Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on August 17, 2009

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Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.

The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).


Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.

Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.

It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.


Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.

Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.

Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.

A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Judging by the recon, Ana's an Open Tropical wave. I half expect advisory to end at 5 PM with the note of regeneration possible.

Once the remains get in the gulf of Mexico and especially after watching how fast Claudette span up, we'll have to watch it.
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:

I'm a "d" lister like Kathy Griffin.. lol

Looks exactly where they have it
oh ok
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You don't have to always ask for a link when someone post an image. You can drag the image to a new page, and manually decode the link...
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1021. 7544
Quoting NARCHER:
recon has not found a west wind in the area of advisory position. open wave as of now.
w

ive benn follwing the adt site why now it has it at 45k im confused
Link
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6812
Quoting Patrap:
ANA NHC Tracks archived,animated to current


That should keep the Interest of some...


Hey that's cool. Do they have that for Bill too?
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Hmmmmmm. The 12Z models have my attention.

Drak---NC should keep their eyes peeled, but no worry yet?
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1017. Drakoen
Quoting Grothar:
Hey Drak, would you mind sharing the link to this. Could not find it. Good posting today.


Link
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I know some Westcasters that will make me crow, since I permanently sentenced Bill out to sea last night.
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Quoting Drakoen:



I'm an A-list celebrity here lol! Wunderground paparazzi following me everywhere

I'm a "d" lister like Kathy Griffin.. lol
Quoting canesrule1:
i think so


Looks exactly where they have it
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1014. NARCHER
recon has not found a west wind in the area of advisory position. open wave as of now.
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1013. srada
Quoting sopla2o:


When you are in the "BOX".. Hurricane Watch or Warning... Your out of luck...


Thanks
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1011. NEwxguy
Quoting atmoaggie:

Our Bermuda high too far south to make that repeat...was further north that year.


Thanks I was trying to look that up,was wondering about the high position that year,thanks.
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Who other than me thinks SFLA will be under a Tropical Storm watch tomorrow?
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Quoting BrockBerlin:


l, also westcasters (generally people in the GOM) Floridacasters, and the occasional Carolinacaster/ NEcaster.


Don't forget midcasters. Us on the mid-atlantic Eastern Seaboard. Virginia/NC. Ha ;-).
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Quoting Patrap:
ANA NHC Tracks archived,animated to current


That looks like a snake stalking its prey through the Atlantic into the Caribbean feeding zone.
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1007. Skyepony (Mod)
Short flight there from the islands. So far 1011mb lowest, near 35mph winds on the surface, a little less at flight level ~1000ft. No west winds yet. I don't see any on the surface obs on nowCoast either.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 37847
1006. 7544
Quoting scottsvb:



um unless your posting a link to this...stop posting fake messages! Ana is very doubtfull 1000mb


whattttttt check it out

Link
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6812
1005. Grothar
Quoting Drakoen:
Everyone keeps posting old model plots. Here is the HWRF 12Z:




gfdl 12Z
Hey Drak, would you mind sharing the link to this. Could not find it. Good posting today.
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1004. sopla2o
Quoting srada:
Question in regards to insurance? If you wanted to up your coverage on your property, whats the latest will the insurance company let you do that as far as promixity of the storm to land?


When you are in the "BOX".. Hurricane Watch or Warning... Your out of luck...
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Was wondering why the intensity forecasts can show growth in Ana when NHC doesn't...
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2009/clarki2latest.png
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Quoting 7544:
just in on adt

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.0mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.0 3.1 3.9


Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF





um unless your posting a link to this...stop posting fake messages! Ana is very doubtfull 1000mb
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Quoting futuremet:
WU blog jargon is quite interesting.

Wishcashter, downcaster, doomcasters, and now fishcasters lol

You left me out.
I am a anti-capslock-caster
Someone wants to shout, they should learn how.
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Quoting futuremet:
WU blog jargon is quite interesting.

Wishcashter, downcaster, doomcasters, and now fishcasters lol


Scandalous!!!!!!
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Seems that Ana will pose a minimal threat to Florida, is this correct?
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Ana is headed NW my humble opinion is that her intensity is likely if she manages to hug the northely coast of hispanola. If she enters inland deep into the mountains, most likely she will not survive; however if for any unknown reasons she exits to the north of hispanola sooner than expected, there is a high chance that she will give us a run for our money
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I think the ULL flare-up and Ana are going to interact and become 1:
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994. srada
Question in regards to insurance? If you wanted to up your coverage on your property, whats the latest will the insurance company let you do that as far as promixity of the storm to land?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ANA NHC Tracks archived,animated to current


That should keep the Interest of some...
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Quoting BahaHurican:
No biggie.... even he is poking fun at himself. Don't be so serious abt everything....

lol


It just puzzled me thats all lol
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Quoting NEwxguy:
The tracks you guys keep posting,eerily look like the New England Hurricane of 1938

Our Bermuda high too far south to make that repeat...was further north that year.
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WU blog jargon is quite interesting.

Wishcashter, downcaster, doomcasters, and now fishcasters lol
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COULD THERE BE A NEW CENTER NEAR THE RECENT BLOW-UP OF CONVECTION IN THE NORTH COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC?
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988. 7544
just in on adt

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.0mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.0 3.1 3.9


Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6812
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


I think it might graze Canada.. So, I'm more a Canacaster ;)
oh ok, LMAO
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Quoting weathersp:


I got 7.2 ft of surge from that storm, and I'm on a river off of the chesapeake bay.. and 13 miles inland!


I got it bad in Isabel too, I had the NE eyewall right over my house during that event. Wasn't any fun at all. I was getting sustained up to 90-95, but with gusts at 115-120.
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Quoting nishinigami:
how do you view the hurricane hunter observation in google earth. I have ge, just do not know how to get the observation information.

thanks :)
Open "View Side Bar from the "View" menu options...Below the "NHC Model Data for the Atlantic Basin" there is an option for "Recon Data for the Atlantic Basin"...once selected you can select the storm and what you want to see from the flights.. :-)
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Quoting AllStar17:
canesrule--

Like my map? I made the "banner" at the top, as well as the "L" symbol

back in a few minutes
very cool
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Quoting Drakoen:
Everyone keeps posting old model plots. Here is the HWRF 12Z:




gfdl 12Z



You think the 5day forecast might touch eastern North Carolina if its further west? Or not that far?
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Ana's western vortex is apparently the predominant one, for it is causing the convective active to 'hook' southward. The anatomy of the cloud field seems to be focusing around it. Such weak center can still relocate north DR, however.
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The tracks you guys keep posting,eerily look like the New England Hurricane of 1938
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Quoting AllStar17:
My Google Earth map showing light winds south of the supposed COC from the NHC. Stronger winds SE of PR. Circulation there instead?

good job keep on bringing it on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
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Quoting canesrule1:
FISHCASTER! FISHCASTER!!! LOL


I think it might graze Canada.. So, I'm more a Canacaster ;)
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Quoting HurricaneKyle:
HWRF 12z run reminds me in Strength and track of Hurricane Isabel.


I got 7.2 ft of surge from that storm, and I'm 12 miles up river from the chesapeake bay!
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Quoting extreme236:
I just don't get it though. You just admitted its based on no facts pretty much and yet you get mad when people call you a wishcaster...in all reality can you blame em?
No biggie.... even he is poking fun at himself. Don't be so serious abt everything....

lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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