TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

Blog comments not recommended
Someone managed to post a comment on my blog both Saturday and Monday containing links to a malicious web site that infected some people's computers when they clicked on the link. Our tech people have identified how to stop these attacks, but it will take some development time to engineer a fix. I recommend people not click on any links in comments posted on any wunderground blog unless you are highly confident of the destination of the link, or of the strength of your anti-virus software. I'll announce when the software fix has been made. I apologize to anybody who may have been affected by this. If you have specific information on which comments may have caused the problem, and who may be responsible, please submit a support ticket to help us out. At this time, it appears that actually reading comments on wunderground blogs is not a danger.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 756 - 706

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76Blog Index

Quoting louisianaboy444:
I have to agree with Drak i don't see any weakness capable of recurving TD2 or "Bill" for that matter the setup the next couple days is for East Coast hits...I most agree with the 12Z GFS taking Ana to the Bahamas...I would say its possible for Ana to go through the straits and leave Florida alone but then the Gulf states are a bullseye....You can't win


Yup, huge anticyclone is expected to build over east coast, and troughing over the midwest--the ideal condition for east coast hits.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 19N81W:
nothing seems able to stay that organized this season....


????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
guy what are the odds this thing hit S.FL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting louisianaboy444:
I have to agree with Drak i don't see any weakness capable of recurving TD2 or "Bill" for that matter the setup the next couple days is for East Coast hits...I most agree with the 12Z GFS taking Ana to the Bahamas...I would say its possible for Ana to go through the straits and leave Florida alone but then the Gulf states are a bullseye....You can't win


Get the pad ready if the latter happens...lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BenBIogger:
Can somebody post the CMC link.


Its not out yet... but here..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
nothing seems able to stay that organized this season....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Im on a Toughbook secure laptop and Im not up to speed on it as far as Images and posting links fast as usual. So bear with me while my IT guy tries to restore my Dell PC.

Its already cost me big as to labor...so I may be required to use this for some time to come.
if i ever get infected i have an emerg.fund set aside to just go out and buy a brand new pc might as well if its to cost the same to fix the old
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
I have to agree with Drak i don't see any weakness capable of recurving TD2 or "Bill" for that matter the setup the next couple days is for East Coast hits...I most agree with the 12Z GFS taking Ana to the Bahamas...I would say its possible for Ana to go through the straits and leave Florida alone but then the Gulf states are a bullseye....You can't win
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link

Increased organization of the disturbance approaching the antilles. Much better defined than just a few hours ago...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting futuremet:


I don't really know at the moment. But the GFS is expecting to hit as a TS/depresssion.


Thats what I dont understand. Why just a TS/Dep when they expect Bill to be this huge hurricane?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Can somebody post the CMC link.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, the heat content really is the definition of marginal:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/OHCNFCST/2009AL02_OHCNFCST_2009081112 00.GIF

RAMMB plot don't show here now, either. What is this, a Colorado image boycott?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
741. 7544
Quoting Tropix3:
Thank You 7544 for the link!


no prob just save it you are gooing to need it lol

h b ws gfs gave you a present for now
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
Quoting gator23:

yikes! Ana as a hurricane or T-Storm?


I don't really know at the moment. But the GFS is expecting to hit as a TS/depresssion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
In mid to late August,its not uncommon at all for a area to see 2 systems in 7 days. Just go back to 2002 and see How Isidore and Lili affected the same areas in a weeks time.

Also,.take a gander look at the GOES-12 Imagery from 1 Sept 2008 of the Atlantic Basin and one will find 5 systems and 2 affecting land.

Climatology reaches a threshold point and were seeing it before our eyes now

there is lots to see yet pat


for newbies

models i meant to be used as guidance only and donot depict final outcome or point of impact in any one event things can and will change
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
alaina1085
You've got mail.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gator23:
Im confused. Is this run predicting Ana Bill to Florida or just Bill?


Both...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Pat. You are the best. My neighbor who was here during Katrina had never seen the aerial shots.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sporteguy03:


Yeah good thing it only just a model run right now and not reality.


Yea, models are fun, but when mother nature unleashes, bunch of people will be deeply affected by the beauty of those storms. Let's hope they do not come to reality.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
I don't see how the NHC track doesn't shift to the south and west with TD2. Recurvature is becoming less likely.

I know. I wish TD2 would go ahead and develop a little so it can be picked up and taken for a ride out to cool waters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Twisterdata.com
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting zoomiami:
Pat - do you have your graphics back? How about the one you showed last week with the three storms marching across.


Im on a Toughbook secure laptop and Im not up to speed on it as far as Images and posting links fast as usual. So bear with me while my IT guy tries to restore my Dell PC.

Its already cost me big as to labor...so I may be required to use this for some time to come.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Geez...everone from Venezuala to Ireland should buckle down and prepare. Preparation for Natural disasters is a great idea. Using models for track information beyond 5 or 7 days at most is utter hogwash.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting futuremet:


both...

yikes! Ana as a hurricane or T-Storm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
For those of you that have been here a while and have worn off the markings on certain keys:

It is on the top next to F6 and commonly has a gap to it's left.


Haha!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thank You 7544 for the link!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ususally a lurker here, but do the models show a continious picture or just frames set at specific intervals? Cant really see what happens with "Bill" (if it ever develops) between just East of Dominica and Martinica and North of Hispaniola
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gator23:
Im confused. Is this run predicting Ana Bill to Florida or just Bill?


both...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just came from eating something to find out that GFS wants to stall "B" before taking it through FL... if that were to happen... that would be some major flooding waiting to happen, among other events.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 69Viking:


Any wave that gets into the GOM could spell trouble with those water temps and low shear levels. This time of year is always a risk for the GOM with it's high water temps. I've learned to never let my guard down!


GO PACKERS!!!!!!!

:D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks to me it(hell, not sure which it "it" is) brushes FL and actually it's NC harder. I feel safer here in Eastern NC considering it's two weeks out. More likely it won't hit than it will.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


You mean with the 11am update?


It should shift in the 5:00pm update
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30841
Im confused. Is this run predicting Ana Bill to Florida or just Bill?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For those of you that have been here a while and have worn off the markings on certain keys:

It is on the top next to F6 and commonly has a gap to it's left.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Right over west palm beach
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If you look at the steering layer the mid latitude trough is enough to induce movement in the direction just north of the Lesser Antilles but then subtropical high bridges with the continental high.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30841
TWO guessing time! I was close last night at 2 AM, so lets try this again.

A Strong Tropical wave is emerging off the African Coast. There is a Medium chance, 20-50% of this system developing into a Tropical Cyclone in the next 48 hours.

An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave has changed little in organization today. There is a low chance, less than 20% of this becoming a Tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave about 600 miles east of the Windward Islands has also changed little in organization today. There is a low chance, less than 20% of this becoming a Tropical Cyclone in the next 48 hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The models are completely irrelevant at this point. Let's use them for cyclogenesis and then once we have COC to intialize the models on we can take a harder look at them.

We are speculating on something that isn't even there yet guys...I wouldn't panic to much, for there is not a lot of faith put into long range models.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
I don't see how the NHC track doesn't shift to the south and west with TD2. Recurvature is becoming less likely.


You mean with the 11am update?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Yes it is, I've been busy all morning long with the fam. What's up in tbe tropics, guys? Anything new with our TD2?


You must have done the 0,0,0 thingy with your B-day candles like Cyclone Oz suggested?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
GFS wants to erase Florida off the Earth


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bmxyj6iInMc

R.E.M. - It's The End Of The World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 756 - 706

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron