TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 606 - 556

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76Blog Index

Better view
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 19N81W:
guys getting confused on the GFS models...is it predicting TD2 to become that monster just skirting the northern islands or the second well defined wave? Seems most of them are all recurving...to be expected I guess...


I think thats referring to soon to be "Bill"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Acemmett90:

great now two storms near florida wrote the blog off now it will crash


WS is gonna flip when he finally logs back on! LOL!! Yall get ready.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
guys getting confused on the GFS models...is it predicting TD2 to become that monster just skirting the northern islands or the second well wave? Seems most of them are all recurving...to be expected I guess...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:


I'm thinking Ana's gonna be stronger than the NHC forecast says it will, especially if its in the Bahamas.


You've got that right.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
please can someone send me the T# for TD2
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
599. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:
If you look at the pattern the ridge is blocking any troughs from coming down:


I was looking at those charts....200 mb's...500 mb's...850 mb's....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am not sure I really want to see how this GFS run ends. Hopefully it is a fluke, but it really does look like this wave will develop and become a hurricane. This is one that needs to go fishing; it would be a beautiful thing to watch and it wouldn't hurt anyone unless they somehow navigated right into it. A Category 4+ entering the Gulf hot tub at that intensity... well, there'd better be some shear there, or they'd have to redraw the maps afterward.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Question-

When and where was TD 1?

There's a little spin in the GOM and keep an eye on the Caribbean as well. Starting to BOOM!!!!

















Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If the 12z ECMWF follows the GFS we should see the NHCs attention shift to the African wave.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Focus on the near term,,take the Models with caution.

Better to be prepared now,than to be in the rush crush then.

One should already have a Plan..a destination as well
if evacuations are called in your area.


Pat, it can't come anywhere near Tampa for the next two weeks because my friends are on vacation and I always go to their house to get away from storms. Sorry, this storm will just have to wait until it better fits into my schedule.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
If you look at the pattern the ridge is blocking any troughs from coming down:


sigh...beat me to it lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
592. slavp
Quoting TexasHurricane:
I think those along the GOM are bitting their nails this year....
I do every season lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
GFS has Ana in the Bahamas with a ridge to the north.


I'm thinking Ana's gonna be stronger than the NHC forecast says it will, especially if its in the Bahamas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
590. 7544
Quoting CaneWarning:


So that means Florida?


10 day gfsx dont know if its anna first but def. bill second wow

Link
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6689
If you look at the pattern the ridge is blocking any troughs from coming down:
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
Quoting Drakoen:
GFS has Ana in the Bahamas with a ridge to the north.


So that means Florida?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Focus on the near term,,take the Models with caution.

Better to be prepared now,than to be in the rush crush then.

One should already have a Plan..a destination as well
if evacuations are called in your area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS has Ana in the Bahamas with a ridge to the north.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
stop calling it Bill lol

Lets get Ana first


Shun the non-believers!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
583. IKE
Quoting 69Viking:


Oh great, so which weekend is this one going to mess up LOL!


GFS trended a little further west on this run with that wave. Still shows the panhandle not getting much from it.

ECMWF shows it further west on the 0Z run.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Doesn't look good for the islands....this one may be a long runner...news-maker type systems.


Yes, my first concern will be with those such as 456 and our other friends on the islands.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


I am with you guys on that


Yes great addon. Firefox is already the fastest browser, and this makes it even faster by not having to load ads.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think those along the GOM are bitting their nails this year....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I dunno. I've learned to distrust long-range models. I simply track the storms depending on it's day to day positions. Key to this has been experience.

Good morning/afternoon/evening! :D

I'm excited to have a good season coming up.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1975
Sorry folks...

Last hi-res image.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
576. IKE
Doesn't look good for the islands....this one may be a long runner...news-maker type systems.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Worst case scenario.

Strengthening Major Hurricane approaching land.


Man, the blog would go insane!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
stop calling it Bill lol

Lets get Ana first
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
I love firefox ad blocker. The luxury of having no ads from wunderground for free lol

I love it! Used to be, that when a page would hang for a while, you could even see the name of some ad server listed in the corner as the current operation of the loading page. Why anyone would set up loading from an ad server that isn't at least as fast as their own webserver is beyond me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
12Z GFS has the wave at 53W getting to north Florida and sitting.


Oh great, so which weekend is this one going to mess up LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Worst case scenario.

Strengthening Major Hurricane approaching land.

DEFINITLY Major.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Acemmett90:

if bill gets into the gulf the blog will crash


lol yup.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
I am with MichFan and futuremet.

Put adblock plus on your firefox and lose a lot of malicious code...and make everything load faster. And this is not just for WU, but for any page that sources ads on other servers.

https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/1865


I am with you guys on that
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
CaneWarning, my thoughts are that Ana will probably keep out to sea as a fish, and that Bill, the wave just coming off Africa now, in 10 days will be east of northern Bahamas, heading WNW, on its way to causing big trouble in about 12/13 days. That's just my guess.

I wonder, all that heat content in the Gulf of Mexico--if no tropical systems tap it, will we have a strange, stormy winter from the energy it gives to winter storms?


Big trouble may be an understatement if the models are accurate. It's something to watch.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That link is 100% clean
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
lol bill is i figment of your imagination it doesnt exist wow talk about insanity
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Holy...

Its so strong its actually showing an eye.

Easily Cat 3

162


Usually models underestimate strength so that could even be a Cat 4.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Troops join in typhoon rescue
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOL. Everyone relax. We don't know how this will play out yet. The models do support development but in terms of strength its anyones guess. How many times have we seen models bullishly develop category 4 and 5 monsters and in the end, develop into minimal or moderate systems? It's far to early for all the hype. Just be prepared if your in an area which could be affected by a hurricane.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

What????


Ignore him, he's a troll.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dropsonde:
Well, I have NEVER seen THAT on the GFS before.


It happens sometimes with very strong systems.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29886
Quoting IKE:


Probably focused on the virus problem at WU?


Must be, everything seems to be working ok.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am with MichFan and futuremet.

Put adblock plus on your firefox and lose a lot of malicious code...and make everything load faster. And this is not just for WU, but for any page that sources ads on other servers.

https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/1865
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Worst case scenario.

Strengthening Major Hurricane approaching land.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 606 - 556

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
67 °F
Overcast