Claudette hits Florida; Ana approaches Puerto RIco; Bill becomes our first hurricane

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:10 PM GMT on August 17, 2009

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Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall at about 1:15 am EDT near the eastern end of Santa Rosa Island, just southeast of Fort Walton Beach in Florida. Claudette's top winds were around 50 mph. A Personal Weather Station in Eastpoint, FL recorded sustained winds of 49 mph, gusting to 66 mph last night. So far, the rain from Claudette has had a tough time penetrating inland (Figure 2). Heavy rains of 3 - 4 inches have been confined to a narrow strip of coast, and Claudette is unlikely to cause any major flooding. Apalachicola received just over 4 inches of rain so far from Claudette. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show that heavy rains continue along the coast in association with a main spiral band of Claudette, and these rains will gradually subside today.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of Tropical Storm Claudette as it approached landfall just southeast of Fort Walton Beach shortly after midnight on 8/17/09.

The tropics featured a rare triple threat the past two days--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This year's A, B, and C storms all got their names in just a 33 hour span. This is not a record, since in 1995, three tropical storms--Humberto, Iris, and Jerry--got their names in a 27-hour span (thanks to NOAA's Ryan Sharp for looking up this stat).


Figure 2. Total precipitation estimated by radar for Claudette, as of 3:28pm EDT 8/17/09.

Ana not dead yet
Tropical Depression Ana continues to cling to life, and is now approaching landfall in Puerto Rico. Radar animations from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar show a surface circulation just southeast of the island, with some low-level spiral banding trying to develop to the south. Recent satellite images also show a rejuvenation of the heavy thunderstorm activity near Ana's center, as the storm regroups from being nearly torn apart yesterday. Ana has already dumped up to 4 inches of rain along the north coast of Puerto Rico, according to radar-estimates.

It is unlikely that Ana will survive past today, however, since the storm will move over both Puerto Rico and the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. The high mountains of these islands should act to disrupt the relatively small and fragile circulation of Ana. None of the computer models foresee that Ana will survive passage over Hispaniola. The Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from Ana, and Haiti can expect 1 - 3 inches.


Figure 3. Total precipitation estimated by radar from Ana for Puerto Rico.

Bill becomes the first Atlantic hurricane of 2009
Hurricane Bill continues to gather strength, and is now the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. An eye has appeared on visible and infrared satellite imagery, and Bill is displaying an impressive symmetry, with plenty of low-level spiral banding.

Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range through Wednesday. With Sea Surface Temperatures only 27°C today, substantial intensification may not occur until Tuesday and Wednesday, when SSTs warm to 28 - 29°C and ocean heat content sharply increases. By Thursday, Bill is expected to leave the favorable upper-level wind environment it currently finds itself in, and moderate shear of 15 - 20 knots may limit further intensification.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows that there is a modest trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere near 50°W longitude, that Bill is currently approaching. All of the computer models except the UKMET predict that this trough will be strong enough to turn Bill more to the northwest so that the hurricane misses the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET predicts the trough will not affect Bill much, and that the hurricane will pass through or just north of the islands on Thursday. For now, the UKMET solution is being discounted, since the trough at 50W appears substantial enough on satellite imagery to be able to turn Bill more to the northwest.

A much larger trough of low pressure is expected to develop along the U.S. East Coast late this week, turning Bill even more to the northwest. Most of the models predict Bill will pass very close to Bermuda on Saturday as a result. The HWRF model predicts Bermuda will receive a direct hit at Category 4 strength. Until Bill interacts with the small trough at 50°W, it is too early to be confident of the potential threat to Bermuda. By Tuesday, we should have a much better idea of the threat. Likewise, I would like to see the UKMET model come around in line with the other models before dismissing the possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. It currently appears that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast, but that a strike on the Canadian provinces of Newfoundland or Nova Scotia is possible.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning, or possibly this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting eyesontheweather:
Visible satalite tropical floater 2 looks like 15.5 N, 30 W
For what ?
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


It sure does look that way. I squinted real hard and I think it said 1022 UTC. Does that sound right?
I see that at the top but bottom says 853 so I guess it was somewhere between 4 am and 5:30 am EST.
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Visible satalite tropical floater 2 looks like 15.5 N, 30 W
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3921. breald
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
No, I was looking at the quikscat and looks like the center is below 15n. Don't know how recent that was.


Got it thanks.
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Can models predict rapid intensefication?
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
No, I was looking at the quikscat and looks like the center is below 15n. Don't know how recent that was.


It sure does look that way. I squinted real hard and I think it said 1022 UTC. Does that sound right?
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3918. Walshy
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Thanks IKE
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3916. IKE
Quoting stormsurge39:
Goodmoring Ike, I live in Mobile Al. I saw your post about Mobile and I try to understand the terminology on weather conditions but sometimes only get pieces. Are you saying weather conditions put a possible storm in the Mobile/Pensacola area at the end of thi week?


No. I'm just saying what's left of Ana. Surge of moisture.
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Quoting breald:


oh so are you saying it is moving faster than they anticipated?
No, I was looking at the quikscat and looks like the center is below 15n. Don't know how recent that was.
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3914. breald
Quoting CycloneOz:


I've got the luxury of time on my side to make a final decision. It's great not to feel rushed about anything!

I've been able to configure my gear for air-travel nicely. I'm going to miss my portable power supplies, but for the most part, power is the only real important thing I'm leaving behind.

I cannot imagine being in Bermuda on Friday. No cell-phone. No live webcam. And I know not a soul. I'll also be on a fiercely tight budget!

I'll literally be walking the streets with a backpack and a rolling suitcase in a foreign country...homeless (unless I succumb and decide to spring for a hotel room.)


I guess if you are going to be camping, Bermuda would be a nice place to be.

Good luck with your research/filming.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:
NP I think I've read about 10 different timing of the trough dropping down already this morning. Guess that will be what it hinges on. Who knows.


It will also hinge on how far south Bill tracks. Last time I looked the bottom of his eye was on the 15 degrees north line. He's not coming very far north at all and I don't see how he can with the Bermuda High pressing down on him. Ana went west as a result of that pressure influence and I don't see why Bill should do otherwise. So, even if a strong trough does build and influences his direction, he could be too far south and west to recurve. Bill's a big boy, with lots of momentum.
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3912. breald
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
IDK what time that was but looks like the center is just below 15N.


oh so are you saying it is moving faster than they anticipated?
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Raw ADT number is over Cat 4 strength now
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Goodmoring Ike, I live in Mobile Al. I saw your post about Mobile and I try to understand the terminology on weather conditions but sometimes only get pieces. Are you saying weather conditions put a possible storm in the Mobile/Pensacola area at the end of thi week?
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Quoting breald:


The weather guys up here aren't that concerned about Bill anyway. You are better off going to Bermuda.


I've got the luxury of time on my side to make a final decision. It's great not to feel rushed about anything!

I've been able to configure my gear for air-travel nicely. I'm going to miss my portable power supplies, but for the most part, power is the only real important thing I'm leaving behind.

I cannot imagine being in Bermuda on Friday. No cell-phone. No live webcam. And I know not a soul. I'll also be on a fiercely tight budget!

I'll literally be walking the streets with a backpack and a rolling suitcase in a foreign country...homeless (unless I succumb and decide to spring for a hotel room.)
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Quoting breald:


What does that mean?
IDK what time that was but looks like the center is just below 15N.
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Hurricane Bill: Where is he heading?
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3906. breald
Quoting CycloneOz:


Yeah, alot has to play out in the next 24-36 hours. We'll know for sure by then.


The weather guys up here aren't that concerned about Bill anyway. You are better off going to Bermuda.
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Quoting stormsurge39:
Would Ana be the same name if she reforms again?


That's a really good question. My knee-jerk intuition would be yes.
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3904. IKE
Quoting stormsurge39:
Would Ana be the same name if she reforms again?


Yes.
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Quoting breald:


I think you need to change your ticket and head up to Cape Cod...LOL.


Yeah, alot has to play out in the next 24-36 hours. We'll know for sure by then.
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Would Ana be the same name if she reforms again?
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Quoting IKE:


LOL...what are you going to ask me?


The TV Show (title still secret) is going to not be like "the experience series" I made last year. They'll each be 10-minutes long and feature imagery, radar, interviews and of course the live footage we shoot.

I'll just ask you a few questions, mainly concerning your experiences in past storms, why you like Wunderground over other outlets, and maybe some fun-type questions like "What do you think of people that chase after hurricanes."

The TV show is going to be heavy on Wunderground information, including "main blog" entries...it should be a really cool show once it's in the can.

I hope to produce 12-15 10-minute shows in this 2009 series with some hope that it leads to a new series on the Discovery / Science / NGC channels.
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3900. Relix
JRRP isn't that center of circulation below 15N? =P
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Quoting IKE:


I figured it wasn't you. Thanks for posting that. Maybe I'll be wrong.


Well since they had Claudette hitting here today, I think I'll hedge my bets on you. Lol.
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3898. Relix
So where's our little Bill going after last night's freakout? =P
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3897. breald
Quoting JRRP:
hmmmmm


What does that mean?
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3896. JRRP
hmmmmm
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3895. breald
Quoting CycloneOz:


I'd love to document a spin-up of a "dead" system. That would be pretty cool.

We're still undecided about Bill. We have to wait until tomorrow for the track to be better established.

Canceling tickets no prob. But if I do that, Bill better not shift east into Bermuda on Friday/Saturday or I'll be lit!!!

Our other options are to move to the Panhandle or road-trip up the east coast. The Panhandle option would suit me better, I think...as Bill will probably hard swing and just brush against the CONUS.

If we do cancel Bermuda, and if we do cancel east coast road-trip, would you let us swing by DeFuniak? Maybe we could cop an interview from you and put you on TV this winter?


I think you need to change your ticket and head up to Cape Cod...LOL.
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Morning weather friends...
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3893. IKE
Quoting homelesswanderer:
NP Ike not my synopsis. The NHC's Was just answering about it going into the gulf.


I posted this earlier.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE COME DOWN AS CLAUDETTE HAS
MOVED INLAND AND DISSIPATED...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO
15 KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM ANA...MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE WAVE WILL TRACK
WWD AND WEAKEN AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

So that's where I was coming from, I think I've read about 10 different timing of the trough dropping down already this morning. Guess that will be what it hinges on. Who knows.


I figured it wasn't you. Thanks for posting that. Maybe I'll be wrong.
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Quoting IKE:


I disagree with that synopsis. I think what's left of Ah-nah heads to the northern GOM coast.


Long-term from Mobile,AL....

"LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE LATE IN THE WEEK AS UPPER
TROF DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY.
FORECASTERS ARE ALSO WATCHING THE REMNANTS OF ANA...NOW A TROPICAL
WAVE...PROPAGATING WESTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS SHOWS A DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE SIGNAL...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...COMING ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
UPPER RIDGE ERODES DUE TO THE APPROACH OF HEIGHT FALLS...THIS
MOISTURE LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND UP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE
OVER OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE AS WELL. WITH CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS => 30-50MB...THE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE...AND
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...SHWRS/TSTMS LOOK TO BE LIKELY RIGHT ON THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWER CHANCES WILL BE ADVERTISED DURING THE NIGHTTIME
PERIODS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH THIS WEEKEND...WITH
DEEPEST MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN
GULF. WE DO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHWRS/TSTMS IN FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL ZONES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH LOOKS TO STALL VERY NEAR OR
JUST OFF THE COAST. ALTHOUGH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WE SEE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...SHOWING NUMBERS VERY NEAR CLIMO.
HOWEVER...GRIDDED HUMIDITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER
HUMIDITIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY."
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3891. IKE
Quoting CycloneOz:


I'd love to document a spin-up of a "dead" system. That would be pretty cool.

We're still undecided about Bill. We have to wait until tomorrow for the track to be better established.

Canceling tickets no prob. But if I do that, Bill better not shift east into Bermuda on Friday/Saturday or I'll be lit!!!

Our other options are to move to the Panhandle or road-trip up the east coast. The Panhandle option would suit me better, I think...as Bill will probably hard swing and just brush against the CONUS.

If we do cancel Bermuda, and if we do cancel east coast road-trip, would you let us swing by DeFuniak? Maybe we could cop an interview from you and put you on TV this winter?


LOL...what are you going to ask me?
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NP Ike not my synopsis. The NHC's Was just answering about it going into the gulf.


I posted this earlier.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE COME DOWN AS CLAUDETTE HAS
MOVED INLAND AND DISSIPATED...WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO
15 KT RANGE. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM ANA...MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE WAVE WILL TRACK
WWD AND WEAKEN AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

So that's where I was coming from, I think I've read about 10 different timing of the trough dropping down already this morning. Guess that will be what it hinges on. Who knows.
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Quoting IKE:


Sounds about right.


I'd love to document a spin-up of a "dead" system. That would be pretty cool.

We're still undecided about Bill. We have to wait until tomorrow for the track to be better established.

Canceling tickets no prob. But if I do that, Bill better not shift east into Bermuda on Friday/Saturday or I'll be lit!!!

Our other options are to move to the Panhandle or road-trip up the east coast. The Panhandle option would suit me better, I think...as Bill will probably hard swing and just brush against the CONUS.

If we do cancel Bermuda, and if we do cancel east coast road-trip, would you let us swing by DeFuniak? Maybe we could cop an interview from you and put you on TV this winter?
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3888. WxLogic
Good morning...
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3886. IKE
Quoting CycloneOz:


Hey Ike,

We're deploying tomorrow AM. I'm thinking the 1st place to head is Key West. Maybe we'll catch a spin up in the clouds.

Agree?

Ft. Myers is also being considered.


Sounds about right.
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Quoting IKE:


I disagree with that synopsis. I think what's left of Ah-nah heads to the northern GOM coast.


Long-term from Mobile,AL....

"LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE LATE IN THE WEEK AS UPPER
TROF DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY.
FORECASTERS ARE ALSO WATCHING THE REMNANTS OF ANA...NOW A TROPICAL
WAVE...PROPAGATING WESTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS SHOWS A DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE SIGNAL...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...COMING ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
UPPER RIDGE ERODES DUE TO THE APPROACH OF HEIGHT FALLS...THIS
MOISTURE LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND UP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE
OVER OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE AS WELL. WITH CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS => 30-50MB...THE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE...AND
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...SHWRS/TSTMS LOOK TO BE LIKELY RIGHT ON THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWER CHANCES WILL BE ADVERTISED DURING THE NIGHTTIME
PERIODS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH THIS WEEKEND...WITH
DEEPEST MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN
GULF. WE DO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHWRS/TSTMS IN FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL ZONES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH LOOKS TO STALL VERY NEAR OR
JUST OFF THE COAST. ALTHOUGH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WE SEE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...SHOWING NUMBERS VERY NEAR CLIMO.
HOWEVER...GRIDDED HUMIDITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER
HUMIDITIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY."


Hey Ike,

We're deploying tomorrow AM. I'm thinking the 1st place to head is Key West. Maybe we'll catch a spin up in the clouds.

Agree?

Ft. Myers is also being considered.
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3883. breald
Question. If they are predicting a cat 4 for Bill wouldn't that leave the GFS model out as far as predicting the path?
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3882. breald
One wobble could be a huge difference as to whether it skirts the coast or Bermuda or hits it.
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3881. IKE
Quoting homelesswanderer:
SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE S
TO 25N BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE NOW OVER HISPANIOLA
AND SE BAHAMAS WILL MOVE INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS AND
EVENING AND MOVE INTO SE GULF WED THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE W THROUGH
FRI


I disagree with that synopsis. I think what's left of Ah-nah heads to the northern GOM coast.


Long-term from Mobile,AL....

"LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE LATE IN THE WEEK AS UPPER
TROF DIGS SOUTHEAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY.
FORECASTERS ARE ALSO WATCHING THE REMNANTS OF ANA...NOW A TROPICAL
WAVE...PROPAGATING WESTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS SHOWS A DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE SIGNAL...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...COMING ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE
UPPER RIDGE ERODES DUE TO THE APPROACH OF HEIGHT FALLS...THIS
MOISTURE LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND UP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
DEEP GULF MOISTURE
OVER OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE AS WELL. WITH CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS => 30-50MB...THE PRESENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE...AND
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...SHWRS/TSTMS LOOK TO BE LIKELY RIGHT ON THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWER CHANCES WILL BE ADVERTISED DURING THE NIGHTTIME
PERIODS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY EASES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH THIS WEEKEND...WITH
DEEPEST MOISTURE BEING SHUNTED INTO THE SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN
GULF. WE DO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHWRS/TSTMS IN FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL ZONES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH LOOKS TO STALL VERY NEAR OR
JUST OFF THE COAST. ALTHOUGH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WE SEE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...SHOWING NUMBERS VERY NEAR CLIMO.
HOWEVER...GRIDDED HUMIDITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER
HUMIDITIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY."
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3880. Engine2
NOGAPS too close for comfort
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Reccon reach the outer edges of Bill,

55 mph 1008 mb
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3878. Engine2
Long Island Weather Discussion from NWS
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...AND A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE LONG
TERM. HURRICANE BILL FORECAST TO BECOME A CAT 3 STORM PASSING VERY
CLOSE TO BERMUDA BY FRIDAY. THE PROBABLE SAVING GRACE FOR THE US
EAST COAST IS A DIGGING H3 JET OF 150+ KT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
CARVE OUT A SIGNIFICANT H5 TROF OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES BY THU
NIGHT. A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WILL BUILD ON FRI AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPR LVL TROF WITH PW/S IN EXCESS OF 2 IN. VERY HUMID
WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING BY AFTN AND SPREADING EWD OVERNIGHT. HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A NEARLY PURE TROPICAL AIRMASS.
POTENTIALLY VERY UNCOMFORTABLE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ON THE LOW SIDE.
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3877. IKE
Bill looks like it's definitely moving WNW, just like the NHC said it was going to start doing.

Looks headed north of the islands...
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SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE S
TO 25N BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE NOW OVER HISPANIOLA
AND SE BAHAMAS WILL MOVE INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS AND
EVENING AND MOVE INTO SE GULF WED THEN WEAKEN AND MOVE W THROUGH
FRI
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Quoting gulfcoastdweller:
good morning from a very wet and rainy Biloxi

any chance former Ana might make it in the Gulf?


John and I are going to take a look, all day tomorrow. Points of interest, Key West & Ft. Myers.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.