Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on August 17, 2009

Share this Blog
6
+

Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.

The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).


Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.

Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.

It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.


Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.

Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.

Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.

A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1424 - 1374

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90Blog Index

Quoting midgulfmom:
I've heard over the years "mets" say a storm will slow before it changes direction/turns, should we expect that from Bill and be anticipating a decrease in forward motion soon? Just asking. Thanks


You would be correct in assuming a change in forward motion; that much storm has a pretty long wheelbase and needs some room to turn and can't turn very drastically at higher speed...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:


yeah thats what its showing and pres. droping in the last 4 hours 5mb am i missing something dosent this mean anna is ganing in strenth
dont think so
1421. Walshy
During active periods of hurricane season, these rules will be strictly enforced. Violations will be met with a minimum 24 hour ban.

Report and move on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:


yeah thats what its showing and pres. droping in the last 4 hours 5mb am i missing something dosent this mean anna is ganing in strenth

those ADT #'s aren't accurate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1419. CJ5
Quoting WeatherStudent:


screw you then.


That should bring a ban.

Besides, you should know how to bookmark sites by now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not too many Fire Ants in Mobile (at least not in my yard), must be a good sign.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1417. 7544
Quoting canesrule1:
winds at 50+MPH and pressure is dropping. HUH?


yeah thats what its showing and pres. droping in the last 4 hours 5mb am i missing something dosent this mean anna is ganing in strenth
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Huh ??. Almost half of Grand Cayman was underwater during Ivan, including my living room that had 5 feet of salt water in it.


Some areas had 13 feet! Look at Pedro Castle...the fact that the parking lot was ripped up and huge coral heads were up there is amazing. We didn't get any in Boltin's Ave, in West Bay. I was hearing people say they are happy to live in that area because we don't get surge there even though we're close to the sea, but I guarantee that if Ivan had come from a different direction it would have been a different story.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JupiterFL:


Its funny how much you look like our friend JFV.

http://74.125.47.132/search?q=cache:SdY5ib_9CFEJ:www.wunderground.com/wximage/viewsingleimage.html%3 Fmode%3Dsingleimage%26handle%3DJFV%26number%3D0+JFV+Weather+Underground&cd=1&hl=en&ct=cl nk&gl=us



I remember JFV would get banned about every other day in years past.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jpsb:
If I were living in the Northen Antilles I'd be booking the next flight out.
I'm in the "crow nest" looking, believe me, I'm and old crow and also not a met, but had lived through so many hurricanes already; conditions can change quick with mayor (cat.3 to 5) hurricanes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I've heard over the years "mets" say a storm will slow before it changes direction/turns, should we expect that from Bill and be anticipating a decrease in forward motion soon? Just asking. Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have a possible dumb question.. in the WU image for Ana, 2pm model...in the info box it states the hours and mph.. now..IF I AM reading this correct (which most likely I am not) says that Ana in 48 hours will have possible 58mph winds?? plz help.. thanks..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bill Right on track NHC folks are the WORD. The storm starting to fell the thought above right in the spot that NHC call it yesterday. Approaching 50W. Fishy Bill thanks GOD!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1410. Walshy

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Those models are still 12 Zulu runs. Why is that site always so slow to update? I guess I am getting what I paid for it which is nothing.


Quoting Floodman:


I've given you these for two years running now; please hang on to them, okay?

Model collection site

Now, if you would, please stop being abusive towards people like Drak, one of the more knowledgeable users of this site...if you must tell him to get bent, please do it in an email, or something, huh?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
I was just about to say that it has been nice how the blog today has pretty well focused on the tropics, rather than any individuals present or not present, as a primary topic of conversation.

If you don't feed a feral cat anything, it moves.

LOL :o) I said how nice it was earlier.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:
whats going on with this adt stuff and the hh not finding what its showing im getting confued it drop 6mb so far today and still falling

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.8mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.1 3.2 3.9
winds at 50+MPH and pressure is dropping. HUH?
1405. 7544
adt now showing 47k for anna

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.8mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.1 3.2 3.9
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1404. Patrap
WV loop,Near tropical Basin,Bill Not in frame
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like some good surfing in the Outer Banks in a few days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1402. Fshhead
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:


Hellloooo Newwwman ;)


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!
CLASSIC!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1400. Engine2
Quoting JeffMasters:


http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/NewEngSurge.asp

Jeff



Thank you! How about anything for Long Island?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wonder why the Navy sites graphics are down...been that way for 2-3 days now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherStudent:


screw you then.


I've given you these for two years running now; please hang on to them, okay?

Model collection site

Now, if you would, please stop being abusive towards people like Drak, one of the more knowledgeable users of this site...if you must tell him to get bent, please do it in an email, or something, huh?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:

I see it, he is a big red X.... lmao



Arrrghhh....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1395. Drakoen
Quoting atmoaggie:
I was just about to say that it has been nice how the blog today has pretty well focused on the tropics, rather than any individuals present or not present, as a primary topic of conversation.

If you don't feed a feral cat anything, it moves.


LOL did I ruin it for you atmo?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1394. PSL2007
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Good afternoon, everybody.


Good afternoon!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1392. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting Engine2:

Dr. Masters how about a storm surge map for Southern New England?


http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/NewEngSurge.asp

Jeff



Computer Model Comparisons
12Z Model Runs


18Z Model Runs
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Surge from Ivan in Grand Cayman was up one side and off the other. We are flat so we don't have flooding problem.


Huh ??. Almost half of Grand Cayman was underwater during Ivan, including my living room that had 5 feet of salt water in it.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15826
Quoting DestinJeff:
one thing to note about the forecast points ... storms always appear to hit "them". really "them" is the first and second only, because the points get changed by the time the storm reaches the second ... giving appearance of dead-on track

**not to say NHC is wrong, just pointing that out


Good point to remind everyone of DestinJeff! Enjoy the rain this morning? Claudette didn't whip up much for winds in the FWB area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I was just about to say that it has been nice how the blog today has pretty well focused on the tropics, rather than any individuals present or not present, as a primary topic of conversation.

If you don't feed a feral cat anything, it moves.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1387. kabloie
Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
what happen here the models are going back to the west not good.


I sure was liking the idea that the UKMET run was wrong, but that's one model that does tend to be out front.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormSurgeon:
Anybody else having a problem seeing Walshy's avatar?

I see it, he is a big red X.... lmao
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1385. 7544
whats going on with this adt stuff and the hh not finding what its showing im getting confued it drop 6mb so far today and still falling

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 998.8mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.1 3.2 3.9
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Any updates on the wave behind bill and claudettes remnants?
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 11 Comments: 2032
Anybody else having a problem seeing Walshy's avatar?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Drak....just getting back on since this am. I saw in a previous post, you stated a slight change in the 12z? Is this because it's not feeling the through yet?

thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1381. Patrap
Quoting kmanislander:


Every time they update the package the points move, giving the impression that the system always hits the points. I have however seen where the points are missed repeatedly especially late in the season when the track can become very hard to forecast and deviation can be significant in a short period of time between updates.



Thnax for the clarification on that KMan..

I wasnt going near it..LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JupiterFL:


Its funny how much you look like our friend JFV.

http://74.125.47.132/search?q=cache:SdY5ib_9CFEJ:www.wunderground.com/wximage/viewsingleimage.html%3 Fmode%3Dsingleimage%26handle%3DJFV%26number%3D0+JFV+Weather+Underground&cd=1&hl=en&ct=cl nk&gl=us


Busted!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1379. jscs
Quoting btwntx08:
if bill keeps going more west the models will keep moving it more westward imo


Ya think?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


????????????????????????



NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!




:) Back on topic now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


????????????????????????



NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


I actually think that this comment section of the blog is only really here to ammuse Dr. Masters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1376. Dakster
WS - Are you back from a timeout?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10291
1375. Patrap
40 Years ago this Night,..Storm Surge from Camille a cat-5 took Hundreds of Lives by Dawn the 18th.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1374. Skyepony (Mod)
Jeff thanks for the preview of another great product:)

Recon just hit an area of 1011mb (pretty much the lowest they are finding so far), around 18.367N 67.450W. Interesting the wind dropped to nothing at the surface & below 10kt at ~500ft (flight level). No west wind yet..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1424 - 1374

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
73 °F
Overcast