TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Quoting Acemmett90:

CRAP!!! evactuate NOLA NOW lol jk

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oh ok....Man, we go without nothing to being pretty active....This will definitely get interesting, and the GOM is waiting and ready (from what I hear anyways)
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Quoting Drakoen:
Everything is back up and running on my main computer. Thank God for Malwarebytes! AVG is installed. Drak is happy


I'm glad it's fixed. We need your input!
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I would tell you that windows defender was the only one that caught the password stealer trojan that I found.
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90 hours...

"Little Bill"

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Gee, that is comforting....

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Everything is back up and running on my main computer. Thank God for Malwarebytes! AVG is installed. Drak is happy
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
Which one is the "bill" wave? Is it the 53?


No the African wave.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Gotta run all! Have a good day BBL tonite. NO FIHTING KIDS! :)
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 177 Comments: 20430
443. IKE
438...thanks for that information....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting hurricane556:
TD2 is much farther south this run


Is that really TD#2 or what's behind it ???
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Which one is the "bill" wave? Is it the 53?
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
My god....

If this played out Bill would be huge.
78hours
Outer bands are sucking the life from poor little Ana and whatever the hecks left of Claudette.



LOL!!! You are an absolute hoot!!!
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Nothing...temps in the GOM are near 32C.

If anything gets in there you can kiss one of the Gulf states goodbye.


Gee, that is comforting....
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Whats wrong with this map?????


theres no storms on it! mines doing the same thing
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Whats wrong with this map?????

Its missing storm locations
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434. IKE
Quoting sctonya:
Updated from the top of the page:
Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.



Thanks! Thanks WU!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting AussieStorm:
Whats wrong with this map?????


Nothing...temps in the GOM are near 32C.

If anything gets in there you can kiss one of the Gulf states goodbye.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Whats wrong with this map?????
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Tropical RAAMB,All Invest and Storms page
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Updated from the top of the page:
Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.



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Quoting leftovers:
chase i saw that last post would you think the second low would suck up the third and follow the first head north west


It appears Bill is headed on a general westward path.
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Whats wrong with this map?????
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424. IKE
GFS run still shows the 53W wave heading WNW...seems slightly more aggressive on this run...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
My god....

If this played out Bill would be huge.
78hours
Outer bands are sucking the life from poor little Ana and whatever the hecks left of Claudette.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Whats wrong with this map?????
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Quoting futuremet:
Apparently it is the ads that is causing the problem. Please use adblock plus.

My AVs are still telling me that my PC is 100% clean


That might be the problem. I have a $5 membership (no ads) and I have no problem.
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Thank you to everyone who answered my question about the Hurricane of 1938.

As far as the viruses go, why not try an install of Linux?

I use it, and in 8 years I have never had a virus, of any kind, whatsoever.

The reason is that I am not allowed to modify my system as an ordinary user. I must sign in as a superuser to do that. When I surf the web, I am an ordinary user and my web browser and anything associated with it have only the same privileges as I do myself.

Linux may be a little inconvenient at times, but I've never gone through inconveniences like what you guys are experiencing now.

And it's not even that inconvenient anymore, come to think about it. I just click on my web browser to open it, look at youtube videos, whatever, with no problems.

My first thought when I sit down at a Windows machine nowadays is, "This thing doesn't work." I mean, I'm just not used to a machine that is slowed down by viruses and malware, where windows close and freeze at random, etc. That just doesn't happen to me.
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the weather chanel is already mentioning the bill wave. i suspect they might label it an invest by 8pm tonight
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Quoting IKE:


I'm 80% convinced that will be a hurricane.


On the GFS run?
Im certain.

In real life?
Its possible.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Apparently it is the ads that is causing the problem. Please use adblock plus.

My AVs are still telling me that my PC is 100% clean. Malwarebytes scanned 200,000 files and foun nothing.
Member Since: July 19, 2008 Posts: 43 Comments: 4051
Quoting Drakoen:
TD2 would likely become Ana on the southern path.


Indeed.
Lets see how the 18Z models look.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
TD2 would likely become Ana on the southern path.
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Is it safe to read the blog yet (from a virus standpoint)?
Member Since: September 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3480
410. IKE
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Holy tropical Fujiwara effect Batman!

Bill eats Claudette and becomes rather large.
66hours


I'm 80% convinced that will be a hurricane.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
408. 7544
lets see if it takes pre bill to fla again this run and maybe pre c storm waiting now
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Quoting StormW:
Good day!

Hot off the press!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS; T.D. TWO AUG 11, 2009 ISSUED 11:40 A.M. EDT


Thanks StormW for the info!!
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Holy tropical Fujiwara effect Batman!

Bill eats Claudette and becomes rather large.
66hours
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.