TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Disturbance between 50 and 55 has some increase in heavier convection and the struture seems to have improved some. Clear cyclonic turning on visible imagery. Link
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
They seem to think the 50 W wave will be the next one.



With the GFDL on board how do you not pay a little bit of attention? With probs like that and model support I bet we have an invest later today or tomorrow.
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Sheesh,its pointless saying its going here or there,way,way too early
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Quoting JamesGalloway:
Drak,

I have had very good luck with a program called Malwarebytes. If the virus will let you go to the website, it's www.malwarebytes.org. You can download the free version. I've cleaned several computers with it.

Hope this helps.


I'm going to save that program on a CD and then run it on my main computer
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Quoting Floodman:


I'm good...now about this engagement thing...LOL

Congrats, my friend!


LOL thanks
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Quoting hahaguy:


Pretty good , just got engaged. How about you?


I'm good...now about this engagement thing...LOL

Congrats, my friend!
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They seem to think the 50 W wave will be the next one.

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247. IKE
Yellow circle near 60W will be dropped...soon.

Wave at 53W appears headed for the northern islands...PR...DR...Haiti...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
SAL has weakened.

that next wave coming off Africa is pretty large. gonna be very interesting to see if it blows up in the next few days like the GFS is predicting.
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Elena is a prime example of how fast steering can change.
Elena was a Cat 3 I believe at Landfall and we experienced her full Fury in Long Beach,Gulfport ,Miss.

A Night Storm that had eye landfall at Dawn,we had about a Half Hour in a Clear eye.

The Seabee Base in Long Beach had to roll out a couple of amtraks during the eye to evacuate Shelter residents at a High School there.A Tornado,in close to the forward side of the Hurricane,came down and just skipped over our Apt,and landed right on the Shelter,a Gym..and peeled the roof off like a can opener.

A true testament of Fate.No one was injured fortunately in the incident.

Also of note,..as the backside approached,we could hear the roar of the Eyewall approaching as we saw the curved structure approaching,and her BAckside was as strong and the front.
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haha...be afraid...be very afraid...
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Date line error:



Remember Ioke in 2006 had the same problem.
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


And there it is. The CPAC generates a named storm before the Atlantic.


Actually their second one this year LOL
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Quoting presslord:



Oh no!!! It's not too late yet!!! You can still run...


Oh dont scare him! LOL... we arent THAT bad ;) Some of us anyway.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
Quoting extreme236:
TROPICAL STORM MAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012009
500 AM HST TUE AUG 11 2009


And there it is. The CPAC generates a named storm before the Atlantic.
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Quoting JamesGalloway:
Drak,

I have had very good luck with a program called Malwarebytes. If the virus will let you go to the website, it's www.malwarebytes.org. You can download the free version. I've cleaned several computers with it.

Hope this helps.


I second that. I've used MBAM to clear a lot of infections from my system, and it works great. if the virus doesn't let you go to that site, use another computer to download the setup file to a USB device and transfer that to your infected one.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Hey Extreme..

I got Off at 1..

What Happend Last Night?

It was Re-Fireing convection when i got off...


Convection became thin earlier this morning. Refiring again in the west side now.
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Quoting presslord:



Oh no!!! It's not too late yet!!! You can still run...


LMAO.
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Quoting jscs:


Wow. Talk about slow news day.


Tell me about it...
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TROPICAL STORM MAKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012009
500 AM HST TUE AUG 11 2009
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Quoting hahaguy:


Pretty good , just got engaged. How about you?



Oh no!!! It's not too late yet!!! You can still run...
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There should be a rule set fourth.


NO US Mainland landfall predictions until the storm is visible here.

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Quoting guaguapichincha:
Hi, sorry to post this picture, but I'm trying to get your attention. Everybody ignored my last post!

Why is it so unlikely that something like this happen again?

Here in New England this is the one that we remember. There is a lot of timber (still!) on hillsides (underneath new growth, of course) that was blown down by this storm.

I ask this because the early TD2 track looks like this. And no, I'm not wishcasting, I realize that there's a very small probability of such a storm happening out of this system.

But WHY? I'm not a meterologist.

Thanks for your help.




Sure, its possible. Any conceivable path for TD 2 is at this point. Model errors increase exponentially with time; beyond a few days they are completely unreliable for forecasting. That is why NHC and other foecasters rely on climatology. Climatology (the cumulative history of forecast hurricane tracks) suggests that the scenario you post is possible. But is it likely? Its far too early to tell. Just keep watching. In a week you'll have a better idea.
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Quoting ssmate:


Thanks.


Also use the element hiding helper for adblock plus to block any content on a page even if it is not an ad.

Adblock plus

Element hiding helper
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Hey Guys th new advisory is out
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Updated SAL



Its really not doing too bad at keeping a lot of that dry air at bay. Sure its being effected but not as bad as it could be.
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Bout time:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082009
500 AM HST TUE AUG 11 2009

...FELICIA DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
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Drak,

I have had very good luck with a program called Malwarebytes. If the virus will let you go to the website, it's www.malwarebytes.org. You can download the free version. I've cleaned several computers with it.

Hope this helps.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
12z Nam 84hour

Looks like PR and DR get the wave currently at 51w

Also, that "blob" in the northern gulf keeps showing up.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I would never put you on ignore Press :)
Its to much fun watching you and WS to liven up the blog :)



oh...my bad....you certainly posted that you had me on ignore...I should have known better nthan to believe the playground bully...
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Quoting hahaguy:


Pretty good , just got engaged. How about you?


Aww! Congrats, thats awesome.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1240
What I need here is rain. There is a severe drought and they are arresting people for washing cars, watering lawns etc.
--------------

Where do you live again, weather?

Drought-stricken central Texan here, desperately wishcasting either wave 52 or 50 makes it here.
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Quoting Floodman:


Hey, Hahaguy...how's things?


Pretty good , just got engaged. How about you?
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Quoting hahaguy:


Hey floodman.


Hey, Hahaguy...how's things?
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Updated SAL

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Quoting futuremet:


use firefox addon adblock plus


Thanks.
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Quoting presslord:
funny...he made such a production of telling everyone he had me on ignore....ROTFL!!


I would never put you on ignore Press :)
Its to much fun watching you and WS to liven up the blog :)
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Morning all. Was just reading back a little and I see lots talking about projected paths. Way to early to tell (something has to actually form first) where anything will hit CONUS, if at all. Long term too unpredictable. Even short term is difficult to figure out. In 1985 I evacuated from Elena only to have it make a right turn and head towards S. FLA, and then a week later hunker down as it returned and went right over us in MS. No one saw that coming.

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JSL is useful for apart the strongest, coldest convection from the rest. Those two red bursts are occuring just to the NW and SW of the center. Also the coc is falling under more cloudcover.

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Not buying the southern solution yet:

THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH BUT STILL LIES NORTH AND EAST OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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