Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on August 17, 2009

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Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.

The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).


Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.

Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.

It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.


Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.

Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.

Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.

A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting willdunc79:
Yamil20 what is Mayfield saying about Bill & Ana?


he mention that ana is going to struggle to survive due to land interaction, but if it skips the land, then it could strenghten
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Yeah i did that.
Sorted By Member Handle
AuroraB
AussieGa
aussiegreg
Aussiemick
AustinBob

I'm not there


That would be because you have never created a blog. If you create one, then your handle will show up.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

So i am here but really not here... lol.... i am a ghost commenter


Beats being a Monomania crazed Gangsta with social issues..anyday.
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Ana is a huge "if" based on the current models and Dr. M (the Hispanola breakup scenario)but sometimes, these storms have a sneaky way of taking the past of least resistence or reforming their COC over the water to the north of the Greater Antilles....Just have to wait and see what happeneds but the serious threat of flooding rains/mudslides for PR and Hispanola nothing to laugh at or disreguard; that is the immediate threat and the Bahamas/US will have to wait.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Yeah i did that.
Sorted By Member Handle
AuroraB
AussieGa
aussiegreg
Aussiemick
AustinBob

I'm not there


You've been banned! J/k
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Quoting Patrap:


Well then I guess your not here Aussie..

Actually,the wu-server has issues with International IP's think..cant be certain but that may be the case. I noticed you were absent too

So i am here but really not here... lol.... i am a ghost commenter
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Thanks wxlogic
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I was about to ask why u would NEED to be "kinder " or "gentler"...... LOL

ON a more serious note, I'm not too keen on anything coming across the Srn or Central Bahamas, even a Twave. The water here is shallow for the most part, but it's also hot enough to give a boost to any system that's moving fast enough and just needs a bit of warm water for a little while to "develop its potential", so to speak.

Also, why is no one considering that Ana might get caught in the lower edge of that trough? Is it not going to dip low enough???


You're absolutely right lol. I'm not entitled to anything or anyone. Being an A-list blogger is a lot of work LMFAO!!!
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466. 7544
idk peeeps raw t goes up again

from 2.9 to 3.2 now 3.9

if we see another pres drop oin mb things could get ineresting here before the plane gets in

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.6 3.0 3.9

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


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Quoting willdunc79:
Yamil20 what is Mayfield saying about Bill & Ana?


He said Ana probably wont make it and Bill is out to sea....Bad news for Bermuda! Florida is in the clear.
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Quoting willdunc79:
What time EST will the H. Hunters fly out to Ana?


Go to the NHC site,..look on the Left Menu,note Hurricane Hunters,the POD is there.
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Quoting willdunc79:
What time EST will the H. Hunters fly out to Ana?


~2PM
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Yeah i did that.
Sorted By Member Handle
AuroraB
AussieGa
aussiegreg
Aussiemick
AustinBob

I'm not there


Well then I guess your not here Aussie..

Actually,the wu-server has issues with International IP's think..cant be certain but that may be the case. I noticed you were absent too
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Quoting winter123:
Bill has a pinhole, not fully opened eye, surrounded by an eye like 100 miles across. Reminds me of Wilma :/


Are there chances it will become a http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annular_hurricane
?
Comparing the current satelite images with the once from the wiki - optical similarities are there at least.
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What time EST will the H. Hunters fly out to Ana?
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Is it just me or does Ana look to be forming a new COC north of PR ?? If so that throws out all models for a few cycles until she gets reformed, if she does, doesn't it ?? . If she does reform north of PR wouldn't that put the Bahamas and possibly Fl in her path ???
Member Since: July 17, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 408
Claudette is also interesting in that while the COC made landfall overnight, most of her convection is still "perculating" over the Northern Gulf.
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456. 7544
Quoting Funkadelic:
Looks as if the HH may find Ana to be a tropical storm when they fly today


agree if she can get a just alittle further north it could get in the warmer waters by the bahammas then things will change she looks to be 50/50 there imo
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Quoting Patrap:


Use the Lettered Directory above it Aussie,the Main Directory is for active blog.


Id Look under "A" for Aussie as a start.



Browse by Member Handle: [ 0 - 9 ] [ A - D ]


Yeah i did that.
Sorted By Member Handle
AuroraB
AussieGa
aussiegreg
Aussiemick
AustinBob

I'm not there
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Wow if Ana can survive until it gets to the Florida straights, it could intensify into a Cat 1 storm as she moves up the west coast of FL
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Quoting Drakoen:


I just do me. It's either you like it or you don't.
I was about to ask why u would NEED to be "kinder " or "gentler"...... LOL

ON a more serious note, I'm not too keen on anything coming across the Srn or Central Bahamas, even a Twave. The water here is shallow for the most part, but it's also hot enough to give a boost to any system that's moving fast enough and just needs a bit of warm water for a little while to "develop its potential", so to speak.

Also, why is no one considering that Ana might get caught in the lower edge of that trough? Is it not going to dip low enough???
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Yamil20 what is Mayfield saying about Bill & Ana?
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Quoting AllStar17:
On this map, the L symbolizes where the NHC put the center at 11 am



The center is definitely to the north of that location, and has reformed. Probably around central to western Puerto Rico at the moment and about to move off the coast towards the DR. If it is going to survive, it really needs to jog NW for a bit.
Member Since: July 6, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 579
Quoting foggymyst:
Off to see the local, south fla noon news. Wonder if they will brush off Ana...


Yep...I just wactched the local news here in Ft. Lauderdale/Miami and no to much concern from any of them on Ana. It sucks because we could have used the rain. Our rainsy season has been dead this year too!
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Bill has a pinhole, not fully opened eye, surrounded by an eye like 100 miles across. Reminds me of Wilma :/

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Quoting afj3:
Thanks HurricaneGeek!

Do you have a link to those models? The link I have doesn't have ships.


You're welcome. Here is your link. LINK
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i think ana might be a tropicasl storm fay type situation will probably slowly get cranked up if she is downgraded into a tropical wave we need to watch it closely when it starts to enter the bahamas
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Someone asked if FL was still in a drought. Here is South FL we are still under performing for the year....and we were already low going into the year...so I guss the answer is mostly...yes we are still in a small drought.
Here is the link showing how far off we are

Link
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I did that... i couldn't find my handle.... y would that be?
Jobos Beach, Isabela, Puerto Rico


Use the Lettered Directory above it Aussie,the Main Directory is for active blog.


Id Look under "A" for Aussie as a start.



Browse by Member Handle: [ 0 - 9 ] [ A - D ]
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The satelite data from here EUMETSAT shows the northward trend from the last days (comparing recent images with latest). Still though to see the recurve in time will be intresting to watch.

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Raw T# in the post above shows it has gone up from 2.9 to 3.2. Bill looks to be struggling with the inner core, like Ike did his whole journey across the Gulf of Mexico.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3606
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Sorry I don't have the UKMET, but I have this steering forecast Link. Just click to animate. It also does the shear & precipitation forecast.

Everything he is asking for, and more, is at
http://www.stormjunkie.com/pages/trophome/trophome.php
http://www.adriansweather.com/tropicalweatherlinks.htm
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/atmoaggie/show (My blog...if you found this place, you can find that place...favorites lost or not.)
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ (likewise)
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turn local 10 in south florida max mayfield is talking
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439. afj3
Thanks HurricaneGeek!

Do you have a link to those models? The link I have doesn't have ships.
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Does anyone have a graphic with the upper-level trough's current location? Thanks!
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The stronger Bill gets in the short-term, the more he will turn to the NW so pick-up by one of the trofs seems certain at this point; good news for the US but bad news for Bermuda. In terms of Ana, we have seen some land-disrupted remnants survive Hispanola in past years, so I would not write her off completely until it actually happens.
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Quoting afj3:
Question for all those out there:
If Ana dissipates, what are the chances of it reforming as it gets back over open water and approaches Florida? Didn't Katrina form after from the remnants of a previous depression?


I'm guessing pretty high because the SHIP model shows an 83 mph hurricane from Ana in 96 hrs. (4 days).
The environment in the area of the Bahamas and Florida Straits are very conductive to development.
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Quoting Patrap:


That would be under wunderblogs in the Header menu aussie,,..

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I did that... i couldn't find my handle.... y would that be?
Jobos Beach, Isabela, Puerto Rico
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434. 7544
jst in another pressue drop of 1 mb for anna

raw t not going up

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1004.0mb/ 37.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.6 2.9 3.2

flags off what you all think thats 2mb drop in 1 hour

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Hey hurricanejunky

How are you?

Plans?
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3616
432. afj3
Question for all those out there:
If Ana dissipates, what are the chances of it reforming as it gets back over open water and approaches Florida? Didn't Katrina form after from the remnants of a previous depression?
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431. 7544
you can see it here ill let the pros here decide but this is what im comming up with

Link
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As far as Bill goes. Looks like the NHC has called right again. The only thing that worries me is that the dry air to the N slows development and he stays weak enough to not feel the influence of the trough and somehow slips past it and keeps on the WNW. Nut the second trough looks strong enough to sweep him away. East coast will have some good wave action though.
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On this map, the L symbolizes where the NHC put the center at 11 am

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Off to see the local, south fla noon news. Wonder if they will brush off Ana...
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426. 7544
Quoting canesrule1:
its a TS?


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.5 2.9 2.9
those are the numbers if she can hold those she just might surprise everyone dont forget the blob in front of just came into play idk maybe that could change things today . fro anna
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Quoting 7544:


thanks looks like she just drop 1 mb in pressure flags are now off

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1005.0mb/ 35.0kt

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


raw t up to 2.9

if this is ANA I am going to ...... where is it curent location of ANA I think ANA will be like FAY/GUSTAV with the path like fay with a bit of GUSTAV and it will be as strong as FAY
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Quoting sopla2o:

Admin did some house cleaning apparently.



Either that or school started


That avatar is eye catching....
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.