Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on August 17, 2009

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Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.

The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).


Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.

Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.

It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.


Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.

Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.

Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.

A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Acemmett90:
pat
Sports Casting



are you looking forword too a 24hr ban ??
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114916
Quoting GatorWX:


If its the same system, ie never completely dissipated whether it degenerated back to an open wave or jst a remnant swirl of low level clouds, it keeps the same name. They should have done this with td10, which is what trned out to be Katrina. Instead they started a new system. Remember what Ivan did? It did a complete loop through the cons and still regenerated. They kept the name Ivan when it reformed into a TS.


I think the key is it was a named storm, ie. Ana and Ivan.....
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1822. GatorWX
We should have a visible eye here in the next 6-8 hrs imo. Looks like it's almost there, but since it's not developing at an intense rate, so it'll take some time.
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Quoting lovesdanger:
katrinagirl you dont like danger hun..i thought you were a go getter with hurricanes.
just not ready to have to go through this again...too soon...besides my mail route took a giant hit last time. A good portion of it is on the Biloxi River they flood when we get too much rain...
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456,

you monitoring Bill?

And, do you think Ana could regenerate north of Hispaniola and Cuba (in the Bahamas)? I think there is a chance, it will be under warm waters, and in a conducive environment
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Quoting JupiterFL:


I am not sure but if you look through this peep hole you might find out.


Now, that is out of order, Sir...

lol
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 488
Quoting louisianaboy444:
I wouldnt even know how to use a snow plow "how you turn this darn thing on!"


Hey - worked for me with the whole weed wacker/lawn edger thing...
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1817. GatorWX
Quoting southbeachdude:


I believe it will still be Ana if/when it reforms....


If its the same system, ie never completely dissipated whether it degenerated back to an open wave or jst a remnant swirl of low level clouds, it keeps the same name. They should have done this with td10, which is what trned out to be Katrina. Instead they started a new system. Remember what Ivan did? It did a complete loop through the cons and still regenerated. They kept the name Ivan when it reformed into a TS.
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Quoting PSL2007:


maybe some snow in Miami for Christmas?

Bill is looking good and following the predicted path.


halloween actually
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Quoting junie1:
bill is going to have to take a very hard shift to the north west if its to miss the northeaster islands i live in the virgin islands so i know better than to put all my faith into forcast models


i believe still on its current track with no more N component to it (doubtful) it'll still skirt
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Quoting BeanTech:
@1782:

Too much mouth...

And is that a belt or the bottom of her bra?


I am not sure but if you look through this peep hole you might find out.
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1813. Patrap
Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
so Pat, is this a possibility for development...looks crazy....jsut went through one of those bands on my way home from work and it was aweful...35 mph on I-10



Itsa breezy in dat stuff,downdrafts,Updrafts..Saints Draft,,Dixie Draft.
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1812. MrSea
Quoting HurricaneFCast:
Let's vote: Who would consider Bill annular at the moment?


Right now its not annular, annular hurricanes are axisymmetrical, and their CDO is a completely circular ring. you can clearly see that the CDO on bill is still a spiral and by no means is symmetrical

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Gosh, please NO!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 488
Quoting BeanTech:


I'll update my avatar w/ one that shows a bit more skin.


LMAO.. Oh yes pls do cause Richard Simmons is such a hunk. ;)
Now im gonna get in trouble haha
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Quoting Weather456:


Shifted slightly to the left, 456.
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1808. PSL2007
Quoting jpsb:
Yes, I believe the Earth is going into a cool cycle, I've been stocking up on fire wood and I live in S.E. Texas.


maybe some snow in Miami for Christmas?

Bill is looking good and following the predicted path.
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I wouldnt even know how to use a snow plow "how you turn this darn thing on!"
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Quoting Acemmett90:
pat
Sports Casting


As a man who appreciates an intelligent woman, I am hereby stating that those ladies are there for a reason, they look very 'articulate'...

;-)
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 488
1805. bcn
NHC "AND THROUGH THAT TIME THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
BEYOND THAT TIME ALMOST ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO
THE LEFT..."

Could someone explain the meaning of that?
Thanks.
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1802. Patrap
Near Real-time CLAVR-x Products



7-Day Loop
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Quoting BeanTech:
@1782:

Too much mouth...

And is that a belt or the bottom of her bra?


Oh was I suppose to be looking at that????

mmmmmmm

Taco :0)
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Quoting lovesdanger:
very dumb move by the nhc to stop advisories on ana...she will be our worse nightmare this weekend..when are these people going to learn as long as she still exists she is dangerous..katrina all over again..
I agree with what you are saying but bite your tongue pleeeeaaase!!!
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Quoting BeanTech:


I hear ya eddye...I just saw Richard Simmons boarding up his place on Palm Beach and heading West...

...I'm just saying


I would rather stay in Palm Beach then head to Belle Glade...
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1798. jpsb
Quoting louisianaboy444:
Off topic but i think the South will have a harder winter this year...More chances for snow and ice storms usually accompany a El Nino Winter
Yes, I believe the Earth is going into a cool cycle, I've been stocking up on fire wood and I live in S.E. Texas.
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Quoting Acemmett90:
pat
Sports Casting


The fox chick is hotter...lol.

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Quoting HurricaneFCast:
That image is 3 hours old.
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Quoting lovesdanger:
very dumb move by the nhc to stop advisories on ana...she will be our worse nightmare this weekend..when are these people going to learn as long as she still exists she is dangerous..katrina all over again..


New Stormtop in the house
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
Stop posting pictures of women like that my girlfriend is in the blog yall gunna get me in trouble lol

I was just wishing for equal time for the gals to have something to look at...
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Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting CaneWarning:


I'm going to start flagging posts that use the term _____caster. It's getting old.
Here we go agian with the lack of freedom of weather talk or speech on this blog!
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Let's vote: Who would consider Bill annular at the moment?
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Quoting Patrap:



.."FOX"-Casting..?










Are we supposed to be looking at the map?

LOL!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 488
Stop posting pictures of women like that my girlfriend is in the blog yall gunna get me in trouble lol
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Quoting Patrap:
so Pat, is this a possibility for development...looks crazy....jsut went through one of those bands on my way home from work and it was aweful...35 mph on I-10
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Quoting Patrap:



.."FOX"-Casting..?











Casting or not.... much more watchable than Jim Cantore.

WOW
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Quoting divdog:

saw this a little earlier but was quoted the last advisory on claudette when i mentioned it. Seems my eyes may have not deceived me and something has been left behind ??
Noticed it myself but radar echos are diminishing not intensifying like what happened when this storm was around the Florida Keys. We'll see.
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Quoting Patrap:



.."FOX"-Casting..?










Hahaha
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1775. eddye
the trough is weakinng the one that is forcast to pull bill out to sea is weakinging bad news for fl or nc
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Quoting alaina1085:


You probably will, especially living in North Louisiana. I hope we have snow again here.


I'm looking forward to a nice big Nor'easter here in MD. Like '93 or '96!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.