TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Are we geeting so hopefull we already calling for bill? gosh guys we just got our first storm
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who the hell is BILL?
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Quoting futuremet:


That is because it is too aggressive on its strength and underestimates the high...


ok.
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Well I hope louisiana doesn't get hit again. Louisianaboy444's been working out.

You got that Tropical cyclones out there....Not in my neighborhood! lol
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802. 7544
watch the high pres thats the key for now on where they could go most seee a weak in the high that would take anna out to sea but it also can built in and hold wait watch and see
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6618
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


I typically don't look at global models for strength. The conditions that allow the second storm to thrive will be present for the first storm since they are so close together. None show TD2 becoming a hurricane but as directed by the NHC it is possible if it stays south of the forecast track.


Yea thanks. Thats why I was asking, because they are so close so conditions shouldnt be that different.
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799. slavp
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well I hope louisiana doesn't get hit again. Louisianaboy444's been working out.
I agree...Evacuating 4 times in 3 yrs sucks lol
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well I hope louisiana doesn't get hit again. Louisianaboy444's been working out.


LMAO!
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Quoting Claudette1234:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 164500 UTC
Lat : 14:38:34 N Lon : 29:54:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.0 /1009.0mb/ 30.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.0 2.3 3.4


35 MPH.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
You can't put on any odds on a South Florida hit at this time. Its insane to do that. Its not even an invest yet. Its over 300 hours away. Calm down. Just be have your hurricane supplies ready for the rest of the season.


Exactly! The over hype and hysteria is typical on this blog. "Bill" has hardly emerged off of the coast yet and we're already talking about a track of 8 days plus.
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Quoting BenBIogger:


Now has ANA going out to sea


That is because it is too aggressive on its strength and underestimates the high...
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Quoting alaina1085:


Thats what I dont understand. Why just a TS/Dep when they expect Bill to be this huge hurricane?


I typically don't look at global models for strength. The conditions that allow the second storm to thrive will be present for the first storm since they are so close together. None show TD2 becoming a hurricane but as directed by the NHC it is possible if it stays south of the forecast track.
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12z CMC shows ANA recurving into a weakness in the BH.
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guys guys wat do u mean its not an invest im talking about TD2
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well I hope louisiana doesn't get hit again. Louisianaboy444's been working out.


Yep.
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Quoting Claudette1234:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 164500 UTC
Lat : 14:38:34 N Lon : 29:54:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.0 /1009.0mb/ 30.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.0 2.3 3.4


The T# went up didn't it?
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
OK Drakoen, do you think it is unlikely that TD 2 and Bill will hit the east coast of the USA north of FL?


No. Everyone needs to watch this. There are just certain areas at higher than normal risk at this time.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 29714
finally somthing forms in this record quite season!
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Quoting ChrisDcane:
guy what are the odds this thing hit S.FL


As it is not listed here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT2 shtml/111445.shtml?
And the rules for listing it there are:
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.

The probability of seeing it in S Fla by 12 Z Sun are essentially zero. Beyond that is not calculated due to the futility of doing so with the gross error of our forecasts of such a duration.

Actual, honest answer: IF it makes it across the pond, I personally do not expect it to still be at such a low latitude. Closer to 30N by the time it would reach the East Coast.
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Seriously - Stop lookng at where the models are taking these storms....They could go anywhere!

What you need to pay attention to is the fact that The models are (for the most part) Agreeing that Anna and Bill will spin up.

Bill Looks to be a mondster by most models.

You all wished for it ....now you have it. The Sleeping giant (ATL Season) seems to be waking up.
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Quoting futuremet:
12z CMC


Now has ANA going out to sea
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Quoting Acemmett90:
Could be worse it could be
90-100


ok now you are being an alarmist, this thing isnt even developed yet and its 15 days away, there is no need to freak people out for no reason
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2009 Time : 164500 UTC
Lat : 14:38:34 N Lon : 29:54:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.0 /1009.0mb/ 30.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
2.0 2.3 3.4
Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 549
Quoting Vortex95:


How about everyone breathe and not freak out about this "Bill" if you will is not even an invest yet.

True but what we do need to see is that the GFS is pointing to a trend. THat trend seems to favor a U.S. East Coast strike sometime this season.
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Geez, why is everyone asking the same question of "omg will it hit s florida". Scroll up, fifteen other people have asked the same question.
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You can't put on any odds on a South Florida hit at this time. Its insane to do that. Its not even an invest yet. Its over 300 hours away. Calm down. Just be have your hurricane supplies ready for the rest of the season.
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Quoting CaneWarning:
It's never too early to begin monitoring the ant population in your area to see if they are acting unusual. I was just outside and observed an ant entering a small crack in the sidewalk.

When nature starts to act unusual then that's when its time to think about what to do. its never to early to leave but it can be fatal to leave it to late.
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12z CMC
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Quoting Acemmett90:

20 - 50

thats not good :(
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Get the pad ready if the latter happens...lol.

Of course you always welcomed here....anybody in the blog come up to my pad i'm throwing a hurricane party...i got Long island's and that stuff you was talking about yesterday Acemett lol
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Is the GFS taking both storms over the nothern antilles (specially Puerto Rico)?
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It's never too early to begin monitoring the ant population in your area to see if they are acting unusual. I was just outside and observed an ant entering a small crack in the sidewalk.
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what are the odds that it hits S.FL
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Quoting jasoniscoolman10:
i hope you like this map...


Nice job Jason, I see you are actually being serious now.
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Quoting ChrisDcane:
guy what are the odds this thing hit S.FL


Too early to say, although model runs are consistant with bringing both systems at least close by. Wait for another few days before we have any high level of certainty
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Ana? Bill? Didn't know there were any named storms yet ;o) J/k love you guys, get lots of info from ya's and lots of laffs and giggles. Thanks keep up the good work
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Quoting WeatherStudent:
Ok guys, I just got caught on everything. what can I say, I'm at a loss for words. Nothing shy then a 21st century Hurricane Andrew for us if this GFS forecast were to verify. Is it becoming a more probable outcome now, bloggers?


Possibly.
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Strench of TD2 depends basically how moves to West once change direction WNW will be less dangerous.
Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 549
Quoting louisianaboy444:
I have to agree with Drak i don't see any weakness capable of recurving TD2 or "Bill" for that matter the setup the next couple days is for East Coast hits...I most agree with the 12Z GFS taking Ana to the Bahamas...I would say its possible for Ana to go through the straits and leave Florida alone but then the Gulf states are a bullseye....You can't win


Yup, huge anticyclone is expected to build over east coast, and troughing over the midwest--the ideal condition for east coast hits.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.