TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Ana may end up not recurving out to sea. If it moves just north of the Lesser Antilles it will be south of the TUTT in favorable conditions.
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Hurricane Preparation
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Is anyone having the problem Aussie is with the map showing no storms or invests?? Mine is doing it now. Im hoping its not a virus.
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502. CUBWF
Good afternoon everyone. Also notice that there are no downcasters today. It will help to avoid problems in here and focus on the tropics.
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Whats that?
More you say?

Well you asked for it...

136

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
morning everyone

wow TD 2 and other goings on

crazy stuff

I see TD 2 is gaining some convection over its center, its trying hard to get a name

Dvorak #s at 1.8
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RAAMB AL022009 - Tropical Depression 02
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
126..

It gets worse.

Absolutely HUGE. Look at the eastern side.
This is at least a Category 2 with isobars like that.


If the GFS bombs it out in the Caribbean this blog will go crazy lol. The NHC really needs to mention this AOI. Dean was a Category 2 when it was going through the Islands.
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
If something makes in into the central GOM... with those SST's it will bomb out, given Atmospheric conditions are favorable


Bomb out...meaning bad right?
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I'm getting ad block plus installed first then answering questions
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493. 7544
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
126..

It gets worse.

Absolutely HUGE. Look at the eastern side.



hey its looking to stay further south this run too
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I can't wait until the "bill" wave gets far enough offshore to develop, so we can move up to "speculation" from "wild baseless speculation".

Model predictions for a wave that hasn't even developed are basically worthless, because they lack input data. The models tell you which waves have good potential to develop, but can't really tell you where it will go or how strong it will be.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
126..

It gets worse.

Absolutely HUGE. Look at the eastern side.



456 needs to monitor this... His island could get a piece of it.
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126..

It gets worse.

Absolutely HUGE. Look at the eastern side.
This is at least a Category 2 with isobars like that.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Up to 126 hours on the GFS, and man, does Bill look mean.
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Quoting stormdude77:


My thoughts exactly


Yeah it's a little early to say that.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


Gee, that is comforting....


Oh I feel safe- lol
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Hurricane Bill

96 hours
That is an enormous system. It's been a long time since I saw the models blow up something that large.

The Gulf's message to proto-Bill:
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Dean.

All I can say is.. Dean.


My thoughts exactly
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Where is WS today? You'd think he'd be here with a TD out there.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I can here JFV screaming now...
114 hours


Another disturbance coming off the coast there at 114-120 hours lol
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
About to get real ugly...

Typical "Buzz saw" look
102 hours


All I can say is.. Dean.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
Where do long range models take the "Bill"?


Stick around for 15 minutes and you will see.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Quoting Drakoen:
Everything is back up and running on my main computer. Thank God for Malwarebytes! AVG is installed. Drak is happy


Nice going.

I don't think we'll see TS Ana anytime today. The LLC of TD2 seems to getting exposed on it's eastern side again. I've got it at appx 28.9W and 14.6N. I'll give it credit for trying though.

Thoughts?
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Quoting Acemmett90:

yah aleast we don't get ads drak should pay so it doesn't happen again

The blog page is different without all the ad's
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I can here JFV screaming now...
114 hours
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Where do long range models take the "Bill"?
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If something makes in into the central GOM... with those SST's it will bomb out, given Atmospheric conditions are favorable
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The forecast barker shouts out
Pick any wave that's about
53, "2" or 15
Which one's named 1st remains to be seen.
Trip Zeroes over, of this there's no doubt!
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3420
Quoting Drakoen:


Yea I can focus on the tropics. That thing really pissed me off. I never curse in these blogs.


Glad your back. So what cha think about the tropics?

Sheri
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About to get real ugly...

Typical "Buzz saw" look
102 hours
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
470. 7544
grat get busy now for us drake lots happening soon will bill be the first major strom of the sesason
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Best way to protect from crap like that is to do this:

Use Firefox. IE is full of security holes and always has been. Its a microsoft product so its targetted alot because of its huge market share. Stay away from it.

Use AdBlock Plus and NoScript addons for Firefox. These alone will prevent about 90% of possible infections from malicious code inputted into websites.

Blog comments themselves will not infect your computer but pop ads and things like google ads will if you dont have the proper security measures in place. Use a good antivirus that runs constantly like AVG and scan your computer at least once a week. MalwareBytes is a very good program to pick up those nasties that like to hide. Run that at least once a week as well. As usual do not click any links, pictures, or popups that you have no clue about or are even slightly suspicious of. It seems most of you got infected by a script from an ad here on the site. Its not the blog itself but most likely one of WU's ads was infected and therefore spread to unsubscribed posters.

TD2 is starting to look good. Im not so sure if im buying the southern track atm but id like to look at the position of the A/B high first before saying so for sure. Anyone got a good pic of its status atm?
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Good morning all

Just a quick stop in for now. I see that many got hit by a virus. I guess I was lucky but hopefully WU will get this under control.

TD2 looks like it is struggling to build convection and the mid Atl wave is much the same as yesterday.

The feature that was over Barbados yesterday has really died down but there is still evidence of a low level circulation just East of Grenada in the image below which ties in with the hires QS pass for continuity. A little convection is trying to refire there and high pressure is building to the W which will initially shear it until it moves underneath the high.

Lots to watch out there now.

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Quoting Drakoen:


Yea I can focus on the tropics. That thing really pissed me off. I never curse in these blogs.


Good to have you back...

Can you do an analysis on the "Bill" wave?

Id like something to compare mine to.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
I am now a paying member of this site. cost me a whole $12.26 AUD.
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Quoting Patrap:
A Happy Drak,is a working Drak.

Lets get a rolling on the Atlantic Situ ..things are a popping,and I have a feeling we will needs all Hands on Deck soon.


All hands on deck sir! But one's on the head.
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Quoting Acemmett90:

its HOT HOT HOT IN the gom


Yes, it is...... Wonder if we will have to evacuate again this year....
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Quoting Patrap:
A Happy Drak,is a working Drak.

Lets get a rolling on the Atlantic Situ ..things are a popping,and I have a feeling we will needs all Hands on Deck soon.


Yea I can focus on the tropics. That thing really pissed me off. I never curse in these blogs.
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If anyone wants to check out the wiki page for TD Two, take a look, I just made it. I know it's barely anything, but it just got started.
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Hurricane Bill

96 hours
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Plenty to keep the NHC busy. We got TD 2, new African wave, 53W wave, TD 9E in the EPAC, a disturbance to its east that could develop, and a disturbance just east of 140W that could develop.
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A Happy Drak,is a working Drak.

Lets get a rolling on the Atlantic Situ ..things are a popping,and I have a feeling we will needs all Hands on Deck soon.
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Quoting Acemmett90:

CRAP!!! evactuate NOLA NOW lol jk

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.