TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 556 - 506

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76Blog Index

Worst case scenario.

Strengthening Major Hurricane approaching land.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
Regarding the area off the African coast:

Data from Atmos Albany shows the wave axis is just off-shore. Gradual increase in mid level vorticity that should build down to the surface. Satellite derived winds depicted lower to mid level curvature and an 850mb vorticity maximum at the equatorward end of the wave axis. System currently lacks the convergence we saw with TD2. Upper level winds are currently 10-20 knots over the system but as the system moves further north shear should be more conducive for development. Dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer should not be a problem as the series of successive waves and TD2 has cleared the path. The cyclone phase evolution diagram shows SSTs at 29-29C which is conducive for development. The system is fairly large in nature and gradual development is to be expected. I believe we may have a tropical depression from this weekend later in the week and a potential tropical storm over the weekend.

BILLY is comming
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PORTCHARLOTTE72:
o-o-o td 2 is ajoke and thats the only thing to downcast everything else is just hearsay

What????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
can some one send me the T # for TD2
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


2.5 is when it would get named.


Thanks Cybr - couldn't find my chart link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I hope to god nothing enters that bath house we call the GoM. My god its hot there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I love firefox ad blocker. The luxury of having no ads from wunderground for free lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Holy...

Its so strong its actually showing an eye.

Easily Cat 3

162
Well, I have NEVER seen THAT on the GFS before.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
548. IKE
Quoting CUBWF:
Hi Ike, are there any other model supporting the strenght of Bill?


ECMWF...CMC....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


Plus... he is a SHE lol


oops my bad lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CUBWF:
Good afternoon everyone. Also notice that there are no downcasters today. It will help to avoid problems in here and focus on the tropics.
o-o-o td 2 is ajoke and thats the only thing to downcast everything else is just hearsay
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Regarding the area off the African coast:

Data from Atmos Albany shows the wave axis is just off-shore. Gradual increase in mid level vorticity that should build down to the surface. Satellite derived winds depicted lower to mid level curvature and an 850mb vorticity maximum at the equatorward end of the wave axis. System currently lacks the convergence we saw with TD2. Upper level winds are currently 10-20 knots over the system but as the system moves further north shear should be more conducive for development. Dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer should not be a problem as the series of successive waves and TD2 has cleared the path. The cyclone phase evolution diagram shows SSTs at 29-29C which is conducive for development. The system is fairly large in nature and gradual development is to be expected. I believe we may have a tropical depression from this weekend later in the week and a potential tropical storm over the weekend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
alaina1085:

You have mail
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cg2916:
Up to 144 now, Bill sure is looking scary.


No disrespecting here, I like them models but let's get a named storm first on the list before calling it Bill. It could be as well be Ana if TD2 doesn't develop...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
could be another slow mover around florida time to stock up the worst part is no ac
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


I think he meant that this system could be stronger than what the GFS indicates, plus he was joking partly lol

if bill gets into the gulf the blog will crash
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanehanna:

is it at 2.0 that it gets a name?


2.5 is when it would get named.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


I think he meant that this system could be stronger than what the GFS indicates, plus he was joking partly lol


Plus... he is a SHE lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I wonder how that happened.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
537. CUBWF
Hi Ike, are there any other model supporting the strenght of Bill?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well 2009 Hurricane Season got off to late start, but looks like it might end up being one crazy unpredictable season yet, I suspect we'll have Ana within the next 24 hours and Bill within the next 72hrs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Holy...

Its so strong its actually showing an eye.

Easily Cat 3

162
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
morning everyone

wow TD 2 and other goings on

crazy stuff

I see TD 2 is gaining some convection over its center, its trying hard to get a name

Dvorak #s at 1.8

is it at 2.0 that it gets a name?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Eying the Islands.

Near category 3 hurricane strength:


the poor island that would suck
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Acemmett90:

but the other model are show a storm with this strangh


I think he meant that this system could be stronger than what the GFS indicates, plus he was joking partly lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxLogic:
NOTE: Look at how the models are no underestimating the AB High. Also the 12Z GFS shows you how the Bermuda High builds W as "B" moves west... which keeps it on a W to WNW track. We'll see how the GFS looks after the whole run finishes running as well as what the CMC/NOGAPS/ECMWF do with it.

u doubled post
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Under the image..posted 998 mb is NOT a Cat 2..its borderline TS or CAt 1.

992 is the mark used most the time for a Hurricane cat 1..although that can differ a few mb's up or down depending on size.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
529. IKE
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Im taking screen shots. Its like it never even happened. Im also a moderator on their forums so its no big deal.


OK.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Eying the Islands.

Near category 3 hurricane strength:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


yeah well remember, the gfs is awful with intensity.... it is always understated, lol

but the other model are show a storm with this strangh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NOTE: Look at how the models are no underestimating the AB High. Also the 12Z GFS shows you how the Bermuda High builds W as "B" moves west... which keeps it on a W to WNW track. We'll see how the GFS looks after the whole run finishes running as well as what the CMC/NOGAPS/ECMWF do with it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NOTE: Look at how the models are no underestimating the AB High. Also the 12Z GFS shows you how the Bermuda High builds W as "B" moves west... which keeps it on a W to WNW track. We'll see how the GFS looks after the whole run finishes running as well as what the CMC/NOGAPS/ECMWF do with it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
524. IKE
12Z GFS has the wave at 53W getting to north Florida and sitting.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting IKE:


Accuweather get ticked at you for putting that on here? I notice it's their pro-site.

I'm just asking...hate to see you get in trouble.


Im taking screen shots. Its like it never even happened. Im also a moderator on their forums so its no big deal.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Whats that?
More you say?

Well you asked for it...

136




See TD 2 in the upper left. This one will follow
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Easily a two. About 100-110mph.


yeah well remember, the gfs is awful with intensity.... it is always understated, lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Our new TD is born :) Hey CaneWarning, Drakoen :)


Hey! What are your thoughts?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cyclonekid:
Through the Carrib. Hit Tampa. Come back out to sea, hit Wilmington, NC and then zoom back into land. Pretty complicated.

Like an altered version of Ivan.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
518. IKE
Quoting alaina1085:
Is anyone having the problem Aussie is with the map showing no storms or invests?? Mine is doing it now. Im hoping its not a virus.


Probably focused on the virus problem at WU?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Good Morning all!

The next 10 days will be interesting for sure!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Vortex95:
You guys are going to Claudette already? This is not 2005, not every wave is gonna develop espically this season. One name at a time would be nice but if you really wanna talk about Claudette be by guest.


24 hours out is in the realm of possibility kiddo.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"Through the Carrib. Hit Tampa. Come back out to sea, hit Wilmington, NC and then zoom back into land. Pretty complicated."

And the error on this prediction is only +/- 2,000 miles!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
513. 7544
heres to 06 run compare

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
512. IKE
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Whats that?
More you say?

Well you asked for it...

136



Accuweather get ticked at you for putting that on here? I notice it's their pro-site.

I'm just asking...hate to see you get in trouble.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
You guys are going to Claudette already? This is not 2005, not every wave is gonna develop espically this season. One name at a time would be nice but if you really wanna talk about Claudette be my guest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Acemmett90:

what cat is bill at in that image


Easily a two. About 100-110mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Bomb out...meaning bad right?


Yes, not a good thing...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Where do long range models take the "Bill"?
Through the Carrib. Hit Tampa. Come back out to sea, hit Wilmington, NC and then zoom back into land. Pretty complicated.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Up to 144 now, Bill sure is looking scary.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Whats that?
More you say?

Well you asked for it...

136


what cat is bill at in that image
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 556 - 506

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.