Ana, Bill,--and Claudette?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:52 PM GMT on August 16, 2009

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After one of the slowest starts to hurricane season in the past twenty years, the hurricane season of 2009 has exploded with activity over the past 48 hours. This morning, Tropical Depression Four joined Ana and Bill in the Atlantic, and appears poised to become Tropical Storm Claudette later today. Indeed, this may already be Claudette, as morning's QuickSCAT pass showed top winds of 45 mph. NEXRAD radar animations out of Tallahassee, FL, show a small but well-organized tropical cyclone with plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity, and improving low-level spiral banding. Satellite loops show an area of intense thunderstorms with cold cloud tops expanding near the storm's center.


Figure 1. Current long-range radar out of Tallahassee, FL.

It's pretty amazing (and a little unnerving) how quickly this storm sprang up. TD 4 developed literally overnight, and has the potential to be a strong tropical storm by the time it makes landfall tonight along the Florida Peninsula. TD 4 reminds me of 2007's Hurricane Humberto, which became a hurricane just 24 hours after first appearing as a tropical depression. I don't think TD 4 has time to reach hurricane strength, since wind shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model was moderate, 10 - 15 knots, but it does have time to strengthen into a 50 - 60 mph tropical storm before landfall. Given that the storm is so small, storm surge flooding should not exceed 3 -5 feet, and will not be the major hazard from TD 4; inland flooding from heavy rain of 3 - 6 inches is likely to be the main threat from the storm.

Tropical Storm Ana continues to struggle
Tropical Storm Ana continues to struggle. Dry air continues to plague the storm, thanks to the large area of Saharan air the storm is embedded in. Ana's heavy thunderstorms are limited to just one small spot near the center. Wind shear appears to have lessened some, though, since yesterday. Thunderstorms were not able to form at all near the center yesterday, since strong wind shear tends to blow a storm's heavy thunderstorms to one side of the storm, exposing the low-level center to view. With heavy thunderstorms building near the center this morning, shear appears to be less of a problem for the storm. Top winds seen by this morning's QuikSCAT pass were about 35 mph. The outer rain showers from Ana should appear on radar out of Martinique today.

Shear is low (5 - 10 knots), and is forecast to remain low for the next two days. SSTs are warm, 28°C, and will warm further over the next two days. However, there is so much dry air around Ana that significant strengthening appears unlikely. Nearly all of the models predict Ana will dissipate sometime in the next three days, though the HWRF and GFDL predict that this will happen because Ana will move over the rugged terrain of Hispaniola. Ana is likely not strong enough to survive an encounter with the big island that the Dominican Republic and Haiti share. At this time, it does not appear that Ana will be moist enough to cause a major flooding disaster on Hispaniola.


Figure 2. Water vapor image from this morning showing the large area of dry, Saharan air surrounding Ana, and lying to the northwest of Tropical Storm Bill. Image credit: NOAA/SSD

Tropical Storm Bill gathers strength
Tropical Storm Bill is gathering strength in the middle Atlantic Ocean, and appears poised to become a powerful Cape Verdes-type hurricane later this week. QuikSCAT data from this morning shows a large circulation with top winds of 35 - 40 mph. Water vapor imagery (Figure 2) shows that there is some dry air to the northwest of Bill, and this dry air is being drawn into Bill's center, slowing intensification. It will likely take another day before Bill can moisten the atmosphere enough to ward off the dry air, and allow more significant intensification.

Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, for the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 27.5°C, and will remain in the 27.5 - 28°C range the next four days, then warm substantially as the storm nears the Lesser Antilles Islands. The combination of low wind shear and sufficiently warm SSTs should allow Bill to intensify steadily to hurricane strength by Wednesday.

The big news is that our most reliable computer model from last year--the ECMWF model--appears to have made the right call yesterday, forecasting that a major trough of low pressure would develop along the U.S. East Coast, turning Bill more to the north. All of the other models--with the notable exception of the UKMET model--have now jumped on the ECMWF bandwagon, forecasting that Bill will pass well north of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The UKMET has Bill hitting the islands, but is being discounted since it is an outlier. It currently appears that the trough approaching the U.S. East Coast will be strong enough to recurve Bill before it reaches the U.S., though it is too early to be confident of this. Several of the longer range models show Bill passing near Bermuda or Nova Scotia, Canada.

I'll have an update later today.

Jeff Masters

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Well; gonna clear out a few items in case we get some rain in Tally from TD4 and will be back later to keep Yall posted on conditions here. If it keeps tracking NW, the Big Bend might just get a few wind gusts and some rain but from the looks of the Radar, the rest of the Panhandle to Mobile is in for a good soaking later today.....WW
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Quoting ssmate:

Have you ever noticed that Drak and WS Never post at the exact same time?? very interesting.


NO...lets not start this game.
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Quoting snotly:


as far as I know, they can ban by mac address... but then you could always just buy another network card... if it's bad enough they can inspect the route and determine the provider, they can then contact the provider, usually this happens for criminal offenses. if a site has gone as far as to contact the provider, they will usually will shut down the entire blog.


Log into your router someday.. the software is there in any decent router to spoof your mac address.

The ignore button is much easier..
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Thankfully its all bark no bite so far this season. A few weak td's which could be rain producers and mighty bill should stay out to sea.

Adrian
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Quoting ssmate:

Have you ever noticed that Drak and WS Never post at the exact same time?? very interesting.


Uncalled for.. Drak knows the answers to the questions.
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Quoting CrazyDuke:
Well, I can't help but thinking TD4 might be somewhat of a blessing in disguise. It will help dissipate some of that excess heat in the gulf.


I doubt that. TD4 is in an area of high SSTs, but of very low oceanic heat content. Any effect will be very short term. Plus it's a small storm.
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Quoting Relix:


I don't wanna be obnoxious by quoting you but this is to what you referred of a possible track change right? Sorry I am in a bit of a hyper mood tracking all these systems. =P


Its just showing the Bill will continue W/WNW for the next day. It also shows how Ana (who's moving west at 23 MPH!! is gonna have a tough time turning WNW and NW to hit Hispaniola.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


You Cannot "IP" ban someone.. peoples "IP's" change all the time. Very few people have a static IP address.. The IP you ban today.. could be someone completely different a few hours later.


as far as I know, they can ban by mac address... but then you could always just buy another network card... if it's bad enough they can inspect the route and determine the provider, they can then contact the provider, usually this happens for criminal offenses. if a site has gone as far as to contact the provider, they will usually will shut down the entire blog.
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Quoting mobilegirl81:
Just looked at the water vapor, and looks like a high is beginning to press down on Claudette(TD2)
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Quoting divdog:


baaaaad call
with pressure at 1011, and showing no signs of any fast drops, you tell me how this is becoming a TS.
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Quoting SBG:


It seems like more than 1 person uses that account. Last yaer JFV seemed to root for a storm to hit him directly. This year mosts of Weather Student's posts seem to be truly afraid of one hitting. Now this latest item is back to rooting for storms.

Also, he normally asks endless questions that seem to come from someone who knows less about meteorolgy than me, and I know nothing and just come on here for info because I am an insurance agent and like to be informed. However, yesterday he had a post that sounded like something one of the truly knowledgable people on here would say.

It has to be multiple people, or someone who (NO JOKE) has multiple personality disorder.

Have you ever noticed that Drak and WS Never post at the exact same time?? very interesting.
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Bill is looking really nice this morning. VERY prominent banding features and tightly wrapping around the center. Wouldn't be surprised to see a hurricane by the end of today if the convection holds up.
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Gotta run BBL tonite.......Day has Plans..NO FIGHTING KIDS!
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261. eye
CAN BLOGGERS REFRAME FROM POSTING HUGE HUGE GRAPICS (ANIMATED ONES ESPECIALLY). MY COMPUTER FROZE BECAUSE OF SOME GRAPHICS SOMEONE POSTED. NOT ALL OF US HAVE SUPER COMPUTERS THAT CAN HANDLE IT. PLEASE POST AS A LINK. I HAD TO HARD RESET MY COMPUTER BECAUSE OF THAT. I BELIEVE IT WAS DCOASTER
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Quoting IKE:


I'm not 100% sure. It looks to almost be moving parallel to the NW FL. coast. I can't be 100% sure so far.


as of right now...you are right sir, td 4 is paralleling the coast...i think landfall from panama city to Apalachicola is the best bet with the furthest west being fort Walton beach...personally i don't see it going that far west, but things can change quickly...
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258. Relix
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Bill should continue W/WNW today.

990-990 mb range (Bill is at 996 mb)
970-989 mb range


I don't wanna be obnoxious by quoting you but this is to what you referred of a possible track change right? Sorry I am in a bit of a hyper mood tracking all these systems. =P
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Good morning all.

I just love watching what Mother Nature can do.

Hopefully TD4/Claudette? is simply a rainmaker with no troubles. I know Texas could use something like that coming in- just NOTHING worse.
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I think Miami, FL (again) is going to dodge these storms... I am just so sick of these news stations always telling us to prepare when the models are already showing it curving up... It really is difficult to shift around all your plans around their forecasts... Now I make my plans around the models on wunderground! I think again, we aren't going to be lucky this year :)
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Weather changes, models shift. We will probably go back and forth with Bill for the next week. The important thing is to never let your guard down.


I agree and worry when people write off storms prematurely. Omar was not really a concern for anyone here and then just its feeder bands caused widespread flooding as it passed well north of us.
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What's this speak of a Claudette? Yesterday, we weren't even allowed to speak of such blob without a scoff, chuckle, or a "sky is falling" response. Kudos to those in the panhandle that kept a watchful eye. I hope you are prepared for some power outages or potential inland flooding. My prayers are with you this evening during this first tropical cyclone to hit in 2009.
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Quoting P451:


It looked amazing yesterday and now it's just a remnant mess.

I'm not saying it won't flare back up I'm merely saying the convection we saw yesterday on the coast of Africa was intense and now there's none to be found.

So, yeah, yesterday's convection went POOF.

It wasn't a declaration on the long term life of the wave.


That's normal, even Bill looked much bigger than he is atm
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Bill should continue W/WNW today.

990-990 mb range (Bill is at 996 mb)
970-989 mb range
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251. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Why don't you ban troublemakers by IP or somehow limit people by IP?


The only solution is to place him on ignore.


Thanks.

That's what I did yesterday...I didn't want to but couldn't take it anymore.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting MandyFSU:
twhcracker: My thinking as well. I'm sure those bands that are wrapping could easily have some 50mph gusts in them- and all it takes is a few of those with a few inches of rain to bring down trees. That's my worry- that we'll be getting some nasty bands.

I see how the high building in could move TD4 on a more westerly path but if it stays on it's present course then Tally is in line for some good rain and gusts.


Likely heading for Apalachicola or just west of there. Either way, winds shouldn't be a big issue but the heavy rainfall will be. Winds over tropical storm strength will be felt in the rainbands but according to the NHC, these winds are mixing down to the surface yet... so we shall see. Has another 4 hours or so before it starts to approach the coast.
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Quoting leftovers:
ana seems to be splitting in two the ne side should move wnw while the south side west
Almost giving the appearance she is opening back up into a wave.
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248. Relix
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Weather changes, models shift. We will probably go back and forth with Bill for the next week. The important thing is to never let your guard down.


Yeah I perfectly understand that, nature is completely unpredictable. The models are all in such agreement though.. that is easy to drop your guard. We'll see how it goes. I am checking on Ana now... in my opinion she is moving sightly north of her forecast points which would wring it closer to PR.
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000
WTNT62 KNHC 161455
TCUAT2
TROPICAL STORM ANA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
GUADELOUPE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMEY. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Just looked at the water vapor, and looks like a high is beginning to press down on Claudette(TD2)
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Isn't it around time bermuda gets another hurricane I heard somewhere it's once every three years the last one being Florence.
Anyway I don't think Ana will make a landfall in Hispaniola there is still a southerly trend and she seems to weak to be picked up by the trough
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Wow! we have 04L in the Gulf which could become Claudette at 2PM, Ana looks to be dying with the convection down and the path has it over all islands killing it. And then Bill still needs to be watched even though I disagree with NHC cone, they have it making a recurve(if it does) too early:

04L:


ANA:


BILL:
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Quoting keywestbrat:

I was also wondering if he threw us a curve ball with his sex change to tropicalamanda LOL


dude!!! get a life!!!
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Quoting Relix:
@ WBP: Isn't Bill already north of its forecast points? I think it will be very hard for it to follow that southern track unless something happens and he amgically moves west for a few hours soon.


Weather changes, models shift. We will probably go back and forth with Bill for the next week. The important thing is to never let your guard down.
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Hi Everyone
The latest NHC Discusssion about Ana:

000
WTNT42 KNHC 161443
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009

ANA CONTINUES TO RACE WESTWARD...WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A 0950 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SOME
BELIEVABLE 30 KT WINDS...AND ASSUMING WINDS ARE HIGHER IN THE
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER THE INTENSITY IS HELD GENEROUSLY AT
35 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE WILL BE
INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD HELP
DETERMINE IF ANA IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM.

THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND AHEAD OF ANA IS RATHER DRY AND DOMINATED BY
SUBSIDENCE...AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RADIOSONDE
DATA FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST THAT ANA WILL INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE NEGATIVE FACTORS DISCUSSED ABOVE...ONLY
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN THROUGH 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT
TIME...THE INTENSITY OF ANA WILL BE DICTATED PRIMARILY BY ITS
INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA AND CUBA...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST
ACCOUNTS FOR THIS WITH WEAKENING.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...
SHOWING A QUICK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE
FIRST 3 OR 4 DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BEYOND THAT TIME THERE
IS A SPLIT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WITH THE ECMWF AND HWRF SHOWING
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED
TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAY 5 AND SHOWS A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF ANA...TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. IF AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE
FINDS ANA IS A TROPICAL STORM...WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 14.8N 55.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 15.2N 58.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 16.1N 62.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 17.1N 66.7W 40 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 18.3N 70.7W 45 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 21.0N 77.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 20/1200Z 23.5N 83.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 25.5N 85.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS

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240. SBG
Quoting futuremet:


He should be. He ask the same questions repeatedly: "what does this mean for south FL ""Met"" ""Drakoen"" ""Adrian"" "Does this pose a threat to south FL" "Does this mean South FL will get hit"


It seems like more than 1 person uses that account. Last yaer JFV seemed to root for a storm to hit him directly. This year mosts of Weather Student's posts seem to be truly afraid of one hitting. Now this latest item is back to rooting for storms.

Also, he normally asks endless questions that seem to come from someone who knows less about meteorolgy than me, and I know nothing and just come on here for info because I am an insurance agent and like to be informed. However, yesterday he had a post that sounded like something one of the truly knowledgable people on here would say.

It has to be multiple people, or someone who (NO JOKE) has multiple personality disorder.
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Quoting mobilegirl81:

The GFS had it lingering along the coast, eventually moving into Mississippi.
Ohh, I'm not saying that can't or won't happen. It just seems stormno puts everything into absolutes. Which we all know you cannot do here. I think there may be a chance of it glancing the coast but not betting on it.
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For the ones that said Southern MS would get nothing out of TD4 let me tell you what I see outside. I see skies that make it look almost like it is midnight and as if we are about to be rained on all day long. Nice tropical breeze out there as well. The chill of the tropical air is here and eventhough we all know this wont be much of a storm when it comes on shore, you still get this erie feeling when you look outside.
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Quoting Chicklit:
What are the coordinates of TD4s COC?
Good Morning Chicklit,
According to NOAA Tropical Position Page:
1145 UTC 28.2N 84.2W T2.0/2.0

Addition: 1145UTC = 7:45am Eastern
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Link

This morning's integration of the 15 km resolution Canadian GEM regional brings TD 4 at weak TS strength (1010 mb) onshore near Pensacola this evening.
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Quoting Giga2001:

Morning TS - you get any sleep?


Yep its just that time of year....busy times coming!
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Quoting hunkerdown:
Thats the 5 am forecast, I would be highly surprised if the new forecast even took it to TS strength. Except for being a rain feature, not overly impressive and don;t see it improving. Pressures are still high so I don't see where all of the "----casting" is coming from.


baaaaad call
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231. Relix
@ WBP: Isn't Bill already north of its forecast points? I think it will be very hard for it to follow that southern track unless something happens and he amgically moves west for a few hours soon.
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ANA
11AMAST
~430 ESE of the Leeward Islands
~14.8N
~55.8W
~40mph
~W@23 mph
~1005mb.



BILL
11AM AST
~1555 E Lesser Antillies
~12.1N
~38.4W
~60mph
~WNW @ 16mph
~997mb.



TD 4
11AM AST
~200mi. E of Pensecola, Florida
~28.7N
~89.6W
~35mph
~NW @ 14mph
~1011mb.
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Hi Everyone,
I have been on this blog for almost 2 years and have learned a lot. One thing that I have learned is the more I learn, the more I need to learn. I had lived in Florida(between Daytona and Orlando)for 3 years when Charley hit. I had no idea what to expect. I found out fast as a 60 ft Pine came crashing through our house. I was terrified. Then came Francis and Jeanne. Since then I have tried to become educated and always prepared. The people that love the destruction and death are usually ones that have no idea what it is like to be in a hurricane or the aftermath.
Thank you to all of you that bring knowledge and peace to a bad situation. And, for the others, go play somewhere else.
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Quoting futuremet:


He should be. He ask the same questions repeatedly: "what does this mean for south FL ""Met"" ""Drakoen"" ""Adrian"" "Does this pose a threat to south FL" "Does this mean South FL will get hit"


You Cannot "IP" ban someone.. peoples "IP's" change all the time. Very few people have a static IP address.. The IP you ban today.. could be someone completely different a few hours later.
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Quoting IKE:


Why can't he be IP banned?


Why don't you ban troublemakers by IP or somehow limit people by IP?


The only solution is to place him on ignore.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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