of data over 110 knots. That part of Bill could have ebbed, split, moved, any number of possibilites in between the time it was sampled and the Hhunters arrived on scene.
Addendum: And see post 435.


I appreciate the response, and I hear you. But take a look at the 11AM Discussion:
"THERE WAS A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 132 KNOTS TWO HOURS AGO AND THE SFMR REPORTED PEAK WINDS AROUND 105 KNOTS. DATA FROM THE PLANE ALSO SHOW THAT BILL HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD AND A 30 NMI WIDE EYE. THE LATEST EXTRAPOLATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 950 MB. ALTHOUGH THE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE T-NUMBERS REMAIN AROUND 6.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KT IN THIS ADVISORY.


So there are four data points here pointing to Category 4:
(A) The peak flight level wind of 132kts
(B) Large wind field and large eye
(C) Low extrapolated pressure
(D) Satellite presentation and Dvorak classification

The NHC cites those four factors. But it also restates that the top SFMR winds were only 105kts. If you look back at the track of the aircraft, the top SFMR readings have come consistently in the small sliver of the northeast quadrant that you identify. That's precisely where the 105kts reading came this afternoon. So it looks to me as if, at the same time the satellite image looks good, the pressure is low, the wind field is large, and the flight-level winds are fierce, it's also the case that the SFMR readings are coming in well below expectations. The SFMR wind speeds, being the anomalous datum, were essentially ignored in setting the intensity. And I understand that.

But what I don't get is how the SFMR and the dropsondes could continue to miss the strongest winds over a three-day span. At what point does it become more likely that the actual readings, taken on the spot, are a better reflection of Bill's peak windspeeds?

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By the time the NHC's discussion comes out its already atleast an hour old. So to say that their statements are incorrect is very naiive. Do you really think that they just got done typing that and hit a magic "Post Comment" button and it is available to the general public? Give me a break! LOL
Quoting Dakster:


You must be in your own little micro-climate. I, too, hope for the best. At the moment I am very confident that SE FL is out of any danger.

Ohh, and I get the same thing here only it is my back and front yard. (no snow though) I can be raining in the front yard, but not the back yard and vice versa.


LOL! I had that happen on the Eastern Shore of Maryland. My brother and I were driving and on the right was snow, and the left sun. Just an ocean snow squall, but we were right on the line. Too funny. And yes, our own little micro-climate and we don't have a local tv channel nor a weather person specific to the Cod. Why do you think I come here? I predict the weather better than the papers, or the weathermen from Boston or Providence, we've got nothing else!
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Quoting kmanislander:
One easy way I have found to determine the short term track of a storm is to take a sheet of 8x11 paper and line it up with the SW side of the eye of the storm then adjust it until the eye "rolls" along the edge of the paper without deviating out from or below the edge. It will take a few trys to get it set but once you have it you will then be able to see the short term " extrap " that you have created.

I agree that Bill is right of the points now but using the gimmick I have mentioned above I think you will see that the angle of the paper across the screen is still WNW.



I've been doing that for years, comforting to know I not the only one.
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1144
Quoting kmanislander:
One easy way I have found to determine the short term track of a storm is to take a sheet of 8x11 paper and line it up with the SW side of the eye of the storm then adjust it until the eye "rolls" along the edge of the paper without deviating out from or below the edge. It will take a few trys to get it set but once you have it you will then be able to see the short term " extrap " that you have created.

I agree that Bill is right of the points now but using the gimmick I have mentioned above I think you will see that the angle of the paper across the screen is still WNW.



Thanks Kmanislander, still moving WNW..
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Everyone who forecasted alot of rain for S Fla from the remenants of Ana, where way off!!!! No rain at all!!!! LOL! Go figure.
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Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


Bill

Bill

AOI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
You guys will soon understand that it will turn NW by tonight or tomorrow as forecast. Not gonna head west either, the upper level low to the NNE of it is steering it more northerly. I'm still sticking to my forecast for it to skirt NE and hit Canada. People need to start preparing up there for the worst. Always good to be prepared even though the center is not forecast to hit you directly.

My forecast as of now.
Photobucket
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550. IKE
12Z ECMWF....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
Since I am new here to this blog this year, can you tell me why some post show and some don't? I can see some and then there are those that show just the username and not the post...

Those would be ones that fail to meet your filter level based on the poster's score...determined by the '+' and '-' at the top of the post. There are a number here that I do not see with the "show bad" filter setting, which means that all but the worst posters' musings are shown to me by default.

Only folks that have accumulated a lot of '-' hits are hidden. Newbs are visible, so I figure the show bad only hides the worst kind, the infectious type we would collectively be happier without.
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Quoting reedzone:


Nope, still WNW.. Even the NHC discussion says it's moving WNW.


Looks WNW to me, too.
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18Z XTRP is showing very slightly W of NW
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Quoting BenBIogger:

Thanks P451



I was in a dart leauge once myself. Those were the good ole days.
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One easy way I have found to determine the short term track of a storm is to take a sheet of 8x11 paper and line it up with the SW side of the eye of the storm then adjust it until the eye "rolls" along the edge of the paper without deviating out from or below the edge. It will take a few trys to get it set but once you have it you will then be able to see the short term " extrap " that you have created.

I agree that Bill is right of the points now but using the gimmick I have mentioned above I think you will see that the angle of the paper across the screen is still WNW.

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I Caught this image when bill's eye was developing, the eye at first seemed split apart sending one half out towards the outer bands just to bring it back in and rejoin to make one.





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If you look at the discussion, Bill's motion is put at 300 degrees...which is just barely in the range of "west northwest"....WNW is 292.5 degrees, NW is 315.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
All of a sudden you are listening to the NHC and before when they said it was going WNW you were saying no it's going W. I don't mean today but I think Monday night.


Your confusing me with someone else. There were lots of people saying ti was heading west. It's been heading West-Northwest since Sunday. Also with Hurricanes, the track points are normally on the south part of the eye. Hurricane centers are on the south part fo the eye.
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540. 7544
if he keeps this up and wnw all bets might be off lol
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539. IKE
Quoting P451:


No, it's not. Watch a satellite loop with L&L overlaid in addition to the forecast points.

It is moving at 310 degrees if not 315.


On the loop it starts out at 18.7N and 50.7W. It ends at 19.4N and 51.9W. Moved .7N and 1.2 W. It's moving slightly north of a WNW motion.

I would say it's moving at about a 305 degree angle.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting StormChaser81:


The data could have been during an eye wall cycle and winds might not be as high during these cycles.


That's a very good point. The eye was open to the SW in both vortex fixes from the last mission - the first one elliptical, the second one circular.

And I don't suppose there is another flight today. In any event, Bill is not getting any less interesting with the passage of time.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Bill is about the most "classic" looking hurricane since Isabel. We are very lucky it is forecast to thread the needle and pass well west of Bermuda and not bring destructive winds to the east coast. A little concerned about Nova Scotia, hope it doesn't turn into a Halifax howler!



Gustav was pretty neat last year, before land interaction with Cuba and wind shear soon after toppled his chimney.


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Thanks for the coords!
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535. Prgal
Quoting reedzone:
000
AXNT20 KNHC 191802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE BILL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. THE EYE OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED 18.7N 56.3W...OR
ABOUT 380 MILES/610 KM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...AND ABOUT 1080 MILES/1735 KM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA. BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST 16 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
BILL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 80 MILES/130 KM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES/280 KM PRIMARILY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO GO FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 28N BETWEEN
48W AND 61W.


That was an hour ago!
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Quoting reedzone:


Nope, still WNW.. Even the NHC discussion says it's moving WNW.
All of a sudden you are listening to the NHC and before when they said it was going WNW you were saying no it's going W. I don't mean today but I think Monday night.
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533. Prgal
Ooops! Another broken loop...P451's. He is seeing the same thing!
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Bill is about the most "classic" looking hurricane since Isabel. We are very lucky it is forecast to thread the needle and pass well west of Bermuda and not bring destructive winds to the east coast. A little concerned about Nova Scotia, hope it doesn't turn into a Halifax howler!


They don't need another Jean that's for sure.
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Quoting P451:


No, it's not. Watch a satellite loop with L&L overlaid in addition to the forecast points.

It is moving at 310 degrees if not 315.


I agree NW
Member Since: July 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1144

Thanks P451

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 191802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE BILL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. THE EYE OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED 18.7N 56.3W...OR
ABOUT 380 MILES/610 KM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...AND ABOUT 1080 MILES/1735 KM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF BERMUDA. BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST 16 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
BILL IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 80 MILES/130 KM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES/280 KM PRIMARILY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. PLEASE READ THE LATEST FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO GO FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 28N BETWEEN
48W AND 61W.

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This is NOT good and all I can hope for is that this is a wobble. It seems to be moving to the right side of the cone which takes it straight to Bermuda is anyone looking at this?
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527. Prgal
Quoting reedzone:


Nope, still WNW.. Even the NHC discussion says it's moving WNW.

At 11am...that was 4 hours ago. Maybe it started the turn, I dont know. That or my loops are broken...and Ike's too.
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What are the current long/lat coords for Bill?
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hurricanejunky and I are right now enjoying a frozen Margarita at Jimmy Buffet's in downtown Key West.

It has been very cool to hang with fellow WU bloggers / chasers today.

Across the street is the NBC News Channel 6 Hurricane Hummer...so we were not the only ones in town today doing our thing! It really is a pretty cool vehicle, very colorful and obviously functional.

IKE, we have seen your recent post and tend to agree. We seem to think that Bill will be moving east of the current guidance. How far east...well I'll find out first hand this weekend as I have decided to use the Bermuda ticket. I'll leave at 6AM tomorrow and be there tomorrow PM.

In the meantime, frozen Margaritas are flowing and we're not in any hurry to leave such a beautiful place on such a beautiful day here in the tropics.
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524. Prgal
Quoting reedzone:


Nope, still WNW.. Even the NHC discussion says it's moving WNW.

At 11am...that was 4 hours ago. Maybe it started the turn, I dont know. That or my loops are broken...and Ike's too.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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