Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on August 17, 2009

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Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.

The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).


Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.

Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.

It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.


Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.

Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.

Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.

A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting largeeyes:
The historical map is very interesting. Cat 1 and 2 hurricanes within 200 miles of where Bill is shows a majority end up as fish/bermuda storms.


The combination of favorable climatology, along with the model support, makes me believe Bill really is staying east of the U.S. Still a long way to go, though.
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373. jipmg
Quoting 7544:
could ana catch up with blob in front here and add to her convection


who knows
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Quoting Drakoen:


It's a single operational model. I'm testing out this new upgrade.


Just do better than CLP5 and you will be judged "skillful".
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371. jipmg
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Looks like Bill might be entraining a little dry air in recent frames on the rainbow imagery...is that something else?

Side note: watched a couple specials on TWC during Cane week and caught the one about Camille. Something that really stood out and I hadn't heard before was a Navy ship's log during Camille. It was caught in the middle of the storm and I think it was a battle ship or some other huge vessel. The log said: "Anemometer broke at 200 knots." Can you imagine that? 200 freakin' knots?!?!?! WOW!


its an eye wall restructuring, most hurricanes do that at this part of there life
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370. 7544
could ana catch up with blob in front here and add to her convection
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The historical map is very interesting. Cat 1 and 2 hurricanes within 200 miles of where Bill is shows a majority end up as fish/bermuda storms.
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Looks like Bill might be entraining a little dry air in recent frames on the rainbow imagery...is that something else?

Side note: watched a couple specials on TWC during Cane week and caught the one about Camille. Something that really stood out and I hadn't heard before was a Navy ship's log during Camille. It was caught in the middle of the storm and I think it was a battle ship or some other huge vessel. The log said: "Anemometer broke at 200 knots." Can you imagine that? 200 freakin' knots?!?!?! WOW!
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Quoting WatchingThisOne:
"SHIPS brings Ana to 83 mph in 96 hours"

Can someone please refresh my memory as to which track model SHIPS intensity is based on? I seem to remember BAMD ... but often remember incorrectly :-)


Once the NHC starts issuing forecasts, SHIPS uses the NHC track.
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I noticed for our local weather in Jacksonville on Wunderground, they have a 50% chance of rain on Thursday and under that in red letters it has Tropical Depression Ana. Obviously there is a chance for Ana to do something to affect Florida. That will be the weather I'm going to watch, much closer to home.
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.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM MON...VERY LIMITED CVRG OF CONVECTION EXPECTED THU
INTO FRI AS UPR RDG CONTS OVER THE AREA. KEPT SMALL POPS IN MAINLY
DURING AFTN ASSOC WITH INLAND TRF AND SEA BRZ. COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW SAT AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY CROSS EARLY
SUNDAY. WENT WITH CHC POPS FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF FRONT...LOWERED POPS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS FRONT CROSSES.
TROPICAL CYCLONE BILL IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL E OF
THE REGION LATE SAT AND SUN. OTHER THAN LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND
ASSOCIATED SURF/RIP CURRENT THREATS ALONG THE CST...NOT EXPECTING
ANY OTHER IMPACTS GIVEN THIS TRACK...PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS
SYSTEM.


.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 9 AM MON...VERY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND 1-3 FOOT SEAS ACROSS
THE MARINE AREA. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. NO CHANGES NEEDED.

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE MARINE AREA FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT GRADIENT WITH WINDS LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS GENERALLY 3 FEET OR LESS. WILL FORECAST THE
RARE VARIABLE WINDS ON THE SOUNDS AND NORTHERN WATERS TODAY. FLOW
BECOMES SW TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH LATE WEEK. LOCAL SWAN
MODEL AGAIN INITIALIZED BOTH WAVE HEIGHTS AND PERIODS WELL AND
FOLLOWED IN THE SHORT TERM.

GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING LONG PERIOD SWELL ENERGY TO ARRIVE
FRIDAY (14 TO 16 SECONDS) AND BUILDING SATURDAY (16 TO 20 SEC) IN
ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS ANA AND BILL NOW IN THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC. WAVEWATCH BUILDS COMBINED SEAS TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STATUS BY SATURDAY...WHICH IS BEYOND THE CURRENT
FORECAST. WILL ALSO LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED RIP CURRENT
THREAT WITH THE COMBINATION OF THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.


.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.-- End Changed Discussion --
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and after all that!!....a rain maker and a fish...and still dry in Cayman...send some of that rain here....
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11:15AM EDT/15:15UTC FOR BILL:



My new blog gives my take on the current topics:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/IpswichWeatherCenter/comment.html?entrynum=23

Anyway - Any news on damages yet?
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Ok, I think I have found the culprit for the UKMET's deviation from the rest of the models.

and interestingly enough... It has to do with Guirerrmo out in the EPAC and the remainders of Claudette.

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Quoting WxLogic:
12Z GFS running... doesn't appear to be initializing Ana and/or associated vorticity correctly so unfortunately won't be too much help here.


I saw that looking at the 850mb vort maximum
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I knew it felt quieter in here lol.
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Seems like Ana will be nothing more than a summer afternoon soaking..
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11am Model Runs for Bill for those joining us. Bermuda hit possible, Florida to North Carolina deadly rip currents.



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Quoting Buhdog:
Drak,

Can I ask a question? Are you making an attempt to be a kindler/Gentler Drak? I have enjoyed your dry humor/sarcasm over the last couple of seasons.... Seems as if you are making a concerted effort to be nicer. :) Sorry if i jumped in like a troll..been a member for over 4 years and still love it...

Anas Track slightly moved east up the west coast of fl SFWMD
http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=3194,21328260,3194_21169358:3194_21178594:3194_21206144:319 4_21206152&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL






I just do me. It's either you like it or you don't.
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Quoting CatastrophicDL:
BTW good morning! I just wanted to say how nice it is to have only mature individuals posting this morning! And to keep it on topic - I think Ana will surprise us in the GOM!


Admin did some house cleaning apparently.
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12Z GFS running... doesn't appear to be initializing Ana and/or associated vorticity correctly so unfortunately won't be too much help here.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4927
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Without the A there is no consensus or ensemble. Difficult to judge model error without that.


It's a single operational model. I'm testing out this new upgrade.
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Drak,

Can I ask a question? Are you making an attempt to be a kindler/Gentler Drak? I have enjoyed your dry humor/sarcasm over the last couple of seasons.... Seems as if you are making a concerted effort to be nicer. :) Sorry if i jumped in like a troll..been a member for over 4 years and still love it...

Anas Track slightly moved east up the west coast of fl SFWMD
http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=3194,21328260,3194_21169358:3194_21178594:3194_21206144:319 4_21206152&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL




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Quoting MeterologistDewon9:
Also, can someone provide me the link to the ECWMF Model and the UKMET model please...Also the link to the steering forecast will be great, I lost my favorites..
Sorry I don't have the UKMET, but I have this steering forecast Link. Just click to animate. It also does the shear & precipitation forecast.
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349. CJ5
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I think when it reaches near the coast of DR it will take a sharp turn to the left develop go over the western most side of Haiti then turn WNW and go through Cuba as a 50 mph TS and get back over water as a TD then hit NOLA as a Cat 5


Fixed....if your going to make something up go big!
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A meteorologist from SC just told that most of the spaghetti models agree that it will continue moving NW for the next five days, and that it leaves it to our southeast. He doesn't even think it will recurve out to sea at all.
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Ana is like an Ex girlfriend. She can't get it that it's over
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I think Bill will bounce back & forth between w/wnw, if it is still still below 15 or 15N at 55W, then I think the N leewards better keep an eye on Bill, Ana on the other hand looks be forming a new COC SE of PR slightly south, anywhere from the Western Caribbean , the gulf , florida, Bahamas should keep an eye on ana imo.
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Quoting Drakoen:
I'm using the DAM (A excluded) model to track this system


Without the A there is no consensus or ensemble. Difficult to judge model error without that.
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Quoting jpsb:
Ike check this out, my favorite resource. http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/satfloat.html


thanks lost my link to that one, you saved me a trip to google ;-) ... it's a great site
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Quoting PcolaDan:

Something overlooked quite often by inland people. They tend to ignore the tropics because they can't get hit by a hurricane. Many a time tropical systems have done more damage inland than along the coast due to heavy rains and flooding.


I'm wondering if Ana/remanant of Ana might have some flooding rains in store for someone down the road...
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To say that you are in the clear of a storm before it has passed your longitude is dangerous..and even that does not make you in the clear. How many storms have done complete turn arounds and came right back. It has been a proven fact that storms do whatever they feel like doing and are not bound to follow predictions of any kind. Human error and especially technological errors occur every season and every day.

I have just been lurking for years but all this arguing weather a storm is fish or a wish is ridiculous. Some people need to be scared into realizing that a storm might hit. Most floridians get lazy and believe since we have not been hit recently with a major storm for years that we are protected by this magic bubble.. No one prepares anymore.. Just like before Andrew hit and then it was to late.

Like most women Mother Nature does what she wants when wants and won't let anyone tell them different..
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340. 7544
Quoting WaterWitch11:


i saw that and was wondering the same question!


lloks like anna is getting jelous of bill is starting to show her true colors now at this hour big burst of convection and that ull like ive benn saying from last night keeps pulling her north
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Here is GFS for 21 Aug, as of the 0000 UTC maps:



And here it is as of the 1200 UTC maps:



I see that it moved further south in the 12z run than in the 0z run
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BTW good morning! I just wanted to say how nice it is to have only mature individuals posting this morning! And to keep it on topic - I think Ana will surprise us in the GOM!
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ANA Floater - AVN Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
The right side of the cone of uncertainty would put Ah-na back over the gulf stream. What's shear look like up that way?
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Quoting Drakoen:
I'm using the DAM (A excluded) model to track this system


lol!!! I hope to have my WXL Model operational by next Hurricane season... knock on wood. Hehe..
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4927
Quoting ZSAPHISON:
Morning all, stupid question time and hopes it hasn't been posted already.

How come no models or Mets (that I've heard) are discussing Ana as reforming in GOM, much like Claudette just did, seems from my eyes the situation would look to be almost the same senario.


Well just have to see how much of her is intact after island dodging, for these next few days. I feel that it has a good chance of regaining TS strength or cat 1 when hitting the gulf stream. But it all depends on how close it gets to land.
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Effects of Claudette still being seen here.
surfs up and some nasty storms
http://piercam.net/
http://wwc.instacam.com/instacamimg3/pnswf/08172009/081720091000_s.jpg
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Quoting WatchingThisOne:
"SHIPS brings Ana to 83 mph in 96 hours"

Can someone please refresh my memory as to which track model SHIPS intensity is based on? I seem to remember BAMD ... but often remember incorrectly :-)


i saw that and was wondering the same question!
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting MeterologistDewon9:
Also, can someone provide me the link to the ECWMF Model and the UKMET model please...Also the link to the steering forecast will be great, I lost my favorites..

ECMWF Link
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Quoting rxse7en:
Not another Fay! She was a bizarre one to track and she was a pretty nasty little storm here in Jax.

And not another Gustav! No thank you in advance!
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3481
Link for weather observations in San Juan throughout the day so far. Some decent wind gusts noted. Link
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326. jpsb
Quoting IKE:


Yes, it should help kicked it on north...
Ike check this out, my favorite resource. http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/satfloat.html
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1174
Quoting MeterologistDewon9:
Also, can someone provide me the link to the ECWMF Model and the UKMET model please...Also the link to the steering forecast will be great, I lost my favorites..


Those question can be easily asked in GOOGLE and you'll get a Boatload of them I bet
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting StadiumEffect:


Speed up this loop... Link and you can clearly see some sort of circulation. Also note the more prominent bands developing


I see what you're saying. Thanks for the link. Looks like the COC is almost halfway thru Puerto Rico right now. Maybe moving even a hair north of WNW.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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