Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on August 17, 2009

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Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.

The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).


Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.

Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.

It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.


Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.

Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.

Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.

A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting RyanFSU:
I fixed a link on my webpage to plot all previous Bill forecasts for the HWRF and GFDL. Enjoy.

Link


oh, that's cool! so it did correct itself left a bit so far... Thanks for that!
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1073. fmbill
Quoting IKE:
It should have been listed as an open wave yesterday...just no circulation that I see.

Maybe they should fly north of the islands. That's where most of the convection is...but I don't see a circulation there.

That entire mass of clouds will be approaching SE FL. by tomorrow night.


Where ever they fly, they better get there soon. Remember, this system is moving 28mph!!!

Looking at where they are flying, it seems the system has moved west of where they are sampling the atmosphere.
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Steering Layer 970-989 hPa
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Quoting RyanFSU:
I fixed a link on my webpage to plot all previous Bill forecasts for the HWRF and GFDL. Enjoy.

Link


That is really cool. Thanks.
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Just as a quick diversion, having been in Gulf Shores AL when Opal was coming ashore in '95, here's what the beach looks like today, with Claudette making a little statement. Control the camera and check sand blowing inland, state of the beach, and a GOMEX with a bit of tude.
Link
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1069. Walshy
000
NOUS42 KNHC 171545
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT MON 17 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z AUGUST 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-081

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 18/1800Z,19/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0402A ANA
C. 18/1500Z
D. 21.5N 75.0W
E. 18/1700Z TO 19/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 19/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0502A ANA
C. 19/0200Z
D. 23.0N 78.0W
E. 19/0500Z TO 19/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES
0N ANA BEGINNING AT 19/1500Z. A FIX AT 19/1800Z
AND 20/0600Z ON HURRICANE BILL.

3. REMARKS: NOAA WILL BEGIN FLYING 5 RESEARCH MISSIONS
IN A ROW ON HURRICANE BILL AT 18/0800Z WITH THE P-3
AND G-IV. TAKEOFFS WILL BE EVERY 12 HOURS.



II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP/SEF


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1067. GetReal
Quoting futuremet:


I think the ECMWF will remain obstinate and keep the same track. Regardless, the chance of this going out to sea is still high. The second trough should pick it up.


You made your bed early, so you might as well continue to sleep in it!!! LOL


Once you get burned a few times buying into those 5+ day model runs, you will have a different perspective.
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Not sure if anyone has been following this link on Bill. It is a buoy that is close to the center of Bill.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041
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Quoting TampaTom:
OK, here's what the NHC says for Hurricane Records in the Atlantic:



Costliest storms, based on 'normalized 2005 dollars' (cost of the storm if it followed its path today over the current population):
Miami (1926) $157 billion, Galveston (1900) $99.4 billion, Katrina $81 billion

In 1900 and 1926 we had no internet and live coverage on tv, also its legit to assume that the buildings had other standards back than. Which added up to the damage reported.
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Quoting scCane:
I was about to write this one off as a fish but that was a rather dramatic shift to the left with the models. Im watching this one more closely the ukmet this morning had Bill to close to our coast.


Kinda scary looking. I went through isabel in se VA and I couldn't imagine a cat 3,4, or 5 to hit E-NC or even SE VA! WOW. Scary Thought.
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Quoting TampaTom:
OK, here's what the NHC says for Hurricane Records in the Atlantic:

Highest recorded sustained wind speed:
190 Mph - Allen (1980), Camille (1969)

Lowest recorded barometric pressure:
Wilma (882mb), Gilbert (888mb), 'Labor Day' (892 mb)

Highest number of hurricanes - 15 (2005)

Highest number of retired names - 5 (2005)

Most major hurricanes (cat 3+) - 8 (1950)

Lowest pressure at landfall:
'Labor Day' (892mb), Camille (909 mb), Katrina (920 mb)

Costliest storms, based on 'normalized 2005 dollars' (cost of the storm if it followed its path today over the current population):
Miami (1926) $157 billion, Galveston (1900) $99.4 billion, Katrina $81 billion

Largest storms by gale force diameter:
Danielle (1989) 600 mi, Faith (1966) 528 mi, Gilbert (1988) and Isabel (2003) 500 mi.

Fastest Intensification from a Tropical Storm to a Category 5 Hurricane: 16 hours - 70mph to 155mph - Hurricane Wilma 2005

Maximum pressure drop in 12 hours: 90+mb - Wilma 2005

Maximum pressure drop in 24 hours: 98mb - Wilma 2005 - 1200 UTC October 18 to October 19

Fastest Intensification from a Tropical Depression to a Hurricane: 12 hours - Lorenzo 2007

Fastest Intensification from a Depression to a Category Five Hurricane: 51 Hours - Felix 2007


Out of interest, is Humberto second for fastest intensification from TD to a hurricane?
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1062. jpsb
Quoting BrockBerlin:


Yeah poor Allen it tends to get forgotten but was actually a pretty powerful hurricane (at one time a sub 900mb pressure and 190 mph winds) and still hit Texas (extreme South Texas) as a Cat.3)
Allen was my first real hurricane. I moved to galveston bay from NY, heard a hurricane was comming so I got a keg of beer and drove to the bay to watch the strom role in. Meanwhile EVERYONE was evacuating. lol, should have caught a clue there. Anyway Allen never turn north just went on by, but one little outter band hit my location, blew like hell for 10 minutes, man after that I was very happy Allen when by and now I take hurricanes very seriously.
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1061. RyanFSU
I fixed a link on my webpage to plot all previous Bill forecasts for the HWRF and GFDL. Enjoy.

Link
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1060. NARCHER
recon well south of pr 200 mi' will be interested in data off the nw coast of pr when they fly there later in the recon. but open wave as of now
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1059. WxLogic
Quoting futuremet:


I think the ECMWF will remain obstinate and keep the same track. Regardless, the chance of this going out to sea is still high. The second trough should pick it up.


Waiting for that trough to start developing to see how strong is really going to be.
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Quoting futuremet:
You don't have to always ask for a link when someone post an image. You can drag the image to a new page, and manually decode the link...
Or u can right-click on the image then select properties. This gives u the URL right there to copy and paste.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21565
Ana reminds of Fay somewhat. However, Fay was stronger at this point.
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Quoting Grothar:
It would appear from the current models that Ana may not traverse as much of the DR as the former models indicated. This could possibly result in a stronger depression as it would begin to wrap some of the moisture from its north. Missed a lot of the blogs, but what is the general consensus of the rest of you bloggers on Ana's future, if any.


My .02 on Ana is that she will soon be downgraded to remmant low, with a chance of starting to spin back up into a depression around the FL Keys if she tracks as forecast. I think that the west coast of FL will get a bunch of rain and not much else. But the gulf is bathwater right now, so you never know.
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1055. scCane
I was about to write this one off as a fish but that was a rather dramatic shift to the left with the models. Im watching this one more closely the ukmet this morning had Bill to close to our coast.
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OK, here's what the NHC says for Hurricane Records in the Atlantic:

Highest recorded sustained wind speed:
190 Mph - Allen (1980), Camille (1969)

Lowest recorded barometric pressure:
Wilma (882mb), Gilbert (888mb), 'Labor Day' (892 mb)

Highest number of hurricanes - 15 (2005)

Highest number of retired names - 5 (2005)

Most major hurricanes (cat 3+) - 8 (1950)

Lowest pressure at landfall:
'Labor Day' (892mb), Camille (909 mb), Katrina (920 mb)

Costliest storms, based on 'normalized 2005 dollars' (cost of the storm if it followed its path today over the current population):
Miami (1926) $157 billion, Galveston (1900) $99.4 billion, Katrina $81 billion

Largest storms by gale force diameter:
Danielle (1989) 600 mi, Faith (1966) 528 mi, Gilbert (1988) and Isabel (2003) 500 mi.

Fastest Intensification from a Tropical Storm to a Category 5 Hurricane: 16 hours - 70mph to 155mph - Hurricane Wilma 2005

Maximum pressure drop in 12 hours: 90+mb - Wilma 2005

Maximum pressure drop in 24 hours: 98mb - Wilma 2005 - 1200 UTC October 18 to October 19

Fastest Intensification from a Tropical Depression to a Hurricane: 12 hours - Lorenzo 2007

Fastest Intensification from a Depression to a Category Five Hurricane: 51 Hours - Felix 2007
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"It appears the 38 hurricane may have reached Category 5 strength between the northern Bahamas and the Outer Banks of North Carolina. It is estimated that the barometric pressure was as low as 935-mb (27.62 in.) when the storm was about 100-miles east of Delaware Bay. The 38 hurricane continued northward with little change in strength until landfall on Long Island/Connecticut. It is well known that the summer of 1938 was humid and rainy along the East Coast, and the Bermuda High was displaced to the north and east. This unusual position of the subtropical high, allowed Atlantic Ocean temperatures to reach 80 F further north than normal. It is estimated that the Atlantic Ocean was above 80 F from the central New Jersey coast southward in mid September 1938. The weather pattern that summer also featured a frequent weakness along the middle Atlantic coast... with a strong southerly flow. "



From: http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/hurr1938.htm

Cannot find a reanalysis map of the pressures in the Atlantic for then at the moment (I have done this before), but that track somewhat does look like Bill's up until the models figure on him head NE somewhere east of the Carolinas (Presslord's house alarm just went off to notify him I said Carolinas).

I think the Bermuda High, at the mid-levels, was centered close to 35 N...if I remember right.
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1052. Grothar
It would appear from the current models that Ana may not traverse as much of the DR as the former models indicated. This could possibly result in a stronger depression as it would begin to wrap some of the moisture from its north. Missed a lot of the blogs, but what is the general consensus of the rest of you bloggers on Ana's future, if any.
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Quoting WxLogic:


I feel some jealousy...


I think the ECMWF will remain obstinate and keep the same track. Regardless, the chance of this going out to sea is still high. The second trough should pick it up.
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Quoting BrockBerlin:
Stormtrop is the ultimate doomcaster on this point, his forecast would call for ana to strengthen to 200mph Cat.5 in the gulf and slam New Orleans.


Stormtop said EVERYTHING was going to hit New Orleans...
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 1837
1048. 7544
so is the adt giving the wrong info at 45k or will the plane find this
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6694
Quoting btwntx08:
again coc could have relocated you never know


COC's have the propensity to relocate toward the areas of higher convection. I'll keep a close eye on these regions.
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1046. Patrap
ANA

Latest Dvorak Image

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I seem to remember a hurricane a few years back that was first showing to go out to sea (fish) and did keep moving more and more west until I think it ended up in the Gulf. Which one was that? Anyone remember it?
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ill be back in a bit
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1041. IKE
It should have been listed as an open wave yesterday...just no circulation that I see.

Maybe they should fly north of the islands. That's where most of the convection is...but I don't see a circulation there.

That entire mass of clouds will be approaching SE FL. by tomorrow night.
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1040. WxLogic
Quoting futuremet:


The UKM is trying to outdo the ECMWF I see.


I feel some jealousy...
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Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


I don't think so.. TS-caster!
lol
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1038. Patrap
Quoting btwntx08:

the coc could of relocated just north of dr



But it hasnt,..as the RECON found Zip,NADA,..nuthing..from the west
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1037. slavp
Quoting leftovers:
even without the west i think they will go with contiuation as a td
Why? No westerly winds, no circulation....JMO
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1036. Grothar
Thanks Drak! Interesting link.
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highest winds where the NHC placed the COC
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1034. Engine2
Quoting NEwxguy:
The tracks you guys keep posting,eerily look like the New England Hurricane of 1938

I hope not!
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Quoting WxLogic:
Well... this is becoming more interesting... never seen UKM doing this... but if it does into fruition then I guess this blog will explode again.

12Z UKM seems to be forecasting some weakening of Bill and bringing it towards the northern part of the Greater Antilles. I believe it might be predicting some SAL and drier air preventing Bill from acquiring too much power and not being able to feel the trough enough for a sea type event.


The UKM is trying to outdo the ECMWF I see.
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1031. Patrap
.."There used to be a cookie factory,in the West,..so obviously,..we liked the West Wind,..the Best"...
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Quoting canesrule1:
Who other than me thinks SFLA will be under a Tropical Storm watch tomorrow?


I don't think so.. TS-caster!
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1027. WxLogic
Well... this is becoming more interesting... never seen UKM doing this... but if it does into fruition then I guess this blog will explode again.

12Z UKM seems to be forecasting some weakening of Bill and bringing it towards the northern part of the Greater Antilles. I believe it might be predicting some SAL and drier air preventing Bill from acquiring too much power and not being able to feel the trough enough for a sea type event.
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1025. Drakoen
Quoting largeeyes:
Hmmmmmm. The 12Z models have my attention.

Drak---NC should keep their eyes peeled, but no worry yet?
Quoting largeeyes:
Hmmmmmm. The 12Z models have my attention.

Drak---NC should keep their eyes peeled, but no worry yet?


yea
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Judging by the recon, Ana's an Open Tropical wave. I half expect advisory to end at 5 PM with the note of regeneration possible.

Once the remains get in the gulf of Mexico and especially after watching how fast Claudette span up, we'll have to watch it.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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