TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Not buying the southern solution yet:

THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH BUT STILL LIES NORTH AND EAST OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Way south of the official.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15923
funny...he made such a production of telling everyone he had me on ignore....ROTFL!!
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Quoting presslord:
yea Drak...ya wanna be sure to follow the technology advoce of the Canadian soap salesman...


Ouch! :)
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Quoting ssmate:

I'm a memeber and still got it.


use firefox addon adblock plus
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Quoting ssmate:

I'm a memeber and still got it.


then it must not be from a google ad, then.
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TD2 firing convection on the west side.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
From 11am advisory:

THE SYSTEM COULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTH BY DAY 5 THAT IT BEGINS TO FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INDICATES SOME WEAKENING BY THEN.
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99L as most veterans know,..has formed way east and way High in Lat,..a good percentage of Invests/Depression follow the ridge axis wnw then Nw then N to NNE thru time as the steering flows.
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Quoting presslord:
yea Drak...ya wanna be sure to follow the technology advoce of the Canadian soap salesman...


Ahhh its good to see the TS is awake :)
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Quoting rwdobson:
If the virus came from a google ad, which does happen, there's a simple solution: join wunderground, and then you don't get any ads.

In fact, a couple weeks ago one of my co-workers got a virus from wunderground, from an ad...but since i'm a member, no ads, no viruses.

I'm a memeber and still got it.
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For anyone who doesn't want to get infected

I recommend you download this AV from microsoft. It has been tested from numerous experts, and it is one of the most effective out there. The interesting thing is that it is completely free; it is much better than crappy windows defender. The product is not yet released, and beta versions are available. The sad thing is, many small antivirus companies would not be able to compete with this.

MS Security essentials video

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191. MahFL
Don't buy Norton AV, it's terrible "bloatware".
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3578
Quoting fmbill:


Gees...I feel bad everytime is see a system go to Hispaniola. Those poor folks have certainly protected Florida a number of times...but at an incredible cost :-(


Indeed... I have quite a bit of Family members in Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico... so like any other place I prefer this system nor "B" affects these Islands specially DR due to its geographic features and building codes.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4978
If you think you have a virus, Malwarebyte's Antimalware is the best program out there for removing it.

http://www.malwarebytes.org/mbam.php

If you can't boot into safe mode, then your computer's registry has most likely been damaged.
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After looking healthy yesterday the Barbados wave is looking pretty anemic today. Having said that 99L looked the same just before becoming a depression...
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I've never had a problem with McAfee - scan once a day - so far no viri
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Quoting Floodman:


Also slows your PC by 40%; all in all a wonderful product...LOL


Hey floodman.
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This cant be good.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15923
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


if you have a pc, just get AV Norton blocks everything...


Also slows your PC by 40%; all in all a wonderful product...LOL
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yea Drak...ya wanna be sure to follow the technology advoce of the Canadian soap salesman...
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149.. quaqua... I don't believe that path can't happen... it is possible as long as the Bermuda high weakens enough on the W side to allow re curvature and then maintain its strength to allow a similar scenario to occur... this is of course a high level overview of key ingredients.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4978
first post here. I am a frustrated meteorologist. See that this year begin a little late,although we already have 1 depresion in May. Posibilities t2 affect caribbean island?
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Could one of these storms be the catalyst to break the Texas drought? Beulah in 1967 developed off the African coast and became a hurricane in the eastern Caribbean Sea on the 8th. From September 10th to 13th it weakened greatly and was downgraded to a tropical storm. However, on the 14th, it regained hurricane status again, turned toward the northwest and headed for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. It made landfall at Cozumel on the 16th, and entered the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on the 17th. On the l9th, it intensified, and reconnaissance aircraft recorded a central pressure of 920 mb or 27.17 inches. It continued moving northwest and made landfall between Brownsville, TX and the mouth of the Rio Grande about daybreak on September 20. A ship at anchor in Port Brownsville reported winds of 136 mph. Beulah's strength was seen in the impact the storm's surge had along Padre Island, Texas. A total of 31 cuts were observed through the island in the portion extending south from a point 30 miles south of Corpus Christi, Texas. A cut is a new channel through a barrier island. The storm surge was found to have reached a height of at least 18 feet. Torrential rains fell in southern Texas, with amounts ranging from 10 to 20 inches. Beulah also spawned an unsurpassed number of tornadoes, but most were small and occurred in rural areas. The death toll from Beulah reached 15 in Texas -- 5 from tornadoes and 10 from flooding. Damage is estimated at about $900 million in 1990 dollars.

Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
Quoting leftovers:
looks like the waves really have not stepped up to the plate yet. but all is needed near florida is a strong wave. could be a home run then

What I need here is rain. There is a severe drought and they are arresting people for washing cars, watering lawns etc.
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Holding above 3.0. Wondering if this suggests we may end up seeing an uptick in the TAFB and SAB estimates later.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 141500 UTC
Lat : 14:28:22 N Lon : 29:22:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.7 /1010.8mb/ 27.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
1.7 1.9 3.1

Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
If the virus came from a google ad, which does happen, there's a simple solution: join wunderground, and then you don't get any ads.

In fact, a couple weeks ago one of my co-workers got a virus from wunderground, from an ad...but since i'm a member, no ads, no viruses.
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----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 141500 UTC
Lat : 14:28:22 N Lon : 29:22:48 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.7 /1010.8mb/ 27.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
1.7 1.9 3.1

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -1.4C Cloud Region Temp : -28.1C
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Let it go already... Drak, take it to a computer geek and get it fixed.
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Quoting guaguapichincha:
Hi, sorry to post this picture, but I'm trying to get your attention. Everybody ignored my last post!

Why is it so unlikely that something like this happen again?

Here in New England this is the one that we remember. There is a lot of timber (still!) on hillsides (underneath new growth, of course) that was blown down by this storm.

I ask this because the early TD2 track looks like this. And no, I'm not wishcasting, I realize that there's a very small probability of such a storm happening out of this system.

But WHY? I'm not a meterologist.

Thanks for your help.



The flow needs to be South to North with the Jet Stream not impossible, you need a front to pull a system up like that. Most of the time a trough or front will push a system like that out to sea because of its oreintation. At least from my understanding.
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I managed to try to get into some form of safe mode. I'm not try and manually fix it and see what happens.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30578
Quoting WxLogic:


It has been hinting towards that for the last couple runs... the only difference this time... is that is taking it right through Greater Antilles instead of N of them.


Gees...I feel bad everytime is see a system go to Hispaniola. Those poor folks have certainly protected Florida a number of times...but at an incredible cost :-(
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Ouch...


Drak, do you have another computer ? This from web:


Take the drive out, and attach it to another XP system that has up-to-date
virus protection. Scan the drive there, with the installed AV and with the
TrendMicro housecall online scanner (housecall.trendmicro.com). Because
the drive hasn't been booted, none of the trojans will be active and you
should have complete access to removing them.

Clear out all the temp folders and browser caches, as these are the usual
places for malware to enter. While it's attached, turn off System Restore
on that drive as the restore points are likely infected.

Also, delete the swapfile and hibernation files (if that was on) in the
root; these will be rebuilt, and this can sometimes help with this kind of
problem.

Empty the recycle bin.

You can clear these folders prior to the A/V scan, as this will reduce the
scanning time.

Finally you can edit the boot.ini and remove the /safeboot switch.

You may wish to defragment the drive while it's in the other system, as
well.

Then, you can put the drive back in and try to restart the system. Also,
try booting to Last Known Good if needed. You may get "file not found"
error messages at first - this would be a good sign that you removed the
infections, and just have to find the references that launch them.

Once you're in, run HijackThis to see if there's anything else to do.
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Quoting acCane08:


It's the area behind TD#2.


Thanks.
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The virus was encoded in a Google ad banner,as Im 87.8675 percent sure of it.
If not,well then tar and feather my IT Guy and a DoD pentagon IT guy.

No one clicked anything here,as the problem first arose soon after the Saturday Posting of a new Blog here,Sat Aug 8th.

Go there and look at comment number 36,.


Here is the ad in Http form that was found,this is from savannahstorm's post at 2436 from the last entry,at 11:08 pm CDT last night.


Quoting SavannahStorm:
I'm going to copy and paste the attack info from my filter log so we know where they are coming from. These are the two I am constantly getting. Whatever you do, do not try to follow these links, as they are probably the source of the attack. I am only posting these so you know what links to watch out for.:

Security Error: Content at http://googleads.g.doubleclick.net/ may not load data from http://ads.technoratimedia.com/ads/get.cfm?urlChecker=http://&zoneIdentifier= DFA400577B659FC7&showFr ameID=717B0991E62A476DB4CEEB01A44F904A.

and

Security Error: Content at http://googleads.g.doubleclick.net/ may not load data from http://cdn4.specificclick.net/img/?ag=1&pb=6154&pg=887650680644719194&us= cy89iorvHItQ7C&rnd=711565.




What is also disappointing,I saved the code in my wu-mail at Midnight in case it was removed,for legal reasons,..and that wu-mail to myself has been deleted.



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Drak, you can disable the virus from staring in the start-up manually.

go to Run

type "msconfig"

go under the the start up tab, and uncheck unwanted programs and potential malware
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Quoting Drakoen:


Won't let me go into safe mode

Try:
Windows XP

If Windows XP is the only operating system installed on your computer, booting into Safe Mode with these instructions.

-If the computer is running, shut down Windows, and then turn off the power
-Wait 30 seconds, and then turn the computer on.
-Start tapping the F8 key. The Windows Advanced Options Menu appears. If you begin tapping the F8 key too soon, some computers display a "keyboard error" message. To resolve this, restart the computer and try again.
-Ensure that the Safe mode option is selected.
-Press Enter. The computer then begins to start in Safe mode.
-When you are finished with all troubleshooting, close all programs and restart the computer as you normally would.

(this also works for Vista)
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159. IKE
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Ike I WAS RIGHT!!!!

i was Posting Posts at 1 am saying it was a Comeback

I wake up and i see a td

What else did i miss?


Wave at 53W....blob coming off Africa.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting CaneWarning:


Not very strong.


Its about the track not the strength.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15923
For those who have had problems...in the past when I got a similar virus, the people at bleepingcomputer.com were very helpful. Basically they will guide you through what you need to do to clean up your system, for free as a public service. Give them a try if you're having trouble cleaning up your machine.
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Quoting fmbill:
12z NAM

51w wave to become a closed circulation?


It has been hinting towards that for the last couple runs... the only difference this time... is that is taking it right through Greater Antilles instead of N of them.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4978

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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