TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 356 - 306

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76Blog Index

356. 7544
10 day gfsx

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That is odd Patrap...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
354. IKE
Look what the GFS shows TD2 as in 24 hours. GFS is ? on intensity of systems...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting Drakoen:
I have internet access back on my main! I am still in safe mode until I get AVG installed.


Good to hear things are looking up. Way to persevere. Sounds like you'll soon be able to focus your attention back to TD2 and the tropics.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting chsweatherintern2009:
Alright guys we have something to track. Yall can ignore e all you want, but lets stop talking about the stupid virus and get to talking about the tropics. This is a tropical weather blog not a anything goes blog.
Quoting chsweatherintern2009:
Alright guys we have something to track. Yall can ignore e all you want, but lets stop talking about the stupid virus and get to talking about the tropics. This is a tropical weather blog not a anything goes blog.


You need to get a life. You know the old saying do unto others as you expect to be done yourself otherwise it does not hurt to help others out. Cause i promise if you where in the same situation you would be asking everyone to help you. So chill.

Sheri
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
02L should be back to 2.0 soon

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.7 /1010.8mb/ 27.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
1.7 1.9 3.3

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
The virus was encoded in a Google ad banner,as Im 87.8675 percent sure of it.
If not,well then tar and feather my IT Guy and a DoD pentagon IT guy.

No one clicked anything here,as the problem first arose soon after the Saturday Posting of a new Blog here,Sat Aug 8th.

Go there and look at comment number 36,.


Here is the ad in Http form that was found,this is from savannahstorm's post at 2436 from the last entry,at 11:08 pm CDT last night.






What is also disappointing,I saved the code in my wu-mail at Midnight in case it was removed,for legal reasons,..and that wu-mail to myself has been deleted.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bill wave surface low in 18 hours:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


I can see a TS out of it...I'm thinking the ECMWF may be right aiming it for the GOM.
That would suck. Just as it seems we are getting back to our normal weather patterns here, puffy clouds and scattered afternoon showers, instead of the no rain we have been in the last few years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Afraid to put a link on here anymore.

Enter at your own risk>>>>12Z GFS


i don't need to worry about it. i got a mac and thankfully it doesn't get all of the viruses.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have internet access back on my main! I am still in safe mode until I get AVG installed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
343. IKE
12Z GFS @ 12 hours picks up the 53W wave....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
342. 7544
good luck drake

now the wave at 50 w is suppose to effect so fla on this sat .
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The 12Z GFS shows some development with the Central Atlantic tropical wave within the next 12 hours. Definitely something worth watching.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nobody did I just think it is stupid that we keep talking about a stupid virus. When we have what you all have been wanting, which is a storm to track. Well we have one thatcould become a named storm and could pose a threat to someone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
339. IKE
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Aiming what to the GOM?


Wave at 53W.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting alaina1085:


Umm WOW! LOL.

Good Morning alaina
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
337. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:
I got 288 infections many of them on he registry


If I had been on when you were, I would probably be in the same boat.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting jeffs713:

You have to turn on scripts from weatherunderground.com and wxug.com to enable the ability to quote.


Thank you, Installed NoScript last night and didn't catch this one. Works now, as you can see. :)

another p.s. ran AVG, Malwarebytes, and Spybot. Found nothing. Must be doing something right. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


I can see a TS out of it...I'm thinking the ECMWF may be right aiming it for the GOM.


Aiming what to the GOM?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I got 288 infections many of them on he registry
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Alright, alright, alright...lets not bring the ten commandments into this.

Im certain that if you got this computer virus the first thing you would do is wright a huge 24 font in BOLD memo about it. I wouldnt throw stones here.

Moving on


Got some techy friends who I would ask to help me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What is the site to download the MalwareBytes ?

Sheri
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
331. IKE
Quoting caneswatch:


do you have a link for the gfs?


Afraid to put a link on here anymore.

Enter at your own risk>>>>12Z GFS
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Lol it's our second. We had one in May that didn't become Ana.


LOL, that is funny - totally forgot about that one. Sorry....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting chsweatherintern2009:
Alright guys we have something to track. Yall can ignore e all you want, but lets stop talking about the stupid virus and get to talking about the tropics. This is a tropical weather blog not a anything goes blog.


Who appointed you to moderator?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting caneswatch:


do you have a link for the gfs?


Model Analyses and Forecasts
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
326. IKE
Quoting KYhomeboy:


Think wave at 53 may be one of those sleepers. Sure in improving on the visible.


I can see a TS out of it...I'm thinking the ECMWF may be right aiming it for the GOM.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting sammywammybamy:
HahaGuy Rember this??



Yep
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
GFS has started.

I downloaded that MalwareBytes last night...ran a full scan and got over 300 infections which are now gone.



do you have a link for the gfs?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Alright guys we have something to track. Yall can ignore e all you want, but lets stop talking about the stupid virus and get to talking about the tropics. This is a tropical weather blog not a anything goes blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Problem I've had with AVG...it slo-w-s my computer down....

New 12Z GFS should be starting momentarily.

Convection appears to be firing over the wave at...53W...looking for 90L....


Think wave at 53 may be one of those sleepers. Sure in improving on the visible.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
321. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:


Damn!


I was shocked.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
12z GFs at 00z hrs intialized TD2 850 vort much further south than 6z Gfs at 6 hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
GFS has started.

I downloaded that MalwareBytes last night...ran a full scan and got over 300 infections.


I ran a scan and didn't get a thing. I wasn't on for the page that it was posted, but the next one. I only put it up to 50 comments per page.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24552
Quoting IKE:
GFS has started.

I downloaded that MalwareBytes last night...ran a full scan and got over 300 infections.


Damn!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
More tech news.


Epicenter The Business of Tech
You Deleted Your Cookies? Think Again


More than half of the internet%u2019s top websites use a little known capability of Adobe%u2019s Flash plugin to track users and store information about them, but only four of them mention the so-called Flash Cookies in their privacy policies, UC Berkeley researchers reported Monday.

Unlike traditional browser cookies, Flash cookies are relatively unknown to web users, and they are not controlled through the cookie privacy controls in a browser. That means even if a user thinks they have cleared their computer of tracking objects, they most likely have not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

6 min scan.... 29 infections
2x Disabled.SecurityCenter
1x Trojan.Adware
1x Malware.Trace
1x Trojan.FBrowsingAdvisor


Umm WOW! LOL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:
30 seconds in and it has found 130 infections LOL

Wow! I'm going to go out on a limb here. But I think you had problems already that you were probably unaware of and this last was was the straw that broke the camels back. The virus/trojan you mentioned last night does not do as much damage as you seem to have. Good luck.

p.s. For some reason I can't "quote" anyone. hmmm

You have to turn on scripts from weatherunderground.com and wxug.com to enable the ability to quote.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
314. IKE
GFS has started.

I downloaded that MalwareBytes last night...ran a full scan and got over 300 infections which are now gone.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
GFDL develops the 52 W wave in the keys and moves it into the GOM.

The Bill wave becomes a hurricane in 114 hours on it. Its not even run on it. I cant imagine what the real strength would be if it was actually ran on it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

I'm doing a quick scan with MalwareBytes and its picked up 19 infections already.

6 min scan.... 29 infections
2x Disabled.SecurityCenter
1x Trojan.Adware
1x Malware.Trace
1x Trojan.FBrowsingAdvisor
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My laptop has AVG and it's doing great so I will probably download that one if I get things up and running again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
307. IKE
Problem I've had with AVG...it slo-w-s my computer down....

New 12Z GFS should be starting momentarily.

Convection appears to be firing over the wave at...53W...looking for 90L....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting TexasHurricane:
We have our first Tropical Depression! Things are going to start getting busy now. Wonder what this year will bring and who will be affected.

Got this from our local:

Upper-level high pressure is currently over Southeast Texas. This high has protected Southeast Texas from the Tropics in June, July and the first week of August. Unfortunately, the high will translate toward the Southwestern U.S. by Wednesday and then weaken this weekend. Early next week, a trough of low pressure will move from the Pacific Northwest into the Rockies. The Bermuda High will strengthen and ridge into the Southeastern U.S. This will open the Gulf of Mexico for tropical systems to enter as we head into the busiest time of the season.

I figured that high wouldn't stay forever.....
So now we wait and watch.


Lol it's our second. We had one in May that didn't become Ana.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24552

Viewing: 356 - 306

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
28 °F
Overcast