Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on August 17, 2009

Share this Blog
6
+

Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.

The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).


Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.

Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.

It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.


Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.

Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.

Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.

A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1374 - 1324

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90Blog Index

1374. Skyepony (Mod)
Jeff thanks for the preview of another great product:)

Recon just hit an area of 1011mb (pretty much the lowest they are finding so far), around 18.367N 67.450W. Interesting the wind dropped to nothing at the surface & below 10kt at ~500ft (flight level). No west wind yet..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Very small eye now showing on IR, smack dab in the center of the CDO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
one thing to note about the forecast points ... storms always appear to hit "them". really "them" is the first and second only, because the points get changed by the time the storm reaches the second ... giving appearance of dead-on track

**not to say NHC is wrong, just pointing that out


Every time they update the package the points move, giving the impression that the system always hits the points. I have however seen where the points are missed repeatedly especially late in the season when the track can become very hard to forecast and deviation can be significant in a short period of time between updates.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15890
Quoting WeatherStudent:


screw you then.


Its funny how much you look like our friend JFV.

http://74.125.47.132/search?q=cache:SdY5ib_9CFEJ:www.wunderground.com/wximage/viewsingleimage.html%3 Fmode%3Dsingleimage%26handle%3DJFV%26number%3D0+JFV+Weather+Underground&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1370. Grothar
Quoting Drakoen:


????????????????????????



NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


You are way too funny! Don't lose your sense of humor.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1369. FTLGUY
Appears Bill will miss any significant effects from first trough
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2PM NHC On BILL (excerpt):
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL AT 17/1500 UTC IS NEAR 14.1N 45.2W...OR ABOUT 1080 MILES/1735 KM TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BILL MAY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WED...
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11390
1367. Drakoen
Bill.....ster

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


????????????????????????



NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


You and WS seem to have a 'special' relationship thats for sure. God I love this blog, man! LMAO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NHC:
"Wave and current action associated with the tide also causes extensive damage. Water weighs approximately 1,700 pounds per cubic yard; extended pounding by frequent waves can demolish any structure not specifically designed to withstand such forces."

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Well fortunately a Island dosent have a large enough coastline for a surge to Pile Up on,most of the energy is deflected around a Island..in Most cases,sav for bays and Inlets.

Surge from Ivan in Grand Cayman was up one side and off the other. We are flat so we don't have flooding problem.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting donna1960ruled:
Similarities between Bill and the Hurricane of 38'? The hit would come almost to the day.

If the NNE turn comes later than 71" West, chance of an Eastern Long Island/ Cape Cod hit is at least 25%. 38 storm actually bent NNW after the turn as it accelerated.

Very concerned about the rough surf conditions that will begin being felt by late weekend.

38 cane was September 21st...Bill isn't going to slow down that much...speed up, in fact.
I think you are a full month off.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1361. pottery
Looking at Billy-Boy putting on a major improvement right now. Approaching D-Min!
A great storm to look at. A good storm to stay away from everyone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From the NHC:

STORM SURGE
"The greatest potential for loss of life related to a hurricane is from the storm surge."

Storm surge is simply water that is pushed toward the shore by the force of the winds swirling around the storm. This advancing surge combines with the normal tides to create the hurricane storm tide, which can increase the mean water level 15 feet or more. In addition, wind driven waves are superimposed on the storm tide. This rise in water level can cause severe flooding in coastal areas, particularly when the storm tide coincides with the normal high tides. Because much of the United States' densely populated Atlantic and Gulf Coast coastlines lie less than 10 feet above mean sea level, the danger from storm tides is tremendous.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Extended Forecast Discussion


A RECENT EXAMPLE OF THE GFS INSTABILITY IS ITS
HANDLING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONES CURRENTLY OVER THE ATLANTIC.
JUST A FEW DAYS AGO...THE GFS WAS DIRECTING AT LEAST ONE OF THESE
SYSTEMS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND EASTERN STATES...WITH LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF THE SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH THE GUIDANCE
HAS FINALLY CONVERGED UPON CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.



FINAL...

THE 12Z/17 ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD THE 00Z/17 EC ENSEMBLE MEAN DAYS 5
THROUGH 7...WITH A MORE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST
DAY 5...AND LESS AMPLITUDE WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING ALONG THE
CANADIAN/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER DAY 7. THE INCORPORATION OF A
SUBSTANTIAL CHUNK OF THE OLD MEAN IN THE UPDATE PACKAGE COVERED
THESE DIFFERENCES ADEQUATELY...SO MADE NO CHANGES FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE. THE GFS IS STILL NOT ON THE SAME PAGE WITH THE TIMING
AND WAVELENGTH OF THE BIG TROUGH CROSSING THE EAST.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1358. Walshy
Quoting SavannahStorm:
Wait... What happened to the models??

This thing was supposed to go safely out to seas this morning...



Slight chance it gets a tad closer to the east coast. Will have to see if the models continue to show this over night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Good afternoon, everybody.


Hellloooo Newwwman ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:


Gotcha.. Thanks - isn't that "unofficial" information though?
IDK but seems pretty accurate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


????????????????????????



NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


/concur
arg.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:

NHC as of 2:05 Discussion (excerpt)
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA AT 17/1800 UTC IS NEAR 17.6N 67.3W...OR ABOUT 105 MILES/165 KM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...AND ABOUT 165 MILES/265 KM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
On the IR you can see it better. Looks to me around 17N and 68W. What is seen further N seems to be a blow up of convection.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1353. Dakster
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
That information is the 1815 from the US Navy site


Gotcha.. Thanks - isn't that "unofficial" information though?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10572
1352. Patrap
Quoting Dakster:


It tough to run from water on an Island too!


Well fortunately a Island dosent have a large enough coastline for a surge to Pile Up on,most of the energy is deflected around a Island..in Most cases,sav for bays and Inlets.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaTom:


Some folks don't understand the threat they face... The shots of Gilcrist Texas after Ike will be eerily similar to shots taken of St. Pete Beach, Treasure Island and other places after we get our storm through....


I took a look at those surge maps... I'm far enough north of the worst-case scenario that I still remain unworried about flooding. The building I'm in would probably be demolished by the cat 5 winds, but flash flooding would be the only flooding concern.

I understand people's desire to live on a beautiful beach... I also think that to do so is a bad thing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1350. ph34683
Quoting JeffMasters:


Coming soon, I'll have a full set of storm surge maps for the coast. You can take a sneak preview:

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/FlGulfCoastSurge.asp

Jeff Masters
Very cool! Thanks!! It appears, by these maps, that we'd not flood even in a Cat 5 hitting at high tide. That's a relief! The roof will probably be gone and three trees on top of our house...but it won't flood.

I think we'll just plan on taking everything and heading north for a while. Luckily my company has an office in Boston.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bill is a large and dangerous hurricane on the cusp of reaching rapid intensification. Why? Look at the enhanced convection that has taken place the last few hours. It will be amazing to watch him tonight and tomorrow. Still thinking a track comparable to Hurricane Irene of 2005.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wait... What happened to the models??

This thing was supposed to go safely out to seas this morning...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1347. 7544
Quoting fmbill:
HH's showing a slight drop in pressure as they head north.


maybe they will find this further north

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 /1000.0mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.0 3.2 3.9
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1346. Walshy
Quoting Drakoen:


I think i'm gonna cry :'(



Haters and posers make you famous.

: ) Look at it that way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1322....Drakoen, you just made me bust out laughing..LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting donna1960ruled:
Similarities between Bill and the Hurricane of 38'? The hit would come almost to the day.

If the NNE turn comes later than 71" West, chance of an Eastern Long Island/ Cape Cod hit is at least 25%. 38 storm actually bent NNW after the turn as it accelerated.

Very concerned about the rough surf conditions that will begin being felt by late weekend.


or worse....the 1893 huuricane which made a direct hit on nyc
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:

NHC as of 2:05 Discussion (excerpt)
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA AT 17/1800 UTC IS NEAR 17.6N 67.3W...OR ABOUT 105 MILES/165 KM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...AND ABOUT 165 MILES/265 KM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.


no,I mean on that one you sent before.. if you look at the future plot points it shows them close to where you said.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1341. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
Could Ana's center reform around 19N 69W?
Loop


Looking at the satellite images that would be my guess for where the circulation is reforming. Looks to be just to the south of that latest blow up of convection.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1339. Dakster
Quoting TampaTom:


Some folks don't understand the threat they face... The shots of Gilcrist Texas after Ike will be eerily similar to shots taken of St. Pete Beach, Treasure Island and other places after we get our storm through....


It tough to run from water on an Island too!
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10572
Quoting Dakster:


Where are you getting realtime measurements of Bill? are the HH in bill too?
That information is the 1815 from the US Navy site
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:

14.4 N? that's current?
Quoting Dakster:


Where are you getting realtime measurements of Bill? are the HH in bill too?
No Recon is not in Bill, someone posted it. Yes it is current.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1332. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:


????????????????????????



NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


no..............................!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1331. Drakoen
Quoting WxLogic:


lol


I think i'm gonna cry :'(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:

Well they have it at 69.5 and 19.5 so I'd think it possible? Or am I looking at the plot points incorrectly?

NHC as of 2:05 Discussion (excerpt)
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA AT 17/1800 UTC IS NEAR 17.6N 67.3W...OR ABOUT 105 MILES/165 KM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...AND ABOUT 165 MILES/265 KM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11390
1329. Walshy
O' god he is back.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:
Cool maps from Dr. Masters for the Storm Surge. I have seen some that were done for the SE Florida Coast..

It is kindo f funny that most people are concerned about the wind speed of a Hurricane and not the several story high wall of water coming at them.


Some folks don't understand the threat they face... The shots of Gilcrist Texas after Ike will be eerily similar to shots taken of St. Pete Beach, Treasure Island and other places after we get our storm through....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1327. fmbill
HH's showing a slight drop in pressure as they head north.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1326. WxLogic
Quoting Drakoen:


????????????????????????



NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1324. Patrap
NOLA Discussion


Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1374 - 1324

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
60 °F
Overcast