Bill intensifies to Category 4; globe has 5th warmest July on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:28 PM GMT on August 19, 2009

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Category 4 Hurricane Bill is now the the fourth strongest tropical cyclone to appear on the planet so far this year, and may grow even stronger. Visible and infrared satellite imagery continue to show an impressive, well-organized, hurricane, with plenty of low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow well-established on all sides except the west. On Bill's west side, upper-level winds from the west are creating a modest 10 knots of wind shear, which is giving the hurricane a bit of a squashed appearance there.

Wind shear is forecast to remain low to moderate, 5-15 knots, for the next four days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) will rise steadily from 28.5°C today to 29°C on Friday. Total ocean heat content is at a maximum today, and will gradually decline over the next four days. Bill should be able to take advantage of these favorable conditions a remain a major hurricane the next three days.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image from NASA's Aqua spacecraft at 12:40pm EDT Tuesday August 18, 2009. Image credit: NASA GSFC.

Water vapor satellite loops show a small "short-wave" trough of low pressure to the north-northwest of Bill, and this trough has turned Bill on a more northwesterly track over the past two days. Bill will miss the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the main impact of the hurricane on these islands will be high waves. The short wave trough (so called because it has a relatively small amplitude and wavelength) is not strong enough to turn Bill due north, and Bill is also expected to miss Bermuda. High waves and sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph are the worst that Bermuda is likely to get from Bill.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Bill's eye zoomed in, taken from NASA's Aqua spacecraft at 12:40pm EDT Tuesday August 18, 2009. Image credit: NASA GSFC.

An unusually strong "long wave" trough of low pressure (called long wave because of its large amplitude and wavelength) is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week. This trough will turn Bill to the north, and also bring high levels of wind shear in the 40 - 65 knot range on Sunday. Exactly where this turn occurs is still not clear. The models continue to be in two camps: an eastern camp (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF) that takes Bill 300 - 500 miles east of Cape Cod, and a more western camp (NOGAPS, UKMET) that bring Bill within 150 - 200 miles of Cape Cod. Both sets of models bring Bill ashore over the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia. Bill will be weakening rapidly as it makes landfall, and is likely to be a Category 1 hurricane if it hits Nova Scotia, or strong tropical storm if it hits Newfoundland.

Bill's big waves
Large swells from Bill will begin impacting the U.S. East coast from Florida to Maine beginning Friday night or Saturday morning. Seas will build to 5 - 10 feet in the offshore waters from central Florida northwards to South Carolina, and to 10 - 15 feet from North Carolina to Cape Cod. Near shore, waves will be about 40% less. This will cause a significant coastal erosion event along some portions of the coast. The latest run of the NOAA Wavewatch III model suggests that significant wave heights near Bill's center will reach 50 feet on Sunday. Since maximum wave height is typically about a factor of 1.9 greater than the significant wave height (which is the average trough-to-crest height of the top 1/3 largest waves), a few huge waves near Bill's center may reach 95 feet high.

Possible impacts to New England
The current set of computer model runs predicts that the center of Bill will pass Cape Cod, Massachusetts Sunday afternoon or evening. Tropical storm-force sustained winds of 39 mph or greater currently extend out 185 miles to the west of Bill's center, so that if Bill maintains its current wind distribution, Cape Cod could see sustained winds of about 40 mph Sunday night if the models predicting a more westerly path are correct. However, Bill will not keep this same radius of winds. The hurricane will weaken considerably beginning Sunday morning, once the storm gets caught up in the approaching long wave trough. High wind shear of 40 - 65 knots due to strong southwesterly winds aloft will act to compress the hurricane in the east-west direction, keeping the hurricane's strongest winds away from Cape Cod. The highest winds are likely to be no more than 30 mph on Cape Cod from Bill, if the storm follows the track of the western camp of models nearest to the Massachusetts. A few rain squalls may affect coastal Massachusetts, but the main impact of Bill on New England is likely to be coastal erosion from high waves.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The remains of Tropical Storm Ana are bringing scattered heavy rain showers to the Bahamas and Florida today. The remains are disorganized, and are not likely to re-develop. The only model calling for a new tropical cyclone to develop in the Atlantic over the next seven days is the GFS model, which predicts development off the coast of Africa about 7 days from now.

Fifth warmest July on record globally; a cold July in the U.S.
The globe recorded its fifth warmest July since record keeping began in 1880, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. NOAA rated the period January - July 2009 as the sixth warmest such period on record. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July 2009 as the 2nd warmest July on record, behind July of 1998. For the second month in a row, global ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in July were the warmest on record, 0.59°C (1.06°F) above the 20th century average. This broke the previous July record set in 1998. The record July SSTs were due in part to an ongoing El Niño event in the Eastern Pacific, which has substantially warmed a large stretch of the tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean. As El Niño conditions mature during the coming months, near-record global ocean and land temperatures will probably continue. Now that El Niño conditions have been well-established for three months, the atmosphere has begun to heat up in response. It typically takes up to seven months for the atmosphere to heat up in response to ocean heating from an El Niño. This may explain why June of 2009, which independent assessments by NOAA, NASA, and the UK Hadley center agreed was the 2nd or 3rd warmest June on record at the surface, recorded only average satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere. In contrast, the July satellite-measured temperatures in the lower atmosphere were the 2nd or 3rd warmest on record, in agreement with the assessments that surface temperatures were the 2nd to 5th warmest on record.


Figure 3. Departure of temperature from average for July 2009. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

A cold July for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., the average July temperature of 23.1°C (73.5°F) was the coolest since 1994, and July temperatures were the 27th coolest in the 115-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Iowa, and West Virginia experienced their coolest ever July. Kentucky, Missouri, Michigan, and Wisconsin recorded their second coolest July in history. A strong trough of low pressure parked itself over the eastern portion of the U.S. in July, funneling down plenty of cold air from Canada. In the western U.S., a ridge of high pressure dominated, bringing unusually hot conditions. Arizona recorded its 3rd warmest July on record, and Seattle, Washington recorded its hottest day in history on July 28, notching a 103°F reading. This was 3°F above the previous record set in 1994.

U.S. precipitation was near average in July, with the month ranking 40th wettest in the 115-year record. U.S. tornado activity was above average in July, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. However, no tornado deaths occurred in July.

At the end of July, 14% of the contiguous United States was in moderate-to-exceptional drought. This is a drop from the 19% figure observed at the beginning of the year. These extreme drought regions were exclusively in South and Central Texas.

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting presslord:


just to wrap this up...I don't WISH death on anyone either...but..ya pays yo money...and ya takes yo chances...

GEEZ, Gonna choose my words more carefully from now on. I used bad wording and this took off in a whole different direction.

My point was:

Quoting Chicklit:

Exqueeze me. But it is a mariner's responsibility to himself and those on board to look at weather conditions before he/she leaves port. Very old rule. Recall the NFL guys that were capsized in the Gulf. 2/3 didn't make it.

(me)
"I agree whole heartedly. I never head to the Gulf with(out) knowing what's going on, but the person asking the question was NOT the person on the boat, but a concerned family member."

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UPDATE POSTED:
South Florida StormWatch
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1622. 7544
lloks west to me look at the convection reaching 62 west too
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I WANT TO KNOW, WHAT SAY THE MODELS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
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All I will say is that if Nova Scotia is not used to this kind of event they better get a crash course on preparedness and surviving hurricanes because it is not expected to be extratropical by the time it gets there. The stronger it gets the stronger they will get it pethaps even at Cat 2 range... Nova Scotia residents get ready it looks like this one is targeting you and I'll keep you all on my prayers.
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1618. centex
Little major storm info while watching track of Bill. The main problem for millions of people for Ike was the lose of power for nearly a week. No AC and internet to pay bills really caused problems. While folks on barrier islands got devastated they built or bought homes in harms way. I know people buying up the flatten tracks because cheap and they are willing to take the risk. Sure they will rebuild stronger. Most of them left and all the stories are about the few who stayed and survived it.

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ignore this i hit quote instead of modify
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Only a complete moron would have called Bill a fish storm since this system started.


Amen to that. I never understood why they called Bill a fish storm when it was over a WEEK out.

Models are the gospel at +3 days IMO.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Bill looks to be having an EWRC. He'll likely maintain his current intensity for a little while while this is occurring. Well, off to bed. Another early day tomorrow, hooya Navy!
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Press is testy tonight. Hope I don't say or do anything stupid -- I might be marked for a "gene pool purge". Back to Bill, what forces are likely to weaken him, and how strong might he be, before he hits Maine and/or the Atlantic Provinces (assuming the models hold)? Could he still be a Cat 3-4? Or more likely Cat 1-2? Or even just a tropical storm? Seems like with his projected path, his strength may have peaked. Could he still pop up even stronger?
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Quoting SCwannabe:


wishcasting??


i don't see how the person you are responding to is incorrect. Bill has definitely jogged a big more to the west, but I don't think it's more than a jog. The eye has decreased in size and looks somewhat more ragged. This probably means it is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle which in strong hurricanes frequently causes "jogging."
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Quoting SCwannabe:


wishcasting??


It is wobble doofus why is that wishcacting ...GEEZ!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Guess we cant call Bill a fish storm anymore if it does that.


Only a complete moron would have called Bill a fish storm since this system started.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Definition:
Lapse in Judgement (LiJ):
Fishing between W. Ship Island and Cat Island
see big storm head in so go to pier on Ship Island
Watch boats get tossed about
go back to fishing after storm passes

LiJ: not going straight in after storm and finding notes from home on all four of our windshields telling us to call home IMMEDIATELY (4 hours after storm)
found out later couple of boats had actually sunk and there were waterspouts, all near shore
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1608. tkeith
The SSt's are gonna cool down before Bills gets to Canada's estern most provinces. The strength of the storm would be a somewaht rare event even if it weakens. the more the word gets out of the potential dangers there the better...Nova Scotia aint NOLA...n'oreasters are not uncommon but a Cat 2 or 3 cane woud not be something the folks up there are NOT accustom to dealing with.

Chances are it maybe extratropical by then.

BTW, where is the ace tonight?
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Quoting IKE:
Inland in 4 days.....not in the USA.....



Guess we cant call Bill a fish storm anymore if it does that.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting Weatherkid27:
Bill jogging West on visible


wishcasting??
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Quoting Stoopid1:


I don't wish death on anyone either, but a little bit of common sense would go a long way in something like that.


just to wrap this up...I don't WISH death on anyone either...but..ya pays yo money...and ya takes yo chances...
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000
WTNT43 KNHC 200246
TCDAT3
HURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST WED AUG 19 2009

DATA FROM A NOAA AIRCRAFT FLYING A RESEARCH MISSION INTO BILL
INDICATE THAT IT IS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY. THE AIRCRAFT
REPORTED PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 140 KT...AND
A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL MEASURED A MEAN
WIND OF 134 KT OVER THE THE LOWEST 150 METERS OF SOUNDING. THE
SFMR MEASURED A PEAK SURFACE WINDS OF 108 KT. USING A BLEND OF
THESE DATA SUPPORT A 115 KT INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.

BILL IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 305/15. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP IT ON THIS GENERAL
COURSE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...A BREAK IN THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND BILL
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
BY THE WEEKEND. OVERALL...THE TRACK MODELS HAVE SHOWN GOOD
CONSISTENCY DURING THE LAST DAY OR TWO...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WHICH REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
GUIDANCE. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND ONLY A SLIGHT WESTWARD
ADJUSTMENT WAS REQUIRED THEREAFTER. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER
THAT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE LONGER RANGES...SO ONE
SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.

BILL IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG 70W
MAY CAUSE IN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS
THAT THE SHEAR WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE HURRICANE STRONG DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AFTER 72 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THE STRONG TROUGH AND COOLING SSTS SHOULD IMPART A MORE RAPID RATE
OF WEAKENING. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW BILL BEGINNING TO INTERACT
WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE BY 96 HOURS...SO THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL A LITTLE SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA AND MOST OF THE EASTERN
U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR
MORE DETAILS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 20.7N 58.9W 115 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 22.1N 60.9W 120 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 24.1N 63.4W 125 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 26.6N 65.6W 120 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 29.4N 67.5W 120 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 36.0N 69.0W 105 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 45.0N 62.5W 75 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 25/0000Z 53.0N 44.5W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL




bill is no longer a fish storm it will make land fall in
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1603. IKE
Inland in 4 days.....not in the USA.....

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Bill jogging West on visible
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looks like an eyewall replacement cycle is under way
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Quoting Dakster:


And this is coming from someone whose handle is "Stoopid1"...

I agree you shouldn't go out boating in a Hurricane, but I still wouldn't wish death to the people that did, regardless of the reason. Also, if I COULD save them I WOULD save them even if it meant putting myself in harms way (to some extent). There are natural events that will prevent even law enforcement and search/rescue teams from going out in. I am sure that a cat 4/5 Hurricane out in the ocean is one of them. Once it is over, the search/rescue/retrieval can begin.


I don't wish death on anyone either, but a little bit of common sense would go a long way in something like that.
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I'm speculating if I'm gonna wake up to a Category 5 storm in the Atlantic in the morning.
Bill should continue a NW path for 24-48 hours.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
Thank you adkinsadam1.
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Quoting centex:
I blame the category system on that. It had cat 5 strom surge. They did'nt realize wrong choice until surge came in big and early and that was too late.


The problem is that people do not understand that a Cat 5 Which is downgraded to Cat 3 so close to the coast in an area like the GOMEX is not the same as a Cat 1 that grows to be a Cat 3. There is a lot of Kinetic energy stored in a downgraded Cat three such as in Katrina which came ashore with a surge of a Cat 5 even when its wind where in the Cat three area. People tend to underestimate Hurricanes unless they are Cat 4 or 5 and they do not take these other factors into consideration.
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How did bill intensify it looks so awful
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The NHC is right on this one!! Those guys are awesome!!
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Quoting presslord:


Oh for Christ's sake!!!! A 'lapse in judgement' is putting on one black shoe and one brown shoe early in the morning with a hangover...going out into a Cat 4 hurricane in a boat is just stupid...


Exactly. Kind of hard to have a 'lapse in judgment' on something like that. Doing that would be more along the lines of negligence.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Example.. Galveston.. leave or die... people stayed.. heck they partied on the pier, we watched them on TV.
partied til they passed out. had no clue the deck walk to the pier was ripped off. Texas law makers are trying to or have already past a law stating in the event of a mandatory hurricane evacuation being issued and you do not leave when told to you can be arrested and taken to safety and you can't do anything about it. They will arrest or restrain you from putting yourself in harms way. Really don't think that will be an issue for a while.
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Rare you in this mess??
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1590. 7544
Quoting reedzone:
So I pointed my mouse pointer on the eye of Bill on the ramsdis floater. I clicked refresh to get an updated image and it seems that the eye has jogged due west, most likely a jog then a trend. Though interesting to note that.


seen that notice how the convection is over 62 also ponting west and the eye flatenes out aliitle
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Bill has made a jog westward especially since his heaviest convection is displaced on the western side of his circulation. I believe an EWRC is underway and expect Bill to strengthen to a 150mph hurricane by 5am Friday before wind shear arrives with the trough over the eastern US at that time. Questions remain about his final destination, but at this time I will continue to monitor is progess and tracks from the NHC. I live on Cape Cod, MA and know too well how unpredictable hurricanes are. All I have to remember is what happened in 1996 with Hurricane Edouard. He was forecasted to hit Cape Cod, MA. I was roughly 7 or 8 years old and in my renovated sun room still in progress with my grandparents visiting. My grandfather had a battle with kidney stones at the time. We had a hurricane party during the storm as we got some rain and what not but he decided to jog or do a complete turn to the east. He essentially made it to within 90 miles SE of Nantucket, MA on his closest pass. He was a much smaller storm then Bill is as well. He was a medium sized category four storm of 145mph winds near Bill's location I believe.
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Goodnight all

I am at 22 north, so am glad to see Bill at 20.7 and still heading North of West.

CRS
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Quoting StormW:


That was a joke...I was just kidding...I was in the Coast Guard for 20 years, 4 months.

Thats right! I forgot. Pardon me I've been staring at this thing for almost the entire day. I think its time to get some rest
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OK new topic. What just happened to Bill's eye? Is this a replacement cycle or has the N to S shear increased that much?
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000
WTNT33 KNHC 200244
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1100 PM AST WED AUG 19 2009

...BILL MAINTAINING CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.9 WEST OR ABOUT 315 MILES...
505 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 880 MILES...1415
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

BILL IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA AIRCRAFT
RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL BE IMPACTING THE ISLANDS OF
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SEA...THE BAHAMAS...AND BERMUDA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL SHOULD ALSO
BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...20.7N 58.9W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
Projected Path as of 8 pm:
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
1583. WxLogic
Quoting reedzone:
So I pointed my mouse pointer on the eye of Bill on the ramsdis floater. I clicked refresh to get an updated image and it seems that the eye has jogged due west, most likely a jog then a trend. Though interesting to note that.


It's just getting "squashed" by the wall (DLM High) to its N to NW... you can see it on Sat... it looks like a pancake... I guess I'm getting hungry.
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1582. jdjnola
Quoting reedzone:
So I pointed my mouse pointer on the eye of Bill on the ramsdis floater. I clicked refresh to get an updated image and it seems that the eye has jogged due west, most likely a jog then a trend. though interesting to note that.


If Bill is indeed weakening due to an EWRC, he could very well be laying off the poleward movement and moving more westerly. However I ate crow on the westerly movement the other day so I'm just saying it's a possibility at this point.
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1581. zuglie
Quoting reedzone:
So I pointed my mouse pointer on the eye of Bill on the ramsdis floater. I clicked refresh to get an updated image and it seems that the eye has jogged due west, most likely a jog then a trend. Though interesting to note that.


I Agree its seems to have jogged to the west. There are some models forcasting for Bill to slow down and get pushed more west by the High
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Quoting StormW:


Thank you.


And as I previously stated, they will continue to inch farther West.
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Quoting presslord:


Oh for Christ's sake!!!! A 'lapse in judgement' is putting on one black shoe and one brown shoe early in the morning with a hangover...going out into a Cat 4 hurricane in a boat is just stupid...


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Quoting WeatherCurious:
I am not sure how to ask this question and it is probably a very silly one, but I was wondering why individual thunderstorms form/develop where they do? I mean why is this cloud building up in this section of town and not the next section of town over? Is it hotter or colder at a certain location? Oh and I am not referring to the highs/lows mixing. I have that general idea down. I am referring to individual clouds. Sorry if this is not making sense I tried to make it as clear as possible.


Boundary collisions such as outflow from other storms or winds. Air masses collide in various locations. The more CAPE the more severe your storms will be. The more shear the more severe your storms will be. High CAPE values and high shear values along with big time dewpoints will get severe storms rockin' all over the place.
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Quoting presslord:


Oh for Christ's sake!!!! A 'lapse in judgement' is putting on one black shoe and one brown shoe early in the morning with a hangover...going out into a Cat 4 hurricane in a boat is just stupid...


BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! I am keeping that somewhere..
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
Almost like Pete Bouchard is nervious. I feel the same way!
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So I pointed my mouse pointer on the eye of Bill on the ramsdis floater. I clicked refresh to get an updated image and it seems that the eye has jogged due west, most likely a jog then a trend. Though interesting to note that.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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