Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on August 17, 2009

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Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.

The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).


Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.

Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.

It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.


Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.

Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.

Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.

A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CaneWarning:


How much of a shift?


A few hundred miles
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Quoting Engine2:


Wow that has Bill to close to my neck of the woods


The NOGAPS was keeping Bill between Bermuda and the east coast. This isn't a big change.
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ANA

Short Wave Image

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Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


*looks at Raw T*

We may see Hurricane Ana

*eek*


What is raw T????
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Quoting TNTF1:
Quoting srada

who in their right mind would chase or ride out a CAT 5?

============

We would. We would be staged as close as humanly possible to be able to move in for SAR immediately.

I, however, believe Bill will turn and not be a threat to the US.
i have ridden out CAT 5's before.
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That ADT is insane...I don't know what Ana is but she certainly isn't a hurricane.
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Quoting Patrap:


Hey Patrap,

I think we will be getting wet soon....LOL

Taco :0)
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Quoting Patrap:


no lol don't even think about
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000
WTNT32 KNHC 171731
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
200 PM AST MON AUG 17 2009

...POORLY ORGANIZED ANA MOVING SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST OR
ABOUT 105 MILES...165 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND
ABOUT 165 MILES...265 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 28 MPH...45 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED TRACK IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION...WITH A REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...ANA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER
TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN
THE AREA SHORTLY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

ANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER
PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.6N 67.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/CANGIALOSI

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Quoting 7544:
raw ts up again this hour
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.0mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.8 3.1 4.0

we may see ts ana born again


*looks at Raw T*

We may see Hurricane Ana

*eek*
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Quoting 7544:
raw ts up again this hour
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.0mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.8 3.1 4.0

we may see ts ana born again

we just might ts ana again
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
817. jasoniscoolman10
: )
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Quoting scottsvb:


where you get that data....NHC doesnt have that... post a link!

Link
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858. TNTF1
Quoting srada

who in their right mind would chase or ride out a CAT 5?

============

We would. We would be staged as close as humanly possible to be able to move in for SAR immediately.

I, however, believe Bill will turn and not be a threat to the US.
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Quoting Vortex95:
HRWF taking it up to 190mph god. I doubt it can reach that, not in the atlantic.


As long as its a fish spinner I say bring it on :D

But only if it doesnt hit anything...
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I'm expecting Tropical Storm watches to be posted for southern Florida tomorrow.
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855. Skyepony (Mod)
Flights ~ AF300 just took off. Looks like fixes every 6 hrs on Ana. Keeping a tight eye there. So again around 8est, then 2am & 8am tomorrow as well. Continue 6 hour fixes til midday Wed the 19th then start 3 hr fixes. 5 research flights are scheduled for Bill. One taking off every 12 hrs beginning 2am est wed the 18th (P-3 & G-IV). Center fixes begin ~2pm est Wed the 19th on Bill, with another scheduled 12hrs later.

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854. 7544
raw ts up again this hour
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.0mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.8 3.1 4.0

we may see ts ana born again
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
Quoting 7544:


looks like they waiting for the planes info

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.0mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.8 3.0 3.7


and with these nubers still holding we mught get a speacial update after they see waht the plane finds imo

thats what said we are waiting for hh's to find out what ana has
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
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Quoting Kexnicious:
Closest Buoy Report to Bill that I have found.

Station 41041
NDBC
Location: 14.357N 46.008W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 17 Aug 2009 16:50:00 UTC
Winds: N (360°) at 40.8 kt gusting to 54.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 27.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 14 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 28.90 in and falling rapidly
Air Temperature: 78.3 F
Water Temperature: 80.8 F


Here is the link to the site, to keep updated with it. (Bill is forecast to pass within 50nm of it)

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5890
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Can't seem to find my link for the Tropical Atlantic Recon Decoder site. Could you provide me the link for the site? Thanks.
Link
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Quoting StormFreakyisher:

Also the biggest hurricane in the Atlantic basin.


It did not have the strongest winds, just the lowest barometric pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin at 882 mlb. Let us all hope we do not see one of those again!
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


Can't seem to find my link for the Tropical Atlantic Recon Decoder site. Could you provide me the link for the site? Thanks.


http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

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If Ana hits South Florida as a TD/TS, what are the practical effects? (Traveling to Miami for business this week) - Business as usual or closures/delays? Thanks.
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Bill looks like he just took some steroids. Wow he is looking mighty once again. THat dry air is almost nonexistent and he's still heading WNW. There was three troughs that could take him northward. One is already affecting him but is quickly moving northeastward which is to his north right now and the reason he is moving WNW and not W. The second is over SE CONUS right now in the form of an upper level low. This low is forecasted by the models to move east and southeast and eventually turn Bill Northwestward in 48 hours and then give some shear to the hurricane and maybe flatten out his intensification. The third will be the strongest and most amplified trough and depending on its strength, position and tilt will determine where Bill will end up. Either he will hit Bermuda or affect Bermuda, take a track like hurricane Irene of 2005 or Hit the East Coast of the US.
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Quoting StormFreakyisher:

Also the biggest hurricane in the Atlantic basin.


not the biggest... it had the lowest pressure...
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Quoting 7544:


looks like they waiting for the planes info

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.0mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.8 3.0 3.7


and with these nubers still holding we mught get a speacial update after they see waht the plane finds imo


According to the raw T - Ana is nearly a hurricane lol.
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recon flying now
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842. jpsb
Quoting Weather456:


the highest off of my memory is Camille (190mph), Mitch comes to mind to


Allen is the second of only two hurricanes in the recorded history of the Atlantic basin to achieve sustained winds of 190 mph (310 km/h), after Hurricane Camille in 1969.
Member Since: June 30, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1249
Quoting canesrule1:
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 17:29Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Ana (flight originating in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 02

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Monday, 17:24Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 17.6N 65.6W
Location: 64 miles (103 km) to the SSE (152°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: Light
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 450 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 130° at 21 knots (From the SE at ~ 24.1 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 23°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 12°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Broken clouds (5/8 to 7/8 cloud coverage)
925 mb Surface Altitude: 783 geopotential meters

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 120° at 30 knots (From the ESE at ~ 34.5 mph)


Can't seem to find my link for the Tropical Atlantic Recon Decoder site. Could you provide me the link for the site? Thanks.
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Quoting Drakoen:
The overall model guidance has shifted to the left with bill.


How much of a shift?
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839. IKE
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Guys as I said before I think ANA will develop back into a TS and have a track like FAY or GUSTAV and I am watching this one close
and Grothar and 456 I think you guys are right but I do not think it will be to the north of Hispaniola I think it will be on the southern coast
Could there be any more different tracks? Faye hit FL and Gustav hit LA.

Now on that note, I think you need to look at the track that Fredrick(79) took and it too was down graded to a depession at the same point as "Ana"....
so I want write off Ana just yet anyway....

Taco :0)
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837. 7544
Quoting btwntx08:
ana still a td at 2 pm still moving wnw at 28 mph but let see what the hh's find in ana


looks like they waiting for the planes info

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.8 /1002.0mb/ 41.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.8 3.0 3.7


and with these nubers still holding we mught get a speacial update after they see waht the plane finds imo
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
Quoting StormFreakyisher:

Also the biggest hurricane in the Atlantic basin.


Ike took that record I believe for the Atlantic.
Marco took the record for the smallest tropical cyclone ever recorded though.
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Quoting HurricaneKyle:


Maybe they're taking into account that the trough that is suppose to move Bill out to sea is stationary over Oklahoma for the past day or so. I might be looking at the wrong thing though, jus the WU map.


We had a good gust front through Oklahoma just a bit ago with storms moving along the DL...the front is on the move now
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Closest Buoy Report to Bill that I have found.

Station 41041
NDBC
Location: 14.357N 46.008W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 17 Aug 2009 16:50:00 UTC
Winds: N (360°) at 40.8 kt gusting to 54.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 27.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 14 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 28.90 in and falling rapidly
Air Temperature: 78.3 F
Water Temperature: 80.8 F
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Really good visual. Thanks for the link!
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Quoting Patrap:


The Keesler anaenometer Failed at 202mph and is the offical Highest recording of a Atlantic Hurricane Landfall Wind Speed.
Wilma has the record for Lowest Pressure I believe.


Impact counts as thats the Bottom Line..always
Thanks for the knowledge. See, learn something new every day.
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Quoting StormFreakyisher:

Wilma back in 2005.


That is really bizarre if you think about it. There have been VERY few "W" storms (2005 was quite amazing in and of itself for going well into the Greek alphabet), and just that one time, it happened to be the strongest hurricane on record. WOW!
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it will be very interesting to see what laititude BILL is when it gets to 50w.
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Quoting jpsb:
You can see here http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/satfloat.html that Bill is just now begining to feel (interact) with the trof. Notice the north outter bands being pulled away. Also notice that for the last few hours Bill has been on the forecast tract. Now the $64k question is: Is this trof strong enough to really pick Bill up? Or will bill break free and continue wnw?


Ty for the link.. yeah I see him shifting to the north a bit.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Hurricane Wilma, which has swelled into a dangerous Category Five storm, is the strongest hurricane ever recorded, the US National Hurricane Center says.

Also the biggest hurricane in the Atlantic basin.
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Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 17:29Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Ana (flight originating in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 02

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Monday, 17:24Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 17.6N 65.6W
Location: 64 miles (103 km) to the SSE (152°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: Light
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 450 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 130° at 21 knots (From the SE at ~ 24.1 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 23°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 12°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Broken clouds (5/8 to 7/8 cloud coverage)
925 mb Surface Altitude: 783 geopotential meters

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 120° at 30 knots (From the ESE at ~ 34.5 mph)
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Quoting jasoniscoolman10:


What is the point of that?
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Quoting Drakoen:
The overall model guidance has shifted to the left with bill.
hmmm
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ana still a td at 2 pm still moving wnw at 28 mph but let see what the hh's find in ana
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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