Disturbance 90L close to tropical depression strength; TD 2 may rise again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:02 PM GMT on August 14, 2009

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A strong tropical wave (90L), with a large circulation and a moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, is a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands, off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows that 90L has a large circulation, but this circulation is not yet well-formed, as it is elongated along an east-west axis. Satellite imagery from the European METEOSAT satellite show that the heavy thunderstorms associated with 90L are gradually becoming better organized, with some spiral banding evident on the south side of the storm. Satellite intensity estimates from NOAA already put 90L at tropical depression strength with 30 mph winds, but the storm does not yet have a well enough formed circulation to be classified as a depression. Water vapor imagery shows that since 90L is forming several hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Tropical Depression Two was. However, there is some dry air from the SAL being sucked into the circulation of 90L, and this is retarding its development.

Wind shear is moderate, about 10 - 15 knots, but is forecast to fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today. Shear is then forecast to remain low for the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, and will remain in the 27 - 28°C range the next five days. The combination of low wind shear and sufficiently warm SSTs should allow 90L to develop into a tropical depression by Saturday, and potentially reach hurricane strength by Wednesday. Most of our reliable models strengthen 90L into a hurricane by Wednesday, when the storm is expected to be near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. One important outlier is the ECMWF model, which has 90L passing to the north of the islands, and eventually recurving out to sea east of Bermuda. The ECMWF was by far the most reliable model for forecasting hurricane tracks last year. However, all of our models are pretty unreliable going out 5 days in advance for systems that have yet to reach tropical depression strength. Once 90L becomes a tropical depression and develops a well-formed circulation, the models will have a better handle on forecasting where it will go.


Figure 1. The remnants of Tropical Depression Two (left side of image) and tropical wave 90L (right side of image).

Tropical Depression Two may come back
Tropical Depression Two died yesterday, but may rise again. Satellite loops of the remnants of the storm show that heavy thunderstorms are again attempting a comeback near the axis of what is now a tropical wave. However, dry air continues to interfere with the development of the thunderstorm activity, and moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots is also inhibiting the process. Wind shear over the remnants of TD 2 is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 27°C, but will warm to 28°C two days from now. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the north and west that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that any re-development of the storm will be slow to occur. NHC has given the system a medium (30 - 50% chance) of becoming a tropical depression again by Sunday morning. Only one reliable model, the NOGAPS, is predicting regeneration of TD 2. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are flying research missions into the remnants of TD 2 today and Saturday.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or earlier, if significant developments occur.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:
See guys...I told you the NHC didnt upgrade it to Ana! It will be soon be patient!


No offense, but it is Ana, it's typical for the navy site to post it first. Don't know why though.
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3983. Patrap
6 Hour Comparison Shows the Organization


Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis


Time of Latest Image: 200908150600






Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis

This product combines information from five data sources to create a mid-level (near 700 hPa) wind analysis using a variational approach described in Knaff and DeMaria (2006). The resulting mid-level winds are then adjusted to the surface applying a very simple single column approach. Over the ocean an adjustment factor is applied, which is a function of radius from the center ranging from 0.9 to 0.7, and the winds are turned 20 degrees toward low pressure. Over land, the oceanic winds are reduced by an additional 20% and turned an additional 20 degrees toward low pressure.

The six datasets used are the QuikSCAT scatterometer, which is adjusted upward to 700 hPa in the same manner as the surface winds are adjusted downward, ASCAT scatterometer (treated the same way as QuikSCAT), feature track winds in the mid-levels from the operational satellite centers, 2-d flight-level winds estimated from infrared imagery (see Mueller et al 2006 ) and 2-d winds created from Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU)- derived height fields and solving the non-linear balance equations as described in Bessho et al (2006).

Each of the input data are show in subpannels following the analysis (i.e., storm-relative). Shown are AMSU winds, Cloud-drift/IR/WV winds, IR-proxy winds and Scatterometer winds; QuikSCAT (BLUE) and ASCAT (RED). All input data in these panels has been reduced to a 10-m land or oceanic exposure depending on the location (i.e., non-surface data has been reduced to a 10-m exposure).










Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
My Tropical Analysis for 2AM

I'm going to bed. Good night.
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3981. Walshy
Tropical Storm Historical Tracking Map

Link

No storm crossed into the GOM, respecting TD2's position and intensity when passing north of the islands.

1998 Chris Looks like the most favorable track, climatology speaking of course.
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Oh, and Guillermo's a Cat 3.



Impressive.
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Quoting 7544:


another hour it will navy is always first then the nhc follows


That doesnt make any sense...why did they wait until the 5 AM advisory to post it's TS. They could of wrote a special advisory.
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Oh, and Pat... well done on beating the Bungles.

A good game, I hope.
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3977. 7544
Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:
See guys...I told you the NHC didnt upgrade it to Ana! It will be soon be patient!


another hour it will navy is always first then the nhc follows
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AL, 02, 2009081506, , BEST, 0, 145N, 461W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 60, 1010, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ANA, M,

So, one would expect 40mph, 1005mb at the advisory in about an hour.

However! As we know from last time, they can always be subject to change.. only the NHC has the final word.
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See guys...I told you the NHC didnt upgrade it to Ana! It will be soon be patient!
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Funny how things change so quick.

Crow for all those who wrote it off. ;)
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3973. Walshy
Quoting 7544:


wow this coming tuesday how fast is it moving


12PM Moving west at 14mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3972. Patrap
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis


Time of Latest Image: 200908150600






Multi-Platform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis

This product combines information from five data sources to create a mid-level (near 700 hPa) wind analysis using a variational approach described in Knaff and DeMaria (2006). The resulting mid-level winds are then adjusted to the surface applying a very simple single column approach. Over the ocean an adjustment factor is applied, which is a function of radius from the center ranging from 0.9 to 0.7, and the winds are turned 20 degrees toward low pressure. Over land, the oceanic winds are reduced by an additional 20% and turned an additional 20 degrees toward low pressure.

The six datasets used are the QuikSCAT scatterometer, which is adjusted upward to 700 hPa in the same manner as the surface winds are adjusted downward, ASCAT scatterometer (treated the same way as QuikSCAT), feature track winds in the mid-levels from the operational satellite centers, 2-d flight-level winds estimated from infrared imagery (see Mueller et al 2006 ) and 2-d winds created from Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU)- derived height fields and solving the non-linear balance equations as described in Bessho et al (2006).

Each of the input data are show in subpannels following the analysis (i.e., storm-relative). Shown are AMSU winds, Cloud-drift/IR/WV winds, IR-proxy winds and Scatterometer winds; QuikSCAT (BLUE) and ASCAT (RED). All input data in these panels has been reduced to a 10-m land or oceanic exposure depending on the location (i.e., non-surface data has been reduced to a 10-m exposure).






Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
Quoting 7544:


wow this coming tuesday how fast is it moving


15mph.
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Quoting 7544:


wow this coming tuesday how fast is it moving


Thats what I thought.
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3968. 7544
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Good evenin/morning y'all. Just saw this.


MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AS TROUGH
WHICH WAS THE NORTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND MIDDLE GULF
TODAY AND SUN THEN INTO THE NW GULF MON AND INLAND TUE. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE SE GULF THEN SPREAD W INTO THE
SW GULF BY MID WEEK.

A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLC ALONG 29N/30N WILL MOVE N OF THE
AREA ON SUN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS WELL E OF THE AREA BUT
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND APPROACH THE FAR SE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA MON EVENING THEN OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS LATE TUE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE WED.

THEREFORE WILL HEADLINE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD


wow this coming tuesday how fast is it moving
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Quoting howarjo1943:
Am really going to bed now but found this and thought I'd share. TD 2 went about 30 miles north of buoy 41041. Strongest conditions observed were: 23kts sustained winds from S, 27kt gust, 9 foot seas, pressure 29.69.

Link: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/
Be patient and let page load and then just click on the buoy near 14.4N 46W.


Guys, if you have the NDBC website bookmarked, change your link to http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/rmd.shtml because that Google Map version on the homepage is awful. That link will bring you to the classic map and you still get all the same info. That Google Map version is awful and we all hate it.
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3966. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting 7544:
3954. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 7:34 AM GMT on August 15, 2009
000
FZNT02 KNHC 150439 AAA
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0440 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
AMENDED FOR ATLC FORECAST

WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...


.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 15.0N 51.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE...100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT 60 NM
NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 17.0N 58.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. SEAS TO 17
FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 19.5N 65.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 22.0N 71.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 25.5N 76.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT

in the bahhamas at 60k thats a hurricane right 25n 76 west
63kts is a CAT 1 CANE short by 3 kts
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evenin/morning y'all. Just saw this.


MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2009

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AS TROUGH
WHICH WAS THE NORTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND MIDDLE GULF
TODAY AND SUN THEN INTO THE NW GULF MON AND INLAND TUE. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE SE GULF THEN SPREAD W INTO THE
SW GULF BY MID WEEK.

A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLC ALONG 29N/30N WILL MOVE N OF THE
AREA ON SUN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS WELL E OF THE AREA BUT
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND APPROACH THE FAR SE
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA MON EVENING THEN OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS LATE TUE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE WED.

THEREFORE WILL HEADLINE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3964. Walshy
Hawaii NWS


The National Hurricane Center forecasts Hurricane Guillermo to cross
140w into the central North Pacific around Sunday afternoon...and to
pass 150w in a greatly weakened condition by about Tuesday
afternoon. Given the uncertainties in long-term track and intensity
forecasts...it is far too early to know what effects...if any...this
system will have on the state. However...the current forecast
predicts Guillermo to pass well to the north of the state. In this
scenario...the main effect of the storm would be to weaken the
trades greatly...likely allowing a diurnal wind regime to set up
over the islands.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3963. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 AUG 2009 Time : 061500 UTC
Lat : 14:36:33 N Lon : 46:04:30 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 992.6mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.6 4.0 4.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -59.7C Cloud Region Temp : -50.7C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.96 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3962. 7544
3954. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 7:34 AM GMT on August 15, 2009
000
FZNT02 KNHC 150439 AAA
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0440 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
AMENDED FOR ATLC FORECAST

WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...


.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 15.0N 51.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE...100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT 60 NM
NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 17.0N 58.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. SEAS TO 17
FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 19.5N 65.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 22.0N 71.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 25.5N 76.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT

in the bahhamas at 60k thats a hurricane right 25n 76 west
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Quoting jipmg:


based on that its getting closer to hurricane strength


ADT's weird. It amplifies the current trends, often bombing things out when it's only a gradual strengthening, and vice versa.

But funnily enough, it also struggles with actual rapid intensification, as it often is left to dust by the reality.

ADT should only really be used as a tool to measure the current trends, as it's done by computers. Not a gospel measurement of a storm's intensity.
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3959. jipmg
65mph winds, and a 992mb pressure.. mhm
Methinks the SHIPs forecast will be all over the place, as it has been.

The 6z run would only take it strong TS, whilst before it was edging towards Cat 2.
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observations from 08/15/2009 0400 GMT to 08/15/2009 0735 GMT

ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS TCC TIDE S1HT S1PD S1DIR S2HT S2PD S2DIR Ice Sea SwH SwP SwD WWH WWP WWD STEEPNESS
(GMT) nm °T °T kts kts ft sec sec °T in in °F °F °F nmi 8th ft ft sec °T ft sec °T Acc Ice ft sec ft sec
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------
41041 B 0650 14.36 -46.01 19 220 180 19.4 23.3 9.2 9 6.2 - 29.75 +0.03 77.7 81.0 - - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- 7.22 9.1 N/A 5.58 4.5 N/A AVERAGE
SHIP S 0600 16.10 -47.30 125 316 230 9.9 - 4.9 2.0 - - 30.00 -0.06 56.3 53.6 51.6 5 7 - 4.9 2.0 140 - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
2 observations reported for 0600 GMT

ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS TCC TIDE S1HT S1PD S1DIR S2HT S2PD S2DIR Ice Sea SwH SwP SwD WWH WWP WWD STEEPNESS
(GMT) nm °T °T kts kts ft sec sec °T in in °F °F °F nmi 8th ft ft sec °T ft sec °T Acc Ice ft sec ft sec
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------
41041 B 0550 14.36 -46.01 19 220 170 23.3 27.2 7.9 10 6.2 - 29.72 -0.06 77.0 81.0 - - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- 5.25 10.0 N/A 5.91 7.1 N/A AVERAGE
1 observations reported for 0500 GMT

ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY ATMP WTMP DEWP VIS TCC TIDE S1HT S1PD S1DIR S2HT S2PD S2DIR Ice Sea SwH SwP SwD WWH WWP WWD STEEPNESS
(GMT) nm °T °T kts kts ft sec sec °T in in °F °F °F nmi 8th ft ft sec °T ft sec °T Acc Ice ft sec ft sec
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------
41041 B 0450 14.36 -46.01 19 220 300 5.8 7.8 - - - - 29.69 -0.14 77.4 81.1 - - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
1 observations reported for 0400 GMT

1 B = Buoy, C = C-MAN Station, D = Drifting Buoy, S = Ship, O = Other

Description of Observation Data

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Quoting howarjo1943:
Am really going to bed now but found this and thought I'd share. TD 2 went about 30 miles north of buoy 41041. Strongest conditions observed were: 23kts sustained winds from S, 27kt gust, 9 foot seas, pressure 29.69.

Link: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/
Be patient and let page load and then just click on the buoy near 14.4N 46W.


Thank you. If this movement will change something in the system path?
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3955. 7544
another 3 mb drop opps

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 992.6mb/ 57.0kt
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3954. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
000
FZNT02 KNHC 150439 AAA
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0440 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
AMENDED FOR ATLC FORECAST

WARNINGS.

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...


.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 15.0N 51.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 0 NM S SEMICIRCLE...100 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM NW
QUADRANT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT 60 NM
NW QUADRANT WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 17.0N 58.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN RADIUS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. SEAS TO 17
FT.
.72 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 19.5N 65.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE.
.96 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 22.0N 71.0W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.
.120 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 25.5N 76.5W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT.

$$
.FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.

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3953. jipmg
Quoting Cotillion:




based on that its getting closer to hurricane strength
Am really going to bed now but found this and thought I'd share. TD 2 went about 30 miles north of buoy 41041. Strongest conditions observed were: 23kts sustained winds from S, 27kt gust, 9 foot seas, pressure 29.69.

Link: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/
Be patient and let page load and then just click on the buoy near 14.4N 46W.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Cotillion:
Oh, we do finally have Ana?


No not until the NHC makes it's official!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


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Good day for all,I'm going for some rest... see you soon in the morning to see our Atlantic runaway!
I will turn to 38 next sunday....what a interesting Bday I will have!!
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Weather456, do you think 90L may miss the islands?
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3946. 7544
funny how we all thought td2 will make it clear for 90l and now its making it clean for its own path lol
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Oh, we do finally have Ana?
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3944. Patrap
Navy Tropical Page
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
Quoting Patrap:
The NHC will Follow with A Statement after Dawn shortly after Shift Change.


FRESCA's for everyone...










No you didn't, LOL!
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Looks like a bit of a southward shift for Ana and a northward shift for 90L.

It looks like 90L may go north of the islands.
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Quoting Patrap:
The NHC will Follow with A Statement after Dawn shortly after Shift Change.


FRESCA's for everyone...










Trust me! They should of already done it...if it was a special statement.
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3939. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning, Antiguia said if Tf2 gets too close will issue advisories by mid Next week.
morning 456
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3938. Patrap
The NHC will Follow with A Statement at Dawn shortly after Shift Change.


FRESCA's for everyone...








Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
00Z Models trended north

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3936. 7544
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Latest models pointing more to East Coast Fla to Ga. Anywone seeig this?



3932. caribbeansurvivor1 7:20 AM GMT on August 15, 2009
Do you have this models? Pls, can you post them here? :)


wow forgot to look

Link
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Quoting jipmg:


when pressure drops it takes a while for the wind to respond, but it does go up


But not always...yes mostly that's true...but I will bet you a dollar...that it wont form in the 5 AM advisory unless the QUICKSCAT next hour shows 35 knots winds.
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Quoting jipmg:


monday??


mid next week. sorry Monday was the drop time
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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