TD 2 struggling; new African wave bears watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:19 PM GMT on August 12, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two is struggling. The depression still has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm this week, but the dry, Saharan air that surrounds the storm, combined with moderately high levels of wind shear, are interfering with the storm's organization. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is limited to the west side of the depression. This is due to strong winds out of the southeast that are creating a moderate 15 - 20 knots of wind shear. The intensity and coverage of these thunderstorms is meager, thanks to the large amount of dry air to TD 2's north that is getting wrapped into the circulation. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a well-formed surface circulation, with top winds of about 30 - 35 mph.

Wind shear over TD 2 is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next five days. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and will not change much over the next three days. There is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north that will continue to cause the storm problems. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, it does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will eventually be able to become Tropical Storm Ana sometime in the next three days. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands. For now, TD 2 doesn't concern me as much as the new tropical wave to its southeast, just off the coast of Africa.


Figure 1. Tropical Depression Two (left center of image) and a new tropical wave (right side of image), newly emerged from the coast of Africa.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A strong tropical wave with some rotation and plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity left the coast of Africa yesterday, and is located a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the development of this wave late this week. Both of these models indicate that the wave would track further south than Tropical Depression Two, and could impact the Lesser Antilles Islands in about seven days. This storm bears close attention over the coming days.

Two other tropical waves, one that just passed through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 300 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

Felicia moves through Hawaiian Islands as a tropical depression
Tropical Storm Felicia weakened to a tropical depression before passing through the Hawaiian Islands yesterday. The storm brought scattered heavy rains of 1 - 2 inches to the islands, and no damage was reported. Felicia is only the 10th tropical cyclone of tropical depression strength or higher to hit the islands since 1950. Four other tropical cyclones have passed within 75 miles of the islands during that time period.

Be careful clicking on external links in blog comments
A comment may have been posted on my blog over the weekend containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. The exact link responsible has eluded us thus far, and we are also investigating the possibility that a bad banner ad was responsible. To provide an extra layer of protection, we've installed software on the blogs that will now warn users that they are leaving the site when they click on an external link, so that one has do an extra click to go to an external site. This will give users an opportunity to think twice before clicking on a potentially dangerous link. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by the attack. Please submit a support ticket to help us out in the future for any issues of this nature.

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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3195. serialteg
3:53 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
Just for fun...

Another model
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1988
3194. Malachai
3:44 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
3059. PATRAP

I concur there appears to be a rough circulation along the north coast of Cuba at about 23N, 85W. Even a little burst right in the middle of it.
3193. hydrus
3:40 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
Quoting Patrap:
A new entry from Dr. Masters will soon be Loaded since the TD 2 info is out
PATRAP-I wanted to say how cool it is your going to speak at the Portlight Foundation.I think selecting you was and is a wise choice.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22683
3192. hydrus
3:27 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
Quoting hurricanejunky:
That wave entering the Bahamas is starting to look impressive, for a wave. Any models showing development with it? If 90L does make its way over here it could definitely fit the mold of the many historical killer Cape Verde storms. 5th anniversary of Charley today...5 years ago today I was finishing my preparations. What a day that was!!!
I was in Port Charlotte that day.I cannot believe it has been 5 years already.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22683
3191. RadarRich
2:53 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
3189. RadarRich 2:48 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
sorry for repost, got lost in the transition to new blog

Just an observation and something that may need to be monitored a little more closely. Watching quite a few satelite images and loops for the last few hours. AOI just to the east of the SE Bahamas is showing more signs of circulation and much more convection quickly.
Probably a mid level entity at present, but it bears watching since it is close to any significant populated land mass. The area aprox. 21-23 north & 68-69 west
Member Since: June 28, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 406
3190. hurricanejunky
2:50 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
That wave entering the Bahamas is starting to look impressive, for a wave. Any models showing development with it? If 90L does make its way over here it could definitely fit the mold of the many historical killer Cape Verde storms. 5th anniversary of Charley today...5 years ago today I was finishing my preparations. What a day that was!!!
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2899
3189. RadarRich
2:48 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
Just an observation and something that may need to be monitored a little more closely. Watching quite a few satelite images and loops for the last few hours. AOI just to the east of the SE Bahamas is showing more signs of circulation and much more convection quickly.
Probably a mid level entity at present, but it bears watching since it is close to any significant populated land mass. The area aprox. 21-23 north & 68-69 west
Member Since: June 28, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 406
3188. HIEXPRESS
2:47 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
GOM Buoy Pressure Trends
http://www.daughtersoftiresias.org/buoygraph/product/pressure_change_large.jpg
Member Since: October 13, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 2156
3187. WxLogic
2:47 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
Well... the cone as expected keeps moving south (adjusted). As weaker system will tend to have a more left bias to their movement than a right bias on stronger ones.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
3186. HurricaneKyle
2:46 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
Another thing TD-2 had going against it and another reason why 90L has a lot going for it.. TD-2 was small and more likely to dissipate under those conditions where as 90L is massive.
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 672
3185. aussiecold
2:45 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
sorry ,just learning ,first 97L then 98L and 99L why last wave been call 90L???
Member Since: August 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 138
3184. PanhandleChuck
2:40 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
It amazes me that every day that I have to use the ignore button when I visit the blog. For those of you new here, don't post crap and watch and learn from the regulars (those who know what they're talking about).
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1414
3183. nyhurricaneboy
2:40 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
In other news, Guillermo appears to be rapidly intensifying. Winds are now up from 50 to 65 mph.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 104 Comments: 503
3182. Cotillion
2:40 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
Not surprised, I thought they'd wait until 5pm and then see.

5pm maybe the breaker unless it continues this recent trend of progress.

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
3181. TerraNova
2:40 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
Quoting Patrap:
A new entry from Dr. Masters will soon be Loaded since the TD 2 info is out


Right on cue!
New blog entry.
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
3180. CaneWarning
2:39 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
NEW BLOG
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
3179. canesrule1
2:39 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST THU AUG 13 2009

...DEPRESSION REMAINS WEAK AND POORLY ORGANIZED...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.6 WEST OR ABOUT
885 MILES...1425 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HR. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERTSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION...AND IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES THE SYSTEM COULD DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
AREA LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.0N 37.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

NNNN
3177. Twinkster
2:38 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor2&zoom=&tim e=

just look at 850mb 7ooMB and 500MB vorticity 90L is very well stacked and has strong vorticity if this keeps up code red at 2 and TD 03 soon within the next 2 advisories after that.
Member Since: June 7, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 962
3176. reedzone
2:38 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
WAIT.. I just checked the Vorticity map, there's no vorticity with that wave, soo yeah.. unless things pop up really fast, probably a long time till we even get an invest.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
3175. largeeyes
2:38 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
Cue Monty Python "I'm not dead yet!" skit.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1462
3174. TerraNova
2:38 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HR. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERTSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION...AND IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES THE SYSTEM COULD DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE
AREA LATER TODAY
.
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
3173. canesrule1
2:38 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
Consider me impressed:
3172. usa777
2:37 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
TD2 reminds me a little of Andrew. Anyone remember when everyone said "this one looks like its not going to make it". Sneaks it a little bit different air mass and takes off. I'm not saying this will be the case on this one but you just never know with these tropical storms.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 164
3171. Patrap
2:37 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
A new entry from Dr. Masters will soon be Loaded since the TD 2 info is out
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
3170. TerraNova
2:37 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO CURRENTLY CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TOO FEW TO GET A DATA-T
NUMBER USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. SSMI/DATA AT ABOUT 09Z
SUGGESTED 25 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THAT IS USED
AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. SSM/I AND AMSR-E PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A TONGUE OF DRIER AIR HAS WRAPPED ALMOST ALL
THE WAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE DEPRESSION. THESE
FACTORS...COMBINED WITH ABOUT 15 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...MAY BE PREVENTING THE SYSTEM FROM MAINTAINING ORGANIZED
CONVECTION.
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 76 Comments: 4063
3169. reedzone
2:37 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
Quoting Patrap:


I just saw the shear map, it's under 5-10 knots of wind shear.. This may allow slow development afterall.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
3168. canesrule1
2:36 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
Quoting cg2916:
000
WTNT22 KNHC 131433
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1500 UTC THU AUG 13 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 37.6W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 37.6W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 37.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.0N 39.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.2N 41.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.4N 43.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.8N 46.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 52.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 18.5N 59.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 37.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

The didn't discontinue it.
interesting
3167. apocalyps
2:34 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
A week from now the GOM will be one great pinnhole.TD2 will be an amazing storm.Never seen before.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 960
3166. cg2916
2:34 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
000
WTNT22 KNHC 131433
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1500 UTC THU AUG 13 2009

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 37.6W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 37.6W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 37.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.0N 39.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.2N 41.3W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.4N 43.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.8N 46.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 52.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 18.5N 59.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 22.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 37.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

The didn't discontinue it.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
3165. reedzone
2:34 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
Quoting canesrule1:
is that a current image of 02L, and if it is I am impressed.


It's the latest image on the ramsdis site.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
3164. Patrap
2:33 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
3162. canesrule1
2:33 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
Quoting Cotillion:




For 12z, 850mb.
nada
3161. OSUWXGUY
2:32 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
Quoting Cotillion:


More dry air. It'd probably just try and fire convection if you threw water on it...

Reverse zombies!


So it's more like a Gremlin then? Scary!
3160. Cotillion
2:32 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
Quoting Buhdog:
I am with patrap...

I see 2 new swirls... Bahammas and right off the swfl coast. anyone have a current vorticity map handy?




For 12z, 850mb.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
3159. Patrap
2:32 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
Quoting hurricanehanna:
Hep Pat - what is your take on the spin in the GOM ?



Just a AOI for now,as its in a Favored spot and some energy is on the way in that Gen Direction too
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
3158. canesrule1
2:32 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
Quoting reedzone:


It's not over yet... Notice the burst of convection, it's getting a bit bigger.
is that a current image of 02L, and if it is I am impressed.
3157. Buhdog
2:31 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
I am with patrap...

I see 2 new swirls... Bahammas and right off the swfl coast. anyone have a current vorticity map handy?
Member Since: July 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 960
3156. Patrap
2:31 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
NexSat Loop of 90L exiting west
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
3155. reedzone
2:30 PM GMT on August 13, 2009


It's not over yet... Notice the burst of convection, it's getting a bit bigger.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
3154. SomeRandomTexan
2:30 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
The convection associated with the wave exending from the bahamas down through the carribean is on the increase this morning.. something to watch at least..
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1857
3153. nrtiwlnvragn
2:30 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
Quoting extreme236:
SSD has a floater on 90L in anticipation of it moving into viewing range soon.


Thats the old TD2 floater, note time stamp at the bottom.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11343
3152. canesrule1
2:30 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


So it's undead, huh?

Sounds like we might need some holy water and a wooden stake to kill it...
its half alive half dead at this hour, I might change my mind in the next two hours, lets how it holds up convection wise, and what the Nhc says at 11.
3151. stormpetrol
2:29 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
TD2 has aanother thing going for it its has picked up forward speed which will enable it outrun some the obstacles it had been encountering.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
3150. fire635
2:29 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
Any comments on the AOI north of Puerto Rico? Seems to have a decent at least mid-level circulation no?
Member Since: June 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 492
3149. hurricanehanna
2:29 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
Hep Pat - what is your take on the spin in the GOM ?
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3488
3148. apocalyps
2:29 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
TD2 is a Texas hit and 90L is a Florida hit.
Everyone will be happy,lol.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 960
3147. Cotillion
2:29 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


So it's undead, huh?

Sounds like we might need some holy water and a wooden stake to kill it...


More dry air. It'd probably just try and fire convection if you threw water on it...

Reverse zombies!
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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