Ana and TD 3 take aim at the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:17 PM GMT on August 15, 2009

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Tropical Storm Ana was born this morning, when the remnants of Tropical Depression Two made a comeback and organized into the first tropical storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Ana is the latest first named storm of the season since Hurricane Andrew got its name on August 17, 1992. The two storms have some similarities, as Andrew formed in the same part of the ocean, and also struggled in its early days with high wind shear and dry air. Let's hope the similarities end there.

Ana is struggling this afternoon. After an modest burst of heavy thunderstorm activity prompted NHC to upgrade Ana to a tropical storm early this morning, Ana has run into strong upper-level winds from the west that are creating high wind shear. This shear was not forecast, and it is not clear how long it will last. The shear has acted to drive dry air into the core of Ana, destroying almost all of Ana's heavy thunderstorms. The low-level center of the storm is now exposed to view, something that often foreshadows the death of a storm. It is possible the shear will destroy Ana, and several models (the GFS and ECMWF) forecast this may be the case. However, the shear forecast calls for shear to drop into the low range, 5 - 10 knots, tonight through Tuesday. If the shear does drop as forecast, Ana should be able to moisten the atmosphere around it sufficiently to protest itself from the dry Saharan air that surrounds it (Figure 1). SSTs are 27°C today, and will increase to 28°C by Sunday. By the time Ana moves into the Bahamas, total ocean heat content rises steeply (Figure 2), and rapid intensification of Ana is possible, if the shear and dry air haven't disrupted the storm. The intensity forecast models, for the most part, predict a steady intensification of Ana to the threshold of hurricane strength five days from now. The HWRF model is on the strong side, predicting a Category 2 hurricane. The GFDL predicts a weak tropical storm five days from now, but that is because the model has Ana passing over the rugged terrain of Hispaniola, something the other models do not predict. In summary, the intensity forecast for Ana has higher than usual uncertainty, and I give equal chances that the storm will be a hurricane--or non-existent--four days from now.


Figure 1. Water vapor image from this morning showing the large area of dry, Saharan air surrounding Ana, and lying to the north of Tropical Depression Three. Image credit: NOAA/SSD

Tropical Depression Three forms, could be Bill later today
QuikSCAT data from this morning and satellite loops revealed that the tropical wave (90L) in the middle Atlantic has finally developed a well developed surface circulation and can be classified as Tropical Depression Three. Recent satellite imagery suggests that TD 3 may already be Tropical Storm Bill. Water vapor imagery (Figure 1) shows that TD 3's center consolidated a few hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). Thus, the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Ana has been. Ana may also act to moisten the atmosphere in front of TD 3, helping protect the storm from the SAL as it edges farther north over the the three days.



Figure 2. Heat content of the ocean, in kJ per square cm. Oceanic heat content steadily increases for Ana and TD 3 as they approach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Oceanic heat content levels of 90 kJ per square cm are frequently associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. Image credit: University of Miami.

Wind shear is moderate, 15 knots, but is forecast to fall to 10 - 15 knots on days 2 - 5. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 27.5°C, and will remain in the 27.5 - 28°C range the next five days. The combination of low wind shear and sufficiently warm SSTs should allow TD 3 to intensify steadily, and I expect the storm will be at hurricane strength by Wednesday, when it will be near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Most of our reliable intensity models strengthen TD 3 into a hurricane by Wednesday. Oceanic heat content (Figure 2) increases sharply just before the islands, so TD 3 could be intensifying rapidly as it moves through or just north of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. TD 3 consolidated farther south than expected, so the track models calling for a more northerly path were probably incorrect. In particular, the ECMWF model, which had TD 3 turning sharply northwestward and missing the Lesser Antilles Islands, was probably much too far to the north in this morning's 00Z run. TD 3 will probably pass very close to the northern Lesser Antilles islands on Wednesday and Thursday.

I'll have an update Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Chiggy007:
NAVT site reports BILL with coordinated 11.3N - 34.5W with 1008mb low...


The information given to the models by the NHC was 1004mb.
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1012. rxse7en
Quoting naplesdoppler:
You may want to at least let other bloggers know your source before making it look like your own analysis.

SInce he didn't cite it, it must be assumed he wrote it...because plagiarism is a bad thing ;)
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1011. jdjnola
The GoM is making me uneasy...
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Quoting P451:
S FL

Surface Wind Streams 19Z





Ooh, now that you mention it, the rain really just started to fall. Just as I typed that my TV satelite lost connection.
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NAVT site reports BILL with coordinated 11.3N - 34.5W with 1008mb low...
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

guys talk to me please


Go Here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Click on the link on the left side for

"Aircraft Recon"
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1007. Patrap
Quoting hurricanehanna:

Amazing, eh Pat? quiet quiet them Boom. So ya watchin the GOM still? Anything good cooking this weekend?



Looks Like by 72 Hour's we will have 2 Gumbo's and a etoufee simmering in the Atlantic.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
not yet..


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Quoting atmoaggie:

Reading about it, it sounded good. And who knows, maybe it will prove to be...eventually. We sure do need to make some strides in TC intensity forecasting, cannot improve it without trying, failing, and learning from doing so.
http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html


Interesting, thanks. And that's for sure, seemingly intensity is the hardest thing to predict.

Though, first thing that came to mind was that with the Ana and Guillermo forecasts provided, it's like the ADT of the intensification model realm. Exacerbates the current trends in either way. Sometimes it can be on the money with rapid intensification, sometimes not.
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IMO... Ana is going to hit between Houston Tx to New Orleans Lousiana and Cat 1 or Cat2.....
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Ana is currently moving due west. imo
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Quoting StormW:
Good afternoon!

Hot off the press!

TROPICAL STORM ANA / TD3 / AUG 15, 2009 SPECIAL UPDATE 3:30 P.M. EDT

Thanks for the weekend update Storm - appreciate it!
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3487
Marine Weather Discussion


GULF OF MEXICO...
THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE HAS FRACTURED AND IS NOW MOVING
NW CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR SE GULF. THIS INVERTED TROUGH IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE IN PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE FL STRAITS AND SE WATERS. E TO SE
WINDS HAVE LIKELY INCREASED TO NEAR 20 KT E OF THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH SEAS ESTIMATED TO BE 4-6 FT. E TO SE WINDS ARE GENERALLY 10
KT OR LESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW ACROSS THE EASTERN AND MIDDLE GULF
TONIGHT AND SUN THEN MOVE INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS MON AND TUE.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH WITH E TO SE
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT E OF THE AXIS AND SEAS BUILDING UP
TO 6 FT. TROPICAL STORM ANA IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA BY MID TO LATE WEEK. WILL LIKELY INCORPORATE THIS
FEATURE TO SOME DEGREE IN THE NEXT PACKAGE FOR THE E GULF ZONE.
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Quoting Patrap:
The second Tropical Forms in less than 24 Hours on the Atlantic Basin


2009 Storms
All

Active

Year

Atlantic
green ball icon03L.BILL
green ball icon02L.ANA

Amazing, eh Pat? quiet quiet them Boom. So ya watchin the GOM still? Anything good cooking this weekend?
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3487
Looks like a little kid with a crayon did this.

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Quoting Weather456:


I dont think they will ever shift until later in the cycle. There is still some models that agree on a southerly track, and the officical guidance remains south of the cluster.


Official guidance?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
CJ5 - I agree, Ana has seen a remarkable ability to survive and it seems like even though the shear sucker-punched Ana this AM, it's got it's act together and is repairing the damage. If the shear relaxes as expected and this system exists in some recognizable form in another 48 hours, it would very quickly explode into a small but VERY powerful hurricane and slam into Florida.

Bill, it seems - and let's stop with the fiction that TD3 is still a depression it's a TS by now - is too damn big to be much affected by the shear that's hurting Ana. Bill's just going to grow as I don't see much to stop it from growing after the next day or two, and if it takes the southern route it could get mixed up with all that deep, hot water south of Cuba.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
how much longer till the H.H recon flys or are they already out there

guys talk to me please
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Quoting superweatherman:
are they supposed to give the 2pm advisory... are the holding until 5pm?


Graphic updates occur at 5am, 11am, 5pm, 11pm.
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The second Tropical Forms in less than 24 Hours in the Atlantic Basin


2009 Storms
All

Active

Year

Atlantic
green ball icon03L.BILL
green ball icon02L.ANA
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128273
if BILL does not start making that turn at 40w then it will take a dean track of 2007. thru the the central islands
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TROPICAL STORM ANA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
101 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

...TROPICAL STORM ANA MAY IMPACT THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY MONDAY
EVENING...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS
IN EFFECT FOR OUR AREA. HOWEVER...AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS...THE
ISSUANCE OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY SOON BECOME NECESSARY.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 920 MILES
EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.. THIS IS ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF
SAN JUAN PR...OR ABOUT 1140 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAINT THOMAS
VI. ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 16 MPH AND MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
AT THE PRESENT MOMENT...TROPICAL STORM ANA IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED
BUT THE FORECAST IS FOR THE STORM TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE
NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. AT THIS TIME...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT
WIND...RAINFALL...AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES FOR SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING SOMEWHERE WITHIN
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EVEN BEFORE THE ISSUANCE OF WATCHES OR WARNINGS...IT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY FOR LOCAL AUTHORITIES TO CLOSE GOVERNMENT
AGENCIES...FERRY SERVICES...AND SCHOOLS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE
YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

THIS IS A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO GO OVER THEIR HURRICANE
DISASTER PLAN. VISITORS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CHECK WITH HOTEL
MANAGEMENT OR WITH LOCAL OFFICIALS REGARDING ANY ACTIONS THEY
SHOULD TAKE.

DO NOT FOCUS ON THE SKINNY BLACK LINE.

A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT ON A MAP...THE
DANGEROUS EFFECTS OF A STORM CAN EXTEND SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
AWAY FROM THE CENTER. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE CONE OF
UNCERTAINTY...YOU COULD STILL EXPERIENCE HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...SERIOUSLY IMPACTING LIFE AND PROPERTY.

THE FOLLOWING ARE SUGGESTED ACTIONS THAT CAN BE TAKEN AT THIS
TIME...

CHECK BATTERIES FOR RADIOS AND FLASHLIGHTS. STOCK UP ON DRINKING
WATER AND CANNED OR DRIED FOOD. ENSURE YOU HAVE A MANUAL CAN
OPENER.

HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR AT LEAST THREE TO FIVE DAYS PER
PERSON. GATHER MEDICINES...TOILETRIES...AND FIRST AID SUPPLIES.

HAVE A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF CASH ON HAND SINCE CREDIT CARDS AND
AUTOMATED CASH MACHINES DO NOT WORK WITHOUT POWER.

CHECK FUEL LEVELS ON AUTOMOBILES...GENERATORS...AND CHAIN SAWS.

IF YOU NEED TO MAKE A TRIP TO THE HARDWARE STORE...THE GROCERY
STORE...OR THE GAS STATION...DO SO AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.

PLEASE VISIT WWW.READY.GOV FOR A MORE COMPLETE LIST OF ITEMS TO
INCLUDE IN AN EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS KIT.

DETERMINE WHERE YOU SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOUR AREA. CONSIDER WHETHER YOU LIVE IN A POTENTIAL EVACUATION
ZONE. IF SO...IDENTIFY PRESCRIBED EVACUATION ROUTES WHICH LEAD OUT
OF THE THREATENED AREAS. LEARN THE LOCATIONS OF OFFICIAL SHELTERS.
IN ALL CASES...HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH
ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED.

MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR UNSAFE
CONDITIONS. CONSIDER EARLY STEPS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT. IF SMALL
CRAFT MUST GO OUT AND CURRENT CONDITIONS ALLOW...DO NOT VENTURE
FAR FROM PORT AND DO NOT STAY OUT VERY LONG. RETURN TO PORT
QUICKLY IF A WATCH OR WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

AMZ710-712-715-722-725-732-735-741-742-745-PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-
160300-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.HU.S.0001.090815T1701Z-000000T0000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
101 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

...TROPICAL STORM ANA MAY IMPACT LOCAL ISLANDS BY MONDAY
EVENING...

...NEW INFORMATION...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY INFORMED OF THE LATEST FORECAST. DO NOT GET CAUGHT OFF GUARD
AND BE READY TO ACT QUICKLY IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS BECOME
NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE TOO FAR FROM PORT. TAKE EARLY
STEPS TO SECURE YOUR CRAFT.

&&

...MARINE...

SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EARLY MONDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS AND SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 TO 12 FEET MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING.

$$
ROSA/SEELEY/CUPO
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
Quoting GBguy88:
I'm not saying Ana doesn't pose a threat by any means, but I really think Bill is going to explode. That'll be the one to watch, especially given Ana's chances at battling the terrain over Hispaniola and Cuba. The Carolinas have been awfully lucky the past several years.
so what the nhc and dr. masters said does not matter. they are talking about the caribbean, the antiles, or gom.
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Quoting Funkadelic:
So weather456, what are you expecting the models to do tonight?


I dont think they will ever shift until later in the cycle. There is still some models that agree on a southerly track, and the officical guidance remains south of the cluster.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Newbie question – when do they normally run the different models? Do they run them at the same time each day like at 1pm and 8 pm?
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Quoting serialteg:


omg omg omg omg omg is that an eye


ummm nope.
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983. JLPR
Quoting Weather456:
A tropical storm local statement has been issued for Puerto Rico in anticipation of Ana


The thing is will Ana recuperate from the wind shear that has been affecting it today?
We may end up with a TD if not
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Quoting Cotillion:


Crazily Humongous Intensification Predictor?

Reading about it, it sounded good. And who knows, maybe it will prove to be...eventually. We sure do need to make some strides in TC intensity forecasting, cannot improve it without trying, failing, and learning from doing so.
http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html
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One person said my August Outlook was bullish. Could you beleive

August 2 by Weather456

Summary

I would say that this August will be near the long-term average which dictates about 2-3 storms will form this month. The reason why I cannot say a less than normal August will occur is because the tropical atmosphere has been showing signs of changes since the last week of July. There is a 70% chance of atleast 3 named storms forming this month and it is likely that one of those storms will be a hurricane. However, it is likely this hurricane season will not have more than 10 named storms due its slow progression, as we should have had about our second named storm by this point in time. Activity during a particular season is not correlated to landfall so everyone should still be prepared.

Happy Emancipation (celebrated the first Monday in August) to all the Caribbean folkes out there.

Weather456
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076


omg omg omg omg omg is that an eye
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
The Navy shows that Bill has formed from 03L.
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Hey guys checking in.. so am i reading correctly we have a bill
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Oh, the NHC have links to local statements for Puerto Rico on the main page next to Ana now. Haven't seen that before.

Nice touch.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
can someone give me a link or picture of "Bill"?


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1983
are they supposed to give the 2pm advisory... are the holding until 5pm?
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03L RENAME TS BILL 03L ADVIS INI AT 5 PM
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A tropical storm local statement has been issued for Puerto Rico in anticipation of Ana
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
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can someone give me a link or picture of "Bill"?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
I tell you what if any of these storms come in to the GOM Gas will go up by 50 cents.... This might even be by Wed or Thursday of this next week....

Taco :0)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.