Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on August 17, 2009

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Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.

The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).


Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.

Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.

It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.


Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.

Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.

Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.

A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting sopla2o:

Admin did some house cleaning apparently.



Either that or school started


That avatar is eye catching....
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423. jipmg
Quoting 7544:


thanks looks like she just drop 1 mb in pressure flags are now off

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1005.0mb/ 35.0kt

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


raw t up to 2.9


can you give us the positions of that 1005mb pressure reading?
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Jasoniscoolman, how many times are you gonna post the satellite picture of the wave next to FL?
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This time if year, one cannot write anything off. Until there is a descernable low center, we cannot get any kind of track. If the center emerges or relocates ANA can certainly strengthen fast. Remember she is small and it wont take much to get that little gal going. For FL, all eyes should be peeled for this one, especially if she decides to skirt the W coast. Even a depression or storm can bring great flooding issues for low lying and vulnerable areas.
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Quoting StadiumEffect:


Take a look at a radar loop and you can see the development of strong banding like features. Its hard to get an idea of a systems structure (such as Ana) when using certain satellite imagery as it simply shows you a mass of convection.

Thanks Stadium!
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Quoting canesrule1:
11:15AM EDT/15:15UTC FOR BILL:





i like the little spiral bands that look like they're forming in what will be the eye
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Bill's "eye" looks intense, but it looks like a bit chunk in NW side is missing. What's up with that? WV doesn't show it as particularly dry, though it is sucking in some dry air from the south.
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Admin did some house cleaning apparently.

Either that or school started
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Quoting 7544:


thanks looks like she just drop 1 mb in pressure flags are now off

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1005.0mb/ 35.0kt

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


raw t up to 2.9
its a TS?
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
If the Northern circulation of Ana is what turns out to be dominant, that would give her more time over water, and possibly allow her to not have to deal with the mountains of the DR. Correct?
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Drak,

I do...all good. sorry about my link

this shows the updated ana track along with central fl radar

Link
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Ana is giving me that Fay kind of feeling!
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Looks like Bill is taking a NW jog
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Quoting AllStar17:
I'll post Hurricane Hunter obs. when they begin flying in Ana. I'll just insert the HH overlays on Google Earth


thanks this will be useful I still ANA will take a FAY/GUSTAV path
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409. 7544
Quoting AllStar17:


A couple hours. I'll post obs. like I did above, but with all the HH observations overlayed


thanks looks like she just drop 1 mb in pressure flags are now off

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1005.0mb/ 35.0kt

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


raw t up to 2.9
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HH will be flying into Hurricane Bill tomorrow around 2pm.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
Quoting hurricanehanna:
is there still a COC with Ana? My eyes aren't picking it up on the wator vapor loop. She sure is firing off some nice storms right now though


Take a look at a radar loop and you can see the development of strong banding like features. Its hard to get an idea of a systems structure (such as Ana) when using certain satellite imagery as it simply shows you a mass of convection.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Where is the directory?


That would be under wunderblogs in the Header menu aussie,,..

Recently Updated Blogs

Browse by Member Handle: [ 0 - 9 ] [ A - D ] [ E - H ] [ I - L ] [ M - P ] [ Q - T ] [ U - Z ]
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Blog Name Latest Entry Comments Images Last Updated Last Comment
bionicdan Day by Day in NW Montana - Augu... 8 0 5 seconds ago|5 2 days ago
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WHEN WILL RECON GET TO ANNA?
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Quoting Grothar:
Very well answered. If I may, I do not understand why there are so many disruptive blogger on such a site. I would assume the majority of you are Americans. You are still the most admired people in the world; not only for your contributions in technology, medicine, etc. but you are admired for your innovative ideas of freedom of expression, ideas; something which is denied to most of the world. It is obvious some of you are young and display a tremendous amount of knowledge and contribute a great deal. I believe this forum should serve as an exchange of ideas as well as a mix of technical experts. Be proud you are afforded this opportunity which is denied to so many. The majority of you exchange ideas in such a civil manner. It is a shame others do not. You should be proud you have this opportunity which is denied to so many other. (I hope I do not sound like as troll)I have enjoyed learning so much from you. I hope you understand my English. Now back to the weather!!

I think some over estimate the knowledge of users who for example are tired of the TV coverage. Though these people have first off to learn how to use the internets.

Take it easy on the younglings :)
And as i can tell from the last days there been only a few short periods when people posted to much spam for example (F5) or when 1 question gets asked like 10 times in a row.

People should be more "cool" on spam post or "repeated same questions". And in any case the rateing on here seems to work ok for me.
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Quoting MeterologistDewon9:
A meteorologist from SC just told that most of the spaghetti models agree that it will continue moving NW for the next five days, and that it leaves it to our southeast. He doesn't even think it will recurve out to sea at all.


Where are you and which channel said that? I just want to know so I know what channel NOT to depend on in the future.
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400.

Link
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Quoting Drakoen:



Thank God!!! The day has finally come
Quoting Patrap:


Just go to the directory,scroll down to a given name,and click on the entry,..if you get the message,you'll know.

Where is the directory?
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Ana is giving me that Fay kind of feeling
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Quoting sfla82:


Nah...It will be nothing more than an afternoon thunderstorm with a light breeze! RIP Ana!


I was being sarcastic.
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Morning guys. Here in Rio Piedras, Puerto Rico we've had light rain all morning, some gusty winds (sporadically) and heavy thunderstorms. Nothing major. We'll see how the rest of the day goes.
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Ana is forecast to be a depression over Florida instead of a low.Uh oh.
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is there still a COC with Ana? My eyes aren't picking it up on the wator vapor loop. She sure is firing off some nice storms right now though
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394. jipmg
Quoting AllStar17:


That is crucial in terms of the strength of Ana, since it appears that that center could become the dominant center


it might happen.. looking better on radar.. who knows?
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RECON FLYING ANNA TIME?
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Quoting 7544:
anyone know what time the plane will be around ana if its going looking at her they must be


A couple hours. I'll post obs. like I did above, but with all the HH observations overlayed
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
Quoting southlouisiana:
Is Florida still suffering from drought in places?


To a very low degree, not nearly as bad as it was. I believe we are down for our rainy season which is not good for the up coming dry season.
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000
NOUS42 KNHC 171545
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT MON 17 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z AUGUST 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-081

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 18/1800Z,19/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0402A ANA
C. 18/1500Z
D. 21.5N 75.0W
E. 18/1700Z TO 19/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 19/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0502A ANA
C. 19/0200Z
D. 23.0N 78.0W
E. 19/0500Z TO 19/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES
0N ANA BEGINNING AT 19/1500Z. A FIX AT 19/1800Z
AND 20/0600Z ON HURRICANE BILL.

3. REMARKS: NOAA WILL BEGIN FLYING 5 RESEARCH MISSIONS
IN A ROW ON HURRICANE BILL AT 18/0800Z WITH THE P-3
AND G-IV. TAKEOFFS WILL BE EVERY 12 HOURS.


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP/SEF


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10466
seems quiet in here today nice
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Quoting jipmg:
The mid level low, or the northern LOW for ANA is moving swiftly towards the WNW, might emerge of puerto rico soon.. and might actually miss the DR


That is crucial in terms of the strength of Ana, since it appears that that center could become the dominant center
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
If the Northern circulation of Ana is what turns out to be dominant, that would give her more time over water, and possibly allow her to not have to deal with the mountains of the DR. Correct?
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Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
In using the procrastinator model (Decided to hold off cutting the new plywood this weekend in light of track changes) everyone in WPB should be concerned about ANA.


Nah...It will be nothing more than an afternoon thunderstorm with a light breeze! RIP Ana!
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UKMET thinks Bill will be less affected by the first trough...but even it seems to think Bill would be picked up by the second one. The UKMET track is still north and east of the Bahamas...
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384. 7544
anyone know what time the plane will be around ana if its going looking at her they must be
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383. jipmg
The mid level low, or the northern LOW for ANA is moving swiftly towards the WNW, might emerge of puerto rico soon.. and might actually miss the DR
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Just do better than CLP5 and you will be judged "skillful".


Lol... I can do better than CLP5.
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Quoting southbeachdude:
I agree with the model consensus. I do wonder what the UKMET is picking up that the other models are not. Is it simply the strength of the low pressure?
This is bothering me too. It implies the possibility is out there...... which I do not like. That UKMET track implies a NW Bahamas strike.
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I'll post Hurricane Hunter obs. when they begin flying in Ana. I'll just insert the HH overlays on Google Earth

Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
In using the procrastinator model (Decided to hold off cutting the new plywood this weekend in light of track changes) everyone in WPB should be concerned about ANA.
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Quoting guxtrop:
2027. Welling2000 5:00 AM GMT on August 17, 2009

Quoting WeatherStudent:

Adult bloggers on here, a moment of miraculous rejoice, please. All South Florida children return back to school officially one week from today. Therefore, as a result of this futuristic outcome, all of the childish predicaments that are presently taking place on this blog, should hopefully all be but non-existent for the most part by then. I don't know about y'all, but I'll be anxiously looking forward to that day. My countdown clock clicker has already begun to click on away in anticipation to that exciting day arriving. But, unfortunately speaking, ladies and gentlemen, until then we'll just gonna have to grim and bare it and put up with it to the best of our capacities. Moreover, good morning everyone. How's our tropical trio during this morning? :)


Young man, you are not the solution. Truth is, you are part of the problem. Think about it, please. You see, trying to talk or write like an adult is presumptuous, when you don't behave like one. And I'm not suggesting you grow up; only that you write, and behave in an appropriate manner for a public blog where adults are present, and your personal reputation is at stake. Best wishes.



Very well answered. If I may, I do not understand why there are so many disruptive blogger on such a site. I would assume the majority of you are Americans. You are still the most admired people in the world; not only for your contributions in technology, medicine, etc. but you are admired for your innovative ideas of freedom of expression, ideas; something which is denied to most of the world. It is obvious some of you are young and display a tremendous amount of knowledge and contribute a great deal. I believe this forum should serve as an exchange of ideas as well as a mix of technical experts. Be proud you are afforded this opportunity which is denied to so many. The majority of you exchange ideas in such a civil manner. It is a shame others do not. You should be proud you have this opportunity which is denied to so many other. (I hope I do not sound like as troll)I have enjoyed learning so much from you. I hope you understand my English. Now back to the weather!!
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Quoting largeeyes:
The historical map is very interesting. Cat 1 and 2 hurricanes within 200 miles of where Bill is shows a majority end up as fish/bermuda storms.


The combination of favorable climatology, along with the model support, makes me believe Bill really is staying east of the U.S. Still a long way to go, though.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.