Disturbance 90L close to tropical depression strength; TD 2 may rise again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:02 PM GMT on August 14, 2009

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A strong tropical wave (90L), with a large circulation and a moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, is a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands, off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows that 90L has a large circulation, but this circulation is not yet well-formed, as it is elongated along an east-west axis. Satellite imagery from the European METEOSAT satellite show that the heavy thunderstorms associated with 90L are gradually becoming better organized, with some spiral banding evident on the south side of the storm. Satellite intensity estimates from NOAA already put 90L at tropical depression strength with 30 mph winds, but the storm does not yet have a well enough formed circulation to be classified as a depression. Water vapor imagery shows that since 90L is forming several hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Tropical Depression Two was. However, there is some dry air from the SAL being sucked into the circulation of 90L, and this is retarding its development.

Wind shear is moderate, about 10 - 15 knots, but is forecast to fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today. Shear is then forecast to remain low for the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, and will remain in the 27 - 28°C range the next five days. The combination of low wind shear and sufficiently warm SSTs should allow 90L to develop into a tropical depression by Saturday, and potentially reach hurricane strength by Wednesday. Most of our reliable models strengthen 90L into a hurricane by Wednesday, when the storm is expected to be near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. One important outlier is the ECMWF model, which has 90L passing to the north of the islands, and eventually recurving out to sea east of Bermuda. The ECMWF was by far the most reliable model for forecasting hurricane tracks last year. However, all of our models are pretty unreliable going out 5 days in advance for systems that have yet to reach tropical depression strength. Once 90L becomes a tropical depression and develops a well-formed circulation, the models will have a better handle on forecasting where it will go.


Figure 1. The remnants of Tropical Depression Two (left side of image) and tropical wave 90L (right side of image).

Tropical Depression Two may come back
Tropical Depression Two died yesterday, but may rise again. Satellite loops of the remnants of the storm show that heavy thunderstorms are again attempting a comeback near the axis of what is now a tropical wave. However, dry air continues to interfere with the development of the thunderstorm activity, and moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots is also inhibiting the process. Wind shear over the remnants of TD 2 is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 27°C, but will warm to 28°C two days from now. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the north and west that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that any re-development of the storm will be slow to occur. NHC has given the system a medium (30 - 50% chance) of becoming a tropical depression again by Sunday morning. Only one reliable model, the NOGAPS, is predicting regeneration of TD 2. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are flying research missions into the remnants of TD 2 today and Saturday.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or earlier, if significant developments occur.

Jeff Masters

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Very interesting....I totally agree with the discussion b/c the DVORAK reading jumped from 1.5 to 2.5 this morning. I just dont really get why last Wed they didnt upgrade it to TS Ana.
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Quoting TropicalWxWatcher:
Long time lurker here...

But I have a question...does anyone forsee any potential areas in which Ana may potentially go through a rapid intensification stage?

I mean, I've seen over the years NHC forecasting a newly developed storm rather conservatively, only to have it bomb out somewhere along it's track and thus become much stronger than they or the models forecasted.

No, I am not saying this will happen, nor do I wish it to. Rather I am just wondering if any more experienced members here have an opinion or potential answer to my question.


the Bahamas and around the SE Florida have very high THCP and SST waters. I'm afraid it wouldn't be out of the question for it to bomb around there. It's certainly happened before.

Who knows whether it would, depends on shear and other factors. Long time out, and the track may yet change. Anything after 3 days is always difficult

Edit: oh, but one thing: It'll be moving on a good clip around there, it won't have that much time over the really hot waters. That can only be good.
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Just one thing to note, latest Dvorak #'s are out, and the CI# hasn't changed at a 3.6, but there is one change:
Weakening Flag : ON

Cloud tops have warmed a bit in the past half hour, about 2 degrees C. However, the Dvorak #'s still indicate a moderate TS, and is still well ahead of the NHC's conservative intensity estimates.
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Puny aint she?
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4080. IKE
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Long time lurker here...

But I have a question...does anyone forsee any potential areas in which Ana may potentially go through a rapid intensification stage?

I mean, I've seen over the years NHC forecasting a newly developed storm rather conservatively, only to have it bomb out somewhere along it's track and thus become much stronger than they or the models forecasted.

No, I am not saying this will happen, nor do I wish it to. Rather I am just wondering if any more experienced members here have an opinion or potential answer to my question.
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The bottom paragraph is the most interesting. They seem to have an idea where it's going, but the intensity could be a crapshoot, depending on shear and a trough.

They admit this is below the intensity guidelines, which with reference to the NHC intensity forecast, would mean they could expect a hurricane around 96 hours time, ish. Somewhere over the Bahamas and Cuba.
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Quoting HurricaneFCast:

I am, don't know if I'll be able to afford Miami for grad school though, might go to FSU for grad. Miami is 35.5k per year for tuition, luckily I got a scholarship but It's only good for 3 more years, which is enough for my Bachelor's and year towards my Master's.


Way to go your speciality will most likely be Tropical Weather right?
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4076. IKE
Quoting Cotillion:


Mornin' Ike.


Morning....

Finally.....after 76 days......

1-0-0
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Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:
Ok you guys are right! LOL...

Put a jackass on my avatar...lol...



Nah, I wouldn't do that, I would think of something better. lol
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We finally have Ana our first named storm for 2009.
There are you happy. LOL Wonder how it'll be like when more people wake up?

PS: in all seriousness lets hope for the best
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Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:


Oh wow that's a good school! Are you planning to go to grad school?

I am, don't know if I'll be able to afford Miami for grad school though, might go to FSU for grad. Miami is 35.5k per year for tuition, luckily I got a scholarship but It's only good for 3 more years, which is enough for my Bachelor's and year towards my Master's.
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4072. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting IKE:
ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
morning ike 1/0/0
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Wow...

It has it hitting as a 70 mph right around where I live. Sounds like fun.
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Quoting HurricaneFCast:

That would be me.. I go to the University of Miami


Oh wow that's a good school! Are you planning to go to grad school?
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Quoting IKE:
ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

Which would generally indicate strong high pressure... not good for avoiding a U.S. strike.. This looks like it will be someone's problem come next week, the question now becomes whom's?
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Quoting IKE:
ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.


Mornin' Ike.
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TNT42 KNHC 150840
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
ANA. THE STORM IS DISPLAYING IMPROVED BANDING IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE ALONG WITH A BALL OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. NOAA
BUOY 41041 REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1005 MB AS THE
DEPRESSION PASSED VERY NEAR THE BUOY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/14. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS PATTERN FAVORS THE
TRACK OF ANA GRADUALLY BENDING FROM A WEST TO A WEST-NORTHWEST
DIRECTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT
OUTLIERS TO THIS TRACK ARE THE GFDL AND GFS...WHICH BOTH WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM RATHER QUICKLY...LEADING TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE
CYCLONE. IN A FEW DAYS...SOME OF THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS...
SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT COULD
ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE LATITUDE. THIS WEAKNESS
APPEARS TO BE CAUSED BY THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR
25N 65W. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INFLUENCE ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. GENERALLY...THE MODELS THAT HOLD ONTO
ANA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST FOR THIS ADVISORY...
BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE 0000 UTC GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST A MORE CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING THAN PREVIOUS CYCLES...SHOWING A
WEAKER MID-OCEANIC TROUGH AFFECTING THE SYSTEM. IN PARTICULAR...THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS BUILD UPPER-RIDGING NEAR THE CYCLONE WITH LIGHT
SHEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME WESTERLY
SHEAR DEVELOPING IN ABOUT A DAY...BUT EVEN THAT MODEL HAS LIGHTER
SHEAR CONDITIONS IN A FEW DAYS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE RUNS THE
FULL SPECTRUM THIS MORNING...WITH THE GFDL DISSIPATING THE
SYSTEM...WHILE THE HWRF SHOWS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS INCREASED CONSERVATIVELY...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL BUT BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 14.6N 46.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 14.7N 49.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 15.3N 52.7W 45 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 16.1N 56.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 17.0N 60.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 19.5N 67.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 22.5N 73.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 26.0N 78.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Near a hurricane towards the end of the forecast.
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Who wants to bet on Bill by the 11:00?
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4065. IKE
ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
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Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:
Any aspiring meteorologist who is in school now?

That would be me.. I go to the University of Miami
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Lol NM :)
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NHC issuing advisories on Hurricane GUILLERMO
CPHC issuing advisories on ANA
Last NHC advisory issued on ANA

Error from NHC
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Ok you guys are right! LOL...

Put a jackass on my avatar...lol...

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4060. alcomat
Quoting Walshy:
Tropical Storm Historical Tracking Map

Link

No storm crossed into the GOM, respecting TD2's position and intensity when passing north of the islands.

1998 Chris Looks like the most favorable track, climatology speaking of course.
oh really,do you remember Ike last year? went north of the islands through cuba,and into the gulf.technically it crossed the atlantic,carribean,and gulf of mexico..
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000
WTNT32 KNHC 150836
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
500 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009

...ANA FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST OR ABOUT 1010
MILES...1630 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK ANA COULD
BE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA BUOY
41041 IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.6N 46.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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Any aspiring meteorologist who is in school now?
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Its Ana on the NHC site now.
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4056. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
021

WTNT32 KNHC 150836

TCPAT2

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ANA ADVISORY NUMBER 13

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009

500 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009



...ANA FORMS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...



INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

TROPICAL STORM ANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR

PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED

STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA

OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.



AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.8 WEST OR ABOUT 1010

MILES...1630 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.



ANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...AND THIS

GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK ANA COULD

BE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR NEXT 48 HOURS.



TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM

FROM THE CENTER.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA BUOY

41041 IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.



...SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST INFORMATION...

LOCATION...14.6N 46.8W

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB



THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

1100 AM AST.



$$

FORECASTER BLAKE
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000
WTNT22 KNHC 150836
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM ANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
0900 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 46.8W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

There we go.

1,0,0.
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THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF GUILLERMO REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH
THE CLARITY OF THE EYE IN INFRARED IMAGERY HAS VARIED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 5.5 FROM TAFB AND 5.0 FROM SAB
AT 0600 UTC...WHILE THE 3-HOUR AVERAGE UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES REMAIN
AROUND 6.0. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 100 KT AS A BLEND OF
THESE ESTIMATES.

First time I've seen them mention the ADT... perhaps I've missed it in times past.
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Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:


No deal! LOL....Only I get to do it..haha!


I'm still in, cause it's Ana!
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No change for Guillermo.

Forecast says it'll begin on a weakening trend now.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hey pal there the NHC and they do exactly as they want and it will be ana at 5 am watch wait see


But remember your image that you showed with the VTMAX it showed winds up to 30 knots!
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Quoting washingaway:


Do I get to pick yours if I'm right?


No deal! LOL....Only I get to do it..haha!
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Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:


lol...deal washing?


Do I get to pick yours if I'm right?
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So do they release it at 4:45 AST/EDT time?
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4047. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:
My question then is...why did they issue a special statement at 1230 AM AST....they could have waited until 2 AM AST right?
hey pal there the NHC and they do exactly as they want and it will be ana at 5 am watch wait see
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Quoting nishinigami:
On the recent GFS run, is that Ana or 90L it is showing in the gulf?


I couldnt tell either. But on the last GFDL for 02l it looks like it completely disipates Ana and takes 90l towards the caribbean. Hopefully we'll have clearer models soon.
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Quoting HurricaneFCast:

Nimmy take that deal washing is offering you!!!!


lol...deal washing?
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Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:


LOL no! Im learning in the process... :) Trust me...Im too nice to do that.

Awwwww come on.. Lol.. That way something exciting happens either way.. We have our first TS, or washing has an embarrassing avatar.
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Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:
10 more mins approx till the NHC release their outlook...I really do hope you guys are right!

Nimmy take that deal washing is offering you!!!!
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Quoting washingaway:





I wi

I will make a deal with you: If the NHC does not classify Ana on the next advisory, you can pick my avatar. It can be horse's ass if you want, which would probably be better than what I am currently using.


LOL no! Im learning in the process... :) Trust me...Im too nice to do that.
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Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:

This is what I see

15/0615 UTC 14.8N 46.1W T2.5/2.5 02L

Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:
My question then is...why did they issue a special statement at 1230 AM AST....they could have waited until 2 AM AST right?

Any number of reasons.. They could be switching shifts right now, in which a new set of forecasters have to analyze the new data that haven't been following it all night. They could figure that they work on the Tropical Weather Discussions at 2 and 8 every 6 hours, while the official Storm-Specific updates are at 5 & 11 and they are working on one or the other.. Donut break, who knows?
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10 more mins approx till the NHC release their outlook...I really do hope you guys are right!
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Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:


Your right about that but it doesnt take this long to produce a public advisory.

Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:


But my point is they relied on the QuickScat more than the DVORAK #!


Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:


We will see...how they assess it! Im curious to see their discussion on why they declare it TS ANA if that's the case!


I wi
Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:


We will see...how they assess it! Im curious to see their discussion on why they declare it TS ANA if that's the case!


I will make a deal with you: If the NHC does not classify Ana on the next advisory, you can pick my avatar. It can be horse's ass if you want, which would probably be better than what I am currently using.
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Quoting WeafhermanNimmy:
My question then is...why did they issue a special statement at 1230 AM AST....they could have waited until 2 AM AST right?


2am is intermediate, for TS/Hur Watch/Warnings.

It would of been 5am.
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Quoting HurricaneFCast:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 AUG 2009 Time : 071500 UTC
Lat : 14:37:09 N Lon : 46:18:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 992.6mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.5 3.1 3.0


Hurricane FCAT what's wrong with this: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
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My question then is...why did they issue a special statement at 1230 AM AST....they could have waited until 2 AM AST right?
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 AUG 2009 Time : 071500 UTC
Lat : 14:37:09 N Lon : 46:18:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 992.6mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.5 3.1 3.0
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Also this time, the center is not exposed and there is no indication of a rapid weakening phase. Just another reason they wouldn't necessarily lean on the QuikSCAT.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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