Disturbance 90L close to tropical depression strength; TD 2 may rise again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:02 PM GMT on August 14, 2009

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A strong tropical wave (90L), with a large circulation and a moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, is a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands, off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows that 90L has a large circulation, but this circulation is not yet well-formed, as it is elongated along an east-west axis. Satellite imagery from the European METEOSAT satellite show that the heavy thunderstorms associated with 90L are gradually becoming better organized, with some spiral banding evident on the south side of the storm. Satellite intensity estimates from NOAA already put 90L at tropical depression strength with 30 mph winds, but the storm does not yet have a well enough formed circulation to be classified as a depression. Water vapor imagery shows that since 90L is forming several hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Tropical Depression Two was. However, there is some dry air from the SAL being sucked into the circulation of 90L, and this is retarding its development.

Wind shear is moderate, about 10 - 15 knots, but is forecast to fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today. Shear is then forecast to remain low for the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, and will remain in the 27 - 28°C range the next five days. The combination of low wind shear and sufficiently warm SSTs should allow 90L to develop into a tropical depression by Saturday, and potentially reach hurricane strength by Wednesday. Most of our reliable models strengthen 90L into a hurricane by Wednesday, when the storm is expected to be near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. One important outlier is the ECMWF model, which has 90L passing to the north of the islands, and eventually recurving out to sea east of Bermuda. The ECMWF was by far the most reliable model for forecasting hurricane tracks last year. However, all of our models are pretty unreliable going out 5 days in advance for systems that have yet to reach tropical depression strength. Once 90L becomes a tropical depression and develops a well-formed circulation, the models will have a better handle on forecasting where it will go.


Figure 1. The remnants of Tropical Depression Two (left side of image) and tropical wave 90L (right side of image).

Tropical Depression Two may come back
Tropical Depression Two died yesterday, but may rise again. Satellite loops of the remnants of the storm show that heavy thunderstorms are again attempting a comeback near the axis of what is now a tropical wave. However, dry air continues to interfere with the development of the thunderstorm activity, and moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots is also inhibiting the process. Wind shear over the remnants of TD 2 is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 27°C, but will warm to 28°C two days from now. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the north and west that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that any re-development of the storm will be slow to occur. NHC has given the system a medium (30 - 50% chance) of becoming a tropical depression again by Sunday morning. Only one reliable model, the NOGAPS, is predicting regeneration of TD 2. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are flying research missions into the remnants of TD 2 today and Saturday.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or earlier, if significant developments occur.

Jeff Masters

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Also this time, the center is not exposed and there is no indication of a rapid weakening phase. Just another reason they wouldn't necessarily lean on the QuikSCAT.
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Quoting HurricaneFCast:

The center was exposed (east of the convection) at that point and with that tangible evidence, the ignorance of the Dvorak #'s was the correct judgment call.
This time, however, the Dvorak #'s are much higher.. 992mb's and 57kts. That's a strong TS, which should be supportive enough for the NHC to upgrade this to a 40 or 45mph TS come the next advisory.

This is what I see

15/0615 UTC 14.8N 46.1W T2.5/2.5 02L
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On the recent GFS run, is that Ana or 90L it is showing in the gulf?
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Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:


But my point is they relied on the QuickScat more than the DVORAK #!

The center was exposed (east of the convection) at that point and with that tangible evidence, the ignorance of the Dvorak #'s was the correct judgment call.
This time, however, the Dvorak #'s are much higher.. 992mb's and 57kts. That's a strong TS, which should be supportive enough for the NHC to upgrade this to a 40 or 45mph TS come the next advisory.
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Quoting Cotillion:


They usually wait if it's sort of close to the next advisory unless there's a dramatic shift. Yes, it may well be named... but the fact of the matter is, it'd only be a 5mph increase, named or not.

They re-upgraded TD2 around 1 1/2 hours after the advisory... a full 3-4 hours before the next.

Patience is a virtue... give it another 20 minutes.


We will see...how they assess it! Im curious to see their discussion on why they declare it TS ANA if that's the case!
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Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:


Your right about that but it doesnt take this long to produce a public advisory.


They usually wait if it's sort of close to the next advisory unless there's a dramatic shift. Yes, it may well be named... but the fact of the matter is, it'd only be a 5mph increase, named or not.

They re-upgraded TD2 around 1 1/2 hours after the advisory... a full 3-4 hours before the next.

Patience is a virtue... give it another 20 minutes.
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4027. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
459

WHXX01 KWBC 150652

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0652 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902009) 20090815 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090815 0600 090815 1800 090816 0600 090816 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 12.4N 32.0W 12.7N 35.3W 12.7N 38.8W 12.5N 42.4W

BAMD 12.4N 32.0W 12.7N 35.0W 12.8N 38.4W 12.9N 42.0W

BAMM 12.4N 32.0W 12.7N 35.1W 12.7N 38.5W 12.7N 42.0W

LBAR 12.4N 32.0W 12.5N 35.5W 12.8N 39.6W 13.3N 43.9W

SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 49KTS 60KTS

DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 49KTS 60KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090817 0600 090818 0600 090819 0600 090820 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 12.4N 45.6W 13.2N 49.9W 16.4N 54.4W 20.7N 60.9W

BAMD 13.0N 45.5W 13.3N 51.3W 14.7N 55.2W 18.1N 58.8W

BAMM 12.7N 45.3W 13.4N 50.2W 16.0N 54.3W 20.2N 59.6W

LBAR 13.8N 48.4W 14.3N 56.1W 16.2N 56.3W .0N .0W

SHIP 69KTS 84KTS 91KTS 92KTS

DSHP 69KTS 84KTS 91KTS 92KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 12.4N LONCUR = 32.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 17KT

LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 28.8W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 18KT

LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 25.1W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
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Quoting HurricaneFCast:


That was 3 days ago, prior to the initial collapse of TD2.. This is its return, and its with a vengeance... O.O


But my point is they relied on the QuickScat more than the DVORAK #!
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4025. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
836

WHXX01 KWBC 150646

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0646 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA (AL022009) 20090815 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090815 0600 090815 1800 090816 0600 090816 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.5N 46.1W 15.2N 49.1W 16.3N 52.9W 17.8N 57.4W

BAMD 14.5N 46.1W 15.4N 48.6W 16.3N 51.7W 17.2N 55.2W

BAMM 14.5N 46.1W 15.1N 48.8W 15.7N 52.1W 16.4N 56.0W

LBAR 14.5N 46.1W 14.9N 48.7W 15.7N 51.6W 16.6N 55.1W

SHIP 35KTS 41KTS 45KTS 48KTS

DSHP 35KTS 41KTS 45KTS 48KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090817 0600 090818 0600 090819 0600 090820 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 19.2N 62.0W 22.2N 70.3W 25.0N 76.6W 26.8N 80.9W

BAMD 17.9N 58.9W 19.4N 66.6W 21.2N 73.5W 22.6N 78.4W

BAMM 17.0N 60.1W 18.5N 68.5W 20.0N 76.4W 21.3N 82.6W

LBAR 17.5N 58.9W 19.4N 66.8W .0N .0W .0N .0W

SHIP 51KTS 55KTS 57KTS 58KTS

DSHP 51KTS 55KTS 57KTS 58KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 46.1W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 13KT

LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 43.2W DIRM12 = 268DEG SPDM12 = 15KT

LATM24 = 14.5N LONM24 = 40.5W

WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 60NM



$$

NNNN
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Well, the HWRF was insistent on sending it up along the ridge rather than keep taking it west, albeit bombing it to just shy of major hurricane status in the process.

Much the outlier though. That said, one of the few models that even tried to develop it.

Hopefully, if it must hit something, it can remain as a TS.
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Quoting washingaway:


Right, and they have to provide graphics and discussions. That takes some time.


Your right about that but it doesnt take this long to produce a public advisory.
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Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:


No...I dont think they are lazy...they are usually prompt when they see a tropical storm form.


If the storm is close to land, otherwise they update 5 and 11 a.m and p.m. Ana is way out in sea for another special advisory when one is to come out in about 50 minutes.
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Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:


From 1100 AM AST WED AUG 12 2009: "TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SHOWS A CLASSICAL SHEAR PATTERN IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS DISPLACING
THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 35 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB. HOWEVER...A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0812Z DID NOT SHOW
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND VECTORS THAT LOOKED RELIABLE. THUS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME...
MOST OF THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE DEPRESSION SEEMS TO BE COMING
FROM THE NORTH...REPRESENTING POSSIBLY MORE STABLE AIR PASSING OVER
COOLER WATERS. THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION IS
FEEDING INTO A LARGE DISTURBANCE BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
AFRICA."


That was 3 days ago, prior to the initial collapse of TD2.. This is its return, and it's with a vengeance... O.O
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Quoting HurricaneFCast:

Because it doesn't pose any imminent threat to land if they wait an hour and they're lazy? :)


Right, and they have to provide graphics and discussions. That takes some time.
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4019. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:



Night KOTG..IKE is gonna be a Happy Camper in the am.
happy its finally here worried what it may bring

1/0/0
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Ana

2009-08-15 00:00 -- 2009-08-15 07:30




Even the VMax...shows 30 knot winds!
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How about that 5-day forecast track now? I find it hard to believe we would see a Florida landfall from Ana, given the fact that the only reason the models were trending south and west was due to the fact that TD2 hadn't strengthened to this point, and now that it has it will be in better position to resist the ridging to its north, causing a sooner turn to the WNW and NW, and eventually rounding the ridge sooner rather than later. I think we'll see a change in the models..
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Quoting HurricaneFCast:

Because it doesn't pose any imminent threat to land if they wait an hour and they're lazy? :)


No...I dont think they are lazy...they are usually prompt when they see a tropical storm form.
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Quoting Cotillion:
More than likely an upgrade, FCast.

Everything else that points as an indicator shows we'll get Ana.

And it wasn't so much the Quikscat, it was the fact that TD2 fell apart so quickly (as fast as it's sorted itself out in the last 6-7 hours, if not quicker) which withdrew the upgrade.

That's not happening right now. Quikscat isn't always accurate either, there's often a problem with rain contamined barbs.

As I say, it's a tool, just like everything else.

If it looks like a TS, quacks like a TS, and the mets say it's a TS.. it probably is.


From 1100 AM AST WED AUG 12 2009: "TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SHOWS A CLASSICAL SHEAR PATTERN IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS DISPLACING
THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 35 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB. HOWEVER...A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0812Z DID NOT SHOW
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND VECTORS THAT LOOKED RELIABLE. THUS...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME...
MOST OF THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE DEPRESSION SEEMS TO BE COMING
FROM THE NORTH...REPRESENTING POSSIBLY MORE STABLE AIR PASSING OVER
COOLER WATERS. THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION IS
FEEDING INTO A LARGE DISTURBANCE BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
AFRICA."
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4014. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Ana

2009-08-15 00:00 -- 2009-08-15 07:30


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Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:


CIMISS...is using the Navy product. NHC has to declare this! Like I said...they should have already upgraded this to TS Ana...if that was the case. They could make a special advisory....you know. Doesnt make sense to wait until 5 AM...you know what I mean?

Because it doesn't pose any imminent threat to land if they wait an hour and they're lazy? :)
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4012. Patrap
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
night pat see ya later in the day



Night KOTG..IKE is gonna be a Happy Camper in the am.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128865
Night Pat.
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More than likely an upgrade, FCast.

Everything else that points as an indicator shows we'll get Ana.

And it wasn't so much the Quikscat, it was the fact that TD2 fell apart so quickly (as fast as it's sorted itself out in the last 6-7 hours, if not quicker) which withdrew the upgrade.

That's not happening right now. Quikscat isn't always accurate either, there's often a problem with rain contaminated barbs.

As I say, it's a tool, just like everything else.

If it looks like a TS, quacks like a TS, and the mets say it's a TS.. it probably is.
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And the fact that the center is now well wrapped within the convection rather than to the east of the convection as it was upon its exit of Africa a few days ago.. Just mounting the evidence. I think this has TS strength as we speak.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
WeafhermanNimmy CIMMSjust upgraded to ts 02l


CIMISS...is using the Navy product. NHC has to declare this! Like I said...they should have already upgraded this to TS Ana...if that was the case. They could make a special advisory....you know. Doesnt make sense to wait until 5 AM...you know what I mean?
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you guys talkin ana and all i see is 12:30 advisory...

gnite lol
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4005. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
night pat see ya later in the day
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Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:


I doubt they will.

I believe it will, not to be argumentative Nimmy! Sorry! :) I just find it hard to believe that the T-Numbers are jumping off the charts, showing 992mbs, 57kts and that both CIMSS and the Navy would show it as TS Ana, and NHC would refuse to upgrade it. I'm calling it now.. I'll eat my own words later if I have to :)
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Quoting HurricaneFCast:

Dvorak is showing 57kts right now.. C#3.6, jus' sayin'...


Yes but based on their last discussion. I remember it very well. It stated that the reason they didnt upgrade Ana was because the QUICKSCAT didnt agree with the DVORAK and the felt safe to just go with the QUICKSCAT!
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4002. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
WeafhermanNimmy CIMMSjust upgraded to ts 02l
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4001. Patrap
Off to the wunderland upstairs,..

G'night,G' Morning..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128865
Quoting Cotillion:
Quikscat is just one tool that forecasters use.

It is not the be all and end all.


One important one because it gives you an accurate depiction of the winds....with the low.
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Quoting Walshy:
Tropical Storm Historical Tracking Map

Link

No storm crossed into the GOM, respecting TD2's position and intensity when passing north of the islands.

1998 Chris Looks like the most favorable track, climatology speaking of course.


I hope you're right. Sometimes climatology can bite you in the ummm... Ike made history in that area. The only thing that worries me at this point is yesterday my local NWS NW Gulf said this.

OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE BERMUDA SFC HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SE FLOW OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL ALSO BE BUILDING OVER THE SE US DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

For all I know they could change that at any time. But don't know if that would move it west from the Bahamas? Or would it miss the ridge to the east? Geography and math my worst subjects. Lol.
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Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:


Yes plus the DVORAK readings....but I already know the DVORAK Readings show a minimal tropical storm but this QUickSCAT needs to show it! Grr....

Dvorak is showing 57kts right now.. C#3.6, jus' sayin'...
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Quoting HurricaneFCast:
Sooo I am just know checking in with the blog, so I don't know what's been asked yet, but I'm going to ask it: Who thinks TD2 will be upgraded to Ana at the next advisory?

(Navy's site already lists it as "02LAna", which to me implies an upgrade by the NHC in the very near future)


I doubt they will.
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3996. Patrap
Should be a Strong NFC South Team..Hopefully,
3turnovers forced and recovered,one for touchdown,Interception.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128865
3995. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Tropical Storm 02L




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 7.2
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm


Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 AUG 2009 Time : 064500 UTC
Lat : 14:36:50 N Lon : 46:11:27 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 992.6mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.6 3.5 3.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -55.6C Cloud Region Temp : -51.2C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.75 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************


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Quoting Cotillion:
Quikscat is just one tool that forecasters use.

It is not the be all and end all.


Yes plus the DVORAK readings....but I already know the DVORAK Readings show a minimal tropical storm but this QUickSCAT needs to show it! Grr....
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Sooo I am just now checking in with the blog, so I don't know what's been asked yet, but I'm going to ask it: Who thinks TD2 will be upgraded to Ana at the next advisory?

(Navy's site already lists it as "02LAna", which to me implies an upgrade by the NHC in the very near future)
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Quoting Patrap:


Defense did real well.

17 to 7 Saints win


Bodes well for the season, that's where they needed to improve.

Think they'll do well this year.
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Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:


Dont get offended but Im just waiting for the QuickScat to be updated....to declare if it will be TD Ana!


I'm not offended, nothing wrong with you wanting to confirm.
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Quikscat is just one tool that forecasters use.

It is not the be all and end all.
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3989. Walshy
B
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3988. Walshy
Blog Poll

How many comments will be posted before the next blog?

A) 4,500
B) 5,000
C) 5,500
D) 6,000+
E) ?,???
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Still shows Winds at 30 knots.....to the north of the low!
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Quoting washingaway:


No offense, but it is Ana, it's typical for the navy site to post it first. Don't know why though.


Dont get offended but Im just waiting for the QuickScat to be updated....to declare if it will be TD Ana!
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3985. Patrap
Quoting Cotillion:
Oh, and Pat... well done on beating the Bungles.

A good game, I hope.


Defense did real well.

17 to 7 Saints win
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128865
Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:
See guys...I told you the NHC didnt upgrade it to Ana! It will be soon be patient!


No offense, but it is Ana, it's typical for the navy site to post it first. Don't know why though.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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