TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Holy tropical Fujiwara effect Batman!

Bill eats Claudette and becomes rather large.
66hours
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
It's nice to have a NHC/NOAA floater to watch TD2. Looks like it won't be long before they need to use the other 3?
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Quoting acCane08:

Happened to me as well.

I just lost my connection. had to disconnect/reconnect my modem to get my connection back
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Quoting philliesrock:
Interesting how Bill strengthens while TD2 weakens on the 12z GFS. Perhaps Bill robs some energy from TD2?


Looks like it.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Weve been talking about it too long..

Since Sunday

We finally have something to track.. and everyone is bickering and fighting..


We are trying to help a fellow blogger. And Dr M wrote about it in his blog. If I remember right you was talking about it last night to. It doesn't hurt to have a caring Heart. Drak is one of the really good guys on here.

Sheri
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Interesting how Bill strengthens while TD2 weakens on the 12z GFS. Perhaps Bill robs some energy from TD2?
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We may see a TS next update.

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.8 /1010.2mb/ 28.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
1.8 2.1 3.3
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
For those that don't know... To see where a link is taking you, go to View on the IE Main Menu and place a check mark next to "Status Bar". Now, when you mouse over a link (don't click it) you will see the target displayed in the lower left corner of the IE window.
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TD#2 Strengthening little by little:

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4934
Quoting Funkadelic:

It develops it faster then before?


Yeah
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
Quoting Drakoen:
So it would seem Patrap. Unfortunate that had to happen. Cover themselves. Legal action could take place


Refrain from suing WU please. lol

I like this site
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
Quoting Acemmett90:
my anti virus just stoped somthing crap llets refrian form posting any link today


Mine popped up on the last page. Not sure if it is a coincidence or not.
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12z GFS 48hour

Looks like our "C" storm might be right behind "Bill".
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The Bill wave should be significantly less stronger this run unless something changes.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
Quoting IKE:
Website is down a few seconds when I hit refresh. About the 3rd time..tech must be working on here....

Happened to me as well.
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So it would seem Patrap. Unfortunate that had to happen. Cover themselves. Legal action could take place
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WOW

Uhm..
Ana, Bill, and why hello there Claudette.
Looks like the Bill wave leaves moisture behind and the GFS develops a surface low with it.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


If you mean GFDL...no its not an invest. Yet


oh, ok. Thanks
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GFS further south with TD2
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Same here.

Me too.
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Added to Dr M's blog above:

If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out.


Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5174
Quoting IKE:
Website is down a few seconds when I hit refresh. About the 3rd time..tech must be working on here....


Same here.
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Quoting IKE:
Website is down a few seconds when I hit refresh. About the 3rd time..tech must be working on here....


I've had the same issue.
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It sure is Drak,,and if logic Dictates,..someone is going to great lengths to keep the truth from coming out as to what occurred,Like trying to keep the Mgt of wunderground from discovering what actually occurred.

Here is the Comment that was posted last evening in full.

Quoting SavannahStorm:
I'm going to copy and paste the attack info from my filter log so we know where they are coming from. These are the two I am constantly getting. Whatever you do, do not try to follow these links, as they are probably the source of the attack. I am only posting these so you know what links to watch out for.:

Security Error: Content at http://googleads.g.doubleclick.net/ may not load data from http://ads.technoratimedia.com/ads/get.cfm?urlChecker=http://&zoneIdentifier= DFA400577B659FC7&showFr ameID=717B0991E62A476DB4CEEB01A44F904A.

and

Security Error: Content at http://googleads.g.doubleclick.net/ may not load data from http://cdn4.specificclick.net/img/?ag=1&pb=6154&pg=887650680644719194&us= cy89iorvHItQ7C&rnd=711565.



Quoting SavannahStorm:
I'm going to copy and paste the attack info from my filter log so we know where they are coming from. These are the two I am constantly getting. Whatever you do, do not try to follow these links, as they are probably the source of the attack. I am only posting these so you know what links to watch out for.:

Security Error: Content at http://googleads.g.doubleclick.net/ may not load data from http://ads.technoratimedia.com/ads/get.cfm?urlChecker=http://&zoneIdentifier= DFA400577B659FC7&showFr ameID=717B0991E62A476DB4CEEB01A44F904A.

and

Security Error: Content at http://googleads.g.doubleclick.net/ may not load data from http://cdn4.specificclick.net/img/?ag=1&pb=6154&pg=887650680644719194&us= cy89iorvHItQ7C&rnd=711565.
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Quoting CaneWarning:
I would argue that the virus talk is on topic since Dr. Masters himself mentioned it.


He shoots, he scores!
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
Can anyone give me the link for the GFS Wave 53? Is there one?


If you mean GFDL...no its not an invest. Yet
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
371. IKE
Website is down a few seconds when I hit refresh. About the 3rd time..tech must be working on here....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
I am getting this gut feeling that the environment is beginning to look like 2004 (all over again). 53 wave (Charlie) Td2 (Frances)...oh oh...
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I tell ya what, a quick run through all the cimms products shows the wave @ 53W in great shape and in pristine conditions. Towing an upper level anti-cyclone should fend off any shear that may arise. SAL is nil for a great distance.
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Farther south 02L goes the stronger it can be.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
Can anyone give me the link for the GFS Wave 53? Is there one?
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I would argue that the virus talk is on topic since Dr. Masters himself mentioned it.
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I'm making the TD Two wiki page.
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Quoting hurricane556:
TD2 is much farther south this run


Indeed it is.
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It looks like TD2 is pulling in some moisture from the ITCZ. This might possibly help it continue to develop while it has to deal with the SAL to the north!
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TD2 is much farther south this run
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TS bill in 36 hours:

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Can We Start talking about our new Td... Not a Stupid Virus ... PLEASE?

alt="">

It's not a stupid virus if you've been infected
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Did the two yellow dots disappear?
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Quoting Drakoen:
I have internet access back on my main! I am still in safe mode until I get AVG installed.


I read in some magazine that half of all viruses happen when that someone had been drinking. I'm not saying that you were, but be careful.
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356. 7544
10 day gfsx

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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