Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on August 17, 2009

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Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.

The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).


Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.

Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.

It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.


Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.

Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.

Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.

A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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3873. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
anyone know where the lowest pressure are for ana? south of cuba


The vorticity is between eastern Cuba and Haiti....NOGAPS has that heading to Mobile and Pensacola....

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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number ONE
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 01-20092010
4:00 AM Réunion August 18 2009
===========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 01-20092010 (1004 hPa) located at 7.5S 85.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving east-southeast at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 8.5S 86.1E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 10.3S 86.1E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 12.3S 84.6E - Se Dissipant

Additional Information
========================

Regular Advisories Is Not Justified At This Intensity

---
I totally missed an advisory did not expect Mauritius to start advisories on 90S already


Its rather early for them
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
3870. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number ONE
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 01-20092010
4:00 AM Runion August 18 2009
===========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 01R (1004 hPa) located at 7.5S 85.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving east-southeast at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 8.5S 86.1E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 10.3S 86.1E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 12.3S 84.6E - Se Dissipant

Additional Information
========================

Regular Advisories Is Not Justified At This Intensity

---
I totally missed an advisory did not expect Mauritius to start advisories on 90S already
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Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning,

Hurricane Bill: Where is he heading?


Morning, thanks for the update
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3867. Mikla
Bill w/ models, 06Z Surface Analysis and 60% opacity IR Sat...
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3866. russh46
Thanks for the update 456
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Good Morning,

Hurricane Bill: Where is he heading?
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
3864. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUILLERMO (EP102009)
9:00 AM UTC August 18 2009
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Guillermo (1007 hPa) located at 23.9N 148.9W or 425 NM northeast of Hilo, Hawaii has sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 18 knots.

Gale-force Winds
================
220 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 25.4N 151.2W - 40 knots (Tropical Storm)
24 HRS: 27.3N 154.7W - 40 knots (Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 29.7N 162.1W - 35 knots (Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 29.8N 168.1W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
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3863. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
TROPICAL STORM VAMCO (T0910)
18:00 PM JST August 18 2009
=========================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon South-southeast Of Minamitori-sima

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Vamco (996 hPa) located at 16.4N 157.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The storm is reported as moving north slowly

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Gale-Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
24 HRS: 18.5N 156.0E - 45 knots (Cat 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 20.0N 155.2E - 55 knots (Cat 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 21.8N 154.6E - 65 knots (Cat 3/Typhoon)
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It looks like Bill is having alot of trouble with the SAL this morning.
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Good morning everyone
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Hi all, I that Ex-Ana between Cuba and Bahamas?


Hi Aussie -

That's what is left of poor old Ana, have to give her credit, she will still make her presence felt with some rainfall. Wonder if she's got another comeback in her?
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Quoting InTheCone:
Morning All -

Looks like it's going to get a bit damp in So. Fl., hopefully nothing else...


Hi all, I that Ex-Ana between Cuba and Bahamas?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 16015
3854. breald
It looks like further east Bill stays the weaker he will be. The GFS, which is the model furthest east has the weakest sustained winds prediction. Bermuda needs keep an eye on this. At the least they will get some very rough surf. As well as the east coast. Be careful if you head out to the beach this weekend.

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Nite everyone!

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06z NAM @ 30 hrs...

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Quoting KoritheMan:
Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable for redevelopment of Ana.


There is some shear too last time I look..
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Morning All -

Looks like it's going to get a bit damp in So. Fl., hopefully nothing else...

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Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable for redevelopment of Ana.
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We will need to see the quickscat on Ana to see if there is any circulation..
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3847. Walshy
The initial motion is 285/15. Bill is on the south side of a
low/mid-level ridge...which should steer the hurricane generally
west-northwestward for the next couple of days. After that...the
large-scale models forecast the ridge to weaken as a series of
troughs move through the western Atlantic and the eastern United
States. One mid/upper-level trough is currently northeast of
Bermuda...moving southward. A second mid/upper-level trough is
along the East Coast of the United States...forecast to move
eastward and then southward. Finally...a strong deep-layer trough
is forecast to develop over the eastern United States between
72-120 hr. All track guidance indicates that Bill should turn
northward in response to the troughs...but there is some notable
spread in where and when.
The ECMWF...GFS...GFS ensemble mean...
and the BAM models turn Bill northward between 62w-65w in response
to the first two troughs. The remainder of the track guidance
calls for the northward turn between 65w-70w...due to less response
to the first two troughs and the eventual effect of the third
trough.

The previous forecast track was in the western cluster...
and there is no obvious reason to jump the forecast to the eastern
cluster. Therefore...the new track is down the middle of the
western guidance cluster and similar to the previous forecast.

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3846. Walshy
Statement as of 5:00 am AST on August 18, 2009


trmm data from 0223 UTC and recent infrared imagery suggest that
Bill is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle...with the coldest
cloud tops currently in the outer convective ring. Satellite
intensity estimates remain 90 kt from SAB and 77 kt from TAFB. The
initial intensity is 85 kt...and this could be generous due to the
eyewall replacement.
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On my post below it says the remnants of Ana will be moving south of Florida tonight. And it looks like shes trying to come back as well.
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Quoting connie1976:
Is it just me or does the track keep shifting west? I heard on the weather channel that the hurricane hunters are going into it this morning?? They keep saying that it isn't going to hit the US, but I have an awful feeling that it will...I think anyone on the east coast from florida all the way up should watch this....
Yes, the track keeps shifting west, like 456 stated above. The NHC has the track down the middle of the western group of models on this advisory. I too am not sold on the sharp recurve and haven't been since this weekend. Don't get me wrong here...I'm not saying it's gonna be a US landfall either. But the reason I'm not buying the recurve yet is because the models jumped on this solution abruptly, while still many days out. This is dependent on the evolution of multiple upstream troughs and is a VERY complex pattern. Not something models excel at many days in advance.
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Please tell me that that blow up just N of Hispanola is not Ana trying to redevelop, yesterday the local news said Ana was dead.
If she redevelops will certainly catch many off guard here in S Fl and points beyond into the hot gulf.
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Is it just me or does the track keep shifting west? I heard on the weather channel that the hurricane hunters are going into it this morning?? They keep saying that it isn't going to hit the US, but I have an awful feeling that it will...I think anyone on the east coast from florida all the way up should watch this....
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Tampa I can really see what you are talking about in this image..
It will be interesting to see if it pushes south or not.
WV Enhanced 12
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MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE COME DOWN AS CLAUDETTE HAS
MOVED INLAND AND DISSIPATED...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO
15 KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM ANA...MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE WAVE WILL TRACK
WWD AND WEAKEN AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

A COUPLE OF TROUGHS IN THE ATLC...ONE FROM 31N73W TO 23N80W THE
OTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N66W TO HAITI. BOTH TROUGHS WILL
DRIFT W AND WEAKEN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE N PORTION OF
THE AREA...WITH STRONGER WINDS...AROUND 20 TO AROUND 25 KT...S
OF AROUND 24N AS A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
ANA MOVES WWD ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS FROM HURRICANE BILL WILL
WILL INCREASE OVER THE FAR E PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THU.
THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE INTO THE NE ATLC ZONE LATE FRI AND INTO
SAT. THEREFORE HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WILL BE HEADLINED.

HURRICANE BILL IS FORECAST TO CROSS 55W...NEAR 18.1N 55.3W...BY
EARLY WED AND THU WITH WINDS OF 105 KT GUSTS TO 130 KT. THE
HURRICANE WILL BE JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA BY THU EVENING...
HOWEVER TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LINGER OVER THE FAR
NW PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ANA...NOW A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W MOVING W AT
20 KT. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK W INTO THE WESTERN
CARRIBEAN TONIGHT THEN W OF THE AREA LATE WED.
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Thanks weather, g'night
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I am not and won't but not that long ago, they had floods off of just rain...because their house is either at or below sea level...anyways it is a very low lying area. And they are soooo stubborn! They don't have cable, and they don't listen to the radio (it is almost like you are amish in that part of MD) Anyways, I figured I should let them know...they won't follow up otherwise. Thanks again. Back to bed!
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Quoting RainyEyes:
That wasn't based on the 5am update was it 456?


yeah
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting RainyEyes:
Thanks Tampa...That is not good! I have family that live on a susceptible island in Maryland. They are elderly and would never evacuate since they never get hit with storms really. That scares me more then if it were aimed at me because at least I would be able to leave, use hurricane shutters, etc...

Thanks Again...I will call them and let them know to follow the updates.

Shannon


Don't over react but, yes they need to follow this over the next 2 days......a better picture will become very clear in 2 days!
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3835. Walshy
Quoting TampaSpin:


Raineyes yes. I think the OuterBanks of North Carolina Northward should monitor this very close....That trough is very far North....Bill may not feel that trough enough......and it appears as 456 just posted that the models just shifted to the left which i thought that would looking at what is developing.....they will probaly shift left even further on the next run also.....I don't think the Islands are completely out of harms way yet.



089
fxus62 kilm 180653
afdilm


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
253 am EDT Tuesday Aug 18 2009


Synopsis...
high pressure will extend across the area from the Atlantic through
Friday. A cold front will affect the area late Saturday into Monday.
Hurricane Bill is expected to eventually curve north and remain well
east of the region. Increasing swell waves from Hurricane Bill will
increase the threat of rip currents and high surf from Thursday into
the weekend.

Long term /Friday through Saturday/...
as of 2:45 am Tuesday...southerly flow will continue through the
period and increase in magnitude. The big story will be the long
period swells and higher seas from Bill that continue through the
end of the period. Headlines may be required for Sat with wwiii
pushing seas to 7-8 feet just outside the ilm waters.

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3834. bcn
Quoting Weather456:
Track shifted left again



Yes, and NHC discussion says it is an average of two posibilities, ono more at left, the other at right.
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Off to bed. Click on my nick if you want to read my blog - I'm sufficiently tired as to officially say I WANT TO SLEEP!

Yes!
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1988
Thanks Tampa...That is not good! I have family that live on a susceptible island in Maryland. They are elderly and would never evacuate since they never get hit with storms really. That scares me more then if it were aimed at me because at least I would be able to leave, use hurricane shutters, etc...

Thanks Again...I will call them and let them know to follow the updates.

Shannon
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Quoting RainyEyes:


While nothing in weather is certain, I thought that we could say with a relatively affirmative feeling that Bill was going up and out to sea without impacting the US...Has this changed or can this change? That looks like it is going to be a big nasty storm and if it catches people off guard who believe it is a fish strom, this will be deadly! Any insight would be great!


Raineyes yes. I think the OuterBanks of North Carolina Northward should monitor this very close....That trough is very far North....Bill may not feel that trough enough......and it appears as 456 just posted that the models just shifted to the left which i thought that would looking at what is developing.....they will probaly shift left even further on the next run also.....I don't think the Islands are completely out of harms way yet.
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That wasn't based on the 5am update was it 456?
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Quoting homelesswanderer:
Sorry lopaka. :)


It was my goof I miss the part where you said below NO.
I was trying to multi-task to no avail..
I don't worry about making a mistake here lol someone will come up behind you and either correct you or clean up your mess..
;=)
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Okay, now I'm going to sleep. :)
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Lots of dry air getting entrained in the core and will inhibit significant strengthening until Bill can expel it.
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Track shifted left again

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting TampaSpin:
That HIgh pressure in the GOM worries me.....it seems to be building NOrth......if Bill does not hurry soon.....The HIgh from the GOM could pinch off the trough to fast and allow High pressure to build back in faster than the models have it....


While nothing in weather is certain, I thought that we could say with a relatively affirmative feeling that Bill was going up and out to sea without impacting the US...Has this changed or can this change? That looks like it is going to be a big nasty storm and if it catches people off guard who believe it is a fish strom, this will be deadly! Any insight would be great!
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3824. Walshy
Cape Cod will be in the cone shortly at this rate. Bermuda is almost out. Still, Bermuda should watch in case Bill stays on the right side of the cone.


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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