Ana and TD 3 take aim at the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:17 PM GMT on August 15, 2009

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Tropical Storm Ana was born this morning, when the remnants of Tropical Depression Two made a comeback and organized into the first tropical storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Ana is the latest first named storm of the season since Hurricane Andrew got its name on August 17, 1992. The two storms have some similarities, as Andrew formed in the same part of the ocean, and also struggled in its early days with high wind shear and dry air. Let's hope the similarities end there.

Ana is struggling this afternoon. After an modest burst of heavy thunderstorm activity prompted NHC to upgrade Ana to a tropical storm early this morning, Ana has run into strong upper-level winds from the west that are creating high wind shear. This shear was not forecast, and it is not clear how long it will last. The shear has acted to drive dry air into the core of Ana, destroying almost all of Ana's heavy thunderstorms. The low-level center of the storm is now exposed to view, something that often foreshadows the death of a storm. It is possible the shear will destroy Ana, and several models (the GFS and ECMWF) forecast this may be the case. However, the shear forecast calls for shear to drop into the low range, 5 - 10 knots, tonight through Tuesday. If the shear does drop as forecast, Ana should be able to moisten the atmosphere around it sufficiently to protest itself from the dry Saharan air that surrounds it (Figure 1). SSTs are 27°C today, and will increase to 28°C by Sunday. By the time Ana moves into the Bahamas, total ocean heat content rises steeply (Figure 2), and rapid intensification of Ana is possible, if the shear and dry air haven't disrupted the storm. The intensity forecast models, for the most part, predict a steady intensification of Ana to the threshold of hurricane strength five days from now. The HWRF model is on the strong side, predicting a Category 2 hurricane. The GFDL predicts a weak tropical storm five days from now, but that is because the model has Ana passing over the rugged terrain of Hispaniola, something the other models do not predict. In summary, the intensity forecast for Ana has higher than usual uncertainty, and I give equal chances that the storm will be a hurricane--or non-existent--four days from now.


Figure 1. Water vapor image from this morning showing the large area of dry, Saharan air surrounding Ana, and lying to the north of Tropical Depression Three. Image credit: NOAA/SSD

Tropical Depression Three forms, could be Bill later today
QuikSCAT data from this morning and satellite loops revealed that the tropical wave (90L) in the middle Atlantic has finally developed a well developed surface circulation and can be classified as Tropical Depression Three. Recent satellite imagery suggests that TD 3 may already be Tropical Storm Bill. Water vapor imagery (Figure 1) shows that TD 3's center consolidated a few hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). Thus, the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Ana has been. Ana may also act to moisten the atmosphere in front of TD 3, helping protect the storm from the SAL as it edges farther north over the the three days.



Figure 2. Heat content of the ocean, in kJ per square cm. Oceanic heat content steadily increases for Ana and TD 3 as they approach the Lesser Antilles Islands. Oceanic heat content levels of 90 kJ per square cm are frequently associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. Image credit: University of Miami.

Wind shear is moderate, 15 knots, but is forecast to fall to 10 - 15 knots on days 2 - 5. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 27.5°C, and will remain in the 27.5 - 28°C range the next five days. The combination of low wind shear and sufficiently warm SSTs should allow TD 3 to intensify steadily, and I expect the storm will be at hurricane strength by Wednesday, when it will be near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Most of our reliable intensity models strengthen TD 3 into a hurricane by Wednesday. Oceanic heat content (Figure 2) increases sharply just before the islands, so TD 3 could be intensifying rapidly as it moves through or just north of the Lesser Antilles on Thursday. TD 3 consolidated farther south than expected, so the track models calling for a more northerly path were probably incorrect. In particular, the ECMWF model, which had TD 3 turning sharply northwestward and missing the Lesser Antilles Islands, was probably much too far to the north in this morning's 00Z run. TD 3 will probably pass very close to the northern Lesser Antilles islands on Wednesday and Thursday.

I'll have an update Sunday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Funkadelic:
I remember StormW making a good point about Bill's potential track. He of course said that it is to far out to Really predict what the trough is going to do and everything. But he said Bill could feel a weakness and move WNW like models are thinking, but then th high could move back in and then steer Bill off to the west.

So a recurveature is certaintly not a given at this point in time.

And Anna right now if she keeps moving lke she has, will miss her next forcasted point to the north by a little.



Link
thats bring everything in focus
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Well my early prediction is for an East Coast toward the Carolina's. I was thinking Florida but i think this may go further north but not out to sea.
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Hey guys whats up this afternoon
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Are the planes schedulle to fligh tonight??
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Quoting Ameister12:
I looks like TS Ana might be starting to get her act together.

i agree
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Quoting Orcasystems:


How about this one??


Hmmm can't see it
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Quoting AllStar17:
Wow! I went on vacation for a week, and what has happened? 0-0-0 no longer, I guess! Looking at first Ana:

Not looking very impressive at the moment, with a small amount of thunderstorms, and an exposed center. But some of the latest models are shifting south, and some even south of the islands, into the extreme heat content of the
Caribbean, and even the Gulf. If it does indeed go south of the Caribbean islands, could be an extreme concern.

Bill could be a strong hurricane in a few days, and be a classic Cape Verde type storm. Looking pretty good at the moment. This one definitely bears watching.

Even another area off the coast of Africa that may eventually become Claudette. Wow!

Now is the time to get prepared


Hey same here. I was surprised at what I saw when I got back today. Where did you go?
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Quoting Funkadelic:
I remember StormW making a good point about Bill's potential track. He of course said that it is to far out to Really predict what the trough is going to do and everything. But he said Bill could feel a weakness and move WNW like models are thinking, but then th high could move back in and then steer Bill off to the west.

So a recurveature is certaintly not a given at this point in time.

And Anna right now if she keeps moving lke she has, will miss her next forcasted point to the north by a little.



Link
So long story short me and all of SFLA are f***ed
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Orca thanks


according to reccon, Ana is maintaining TS status
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Quoting Weather456:
ana reccon at 22Z

997mb 160° (from the SSE) 36 knots (41 mph)
Both seem to be firing convection again.
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I looks like TS Ana might be starting to get her act together.

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I will be posting all Dropsonde observations.
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Quoting mobilegirl81:

Bill could be a double threat with another high building in place.
NYC, but it will probably be ETS or STS
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Quoting antonio28:
Humm watch out in GOM I see a change in color in the next TWO.


huh?
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Quoting kmanislander:


How many of you have a weather station ?. It might be good some time to compare stats if need be.
Quoting XL:


I don't unfortunately. I do fancy having one - not that I would necessarily understand what it was telling me. lol

I have a weather station
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Latest Dropsonde observation, Observation #4
Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 22:10Z
Aircraft: Gulfstream IV-SP (G-IV) (Reg. Num. N49RF)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Ana (originating in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission
Observation Number: 04

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 22Z on the 15th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 200mb
Coordinates: 15.6N 51.0W (View map)
Location: 602 miles (970 km) to the ENE (73°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
Marsden Square: 042 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1011mb (29.85 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.2°C (81.0°F) 24.7°C (76.5°F) 65° (from the ENE) 23 knots (26 mph)
1000mb 97m (318 ft) 26.2°C (79.2°F) 24.2°C (75.6°F) 70° (from the ENE) 22 knots (25 mph)
925mb 782m (2,566 ft) 21.8°C (71.2°F) 19.0°C (66.2°F) 85° (from the E) 24 knots (28 mph)
850mb 1,514m (4,967 ft) 18.6°C (65.5°F) 14.9°C (58.8°F) 90° (from the E) 29 knots (33 mph)
700mb 3,154m (10,348 ft) 9.0°C (48.2°F) Approximately 2°C (36°F) 90° (from the E) 39 knots (45 mph)
500mb 5,880m (19,291 ft) -4.5°C (23.9°F) Approximately -12°C (10°F) 55° (from the NE) 19 knots (22 mph)
400mb 7,600m (24,934 ft) -15.1°C (4.8°F) Approximately -37°C (-35°F) 45° (from the NE) 15 knots (17 mph)
300mb 9,710m (31,857 ft) -30.5°C (-22.9°F) Approximately -40°C (-40°F) 155° (from the SSE) 7 knots (8 mph)
250mb 10,980m (36,024 ft) -41.1°C (-42.0°F) Approximately -59°C (-74°F) 145° (from the SE) 10 knots (12 mph)
200mb 12,450m (40,846 ft) -53.9°C (-65.0°F) Reading usually unavailable when air temperature is below -40°C (-40°F) 170° (from the S) 19 knots (22 mph)
150mb 14,250m (46,752 ft) Height extrapolated since sonde was released within 25mbs below this level.

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 21:48Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.

Remarks Section...

Splash Location: 15.62N 51.05W
Splash Time: 22:03Z

Release Location: 15.62N 50.96W (View map)
Release Time: 21:48:43Z

Splash Location: 15.62N 51.04W (View map)
Splash Time: 22:03:04Z

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 70° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 23 knots (26 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):
- Wind Direction: 90° (from the E)
- Wind Speed: 18 knots (21 mph)
- Depth of Sounding: From 156mb to 1010mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:
- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)
- Wind Direction: 70° (from the ENE)
- Wind Speed: 21 knots (24 mph)

Sounding Software Version: AEV 20801

Part B: Data For Significant Levels...

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
1011mb (Surface) 27.2°C (81.0°F) 24.7°C (76.5°F)
971mb 24.0°C (75.2°F) 22.9°C (73.2°F)
914mb 21.8°C (71.2°F) 17.6°C (63.7°F)
850mb 18.6°C (65.5°F) 14.9°C (58.8°F)
775mb 14.0°C (57.2°F) 10.2°C (50.4°F)
761mb 13.4°C (56.1°F) Approximately 7°C (45°F)
731mb 10.6°C (51.1°F) 6.9°C (44.4°F)
722mb 10.8°C (51.4°F) Approximately 3°C (37°F)
710mb 10.0°C (50.0°F) Approximately 2°C (36°F)
688mb 8.4°C (47.1°F) 4.0°C (39.2°F)
676mb 8.6°C (47.5°F) Approximately 0°C (32°F)
651mb 7.0°C (44.6°F) Approximately -3°C (27°F)
643mb 6.2°C (43.2°F) Approximately -1°C (30°F)
621mb 5.2°C (41.4°F) Approximately -8°C (18°F)
594mb 3.2°C (37.8°F) Approximately -6°C (21°F)
580mb 2.4°C (36.3°F) Approximately -12°C (10°F)
570mb 2.0°C (35.6°F) Approximately -10°C (14°F)
558mb 0.8°C (33.4°F) Approximately -12°C (10°F)
539mb -1.1°C (30.0°F) Approximately -8°C (18°F)
508mb -3.7°C (25.3°F) Approximately -17°C (1°F)
487mb -5.5°C (22.1°F) Approximately -12°C (10°F)
463mb -8.3°C (17.1°F) -12.5°C (9.5°F)
452mb -9.5°C (14.9°F) Approximately -18°C (-0°F)
428mb -12.3°C (9.9°F) Approximately -21°C (-6°F)
405mb -14.3°C (6.3°F) Approximately -41°C (-42°F)
318mb -27.3°C (-17.1°F) Approximately -50°C (-58°F)
297mb -30.9°C (-23.6°F) Approximately -39°C (-38°F)
293mb -31.7°C (-25.1°F) Approximately -41°C (-42°F)
259mb -39.1°C (-38.4°F) Approximately -59°C (-74°F)
203mb -52.9°C (-63.2°F) Approximately -65°C (-85°F)
177mb -60.1°C (-76.2°F) Reading usually unavailable when air temperature is below -40°C (-40°F)
156mb -61.9°C (-79.4°F) Approximately -68°C (-90°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1011mb (Surface) 65° (from the ENE) 23 knots (26 mph)
1006mb 70° (from the ENE) 19 knots (22 mph)
944mb 80° (from the E) 27 knots (31 mph)
926mb 85° (from the E) 24 knots (28 mph)
882mb 95° (from the E) 31 knots (36 mph)
850mb 90° (from the E) 29 knots (33 mph)
692mb 90° (from the E) 40 knots (46 mph)
512mb 65° (from the ENE) 23 knots (26 mph)
487mb 50° (from the NE) 22 knots (25 mph)
475mb 60° (from the ENE) 18 knots (21 mph)
440mb 45° (from the NE) 21 knots (24 mph)
368mb 50° (from the NE) 14 knots (16 mph)
347mb 30° (from the NNE) 11 knots (13 mph)
303mb 130° (from the SE) 5 knots (6 mph)
296mb 160° (from the SSE) 10 knots (12 mph)
250mb 145° (from the SE) 10 knots (12 mph)
234mb 165° (from the SSE) 14 knots (16 mph)
215mb 150° (from the SSE) 19 knots (22 mph)
199mb 170° (from the S) 20 knots (23 mph)
188mb 165° (from the SSE) 19 knots (22 mph)
169mb 140° (from the SE) 37 knots (43 mph)
165mb 145° (from the SE) 32 knots (37 mph)
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ana reccon at 22Z

997mb 160° (from the SSE) 36 knots (41 mph)
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Quoting StadiumEffect:


LOL! I know nothing about Gilbert apart from hearing one or two stories, I was only about 3 years old then!
I grew up in Miamai so I had been through hurricnaes before but that was the first one my kids experienced and I thouroughly enjoyed letting them watch what was going on. Thank God it wasn't any closer.
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Quoting Wariac:
I don't get why people are obsess with the blob near Florida when we have to real systems in the Atlantic and one of them nearing the islands.



Interesting comment, considering how warm the water is in the GOM
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Humm watch out in GOM I see a change in color in the next TWO.
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Quoting canesrule1:
lol, like u mean a SFLA hit?
Looking very good, imo.

Bill could be a double threat with another high building in place.
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Quoting Weather456:


can i have the google earth file


http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/
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The trend is less of an impact on the Leewards with a recurve away from the southeast coast with bill that is. Ana on the other hand might give a glancing blow to the islands before land interaction creates havoc on its tiny circulation.
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Quoting kmanislander:


I was at my parent's home in East End for Gilbert and yes, there were lots of conch and lobster to be had for dinner LOL


LOL! I know nothing about Gilbert apart from hearing one or two stories, I was only about 3 years old then!
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Quoting kmanislander:


Great. We may soon have to form a Cayman chapter of WU LOL. Nice kids incidentally !

Our little Cayman chapter is expanding. THanks for the comment on the kids. Two are mine and the others are cousins. My little trouble makers.
Always look for your comments on here during this time of year. I have been lurking since 2007/08. You are always very informative & seem to always know your stuff. I have a family vacation planned for Nassau this Tuesday. What's your advice?
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1585. Wariac
I don't get why people are obsess with the blob near Florida when we have to real systems in the Atlantic and one of them nearing the islands.
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
Ya believe it after it had 10+ back to back landfalls with the system over Florida during the last 3 days or so. Please!!!!! The latest releasement of the ECMWF Model run with regards to Bill is DEAD WRONG, y'all will see. Oh right, two model runs of the GFS taking the storm safely out to sea, oh yeah, sigh, phew, we are beyond safe, surreal. :)


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Quoting StadiumEffect:


Both of those events caused significant damage on the western side (turtle farm area especially). Won't ever forget the size of those waves, and watching one take down that small house which used to be right near the entrance of the launch ramp near the T. Farm.
Those I remember but then again not direct hits either.
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Wow! I went on vacation for a week, and what has happened? 0-0-0 no longer, I guess! Looking at first Ana:

Not looking very impressive at the moment, with a small amount of thunderstorms, and an exposed center. But some of the latest models are shifting south, and some even south of the islands, into the extreme heat content of the
Caribbean, and even the Gulf. If it does indeed go south of the Caribbean islands, could be an extreme concern.

Bill could be a strong hurricane in a few days, and be a classic Cape Verde type storm. Looking pretty good at the moment. This one definitely bears watching.

Even another area off the coast of Africa that may eventually become Claudette. Wow!

Now is the time to get prepared
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1581. flsky
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Ya believe it after it had 10+ back to back landfalls with the system over Florida during the last 3 days or so. Please!!!!! The latest releasement of the ECMWF Model run with regards to Bill is DEAD WRONG, y'all will see. Oh right, two model runs of the GFS taking the storm safely out to sea, oh yeah, sigh, phew, we are beyond safe, surreal. :)


Please go away.
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1720
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


If you have google earth, on tropical atlantic select Live Recon Data in Google Earth. When it comes up on the left select Non-Tasked Mission.



can i have the google earth file
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Taking a break now. Will check in later
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Quoting Michfan:


True since the 1200 and 00 ones tend to be the ones that do that. I just don't buy the big recurve given how much the GFS has flip flopped on it. Thats a pretty powerful longwave for this time of year if i recall correctly.

Maybe it just does have good data. No one (well almost) launches a balloon for 18 UTC.

We had 2 in the plains. The coastal ones only do it when a threat is imminent...as in almost TS warning time.

The 18 UTC soundings: http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/09081518_OBS/
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1577. jipmg
Quoting adrianalynne:
what time will the 18Z HWRF/GFDL be out?
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Quoting Category5hitsNewYork:
I think that Bill will be like Hugo. It has so many similarities! Charleston or Savannah better keep their eyes glued to their TVS. And not to mention if the ridge does not weaken as much as expected we could see a landfall 60 miles south of where Hugo hit


Grrrr....
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2229
Folks I think we've all seen this before. Models showing out to sea or East Coast or Florida and then the system goes through the Caribbean or hits Haiti. The point is the models can and will change. They almost always overdo the trough and underdo the ridge.
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Quoting Kmanwoodie:


Me too! South Sound...makes three
Hi Kmanwoodie.
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Quoting canesrule1:
highest winds i recorded today where 14 knots with a 21 knot gust.

There is alot of hot water between swfl and the north central gulf coast.
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what time will the 18Z HWRF/GFDL be out?
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Bill is 3270 miles away from Miami, still a lot of time to watch.
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Quoting jdjnola:


Ana has proven she can be exposed yet survive.


I'd rather have an exposed Ana instead of an exposed Bill.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I know. I lived on Shedden Rd then and didn't even lose power or phone. Boy, South Sound road was messed up bad then too. East Enders were picking up conchs and lobster from in the road.


I was at my parent's home in East End for Gilbert and yes, there were lots of conch and lobster to be had for dinner LOL
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What's the best link for the UKM, I used to use the FSU site, but they stopped carrying it and I lost my other link. Thanks in advanced.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 304
Quoting StadiumEffect:


Ivan was of course the worst, but we have had close calls quite a few times. Anyone remember Isidore (can't remember the year) as she passed by as a TS? That was a very potent TS if I remember correctly. An excessive amount of rain and some pretty gusty winds.
Dolly last year too. Major rain and wind in East End. Seems like East End and South Sound generally gets the worst of it.
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1565. Michfan
Quoting atmoaggie:

Weird that it would that at the 18 Z run, though, given that the pressures are higher in the obs now than any other time during the day.


True since the 1200 and 00 ones tend to be the ones that do that. I just don't buy the big recurve given how much the GFS has flip flopped on it. Thats a pretty powerful longwave for this time of year if i recall correctly.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Mitch 98 & Michelle 2001 did some significant damage on Grand cayman from what I can recall, Gilbert Had high winds recorded here up to 158 mph gusts I think , but to me was just a Summer squall compared to Ivan.


Both of those events caused significant damage on the western side (turtle farm area especially). Won't ever forget the size of those waves, and watching one take down that small house which used to be right near the entrance of the launch ramp near the T. Farm.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.