TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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3756. CycloneOz
7:50 PM GMT on August 13, 2009
CycloneOz - Lurk Mode=On

No telling when I'll turn it off. Find me and my videos / animations on YouTube.

Best Wishes everyone! :)

CycloneOz - Out...

/lurk mode now on
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3616
3753. juniort
3:18 AM GMT on August 13, 2009
Thank you ineedwind
Member Since: July 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 69
3752. CaicosRetiredSailor
4:39 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
...
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5995
3751. ineedwind
4:18 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Quoting juniort:
How does TD2 look in terms of effecting the eastern caribbean


Looking at the dry air/SAL, TD2 will be dealing with it for at least the next 48 hours. During this time it will most likely continue on a w/sw coarse until it can find some moisture. If it does affect the Carribean, I don't think it will be much of a storm. Maybe a small TS.
3749. juniort
3:05 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
How does TD2 look in terms of effecting the eastern caribbean
Member Since: July 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 69
3747. hurricanejunky
2:57 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Ana tomorrow?

000
WTNT32 KNHC 121442
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009
1100 AM AST WED AUG 12 2009

...DEPRESSION REMAINING JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.8 WEST OR ABOUT 630 MILES...1015 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.3N 33.8W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
3746. gwadaman
2:54 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Quoting cirrocumulus:
Drak,
Did you see the spin near 42 11?



Morning All, been watching that all morning, could play a roll in the future of our TD
Member Since: July 8, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 147
3745. hurricanejunky
2:52 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Quoting CycloneOz:


What an opportunity for any system that can make it inside.

Use any metaphor you like to describe it!

Bull in a china shop.
Kid in a candy store.
etc....

Think Charley!
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
3744. SomeRandomTexan
2:50 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Link


Thanks
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1837
3743. hurricanejunky
2:44 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Quoting reedzone:
No Tropical Storm yet, basically because the depression is getting some easterly shear which is why the center is exposed.

I thought shear was really low around TD2 and dry air / SAL was affecting it?
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
3742. hurricanejunky
2:42 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Quoting Drakoen:
TD2's low is nearly exposed


How long does it look like SAL will keep affecting it?
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
3741. cg2916
2:28 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
New blog.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3032
3740. wunderkidcayman
2:26 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
ok guy this is what I think TD2 pre-TS ana has moved SW so the models will trend westward and if it trends this way for the next day and a half to two days it could poss. be a caribbean system
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
3739. gator23
2:24 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Way too early to tell. This system does not exist yet. Low low low low confidence
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2162
3737. Stormchaser2007
2:22 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Quoting redwagon:
Stormchaser2007, or anybody, would you see the CMC system recurving off to the LEFT at landfall?


Its possible

Its not worth analyzing too much because it will likely be gone by the next run.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
3736. gator23
2:22 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I have another word for it but I dont wanna get banned. How powerful, category? is that showing? New to the models.

well it is tracking a storm that doesnt exist yet. And it is currently the only model forecasting this scenario. Low confidence.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2162
3735. cg2916
2:22 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Quoting BeanTech:


"...touch actin' Tinactin"

Hey, BeanTech. I was referring to when someone gets hit really hard. BOOM! This is hit catchphrase: "(Mumbles uncontrollably) Brett Favre (Keeps Mumbling) BOOM!"
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3032
3734. SeniorPoppy
2:22 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
The long range models are just used for some low confidence guidance. Way too early to tell where TD-2 will be in 4-5 days. The general trend has been west with a trickle of some wsw movement as of late.
Member Since: August 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 497
3733. cirrocumulus
2:21 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Stormchaser2007: It looks like rain patterns are moving into South Texas finally.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
3732. AussieStorm
2:21 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Quoting Cotillion:


They're all in supermarkets these days. Was a cow in some Irish supermarket running around before it ran back out. A funny video.

Think it was a cow anyway.

Cow's as in over sized women or cows in a can?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15893
3731. homelesswanderer
2:21 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
New Blog
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
3730. PSL2007
2:20 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Strong Hurricane....maybe a Category 2.

Its not worth analyzing too much because it will likely be gone by the next run.


You are so right, lol.
3729. iluvjess
2:20 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Quoting mobilegirl81:
TD2 is going to stay on a due west or just south of west track becuase it is weak. We might be dealing with Ana before Bill. There is no way it will recurve that weak.


How would we not be dealing with Anna before Bill? LOL
3728. FLWeatherFreak91
2:20 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
NHC will not upgrade to Ana at 11. Their reasoning is an excess of southeasterly shear.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3619
3727. AussieStorm
2:20 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
CMC
144 hours

For lack of a better word...

Boom.


is that 993mb at the center???
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15893
3726. Stormchaser2007
2:20 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Quoting homelesswanderer:


I have another word for it but I dont wanna get banned. How powerful, category? is that showing? New to the models.


Strong Hurricane....maybe a Category 2.

Its not worth analyzing too much because it will likely be gone by the next run.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
3723. mobilegirl81
2:18 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
TD2 is going to stay on a due west or just south of west track becuase it is weak. We might be dealing with Ana before Bill. There is no way it will recurve that weak.
Member Since: August 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 833
3722. Cotillion
2:18 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Quoting AussieStorm:

Bull in a china shop was busted on Mythbusters. they are actually very careful in close con-finds.


They're all in supermarkets these days. Was a cow in some Irish supermarket running around before it ran back out. A funny video.

Think it was a cow anyway.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
3721. redwagon
2:18 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Stormchaser2007, or anybody, would you see the CMC system recurving off to the LEFT at landfall?
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3091
3720. homelesswanderer
2:17 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
CMC
144 hours

For lack of a better word...

Boom.



I have another word for it but I dont wanna get banned. How powerful, category? is that showing? New to the models.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
3719. AussieStorm
2:17 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Quoting CycloneOz:


What an opportunity for any system that can make it inside.

Use any metaphor you like to describe it!

Bull in a china shop.
Kid in a candy store.
etc....

Bull in a china shop was busted on Mythbusters. they are actually very careful in close con-finds.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15893
3718. Twinkster
2:15 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Quoting mobilegirl81:
The GFS is taking a strong hurricane further east today. Any chance it would reconfigure west again?



yes it is still about 10-12 days waya it will change severaql times lol
Member Since: June 7, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 937
3717. AussieStorm
2:15 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Quoting Cotillion:


Al Gore did it!

OMG LOL
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15893
3716. cirrocumulus
2:15 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Yes but development not expected.

Drak, thanks. Nevertheless, the water vapor loop shows that pre-Ana is going to move near an area of deep moisture, from this area, soon.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
3715. kmanislander
2:14 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Current steering is to the WSW until near 50W then switches to WNW.

A new burst of deep convection near the COC could signal the move to TS status.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15687
3713. Drakoen
2:14 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Quoting stoormfury:
DRAK
i notice a WSW movement wih TD2. is it as a result of the LLC to it's southwest? if that is the case then the models will shift to the left in their next run


UKMET, GFS, and CMC predict that a WSW dip may occur. These models are on the southern portion of the guidance envelope.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29864
3712. cg2916
2:14 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
CMC
144 hours

For lack of a better word...

Boom.


Are you John Madden? Lol.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3032
3711. BayouBorn1965
2:14 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Quoting gator23:
Yes very Likely as model forecasts this far out are pretty low confidence.


Normally don't get crazy until it is out in the Gulf of Mexico. Even with early news of Katrina headed into Florida, we left town for a family visit . . . . only to turn around when we heard the latest advisory had Katrina bombing the Mississippi Gulf Coast, which it did.
Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 74
3709. Stormchaser2007
2:13 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
CMC
144 hours

For lack of a better word...

Boom.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
3708. StormChaser81
2:13 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
TD2 also looks like it has gained some forward speed.
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
3707. stoormfury
2:12 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
DRAK
i notice a WSW movement wih TD2. is it as a result of the LLC to it's southwest? if that is the case then the models will shift to the left in their next run
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2574
3706. gator23
2:12 PM GMT on August 12, 2009
Quoting mobilegirl81:
The GFS is taking a strong hurricane further east today. Any chance it would reconfigure west again?

Its possible as forecasts 7 days out are pretty low confidence.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2162

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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