Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on August 17, 2009

Share this Blog
6
+

Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.

The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).


Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.

Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.

It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.


Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.

Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.

Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.

A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 824 - 774

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90Blog Index

Quoting Drakoen:
The overall model guidance has shifted to the left with bill.


Maybe they're taking into account that the trough that is suppose to move Bill out to sea is stationary over Oklahoma for the past day or so. I might be looking at the wrong thing though, jus the WU map.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
822. jpsb
Quoting Buhdog:
jpsb....

sorry, I love the sfwmd site...they are right on point and have an incredible history with us south floridians....the emergency management team down here is awesome and they are always on point.

Link

ana rainbow
lol, you are forgiven, it is a great site. The best IMHO.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1174
Quoting IKE:
12Z NOGAPS takes Ah-nah to near Mobile and Bill to the east of the east coast....
wow, definitely westward shift, u can expect the 5PM advisory cone to have shifted westward.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
The overall model guidance has shifted to the left with bill.


Thats what I was trying to get at yesterday Drak...wasnt trying to do anything else. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cchsweatherman:


...SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.6N 67.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB


I think it is slight west than that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bill pass near Buoy 41041 records 8.5 meters wave height with a pressure which fell 17 mb in 6 hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
12Z NOGAPS takes Ah-nah to near Mobile and Bill to the east of the east coast....


Wow that has Bill to close to my neck of the woods
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
They are off:

Map (I'll post more soon):
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
I thought it was at Keesler where it broke Patrap. I knew it had to be at one of the 2. GPT airport at that time was too small...


The Keesler anaenometer Failed at 202mph and is the offical Highest recording of a Atlantic Hurricane Landfall Wind Speed.
Wilma has the record for Lowest Pressure I believe.


Impact counts as thats the Bottom Line..always
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
812. srada
Quoting canesrule1:
LOL, imagine this blog.


Cat5, there is no way if this hit the US, that there could be any type of news coverage from inside of it all..who in their right mind would chase or ride out a CAT 5? I doubt you be able to get a news feed..Lets hope this storm does TURN!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


...SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.6N 67.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The overall model guidance has shifted to the left with bill.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:
Which reminds me, what was the hurricane that had the strongest winds ever recorded.

Wilma back in 2005.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
The reading RAMSDIS is showing for that buoy is incorrect or not up to date. That buoy is reporting a pressure around 978mb

why would that be incorrect?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Guys as I said before I think ANA will develop back into a TS and have a track like FAY or GUSTAV and I am watching this one close
and Grothar and 456 I think you guys are right but I do not think it will be to the north of Hispaniola I think it will be on the southern coast
Could there be any more different tracks? Faye hit FL and Gustav hit LA.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
804. jpsb
Quoting JadeInAntigua:


I have to admit, I'm kind of on pins and needles today waiting to see just how close he'll get before the recurve. At his current speed, what time do you guys think we may be able to see if his direction is being heavily influenced by the weakness at 50W? I know there aren't any absolutes on this stuff... just looking for opinions.
You can see here http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/satfloat.html that Bill is just now begining to feel (interact) with the trof. Notice the north outter bands being pulled away. Also notice that for the last few hours Bill has been on the forecast tract. Now the $64k question is: Is this trof strong enough to really pick Bill up? Or will bill break free and continue wnw?
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1174
Quoting Weather456:


the highest off of my memory is Camille (190mph), Mitch comes to mind to


I agree I think Camille then Mitch.... I will have to look up Andrew and see what they were but Camille is the 1....

Taco :0)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
RE: Amount of intensification of Bill as he moves NW - How much will the SAL effect?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
if you look at long range radar out of San Juan it looks like some rotation just NE of the Dominican Republic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
The reading RAMSDIS is showing for that buoy is incorrect or not up to date. That buoy is reporting a pressure around 978mb
wow, so it's one millibar more than the 11AM advisory.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Bill 12Z GFDL final position, a little more left.


HOUR:126.0 LONG: -68.86 LAT: 30.99 MIN PRESS (hPa): 945.34 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):108.79


Interesting... seems there're some subtle changes models are hinting towards.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting futuremet:


If it is the SE PR one then....we have to watch Ana-Banana (couldn't resist) more closely. It has a higher chance of emerging into the Bahamas.


That is what I was thinking ..... HH's should be interesting. I am also noting some models shifting west. Bill's track is not a sure thing
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


They don't tend to flare up consitantly around a median area though


very true....but whatever she may be...a td, a open wave...whatever...shes still a disturbance which causes instability... add that to land interaction and you have enhanced convection ...

so a weak wave that encounters land will always look more impressive than it is due to this land interaction...

the opposite is for an established tropical entity...mountains and land interaction cause disruption of the core of the system ...

bottom line...even if shes a wave...is shes still got structure when pulling away from the islands, she could regenerate into a storm again...its just a wait and see game...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Vortex95:
HRWF taking it up to 190mph god. I doubt it can reach that, not in the atlantic.

Really?!Link?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bill is bouncing back & forth between W/just north of due west and an occasional wnw wobble, I'm telling ya, the north leewards & Caribbean should not turn their back on this dangerous dude, as for Ana, I really can't pinpoint a closed low but looks to be trucking more westward with 2 possible coc s,jmo & a potential regain TS status.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:
Which reminds me, what was the hurricane that had the strongest winds ever recorded.
Hurricane Wilma, which has swelled into a dangerous Category Five storm, is the strongest hurricane ever recorded, the US National Hurricane Center says.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Funny you mention that as Camille 40 years ago tonight Impacted as a Cat 5 with a Recoded Wind Speed at the Seabee Base in Long Beach,Miss of 212mph when the anemometer Broke.
I thought it was at Keesler where it broke Patrap. I knew it had to be at one of the 2. GPT airport at that time was too small...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


the highest off of my memory is Camille (190mph), Mitch comes to mind to


You are correct as usual. However, they believe that at some point the sustained winds were in excess of 205. There were not official. P.S. Did you read my recent blog about the information which I received. I would like your opinion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:


Yup...but do you think the SE of PR one.....where will it go, in your opinion?


If it is the SE PR one then....we have to watch Ana-Banana (couldn't resist) more closely. It has a higher chance of emerging into the Bahamas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bill's convection is really blowing up now! And don't forget what Gustav did last year in regards to Ana -- hit Hispaniola and just relocated the COC to the strongest nearby convection and warmest SSTs. Of course, hard to not agree that the islands and terrain won't tear her up, but still worth watching. She's certainly been resilient thus far.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


According to the ADT estimates.
ok, thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The reading RAMSDIS is showing for that buoy is incorrect or not up to date. That buoy is reporting a pressure around 978mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:
Which reminds me, what was the hurricane that had the strongest winds ever recorded.


Labor Day in the Keys I believe. Very little info about it though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:

looks like the one se of pr is more defined than the one between dr and pr


Perhaps...latest surface observations are showing sharp shift in wind directions. I'll wait for another hour to confirm this, however.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting futuremet:


I don't really know how defined the second one is since it is beneath the convection. The first vortex will move inland soon, and may weaken, causing the other to take over.



Yup...but do you think the SE of PR one.....where will it go, in your opinion?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting canesrule1:
It's a 45MPH TS.


According to the ADT estimates.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
guys do you know where the COC of ANA is I think it is at 17.5N 67.5W movement north of dew west
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Agree w/ the pple here who see Ana as potential threat regardless of whether it is currently open wave or not. Currently Ana is in an area where storms habitually either strengthen or restrengthen. Especially given forecast tracks that take the system just to the north or south of the Greather Antilles, I would not be in a hurry to dismiss this as a "past" event. NHC has been reluctant to downgrade because the potential is so obvious, and even if it is downgraded at 5 p.m. They well definitely not stop following it as an AOI.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Where can I find an updated TCHP map? The one on the NOAA site is still saying May 19, 2009?

Thanks in advance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


Possible based on the sfc obs


I don't really know how defined the second one is since it is beneath the convection. The first vortex will move inland soon, and may weaken, causing the other to take over.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bill 12Z HWRF final position, also a little more left, and not a Cat 6


HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -70.40 LAT: 30.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 904.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 133.00
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:


Its obviously somewhat inflated but you could take it at face value as showing a low end cat 5.


Funny you mention that as Camille 40 years ago tonight Impacted as a Cat 5 with a Recorded Wind Speed at the Seabee Base in Long Beach,Miss of 212mph when the anemometer Broke.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 824 - 774

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.