TD 2 nearly dead; African disturbance 90L gathering strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on August 13, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two is near death, but is still worth watching. The dry, Saharan air to the north and west of the depression, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, have almost completely destroyed all of TD 2's heavy thunderstorms. Satellite loops of the storm show a well-formed circulation, but almost no heavy thunderstorm activity.

Wind shear over TD 2 is expected to remain in the modereate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 27°C, but will warm to 28°C three days from now. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north and west that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly, and some of the models indicate the TD 2 may get destroyed in the next day or two. However, several models still predict TD 2 will become a tropical storm. The HWRF model predicts TD 2 will become a hurricane five days from now, but this seems unlikely given the dry air and relatively high wind shear affecting the storm.


Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two (left side of image) and tropical wave 90L (right side of image).

African tropical wave 90L
A strong tropical wave with a large circulation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity is a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands, off the coast of Africa. NHC dubbed this disturbance 90L this morning. This morning's QuikSCAT pass shows that 90L has a very large circulation, and top winds of about 30 mph. Satellite imagery from the European METEOSAT satellite show that the heavy thunderstorms associated with 90L are in two major bands, to the north and to the south of the center. There is no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center yet, and this would have to happen before 90L can be named Tropical Depression Three. Water vapor imagery shows that since 90L is forming several hundred miles south of the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm should not be affected by dry air and dust as much as Tropical Depression Two has been. Wind shear is about 20 knots over 90L, and is forecast to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures are about 28°C, and will remain in the 27 - 28°C range the next five days, which are high enough above the 26°C threshold for tropical cyclone formation to allow some slow development to occur. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave, though they are now less aggressive about intensifying it than they were in earlier runs. The consensus among the reliable HWRF, GFDL, GFS, and ECMWF models is to bring 90L to point near or just north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands 6 - 8 days from now. The storm could be at hurricane strength by then, as forecast by the SHIPS intensity model.

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Good morning everyone. My apologies for asking a question that has been asked before. Which of the GFS runs is the most accurate (I understand that it loses its accuracy the more days out it is)? I see 90L on my doorstep on the 25, for the 3rd time, this time with the 00Z run.

Thank you in advance. :)
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does anyone have any new shear maps
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Good morning.

90L looks very similar to 90L(Dean) from 2007.


Yes, the similarities are actually quite stunning in terms of track and appearance.
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672
3284. fmbill
Hey...why did WU drop the remnant low?

It certainly is an AOI, it has up-to-date model runs, etc.

Seems it would be posted just like an "invest" would. (?)
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3259. IKE 11:52 AM GMT on August 14, 2009
Quoting iluvjess:
22N 77W is worth watching...


NOGAPS takes that here...Florida panhandle.



as a......???
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3282. IKE
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
I think I can deal with that


GFS could be right...I don't know.


Long-term from Mobile,AL....

LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...AS THE EASTERN STATES UPPER
TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT ON SATURDAY...A PIECE OF IT IS FORECAST TO
BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS ENERGY (BEST SEEN AT 1.5
PV SFC) RETROGRADES WEST OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE
WESTERN GULF. AS IT DOES SO...IT WILL HELP THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH TO SHIFT WEST WITH A DEEPER SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ACCORDINGLY RESPOND WITH VALUES
RANGING FROM 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHEST IN
THE EASTERN ZONES. THEREFORE...WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AGAIN GREATEST IN
THE EASTERN AND COASTAL ZONES WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE THE
GREATEST. WHILE COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL DWINDLE OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST
WITH THE MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO SHAPE UP TO BE A RATHER WET DAY ACROSS THE CWA.
THE CULPRIT FOR THIS IJOE MANISCALCOS ACTUALLY A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECWMF APPEAR TO HAVE INITIALIZED THIS SYSTEM WELL AND BOTH MOVE
IT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS WAVE IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS...IT WILL BRING IN ANOTHER SURGE IN PRECIP WATERS STRAIGHT
FROM THE DEEP TROPICS (POSSIBLY OVER 2.25 INCHES) WHICH SHOULD
CORRESPOND TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. THIS WAVE AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY...KEEPING AN ENHANCEMENT IN PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THIS TIME.
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3281. WxLogic
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Seems this path to the northern islands with 90L is consistently appearing more and more everyday.

Should that pan out, it will be in the danger zone for South / Central Floridian's. Last year the models consistently underestimated the strength of high pressure. Hopefully that is not the case this year and it stays N of the islands and up to the grave yard.

Remnant Low #2 may sneak back up as well.


Indeed... also HWRF has been hitting towards a jog to the left on the latter part so might be indicative of a stronger Bermuda High as GFS is depicting and which I believe might be the case.
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Good Morning -

Just saw on GMA a preview of 20/20 special tonight, "Blown Away - Twisted Terror" - about the EF5 tornado that struck Parkersburg, Iowa on the afternoon of May 25, 2008. In case anyone's interested.
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Good morning.

90L looks very similar to 90L(Dean) from 2007.
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3277. WxLogic
Quoting Cotillion:
TD2 looks worse than it did a couple of hours ago.



Looks can be deceiving... TD#2 Remnants still have an excellent structure (Vorticity wise) It has a well defined 850MB to 500MB VORT MAX and also it has an OK low level convergence but it definitely has a better upper level divergence which is out weighting it. So it will be able to sustain itself and regenerate once it starts hitting warmer waters.

Finally, it has some little shear to work with and little SAL to worry about.
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BNT20 KNHC 141137
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...SLOW REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
that tropical wave near the Se Bahamas headed towards south florida is starting to wedge moisture into my area, looks like a rainy afternoon evening and part of tomorrow
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3274. IKE
TD2 is picking up a little convection...it's moving faster too.
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WOW
0-0-0
Today maybe the red circle gets a name?
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Quoting WxLogic:
06Z GFDL:



06Z HWRF:



They should be done shortly.


Seems this path to the northern islands with 90L is consistently appearing more and more everyday.

Should that pan out, it will be in the danger zone for South / Central Floridian's. Last year the models consistently underestimated the strength of high pressure. Hopefully that is not the case this year and it stays N of the islands and up to the grave yard.

Remnant Low #2 may sneak back up as well.
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Quoting IKE:


Looks like in about a week.
I think I can deal with that
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3269. java162
Quoting stoormfury:
latest sat pics may be hinting a slight south of west movement


what are you refering to? 90l or td2
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
the nogaps has this thing headed directly toward south florida very intresting
The latest 06 GFS ten Image Loop show it bypassing trough in 10 days and heading further west Tx/La border..
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looks like we may have TD 3 sometime today looks real healthy and getting cranked up
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3266. IKE
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
Ike, In what time frame is the H suppose to lighten up in ATL. Cause from what I see, if that thing holds then it doesn't lighten up the MS, LA, AL area. And I don't like that option.


Looks like in about a week.
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latest sat pics may be hinting a slight south of west movement
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the nogaps has this thing headed directly toward south florida very intresting
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3263. IKE
Tallahassee,FL. discussion....

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST TROUGH
TODAY AS THE RIDGE OVER THE NATIONS MIDSECTION SHIFTS EWD.
MEANWHILE...THE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW ALSO MOVES EAST INTO THE
NRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES BY SUNDAY. THE WEAK BOUNDARY JUST NW OF THE CWA
LIFTS NWD TODAY...HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER THE NWRN ZONES TO KEEP POPS IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE CWA. SATURDAY...DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WITH LIKELY POPS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA AS A
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER HISPANOLA MOVES WNW INTO THE ERN GULF.
SUNDAY...POPS REMAIN IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE WRN HALF WITH
LOWER CHANCES OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA AS SOME DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR SPREADS WWD TO THE NORTH OF THE WAVE. HIGH TEMPS DURING THE
PERIOD WILL BE MODIFIED BY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOW TEMPS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ALOFT AND WILL BE MAINTAINED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE NATIONS
MIDSECTION. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
CWA...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN EITHER A SE OR ELY FLOW THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL POPS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE PICTURE NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EURO HAS MAINTAINED A WEAKER WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE SECOND WAVE...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE AFRICAN
COAST...DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND RECURVING EAST OF THE
CONUS. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS THE SECOND WAVE INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...BUT MAINTAINS A STRONGER WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE...WHICH
KEEPS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...AND AT
THE END OF THE EXTENDED...IT IS IN THE SLOT BETWEEN CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS. THEREFORE...NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE INTERESTING TO SAY THE
LEAST.

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Ike, In what time frame is the H suppose to lighten up in ATL. Cause from what I see, if that thing holds then it doesn't lighten up the MS, LA, AL area. And I don't like that option.
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3261. jipmg
Alright guys, now is when I think TD2 is showing its going to make a brief regeneration, looks like the shear is very light, and convection is blowing up right on the center
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Good morning all. Strangely enough our local mets have been talking tropics since td2 came off Africa. Sayin the one behind it would be the one to watch though. This is a complete 180 from previous years of downplaying everything til the last minute. Obviously that had disasterous consequences last year. Maybe this will work in our favor and one won't come near us. A girl can hope. :)
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3259. IKE
Quoting iluvjess:
22N 77W is worth watching...


NOGAPS takes that here...Florida panhandle.
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TD2 looks worse than it did a couple of hours ago.

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
22N 77W is worth watching...
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Due to its size, not based on antything other tham my own 'experience' in watching storms, I would think that 90L will be a decent hurricane by the time it reaches islands. Either a Two or even a weak Three.

It is virtually a depression and has a way to travel and develop, before reaching.

Remember Ivan ramped up REALLY quickly.

But, that is me, a weather amateur.
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3254. IKE
Circulation with TD2 is less defined to me.
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3253. cg2916
Quoting TerraNova:

Looks closed and tight enough to me.
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3252. jipmg
Quoting bajelayman2:


But, can it also be said that due to its size, the damage will reflect more than the 'rating'.

i.e. As it takes longer to pass, there will be more rainfall, also duration effect on wind stress is something that is ignored.

A slightly weaker strom that is bigger than another will have longer, persistent stresses on roofs etc, thus causing more damage?


Yes, chances are a category 2 hurricane with a 400 mile wind field would cause much more damage to a larger area in comparison to a category 4 hurricane with a wind field of about 100 miles
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Quoting russh46:



Most cities and counties don't even have a plan for these homes in the event of a cane.


If New Orleans gets a windstorm, it may resolve some of our lingering problems with abandoned post-K/flood houses.
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3250. WxLogic
06Z GFDL:



06Z HWRF:



They should be done shortly.
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3248. IKE
Quoting cg2916:

A GIF is a type of image like a PNG or JPG, but it's made of multiple images. So it's like a movie sort of. For example, hurricanekyle's picture is a gif. Anyone with a picture of moving radar, that's a GIF. When someone posts an image of animates radar, that's a GIF photo.


Okay...I understand.

I tried to put the loop in view. It stops it at a frame.
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3247. breald
3228. jipmg 11:35 AM GMT on August 14, 2009 Hide this comment.

Quoting breald:


Hi guys, do Bermuda highs keep storms to the south/GOM or pull them north?

From most of the models I see on this page it has the storm pulling up the east coast. I know they constantly change but was wondering.
Thanks.



Depends on the intensity of the HIGH, if its weak its likely a stronger system would curve out to see due to a weakening in the ridge, if its strong its likely to keep a tropical system on a continual west path until it reaches a break in the ridge

3233. yonzabam 11:37 AM GMT on August 14, 2009 Hide this comment.

The high keeps them to the south and traveling due west.

The northward tracks up the east coast are due to the high pressure system petering out there

Thanks. Back to lurking.

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Quoting Weather456:


models greatly differ but average out a strong TS or minimal hurricane


But, can it also be said that due to its size, the damage will reflect more than the 'rating'.

i.e. As it takes longer to pass, there will be more rainfall, also duration effect on wind stress is something that is ignored.

A slightly weaker strom that is bigger than another will have longer, persistent stresses on roofs etc, thus causing more damage?
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3245. jipmg
Quoting cg2916:

A GIF is a type of image like a PNG or JPG, but it's made of multiple images. So it's like a movie sort of. For example, hurricanekyle's picture is a gif. Anyone with a picture of moving radar, that's a GIF. When someone posts an image of animates radar, that's a GIF photo.


good explanation, easily better than the one I gave XD
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3244. jipmg
Quoting IKE:


What is gif?


Its basically a picture in motion
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3243. cg2916
Quoting IKE:


What is gif?

A GIF is a type of image like a PNG or JPG, but it's made of multiple images. So it's like a movie sort of. For example, hurricanekyle's picture is a gif. Anyone with a picture of moving radar, that's a GIF. When someone posts an image of animates radar, that's a GIF photo.
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3242. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
The gfs ensemble members from the 00Z run indicate 90L may have some recurvature. Long way out on the ensembles (they run out to 384 hours).



It has to be taken into consideration as I see the Bermuda High being strong enough but not that strong at the later period... so I agree on some re-curvature happening but the key will be where.
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3241. fmbill
Quoting Funkadelic:
I suppose that we will start to hear all the hype on the news channels starting early next week. I guess warning the people early is a good thing. Because I know many people have forgotten about hurricane season due to the slow start.

And the situation is really bad here in south Florida, because every 10 feet there is a forclosed house that is abandoned.


Good morning, all.

One of our local mets told everyone this morning that next week, the tropics will be the "big story".

I guess that was a warning. By the time it approaches, we'll be screaming at the tv, telling the storm to just clobber us and get it over with...LOL!!!
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3239. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...SLOW REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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3238. WxLogic
Quoting 92Andrew:
Question guys:

I know i can go look for the model runs but it would be time consuming, therefore, i prefer to ask all of you.

I am due to leave Miami this upcoming Thursday, and head over to Tallahassee before classes begin... do you think I will be able to leave south florida before 90L threatens the South East?


Yes... you'll have plenty of time.
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Quoting Funkadelic:
I suppose that we will start to hear all the hype on the news channels starting early next week. I guess warning the people early is a good thing. Because I know many people have forgotten about hurricane season due to the slow start.

And the situation is really bad here in south Florida, because every 10 feet there is a forclosed house that is abandoned.


If a major hurricane were to hit an area with a high forclosure (empty homes) rate it would be a nightmare. After Andrew, every contractor was begging to stay (with crew) in damaged homes. With so many homes empty, I think we would see allot of people living in homes that they never got permission to stay in.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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