TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Quoting fmbill:
12z NAM

51w wave to become a closed circulation?


It has been hinting towards that for the last couple runs... the only difference this time... is that is taking it right through Greater Antilles instead of N of them.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5030
Quoting marknmelb:
Ok is the storm the models show hitting Florida in 11-12 days TD#2 or what's behind TD#2 ???


It's the area behind TD#2.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Scan complete with no viruses.

NAM 12Z takes the wave near 53W to just south of PR in 60 hours....



Hmmmm...is that a closed circulation I see?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
152. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:


Won't let me go into safe mode


I'd have to take that in to a tech.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Scan complete with no viruses.

NAM 12Z takes the wave near 53W to just south of PR in 60 hours....



Not very strong.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


Won't let me go into safe mode


Time to reboot the computer.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Hi, sorry to post this picture, but I'm trying to get your attention. Everybody ignored my last post!

Why is it so unlikely that something like this happen again?

Here in New England this is the one that we remember. There is a lot of timber (still!) on hillsides (underneath new growth, of course) that was blown down by this storm.

I ask this because the early TD2 track looks like this. And no, I'm not wishcasting, I realize that there's a very small probability of such a storm happening out of this system.

But WHY? I'm not a meterologist.

Thanks for your help.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SouthALWX:
I think If Doc M REALLY wanted comments to stop he'd disable them. He's covering his own, which is exactly what he should do. As of now it's a post at your own risk scenario if you have good virus protection as well as follow easy rules... don't click links being the premier... you should be ok. If you don't have virus protection don't be on the interhole =P Btw drak im not saying you did click on one =P Check Urls too ... www.nhc.noaa.gov etc .. if ur not sure where it leads, just ask someone you trust =] Many of us will be glad to verify the validity of the URL.



Exactly
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
Malwarebytes is a great program...but doesn't have automatic updates and I don't think it runs on real-time. I update it once a week.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


Won't let me go into safe mode


Ouch...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As long as you have a decent anti virus program there is no need to worry.

I have a special commercial version of McAfee from my company so Im pretty well protected.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
143. IKE
Scan complete with no viruses.

NAM 12Z takes the wave near 53W to just south of PR in 60 hours....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting caneluver:


Why would that be a moronic statement moron? I live on the east coast and must say a-lot of people on edge.


wow...up to name calling already this early in the new blog...have a feeling alot of individuals will be banned this season as it heats up...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting caneluver:


Why would that be a moronic statement moron? I live on the east coast and must say a-lot of people on edge.


I live on the east coast too. The eventual path of 99 and the next wave willl ultimately be determined by the westerlies and the constant east to west shifting of the Bermuda High. Its all timing. The Gulf is just as susceptible to these next few systems as the east coast is. If the Bermuda High is a little stronger than what the GFS is showing late next week and that trough is a day or two later than what is forecast, then it becomes a south Florida and eventual Gulf storm.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1776
Quoting jeffs713:

start up in safe mode to edit your registry.


Won't let me go into safe mode
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
139. 7544
gfs 06 for those just waking up

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think If Doc M REALLY wanted comments to stop he'd disable them. He's covering his own, which is exactly what he should do. As of now it's a post at your own risk scenario if you have good virus protection as well as follow easy rules... don't click links being the premier... you should be ok. If you don't have virus protection don't be on the interhole =P Btw drak im not saying you did click on one =P Check Urls too ... www.nhc.noaa.gov etc .. if ur not sure where it leads, just ask someone you trust =] Many of us will be glad to verify the validity of the URL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12z NAM

51w wave to become a closed circulation?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting leftovers:
td should be a hurricane n.e of puerto rico i will bet a buck on that.


Please donate your extra bucks at http://www.Portlight.org!

Helping those in need is not only the right thing to do, it makes you feel good, too!
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3892
Quoting Drakoen:
The virus won't let me access my computer's registry :(


Drak... boot into Safe Mode. There you can use "MSCONFIG" to turn OFF all registry based loading app during start up and do what you gotta do... assuming you can't do what you need to do in Safe Mode (such as cleaning, etc...).
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5030
Maybe I wasn't infected because I have all popups turned off.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting P451:


I think he might be and I've never seen two systems moving in a "train" so to speak ever engage in that effect. I've seen slingshots - we saw Felicia slingshot Enrique a little.

I don't know if TD2 and "Bill Wave" are close enough to perform a slingshot.

I think TD2 will continue a bit north of West and then maybe curve NW in 3-5 days and that would allow the "bill wave" to just head west underneath it.

I don't see how they could interact.

TD2, if it goes a little WSW would be responding to the general steering currents - not to the "bill wave".


I see what you're saying. I wasn't sure what the distance criteria was. It just seems to look like it when you play out the model run.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That's it, I am downloading Microsoft security essentials now!

Now I definitely won't get infected
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting fmbill:
That's it!!!

So...what do you think? Is that the reason for the curve southward?


Could be but we do not have two systems yet, the High might be building and getting stronger that would also push a system South.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
The virus won't let me access my computer's registry :(

start up in safe mode to edit your registry.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5890
Quoting SQUAWK:


Drak, what anit-virus software were you running at the time?


Avira
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Its repositioned to TD2.

We'll have to wait


OK thanks Storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
126. IKE
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

RE:
All I did was click a page link to go back to a previous page and that's when it happened.
You CANNOT get a virus from reading a blog.




Please Read and RE-read the following:

2025. thelmores 10:10 PM EDT on August 10, 2009 Hide this comment.
WIN-ANTIVIRUS, and variants are what I call "scare-ware"..... the virus will "spoof" itself as being an antivirus program, showing that you are infected with many viri.... but it actually is the virus.

The creators have gotten very creative, by placing the enable button behind anywhere you can click. Once the "pop-up" comes up, if you click on anything, you are basically screwed.

If you start getting "tons" of pop-ups, warning of Viri....... you are infected.....

once again, to remove, use this free program....

http://download.cnet.com/Malwarebytes-Anti-Malware/3000-8022_4-10804572.html

download, install, update, and do a QUICK scan.... this will get rid of the virus.

As far as where it came from, I would like just 10-minutes in a room with the virus writer! Introduce them to redneck justice! LOL
---------

Again:

The creators have gotten very creative, by placing the enable button behind anywhere you can click. Once the "pop-up" comes up, if you click on anything, you are basically screwed.




I'm running that right now.

I downloaded it last night. First run had viruses show up. Removed them and smooth sailing since.

But...I had zero computer problems before running the scan.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
The virus won't let me access my computer's registry :(


Drak, what anit-virus software were you running at the time?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
114.

Thanks for that information.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
Ok is the storm the models show hitting Florida in 11-12 days TD#2 or what's behind TD#2 ???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
sporteguy03...That's it!!!

So...what do you think? Is that the reason for the curve southward?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

Lol. Imagine if if it comes no where near there.

I know! They get everyone in the whole state in a frenzy though. I, personally, don't bank on anything until it is within three days. I have seen way too man storms change complete paths till that point.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
118. IKE
I'm running a scan now with no viruses, so far.

Quoting Drakoen:
The virus won't let me access my computer's registry :(


Sorry for what you're going through. That would tick me off.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
The virus won't let me access my computer's registry :(


Do you think you may have to take your PC to get fixed somewhere? Or can you do it yourself?
I know we have a tech place around here and they only charge around 80 bucks which isnt bad considering. Maybe try calling around for prices if you cant fix the computer yourself. I know it sucks..
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
Quoting KYhomeboy:
Anyone have the RAMSDIS link for a satellite loop of the far east atlantic/ African coast??


Its repositioned to TD2.

We'll have to wait
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15946
Quoting iluvjess:
Based on historical analysis, TD #2 should curve out to sea and not be any threat to the CONUS. The models seem to agree.
\

GFS hits florida
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

RE:
All I did was click a page link to go back to a previous page and that's when it happened.
You CANNOT get a virus from reading a blog.




Please Read and RE-read the following:

2025. thelmores 10:10 PM EDT on August 10, 2009 Hide this comment.
WIN-ANTIVIRUS, and variants are what I call "scare-ware"..... the virus will "spoof" itself as being an antivirus program, showing that you are infected with many viri.... but it actually is the virus.

The creators have gotten very creative, by placing the enable button behind anywhere you can click. Once the "pop-up" comes up, if you click on anything, you are basically screwed.

If you start getting "tons" of pop-ups, warning of Viri....... you are infected.....

once again, to remove, use this free program....

http://download.cnet.com/Malwarebytes-Anti-Malware/3000-8022_4-10804572.html

download, install, update, and do a QUICK scan.... this will get rid of the virus.

As far as where it came from, I would like just 10-minutes in a room with the virus writer! Introduce them to redneck justice! LOL
---------

Again:

The creators have gotten very creative, by placing the enable button behind anywhere you can click. Once the "pop-up" comes up, if you click on anything, you are basically screwed.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone have the RAMSDIS link for a satellite loop of the far east atlantic/ African coast??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Never gets above Tropical Storm
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1776
best combo Malwarebytes and AVG anti virus.

Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
Quoting TreasureCoastFl:

I don't know why I waited so long. Worth every penny and no virus worries at all!


if you have a pc, just get AV Norton blocks everything...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Based on historical analysis, TD #2 should curve out to sea and not be any threat to the CONUS. The models seem to agree.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The virus won't let me access my computer's registry :(
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30615
Quoting fmbill:


Bill are you talking about Fuijiwara effect?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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