Ana, Bill,--and Claudette?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 PM GMT on August 16, 2009

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After one of the slowest starts to hurricane season in the past twenty years, the hurricane season of 2009 has exploded with activity over the past 48 hours. This morning, Tropical Depression Four joined Ana and Bill in the Atlantic, and appears poised to become Tropical Storm Claudette later today. Indeed, this may already be Claudette, as morning's QuickSCAT pass showed top winds of 45 mph. NEXRAD radar animations out of Tallahassee, FL, show a small but well-organized tropical cyclone with plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity, and improving low-level spiral banding. Satellite loops show an area of intense thunderstorms with cold cloud tops expanding near the storm's center.


Figure 1. Current long-range radar out of Tallahassee, FL.

It's pretty amazing (and a little unnerving) how quickly this storm sprang up. TD 4 developed literally overnight, and has the potential to be a strong tropical storm by the time it makes landfall tonight along the Florida Peninsula. TD 4 reminds me of 2007's Hurricane Humberto, which became a hurricane just 24 hours after first appearing as a tropical depression. I don't think TD 4 has time to reach hurricane strength, since wind shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model was moderate, 10 - 15 knots, but it does have time to strengthen into a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm before landfall. Given that the storm is so small, storm surge flooding should not exceed 3 -5 feet, and will not be the major hazard from TD 4; inland flooding from heavy rain of 3 - 6 inches is likely to be the main threat from the storm.

Tropical Storm Ana continues to struggle
Tropical Storm Ana continues to struggle. Dry air continues to plague the storm, thanks to the large area of Saharan air the storm is embedded in. Ana's heavy thunderstorms are limited to just one small spot near the center. Wind shear appears to have lessened some, though, since yesterday. Thunderstorms were not able to form at all near the center yesterday, since strong wind shear tends to blow a storm's heavy thunderstorms to one side of the storm, exposing the low-level center to view. With heavy thunderstorms building near the center this morning, shear appears to be less of a problem for the storm. Top winds seen by this morning's QuikSCAT pass were about 35 mph. The outer rain showers from Ana should appear on radar out of Martinique today.

Shear is low (5 - 10 knots), and is forecast to remain low for the next two days. SSTs are warm, 28°C, and will warm further over the next two days. However, there is so much dry air around Ana that significant strengthening appears unlikely. Nearly all of the models predict Ana will dissipate sometime in the next three days, though the HWRF and GFDL predict that this will happen because Ana will move over the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. Ana is likely not strong enough to survive an encounter with the big island that the Dominican Republic and Haiti share. At this time, it does not appear that Ana will be moist enough to cause a major flooding disaster on Hispaniola.


Figure 2. Water vapor image from this morning showing the large area of dry, Saharan air surrounding Ana, and lying to the northwest of Tropical Storm Bill. Image credit: NOAA/SSD

Tropical Storm Bill gathers strength
Tropical Storm Bill is gathering strength in the middle Atlantic Ocean, and appears poised to become a powerful Cape Verdes-type hurricane later this week. QuikSCAT data from this morning shows a large circulation with top winds of 35 - 40 mph. Water vapor imagery (Figure 2) shows that there is some dry air to the northwest of Bill, and this dry air is being drawn into Bill's center, slowing intensification. It will likely take another day before Bill can moisten the atmosphere enough to ward off the dry air, and allow more significant intensification.

Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 27.5°C, and will remain in the 27.5 - 28°C range the next four days, then warm substantially as the storm nears the Lesser Antilles Islands. The combination of low wind shear and sufficiently warm SSTs should allow Bill to intensify steadily to hurricane strength by Wednesday.

The big news is that our most reliable computer model from last year--the ECMWF model--appears to have made the right call yesterday, forecasting that a major trough of low pressure would develop along the U.S. East Coast, turning Bill more to the north. All of the other models--with the notable exception of the UKMET model--have now jumped on the ECMWF bandwagon, forecasting that Bill will pass well north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET has Bill hitting the islands, but is being discounted since it is an outlier. It currently appears that the trough approaching the U.S. East Coast will be strong enough to recurve Bill before it reaches the U.S., though it is too early to be confident of this. Several of the longer range models show Bill passing near Bermuda or Nova Scotia, Canada.

I'll have an update later today.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting extreme236:
AL, 03, 2009081612, , BEST, 0, 119N, 377W, 50, 997, TS


If it is 50MPH now, then expect it to start consolidating rapidly.
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Quoting IKE:


System isn't going to hit the east-coast of the USA. Models are trending more and more to the east.


But Bermuda may get hit with Bill.
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.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Bill

AL, 03, 2009081612, , BEST, 0, 119N, 377W, 50, 997, TS

Ana

AL, 02, 2009081612, , BEST, 0, 146N, 548W, 35, 1005, TS
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
MandyFSU: Thats cool, yeah thats my dream school that I always wanted to go to.
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Quoting futuremet:
This will be Claudette at 11



wow! Look at the COC too, really tightening up.
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672
Quoting CaptainTomato:


Anyone who has to tout their own self, is clearly not worth the ink they write with. I didn't even notice your writing so I can't speak for the veracity of what you said - however, if you really had any value, others would say it for you. If you were right, remember , even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.

There are way too many egotistical dopes on here - completely diminishing the value of anything said on this site. personally, my advice is to listen to what you hear on here, look at the data yourself and make up your own mind. Don't bother trying to convince others how smart you are because that only PROVES your lack of intelligence.

LOL! couldnt have said it better myself
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Is it unlikely that Ana will go through the lesser antilles and stay far enough south that it goes between jamaica and cuba?
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My prediction:
TD 4 becomes Claudette at 11am or 5pm (winds 35-55mph)

TS Ana either a TS at 11am or a TD (winds 35-40mph)

TS Bill still a TS (with winds between 45-55mph)
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Quoting hahaguy:


That's it you're gone.

Hes gone from me too. seriously wtf was that?
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115. IKE
Quoting tharpgomex:
good morning Ike.... looks like a interesting day and evening for us guys!


Yup...looks like TD4 may be moving NW. Following it on radar.....
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i am charging my camera, i want to be chosen for a weather warrior picture and get a free waking up with whats his name alarm clock. dr masters would probably get rich if he sold a "waking up with Dr. Masters" alarm clock! i would buy one!
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Another convective blow up on Ana.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


looks just like a big mess o' clouds ... where is the circulation?


Use radar
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Quoting leftovers:
i thought the gulf system a few days ago would move wnw wrong there

Coulds slow and go into Pensacola.
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Quoting mobilegirl81:

What are the chances this thing could slow down and skim the coast line westward?


Yes, it could, but should make landfall within 36hrs

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Quoting hurricanelover236:
All i can say is once again, i was rioght. Thats why people on here should take my advice. ....


Anyone who has to tout their own self, is clearly not worth the ink they write with. I didn't even notice your writing so I can't speak for the veracity of what you said - however, if you really had any value, others would say it for you. If you were right, remember , even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.

There are way too many egotistical dopes on here - completely diminishing the value of anything said on this site. personally, my advice is to listen to what you hear on here, look at the data yourself and make up your own mind. Don't bother trying to convince others how smart you are because that only PROVES your lack of intelligence.
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Quoting mobilegirl81:

What are the chances this thing could slow down and skim the coast line westward?

Mobile is fine.
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Just think, Ana could make it into the Gulf and have lots of time to develope. That is an interesting possiblity now...

Again, she has to hold herself together, etc... But apparently, she could be very disorganized and still get herself together for rapid intensification in the gulf.

Of course, the models will shift each run throughout the next couple of days. Hopefully Bill is bonafide Fish/Ship storm by then.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10765
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


ANA

Bill

TD4 (Claudette)
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Quoting HurricaneKyle:
Well with the GOMEX the way it is I shouldn't be surprised with the extremely rapid formation of TD4/Claudette.


That wave developing shouldn't suprise anyone that was paying attention to it over that last few days.

TD4 (as a wave) had a nice circulation going all day yesterday. It also made for a nasty day in the keys.
Yesterday, one of our local mets showed a tropical future scan prediction model that showed the wave developing exactly as it did over the Eastern Gulf.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 9234
Quoting hurricanelover236:
All i can say is once again, i was rioght. Thats why people on here should take my advice. Everyone was getting hyped up about 2 potential florida hits and now like I said they are safe from both of these systems. I predicted Ana would stay weak and hit the islands. And i also predicted Bill would turn out to sea and im right on target. Thats why im scarcely wrong. Everyone was saying proof please when i made my predictions and well, now you have it. Bye Ana and bill.
I must agree. You are probably one of the best 11-year-old forecasters on here.
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Looks like what is soon to be TS Claudette will make landfall around Saint George Island....Apalachicola
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Quoting MandyFSU:


I'm not sure about landfall but I think conditions will start going downhill by about 2pm EDT.


things already have that "tropical" feel, blustery wind, racing puffy clouds, feels humid and the breeze is warm. also when i gave my horses turnout they were all froggy.
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Quoting cajunkid:
Didn't NBC buy TWC?


Yes...GE did.
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:
What the heck?? The first time I turned on TWC in months and they have the cheesiest commercials.

Storm master G??? And the Jim Cantore comercial...LOL.

TWC is a joke.

The moring show is a huge joke.
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Quoting mobilegirl81:

What are the chances this thing could slow down and skim the coast line westward?


None
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ADT says 04L is now 2.5 in CI.
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Didn't NBC buy TWC?
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
G'morning all! Thanks for the update, Dr. Masters. What a dissapointment, the dead season continues it would seem. None of these three crappy systems presently pose a significant threat to anyone, nor will they ever, probably. After these three pests are gone, it would appear as if the basin is going to re-commence another dead spell. But talk about not being surprised, right y'all? This being a typical and a classical El Nino Hurricane Season. Do not anticipate much in September, that's for damn sure, especially since we'll be having a major downward subsedence episode in the MJO. Have a terrific day, gang. Cheers, :).


?
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weatherwiz: I graduated from FSU in 2002 and stayed here. I love Tally. I hope you do too. FSU is a lot of fun- though gameday can get a little crazy LOL

twh: DEFINITELY do not want that kind of rain. Just a couple inches over the course of the evening. (I'm not picky or anything)
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Quoting futuremet:
This will be Claudette at 11


What are the chances this thing could slow down and skim the coast line westward?
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What the heck?? The first time I turned on TWC in months and they have the cheesiest commercials.

Storm master G??? And the Jim Cantore comercial...LOL.

TWC is a joke.
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BTW - Kudos to those who have been watching what became TD4 for a few days now. Nicely done, y'all

A buoy a little more south and east of 42036 again shows a decrease in SST's as TD4 passed by. Any significance? I have no idea how temporary the decrease is - will be interesting to watch, though.

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post 51 sportsguy03

can u please refrain from quoting the trolls (aka hurricanelover236). i have him on ignore because all he was doing last night was posting junk to get responces. i see he is already starting up this morning. flag his post, put him on ignore, and reading the blog will be must more pleasant.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 551
Still should keep an eye on Bill and Ana.
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86. CJ5
Quoting hurricanelover236:
All i can say is once again, i was rioght. Thats why people on here should take my advice. Everyone was getting hyped up about 2 potential florida hits and now like I said they are safe from both of these systems.


No one can say FL is save from Bill at this point and to a lesser degree Ana, so you are not right yet.

I predicted Ana would stay weak and hit the islands.


Only time will tell if you are right here.

And i also predicted Bill would turn out to sea and im right on target.


That has not happened yet.

Thats why im scarcely wrong. Everyone was saying proof please when i made my predictions and well, now you have it. Bye Ana and bill.


Very presumtious and false.
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This will be Claudette at 11

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morning all, i still think the models are too agressive in taking these storms to the north , high is not allowing it and that ull will keep them going west for atleast another 24 hrs, anna will make it to the gom as a minimal TS and bill will traverse eastern caribbean then curve to north towards florida east coast of cuba and into the keys as a cat 3 thats my forcast
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Quoting MandyFSU:
weatherwiz: They have us under a flood watch here in Tally. I'm not worried about my house flooding, but those near the river may have problems (like with Fay last year) Mercifully, TD4 is moving a might faster than Fay was so that's good news. I'm excited for a rainy, breezy afternoon. That's the worst I hope for!


Yeah, Im actually moving up there next week, I will be starting at FSU. So hopefully the weather is good. We may have to worry about Ana as it could be in the Gulf but thats still a week away.
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good morning Ike.... looks like a interesting day and evening for us guys!
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Quoting MandyFSU:
twhcracker: My thinking as well. I'm sure those bands that are wrapping could easily have some 50mph gusts in them- and all it takes is a few of those with a few inches of rain to bring down trees. That's my worry- that we'll be getting some nasty bands.

I see how the high building in could move TD4 on a more westerly path but if it stays on it's present course then Tally is in line for some good rain and gusts.


i am not worried about much except that it will turn into whatever that demon was last year, francis? the one that dumped 12 inches of rain in an hour. thats what i dont want, a lot of rain is great. 100 year flood is not so great.i dont want my road to wash out again.
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Quoting twhcracker:
does anyone know what time it could come ashore on the panhandle? I want to get my horses up and squared away by then.


I'm not sure about landfall but I think conditions will start going downhill by about 2pm EDT.
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Dry air...fast forward speed.

SICK
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.
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Video of what is now TD #4 as it moved through the lower FL Keys yesterday. See bottom of page.
Tropical Squalls on Cudjoe Key, FL
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Quoting 305st0rm:
what happened to ANA


Dry air...fast forward speed.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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