Ana, Bill, and Claudette--a rare early season triple threat
After an unusually slow start to the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropics exploded into action this weekend. We have a rare triple threat this afternoon--simultaneous named storms beginning with the letters A, B, and C. The last time this occurred was in the slow-starting 1984 hurricane season, when Tropical Storms Arthur, Bertha, and Cesar were all active on September 1. This afternoon, the Hurricane Hunters confirmed than Tropical Storm Claudette had formed in the Gulf of Mexico. Radar animations out of the Florida Panhandle show a small but well-organized tropical storm with plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity, and improving low-level spiral banding. Claudette has built an eyewall that is 1/3 complete on the east side of the center. Some moderate wind shear from upper-level southwesterly winds is keeping Claudette from forming much heavy thunderstorm activity on its west side. Most of the rain is on the right side of the storm, and regions to the left of where Claudette comes ashore will get only a maximum of 1 - 2 inches of rain. Satellite loops show an area of intense thunderstorms with cold cloud tops continuing to expand near the storm's center.
Figure 1. Current short-range radar out of the Florida Panhandle.
Claudette developed literally overnight, and has enough time over water to be a 60 - 65 mph tropical storm by the time it makes landfall tonight along the Florida Panhandle. Claudette reminds me of 2007's Hurricane Humberto, which became a hurricane just 24 hours after first appearing as a tropical depression. By the time Claudette makes landfall, it will have been in existence just 18 hours since the first advisory. This is not enough time to strengthen into a hurricane. If Claudette had had another twelve hours over the 30°C waters of the Gulf of Mexico, it would likely have been a hurricane. Given that the storm is so small, storm surge flooding should not exceed 3 - 5 feet, and will not be the major hazard from Claudette. Inland flooding from heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches is likely to be the main threat from the storm.
Ana near death
The Hurricane Hunters are in Tropical Storm Ana, and have found that the storm is very disorganized, and may not survive another day. Dry air continues to plague the storm, thanks to the large area of Saharan air the storm is embedded in. Ana's very rapid forward motion of 20 - 25 mph has stretched out the storm's circulation from circular to elliptical. This non-circular flow around the center has made the heavy thunderstorm activity less organized, and it may be difficult for the storm to hold together much longer. The outer rain showers from Ana are now on radar out of Martinique.
Nearly all of the computer models forecast Ana will dissipate over the next two days. If there is anything left of the storm by the time it encounters the rugged terrain of Hispaniola, that should finish Ana off. At this time, it does not appear that Ana will be moist enough to cause a major flooding disaster on Hispaniola.
Tropical Storm Bill continues strengthening
Tropical Storm Bill continues to gather strength in the middle Atlantic Ocean, and appears poised to become a major Cape Verdes-type hurricane later this week. Water vapor satellite loops show that Bill has developed a core region of heavy thunderstorms that should be fairly impervious to the dry Saharan air to its northwest, and the storm should be able to start building an eyewall tonight.
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low range for the next three days. With Sea Surface Temperatures at 27.5°C, and ocean heat content sharply increasing 2 - 3 days from now, Bill should be able to intensify to a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane by Wednesday. At that time, some increasing shear may limit further intensification.
The big news is that our most reliable computer model from last year--the ECMWF model--appears to have made the right call yesterday, forecasting that a major trough of low pressure would develop along the U.S. East Coast, turning Bill more to the north. All of the other models have now jumped on the ECMWF bandwagon, forecasting that Bill will pass well north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET model, which was resisting forecasting the northward turn, has now joined the other models in its latest 12Z run. The main drama with Bill this week will be to see how close it passes to Bermuda. Several models have Bill passing within 200 miles of Bermuda on Saturday. It is too early to be confident that Bill will miss the U.S. East Coast.
I'll have an update Monday.
Jeff Masters
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just west of Panama City
Yep- mine too- both of them.
Not really a "little" trough
When do the HH fly into Bill?
2009AUG17 001500
3.7 991.2/ +0.0 / 59.0 3.6 3.4 3.4 NO LIMIT ON
Thank you!
Wouldn't reach much into that. ADT does that all the time.
Damn ADT has the wrong area for the center. Someone needs to fix it.
Eh anyone have links to the models, and if they can post an image, it would be great
possible, I dont think it will be upgraded 2night tho
Just checked the latest GFS/GFDL/HWRF and they all recurve it still. I see nothing major to suggest any major model shifts.
Looks like it's headed right towards Destin or Miramar Beach...getting stronger on the radar signature...might see 60mph on the 10pm advisory.
for wish storm???
We forgot to pay the babysitter... lol!
Latest on Dvorak is above, probably not going to reach hurricane status tonight, imho.
P, that is a hilarious pic. LOL
Uhh.. Umm.. I thought that was your job? :) jk.
How you doing this year Extreme. Still enjoy reading your posts. I said the same thing very early this morning and was taken to task but what do I care. I live in a place also that will never have a hurricane. Just think that the day to day weather patterns change, now that's one thing everyone can be sure of.
are they 2 pm though?
Maximum winds and surge should impact the towns of:
Dune Allen Beach
Blue Mountain Beach
Grayton Beach
Seagrove Beach
Rosemary Beach
Down to the Walton/ Washington county line
These locations can expect sustained winds of 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph with a water rise of 3-5 feet.
Think about it. lol
ADT for Ana is near 1
ADT for Claudette is near 2.2
ADT for Bill is near 4.0.
Thankie P451,Thanx for the Images.
Sometimes the not so Obvious ULL,can demand some attention,as the SSTS are threshold and persistence pays off for the System sometimes.
Claudette shows that well.
later this week probably around 45W.
I know I'm speaking of the total storm, not just where the hurricane or storm winds are, that area is about 300-400miles across imo.
Thank you. The Dvorak would need to be at T5 or greater? Am I correct?
ummmmm, they have the models on the tropical page on this site.
all you have to do is click on computer models by the storm advisory.
so tomorrow?
I'm doing good. Yeah I also live in a hurricane free zone, which is nice, but also keeps me more objective in the "wishcasting landfalls" department as I'd have no reason to.
Exactly 4.0
Needs to be T4.0 for a cane. T5.0 is a cat 2 with 90 knots.
Could be a nasty night/morning for Ike. Just north of there.
those aren't the lastest ones the latest ones are 8pm
I don't see a reason why they'd shift back to the west. If anything, they shift even more north and east. It can't avoid the trof.
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