Disturbance 90L close to tropical depression strength; TD 2 may rise again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:02 PM GMT on August 14, 2009

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A strong tropical wave (90L), with a large circulation and a moderate amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, is a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands, off the coast of Africa. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows that 90L has a large circulation, but this circulation is not yet well-formed, as it is elongated along an east-west axis. Satellite imagery from the European METEOSAT satellite show that the heavy thunderstorms associated with 90L are gradually becoming better organized, with some spiral banding evident on the south side of the storm. Satellite intensity estimates from NOAA already put 90L at tropical depression strength with 30 mph winds, but the storm does not yet have a well enough formed circulation to be classified as a depression. Water vapor imagery shows that since 90L is forming several hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Tropical Depression Two was. However, there is some dry air from the SAL being sucked into the circulation of 90L, and this is retarding its development.

Wind shear is moderate, about 10 - 15 knots, but is forecast to fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, later today. Shear is then forecast to remain low for the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, and will remain in the 27 - 28°C range the next five days. The combination of low wind shear and sufficiently warm SSTs should allow 90L to develop into a tropical depression by Saturday, and potentially reach hurricane strength by Wednesday. Most of our reliable models strengthen 90L into a hurricane by Wednesday, when the storm is expected to be near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. One important outlier is the ECMWF model, which has 90L passing to the north of the islands, and eventually recurving out to sea east of Bermuda. The ECMWF was by far the most reliable model for forecasting hurricane tracks last year. However, all of our models are pretty unreliable going out 5 days in advance for systems that have yet to reach tropical depression strength. Once 90L becomes a tropical depression and develops a well-formed circulation, the models will have a better handle on forecasting where it will go.


Figure 1. The remnants of Tropical Depression Two (left side of image) and tropical wave 90L (right side of image).

Tropical Depression Two may come back
Tropical Depression Two died yesterday, but may rise again. Satellite loops of the remnants of the storm show that heavy thunderstorms are again attempting a comeback near the axis of what is now a tropical wave. However, dry air continues to interfere with the development of the thunderstorm activity, and moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots is also inhibiting the process. Wind shear over the remnants of TD 2 is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 27°C, but will warm to 28°C two days from now. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the north and west that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that any re-development of the storm will be slow to occur. NHC has given the system a medium (30 - 50% chance) of becoming a tropical depression again by Sunday morning. Only one reliable model, the NOGAPS, is predicting regeneration of TD 2. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are flying research missions into the remnants of TD 2 today and Saturday.

I'll have an update Saturday morning, or earlier, if significant developments occur.

Jeff Masters

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000
WHXX01 KWBC 151244
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1244 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL032009) 20090815 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090815 1200 090816 0000 090816 1200 090817 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 33.3W 11.6N 36.4W 11.3N 39.5W 11.6N 42.2W
BAMD 11.5N 33.3W 11.6N 36.0W 11.8N 38.9W 12.2N 41.9W
BAMM 11.5N 33.3W 11.6N 36.1W 11.7N 39.0W 12.1N 42.0W
LBAR 11.5N 33.3W 11.5N 36.8W 11.5N 40.7W 12.0N 44.8W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS 55KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090817 1200 090818 1200 090819 1200 090820 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.4N 44.5W 15.2N 50.2W 17.5N 58.0W 19.4N 64.8W
BAMD 12.8N 44.9W 14.5N 50.4W 17.2N 55.4W 21.0N 60.4W
BAMM 12.8N 45.1W 14.8N 50.8W 17.5N 56.7W 20.7N 63.0W
LBAR 12.4N 48.9W 13.1N 55.9W 16.5N 57.7W .0N .0W
SHIP 63KTS 81KTS 88KTS 90KTS
DSHP 63KTS 81KTS 88KTS 90KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 33.3W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 30.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 27.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

TD3.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
4532. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Maybe?

08/15/2009 12:42PM 2,251 invest_RENUMBER_al902009_al032009.ren


On cue.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Taz, I said subject to change because where that data comes from can be changed as we found out the other day with TD2.



can i have a link
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Maybe?

08/15/2009 12:42PM 2,251 invest_RENUMBER_al902009_al032009.ren
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10909
4528. IKE
Quoting TampaSpin:






I think Ah-nah eventually carves out a weakness for Bill.
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PortABeachBum:

Golly! Gee Whiz! I'm SO relieved! YOU have spoken! And who are you again?

I am a young meteorologist who has been studying hurricanes and made accurate predictions about hurricanes past and this current season. I am rarely wrong when it comes to hurricanes.
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Good morning, all. I have been a fan of this site for a couple of years and now am joining the blog group. I see we finally have Ana renamed again after much speculation. I live in South FL and am NOT happy with the 5 day forecast modelat this time. Hope things change. Went thru Francis, Jeanne and Wilma...NOT FUN!
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lol where up to 91 pages
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Quoting Tazmanian:



is there a new one that comes out when do the new one come out


Taz, I said subject to change because where that data comes from can be changed as we found out the other day with TD2.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10909
Anybody happen to know the highest ever number of posts to Dr. Masters blog?
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I think ANA has a 50 50 chance of going into the Caribbean


im going more with 70/30 towards the north of pr, probly we won't see much of it
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Bill is looking real good right now,systems this large usually get to cat 5 status mainly because it can absorb so much and keep chugging along, banding is huge.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



ugh make it a storm


They will at 11 I'm pretty sure. Organization has continued in 90L.
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Quoting Cotillion:
000
WHXX01 KWBC 151240
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1240 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902009) 20090815 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090815 1200 090816 0000 090816 1200 090817 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 33.3W 11.6N 36.4W 11.3N 39.5W 11.6N 42.2W
BAMD 11.5N 33.3W 11.6N 36.0W 11.8N 38.9W 12.2N 41.9W
BAMM 11.5N 33.3W 11.6N 36.1W 11.7N 39.0W 12.1N 42.0W
LBAR 11.5N 33.3W 11.5N 36.8W 11.5N 40.7W 12.0N 44.8W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS 55KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090817 1200 090818 1200 090819 1200 090820 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.4N 44.5W 15.2N 50.2W 17.5N 58.0W 19.4N 64.8W
BAMD 12.8N 44.9W 14.5N 50.4W 17.2N 55.4W 21.0N 60.4W
BAMM 12.8N 45.1W 14.8N 50.8W 17.5N 56.7W 20.7N 63.0W
LBAR 12.4N 48.9W 13.1N 55.9W 16.5N 57.7W .0N .0W
SHIP 63KTS 81KTS 88KTS 90KTS
DSHP 63KTS 81KTS 88KTS 90KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 33.3W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 30.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 27.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN



ugh make it a storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Umm...is this some type of joke? First the CMC now the GFS...


Just woke up to your post… unbelievable. love living in Miami.
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4516. 7544
morning all 10 day gfsx

Link
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4514. snotly
Quoting snotly:


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Stormfury


or if really want to have fun here on this blog ask STORMTOP about tunnels and OTEC

I miss STORMTOP

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OTEC
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Weather456, When you have a second, You got mail....lol
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4511. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Subject to change, here is the 8 AM position of 90L

AL 90 2009081512 BEST 0 115N 333W 30 1006 DB


Upgrade imminent.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ralphfurley:
Max Mayfield (ABC MIAMI) seemed mighty concerned last night at 11pm, which is very un-Mayfield like. He said now is time to prepare and all models have it near south FL on Wed.

Yes, I know "get prepared" is common advice, but Max's demeanor was a bit different, especially this far out


Yes I noticed that also. It seemed his main concern stemmed from the fact that the models were consistently pointing towards sefla. It was also one of his first visits this year because as you know he is only brought on pretty much as a special commentator when the tropics are active. So I wonder if he was just trying to wake up folks to atleast start some preparations.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Subject to change, here is the 8 AM position of 90L

AL 90 2009081512 BEST 0 115N 333W 30 1006 DB



is there a new one that comes out when do the new one come out
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Are any of the models developing ana into a hurricane before it hits Florida and am I the only one who thinks ana will definitely be a hurricane with all that time over warm water?

And what are the models doing strength wise and track wise with future bill
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4507. hahaguy
I see after a long wait we finally have Ana .
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 2838
Quoting cycloone:
i think that everyone's blood pressure is getting a little high for this tiny tropical storm, lets see if it survives before we even begin the "Oh goody Floridas gonna get smashed" I understand that this is the first named storm, and i'm happy too but i'm more intersted in the hurricane in the pacific


100% agree with you
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I'm going to talk about this blog and website on my radio show this morning... I'd love to hear from members on the board and their thoughts.

I'll have on CBS4's David Bernard.

You can listen live from 11:00am-1:00pm on 640AM in S. Florida or online at facebook.com/theslatershow.

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000
WHXX01 KWBC 151240
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1240 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902009) 20090815 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090815 1200 090816 0000 090816 1200 090817 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.5N 33.3W 11.6N 36.4W 11.3N 39.5W 11.6N 42.2W
BAMD 11.5N 33.3W 11.6N 36.0W 11.8N 38.9W 12.2N 41.9W
BAMM 11.5N 33.3W 11.6N 36.1W 11.7N 39.0W 12.1N 42.0W
LBAR 11.5N 33.3W 11.5N 36.8W 11.5N 40.7W 12.0N 44.8W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS 55KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090817 1200 090818 1200 090819 1200 090820 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.4N 44.5W 15.2N 50.2W 17.5N 58.0W 19.4N 64.8W
BAMD 12.8N 44.9W 14.5N 50.4W 17.2N 55.4W 21.0N 60.4W
BAMM 12.8N 45.1W 14.8N 50.8W 17.5N 56.7W 20.7N 63.0W
LBAR 12.4N 48.9W 13.1N 55.9W 16.5N 57.7W .0N .0W
SHIP 63KTS 81KTS 88KTS 90KTS
DSHP 63KTS 81KTS 88KTS 90KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 33.3W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 30.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 27.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Subject to change, here is the 8 AM position of 90L

AL 90 2009081512 BEST 0 115N 333W 30 1006 DB
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10909
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Umm...is this some type of joke? First the CMC now the GFS...


Wow, that looks more like a sick joke.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4501. IKE
Quoting cycloone:
i think that everyone's blood pressure is getting a little high for this tiny tropical storm, lets see if it survives before we even begin the "Oh goody Floridas gonna get smashed" I understand that this is the first named storm, and i'm happy too but i'm more intersted in the hurricane in the pacific


People have waited 76 days for a named system....let em talk...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cycloone:
i think that everyone's blood pressure is getting a little high for this tiny tropical storm, lets see if it survives before we even begin the "Oh goody Floridas gonna get smashed" I understand that this is the first named storm, and i'm happy too but i'm more intersted in the hurricane in the pacific


I hope you realize whats behind Ana, shortly to be Bill. That is what we're worried about.
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Im not even gonna think much about ana until i see 5-6 consistent model runs, and official nhc advisories that show south florida getting affected by this storm. There are a lot more important issues to deal with right now than a tiny tropical storm that might not even hit my area.
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0Z 8 to 10 DAY 500MB MEAN
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4496. IKE
Quoting vince1966:
Why do I bother to read all this "I saw it first" "is going here" "No, There" "I Wish,I Wish" What a drag, I just need good info not all this crap!


That's what WU is for. Skip the blogs then.
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Quoting farhaonhebrew:
SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
546 AM AST SABADO 15 DE AGOSTO DE 2009

LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DOS...FUE DECLARADA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DEHURACANES LA TORMENTA TROPICAL ANA A LAS 5 AM DE ESTA MANANA.EN ESTOS MOMENTOS SE PRONOSTICA QUE SU TRAYECTORIA PASARA A UNAS 50MILLAS DE LA COSTA NORESTE DE PUERTO RICO EL LUNES EN LA TARDE CONVIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL. ES POSIBLE QUE OTROS SISTEMAS TROPICALES...QUE TODAVIA NO SE HAN DESARROLLADO...TAMBIEN SE ESPERA QUE AFECTEN EL AREA LOCAL EL JUEVES Y EL SABADO. EL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA DE SAN JUAN EMITIRA MAS BOLETINES ACERCA DE SISTEMAS CUANDO SE TENGA UNA INFORMACION MAS PRECISA ACERCA DE LA INTENSIDAD Y TRAYECTORIA DE ESTOS SISTEMAS. LOS RESIDENTES YVISITANTES DEBEN COMPLETAR SU PREPARATIVOS PARA ENFRENTAR LAS
INCLEMENCIAS DEL TIEMPO. PARA MAS INFORMACION POR FAVOR CONSULTAR NUESTRA PAGINA EN LA INTERNET Y ESTAR PENDIENTES A LOS BOLETINES PUBLICOS QUE SE EMITIRAN ESTA TARDE.



????
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4494. snotly
Quoting KBH:
Does anyone know if there has been any research done regarding slowing down the progress of potentially dangerous tropical waves or depressions?...


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Stormfury
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I think ANA has a 50 50 chance of going into the Caribbean
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Quoting Weather456:


lol I went to bed around 1am but woke up when the 5am was already posted. Trust me, I cant see myself staying up for advisories, maybe with Wilma rapid intensification that morning. I always tell my self the 5am update will be there in the morning.
I stay up for advisories once a system is just east of the islands. I tend to be on pins and needles then. Gustav was forecasted to completely miss the Cayman Islands last year and ended up passing right between Grand Cayman and Cayman Brac.
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i think that everyone's blood pressure is getting a little high for this tiny tropical storm, lets see if it survives before we even begin the "Oh goody Floridas gonna get smashed" I understand that this is the first named storm, and i'm happy too but i'm more intersted in the hurricane in the pacific
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Why do I bother to read all this "I saw it first" "is going here" "No, There" "I Wish,I Wish" What a drag, I just need good info not all this crap!
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4489. DDR
Morning all
I see we have ana,90L wow...
The itcz is still over the windwards,im expecting more heavy rain today(in Trinidad).
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4488. KBH
Does anyone know if there has been any research done regarding slowing down the progress of potentially dangerous tropical waves or depressions?...
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Quoting IKE:


I've got him on ignore...that's who I was responding to.


Gotcha.
Member Since: July 31, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 8112
4486. IKE
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Dont be tellen me...tell mr. hurricanelover.


I've got him on ignore...that's who I was responding to.
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Max Mayfield (ABC MIAMI) seemed mighty concerned last night at 11pm, which is very un-Mayfield like. He said now is time to prepare and all models have it near south FL on Wed.

Yes, I know "get prepared" is common advice, but Max's demeanor was a bit different, especially this far out
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Quoting TexasWynd:
If its true? Take it as a honor badge. Wear it proud lol.

LMAO!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.