TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Quoting TexasHurricane:
We have our first Tropical Depression! Things are going to start getting busy now. Wonder what this year will bring and who will be affected.

Got this from our local:

Upper-level high pressure is currently over Southeast Texas. This high has protected Southeast Texas from the Tropics in June, July and the first week of August. Unfortunately, the high will translate toward the Southwestern U.S. by Wednesday and then weaken this weekend. Early next week, a trough of low pressure will move from the Pacific Northwest into the Rockies. The Bermuda High will strengthen and ridge into the Southeastern U.S. This will open the Gulf of Mexico for tropical systems to enter as we head into the busiest time of the season.

I figured that high wouldn't stay forever.....
So now we wait and watch.


Lol it's our second. We had one in May that didn't become Ana.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Quoting Floodman:


Happens every year though, Newx...how you been?


Flood,doing ok,have had some personal problems in my life recently,but dealing with them and trying to stay upbeat,which is easier to do if I don't watch the news.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


If my computer gets running i'm going to have to remove Avira and get another good free program. Money is tight right now and I can't afford to purchase antivirus software. Any suggestions on good free virus protectors?


AVG Anti-Virus Free Edition
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1419
Quoting cchsweatherman:


If when I express my feelings on the blogs, I'm going to get accused of drama, then I'm going to make that same accusation when others do then. Something called the Golden Rule. Treat others like you would like to be treated.


Alright, alright, alright...lets not bring the ten commandments into this.

Im certain that if you got this computer virus the first thing you would do is wright a huge 24 font in BOLD memo about it. I wouldnt throw stones here.

Moving on
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pressure is on,

Will we make it through the day 0,0,0

I say no, just because they better get cracking on the named storms to keep up with the numbers. TD2 looks like a dwarf compared to the wave behind, sheesh.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cchsweatherman:


If when I express my feelings on the blogs, I'm going to get accused of drama, then I'm going to make that same accusation when others do then. Something called the Golden Rule. Treat others like you would like to be treated.

it's gonna be ok buddy, just dump the bowl of cheerios, get a new bowl and pour some more. this happens alot
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting presslord:
KOG...greetings to you from lovely pressolina...
and to you as well press lovely day
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
Drak, AVG is probably the best free product out there; use that in conjunction with MBAM. Make sure you have an install of each on clean media in the event this thing happens again so you can jump right on it. In addition, I'll tell you what I tell my guys: run the MBAM once a week, full scan just to catch any "sleepers"...

Got to bounce for a few hours guys...keep the place running, huh?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AVG's pretty decent as free anti-viruses go.

As astronomy was mentioned the other day, a little article about something interesting to do with a planetary collision:

Link

'course it's a link, but 'tis the BBC. And didn't wanna c+p in the case of spamming up the blog...

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting extreme236:


And look who is saying its drama LOL


Yea I know. Just ignore the trolls and move on.
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Quoting Floodman:
Okay, for anyone suffering the effects of this "virus":

If it is well written it will modify any current install of the big AV products; your best bet is to use MalwareBytes. The full scan can take up to 2 hours but I have never had this product fail. Just so you know, I am the IT manager (among other things) for a medium sized business with a large number of field staff. An infection of PSI or malware such as this is devestating to my company. Since we've been using MalwareBytes we've had no major outbreaks of this sort of software.

One last word of advice: make sure you have decent AV software installed; I recommend MacAfee. Use MalwareBytes in conjunction with this software and be careful of links you click on. The malware isn't in the link itself, it's on the website, but if the page opens on the effected site it's too late. SiteManager for MacAfee is good at catching this sort of thing anda the MalwareBytes typically does not fail in cleaning the infection after it occurs

I'm doing a quick scan with MalwareBytes and its picked up 19 infections already.
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Quoting Drakoen:


LOL. I make one statement to thank everyone and that's what I get? I don't come in here will a sob story every day. Get real


And look who is saying its drama LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Look whos talking.



If when I express my feelings on the blogs, I'm going to get accused of drama, then I'm going to make that same accusation when others do then. Something called the Golden Rule. Treat others like you would like to be treated.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Look whos talking.



LOL...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Drama, drama, drama.


LOL. I make one statement to thank everyone and that's what I get? I don't come in here with a sob story every day. Get real
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


30 seconds in and it has found 130 infections LOL
thats quite a bit i beleive you may have been a selected target cyber war nobody is safe anymore

dont click links until you check

i now will scan all links before on click them safest bet
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
Quoting KYhomeboy:


Maybe not right now, but we know how that can change.


Within Seconds, lol.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


This Wave? The one in the Middle??



'Bill' wave
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Drama, drama, drama.


Look whos talking.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
30 seconds in and it has found 130 infections LOL

Wow! I'm going to go out on a limb here. But I think you had problems already that you were probably unaware of and this last was was the straw that broke the camels back. The virus/trojan you mentioned last night does not do as much damage as you seem to have. Good luck.

p.s. For some reason I can't "quote" anyone. hmmm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We have our first Tropical Depression! Things are going to start getting busy now. Wonder what this year will bring and who will be affected.

Got this from our local:

Upper-level high pressure is currently over Southeast Texas. This high has protected Southeast Texas from the Tropics in June, July and the first week of August. Unfortunately, the high will translate toward the Southwestern U.S. by Wednesday and then weaken this weekend. Early next week, a trough of low pressure will move from the Pacific Northwest into the Rockies. The Bermuda High will strengthen and ridge into the Southeastern U.S. This will open the Gulf of Mexico for tropical systems to enter as we head into the busiest time of the season.

I figured that high wouldn't stay forever.....
So now we wait and watch.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
I appreciate all the sentiments to my dilemma and the dilemma of others. Support is always a good thing


Drama, drama, drama.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


If my computer gets running i'm going to have to remove Avira and get another good free program. Money is tight right now and I can't afford to purchase antivirus software. Any suggestions on good free virus protectors?


AVG or Spybot
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
The wave doesn't have the DJM (Dr. Jeff Masters) model support though.


Maybe not right now, but we know how that can change.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


If my computer gets running i'm going to have to remove Avira and get another good free program. Money is tight right now and I can't afford to purchase antivirus software. Any suggestions on good free virus protectors?


Try getting Avast it's free and it's worked great for me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TS MAKA strech faster tomorrow could be Huricane CAT1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
KOG...greetings to you from lovely pressolina...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


30 seconds in and it has found 130 infections LOL


Yeah, but 1 virus might have 20-30 infections. Each driver, directory item, cookie, etc. gets credit for being "an infection".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NEwxguy:
Sheesh,its pointless saying its going here or there,way,way too early


Happens every year though, Newx...how you been?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:
Okay, for anyone suffering the effects of this "virus":

If it is well written it will modify any current install of the big AV products; your best bet is to use MalwareBytes. The full scan can take up to 2 hours but I have never had this product fail. Just so you know, I am the IT manager (among other things) for a medium sized business with a large number of field staff. An infection of PSI or malware such as this is devestating to my company. Since we've been using MalwareBytes we've had no major outbreaks of this sort of software.

One last word of advice: make sure you have decent AV software installed; I recommend MacAfee. Use MalwareBytes in conjunction with this software and be careful of links you click on. The malware isn't in the link itself, it's on the website, but if the page opens on the effected site it's too late. SiteManager for MacAfee is good at catching this sort of thing anda the MalwareBytes typically does not fail in cleaning the infection after it occurs


If my computer gets running i'm going to have to remove Avira and get another good free program. Money is tight right now and I can't afford to purchase antivirus software. Any suggestions on good free virus protectors?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
The wave doesn't have the DJM (Dr. Jeff Masters) model support though.


It should in about 2 days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Okay, for anyone suffering the effects of this "virus":

If it is well written it will modify any current install of the big AV products; your best bet is to use MalwareBytes. The full scan can take up to 2 hours but I have never had this product fail. Just so you know, I am the IT manager (among other things) for a medium sized business with a large number of field staff. An infection of PSI or malware such as this is devestating to my company. Since we've been using MalwareBytes we've had no major outbreaks of this sort of software.

One last word of advice: make sure you have decent AV software installed; I recommend MacAfee. Use MalwareBytes in conjunction with this software and be careful of links you click on. The malware isn't in the link itself, it's on the website, but if the page opens on the effected site it's too late. SiteManager for MacAfee is good at catching this sort of thing anda the MalwareBytes typically does not fail in cleaning the infection after it occurs
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


congrats HAHA.....dang, another good one now off the market!!

LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The wave doesn't have the DJM (Dr. Jeff Masters) model support though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:
Blog comments not recommended
I received reports last night and this morning that someone managed to post a comment on my blog containing malicious code that infected people's computers. Our tech people have not yet had a chance to check into this, so as a precaution, I recommend people not read comments on any wunderground blog until we've had a chance to check this out. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this.



Does this mean peoples individual blogs or the full blog.


Both
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I would never put you on ignore Press :)
Its to much fun watching you and WS to liven up the blog :)
thats pressolina to you
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
I appreciate all the sentiments to my dilemma and the dilemma of others. Support is always a good thing
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Blog comments not recommended
I received reports last night and this morning that someone managed to post a comment on my blog containing malicious code that infected people's computers. Our tech people have not yet had a chance to check into this, so as a precaution, I recommend people not read comments on any wunderground blog until we've had a chance to check this out. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this.



Does this mean peoples individual blogs or the full blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JamesGalloway:


That (or a USB flash drive) was going to be my solution if the malware wouldn't let you on the internet. You'll love this software.


30 seconds in and it has found 130 infections LOL
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TS MAKA

Issued at 500 AM HST TUE AUG 11 2009 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 14.2N 172.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 14.6N 173.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 15.2N 175.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 15.8N 177.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 16.5N 178.9W 55 KT 72HR VT 14/1200Z 18.1N 178.6E 60 KT 96HR VT 15/1200Z 20.1N 176.7E 60 KT 120HR VT 16/1200Z 22.4N 174.5E 65 KT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting chevycanes:
SAL has weakened.

that next wave coming off Africa is pretty large. gonna be very interesting to see if it blows up in the next few days like the GFS is predicting.

I agree. It should have a nice sweet spot. It's big but kinda a mess. It's early and probably will get it's act together quickly IMO.
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Quoting Drakoen:


I'm going to save that program on a CD and then run it on my main computer


That (or a USB flash drive) was going to be my solution if the malware wouldn't let you on the internet. You'll love this software.
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Disturbance between 50 and 55 has some increase in heavier convection and the struture seems to have improved some. Clear cyclonic turning on visible imagery. Link
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.