TD 2 forms in the Atlantic; hundreds feared dead from Typhoon Morakot; Felicia hits

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on August 11, 2009

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Tropical Depression Two has formed out of the strong tropical wave off the coast of Africa we've been watching, and has a good chance of becoming the Atlantic hurricane season's first named storm. Satellite loops of the storm show that heavy thunderstorm activity is increasing near the storm's center, and low-level spiral bands are getting better established. However, dry air to TD 2's north is interfering with this process, and the storm is being slow to organize. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed TD 2.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 2.

Wind shear over the storm is low, 5 knots, and is expected to remain low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, through Thursday. Sea Surface temperatures are a marginal 26 - 27°C, and there is plenty of dry, stable air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to to TD 2's north. The relatively cool SSTs and dry air mean that TD 2 will not be able to intensify quickly. However, does appear likely that TD 2 has enough going for it that it will be able to become Tropical Storm Ana later today or on Wednesday. Most of the computer models show some weak development, but none of them predict TD 2 will become a hurricane. It is unusual for storms forming this far north to make it all the way across the Atlantic to hit the Lesser Antilles Islands, and the current NHC forecast track aiming TD 2 north of the islands appears to be a good one.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
Two other tropical waves, one passing through the Lesser Antilles Islands, and one about 600 miles east of the islands, are mentioned in NHC's Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Both of these waves have very limited heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing, and are not a threat to develop over the next two days. None of the computer models develop either of these waves.

A large, disorganized tropical wave is just leaving the coast of Africa, south of the Cape Verdes Islands. The GFS and ECMWF models continue to predict the possible development of this wave late this week.


Figure 2. Track and total rain amount from Typhoon Morakot. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Death toll from Typhoon Morakot in the hundreds
The death toll from Typhoon Morakot continues climb, as a landslide triggered by the storm's heavy rains hit the small town of Shiao Lin in southern Taiwan. Shiao Lin has a population of 1,300, and 400 - 600 people are missing in the wake of the landslide. Morakot killed an additional 41 elsewhere on Taiwan, with 60 missing. Earlier, the storm killed 22 in the Philippines, and went on to kill 6 in mainland China, which it hit as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds and heavy rain. Morakot's heavy rains caused an estimated $1.3 billion in damage to China.

Morakot moved very slowly as it passed over Taiwan, dumping near world-record amounts of rain. Alishan in the mountains of southern Taiwan recorded 91.98" of rain over a two-day period, one of the heaviest two-day rains in world history. The world 2-day rainfall record is 98.42", set at Reunion Island on March 15 - 17, 1952. Alishan received an astonishing 9.04 feet of rain over a 3-day period. The highest 1-day rainfall total ever recorded on Taiwan occurred Saturday at Weiliao Mountain in Pingtung County, which recorded 1.403 meters (4.6 feet or 55 inches) or rain. Nine the ten highest one-day rainfall amounts in Taiwanese history were reached on Saturday, according to the Central Weather Bureau.

Felicia continues to weaken, but is a flash flooding threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Felicia continues to steadily weaken, thanks to high wind shear of 30 knots. Recent satellite loops show that almost no heavy thunderstorm activity remains, and what little there is has been pushed to the northeast side of the center, exposing the surface center as a swirl of low clouds.


Figure 3. Tropical storm Felicia appeared as a swirl of low clouds with one spot of heavy thunderstorm activity to the northeast as it approached Hawaii yesterday evening.

High wind shear will continue to weaken Felicia today, and the storm is unlikely to cause major flooding problems as it moves over the islands today. The greatest danger of flooding will be over the northern islands, where Felicia's main moisture is concentrated.

Link to follow:
Wundermap for Hawaii

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I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

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Looks to me like the NHC has moved the track to the left three times so far...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Same TC2 with Wndcur=30kt and 1006mb central pressure for the model guidance.

Possible that the dvorak has jumped the gun a bit, unless they change it later on.

All to be revealed in a couple o' hours.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Way too soon to say adj13.
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Thanks dfw
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


ATCF


Ah, thanks.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
3500. IKE
Quoting alaina1085:


The blob is huge..
Want some beer with your crow?


7 and 7.
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What is this that the CMC is showing hitting the TX/LA coastline in about 6 days???

Link
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Quoting Jebekarue:
Long time lurker here with a question, where do you find the area forecast discussion by the NWS for an area? Saw the one Ike posted for New Orleans, I live in Pensacola and wanted to see if they were similar tia


Go to the NWS page for Pensacola:
Link

Then in the bottom-right-hand area of the page, labeled "Additional Forecasts and Information" click on "Forecast Discussion".

You can search for other cities also at the top of the page.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Looks like TD2 and the blob coming off Africa are about 900 miles apart.

Looking for 90L on the blob.

I thought the wave going through the islands might get 90L....serve me some crow....


The blob is huge..
Want some beer with your crow?
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The wave behind td 2 has an s shape. Not long now for it to become td 3.
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Good Morning Weather Geeks!: My first post on here is in the form of a question. I am a Cat Adjuster and based on all the different information out there, where do I need to pack the motor home to go to for Ana or Bill?
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3494. slavp
Quoting IKE:


Correct.
Quoting tarpontexas:


Must be what the Canadian model picked up on I hope the other models don't come into agreement
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Quoting Cotillion:


Nrt, where do you get the updates with the renumbering?


ATCF
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jebekarue:
Long time lurker here with a question, where do you find the area forecast discussion by the NWS for an area? Saw the one Ike posted for New Orleans, I live in Pensacola and wanted to see if they were similar tia


Google NWS Mobile....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3491. IKE
Looks like TD2 and the blob coming off Africa are about 900 miles apart.

Looking for 90L on the blob.

I thought the wave going through the islands might get 90L....serve me some crow....
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3490. ackee
can somebody help me out I see two spin with wave comeing of coast off africa the one to the south cape verd look weaker than the spin east of the cape verd
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Quoting RMM34667:


Did you catch any of the meteor shower? Was too cloudy here in tampa bay. Got up too early for nothing. No shooting stars and no Ana.


Did I miss a meteor show on a totally clear night by spending it refreshing screens for the NHC and Navy NRL?

OMG...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


GOMEX = Gulf Of MEXico
SST's = Sea Surface Temperatures
TCHP = Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
SEUS = SouthEast U.S.


i had real issues with seus and tchp, thanks for clearing it up! :)
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Quoting BeanTech:


Good morning...

Myself, I'm thinking "it's Wednesday...only 2 more days 'till the weekend!" ;)


Haha, Nice.
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3486. IKE
Quoting tarpontexas:


Must be what the Canadian model picked up on


Correct.
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3484. IKE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
440 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2009

.SHORT TERM...
SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THIS
MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE AREA. TS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO THE THE DYNAMICS OF THE TROUGH DIGGING
AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD. COUPLE THIS WITH HEATING
TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY DEVELOP. HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ALL
DAY FOR MCB AND BTR DUE TO THE GENTLE SLOPPING OF THE FRONTAL SFC
AND JUST DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SH/TS.

20-30% FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THU THROUGH SAT AND 10-20% NORTH.
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE A VERY
WEAK BAROCLINIC SFC LOW WILL FORM AND MOVE NE FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SAT. THE FIRST OF SEVERAL MODERATE TO STRONG TROPICAL WAVES WILL
THEN ENTER THE EASTERN GULF SAT EVENING. A WEAK TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE MAY MANAGE TO GET ORGANIZED ON THE NORTHERN MOST END
OF THE WAVE WHERE IT INTERACTS WITH THE OLD TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
GULF.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT CAUSING A DEEP FETCH
OF 20 KNOT WINDS FROM THE KEYS NORTHWARD. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND SOME HIGHER TIDE LEVELS.
HAVE ONCE AGAIN INCREASED POP NUMBERS FOR SUN AND MON AS GLOBAL
MODELS ARE FALLING INTO AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN AND INITIALIZED WELL.
MOST OF THESE VARIABLES WILL DEPEND QUITE A BIT ON THE MOISTURE
FLUX ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST.

.LONG TERM...
TUE WE WILL SEE ANOTHER WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE GULF AND POSSIBLY
ANOTHER BY THU.


Must be what the Canadian model picked up on
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 02 2009081212 BEST 0 144N 333W 30 1006 TD


Nrt, where do you get the updates with the renumbering?
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Good Morning Everyone...from South Fla..
Interesting several days ago..0 targets for the NHC (and us) to watch, now 4...Gotta love August!
Storm..nice blog post this morning, thanks for the indepth update.
Stay well..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AL 02 2009081212 BEST 0 144N 333W 30 1006 TD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3478. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
WTNT01 KNGU 120901
WARNING ATCN MIL 02L NAT 090812080840

2009081206 02L NONAME 005 01 270 09 SATL 060
T000 146N 0319W 030
T012 146N 0340W 035 R034 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 146N 0364W 035 R034 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 146N 0389W 040 R034 045 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 045 NW QD
T048 150N 0414W 045 R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 165N 0465W 050 R050 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 190N 0525W 045
T120 225N 0585W 040
AMP
#0001
NNNN
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION NONAME (02L) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION NONAME (02L) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ATLANTIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 14.6N 31.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 31.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.6N 34.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 14.6N 36.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.6N 38.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.0N 41.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 16.5N 46.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 19.0N 52.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 22.5N 58.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 32.4W OR 396 NM WSW OF MINDELO, CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. 12FT SEAS: 30NM NE, 00NM SE, 00NM SW, 00NM NW.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN
0209080812 117N 154W 25
0209080818 119N 167W 25
0209080900 123N 181W 25
0209080906 128N 194W 25
0209080912 134N 210W 25
0209080918 139N 223W 25
0209081000 142N 230W 25
0209081006 143N 240W 25
0209081012 144N 249W 25
0209081018 144N 257W 25
0209081100 144N 268W 25
0209081106 144N 279W 25
0209081112 145N 290W 25
0209081118 146N 299W 25
0209081200 146N 310W 30
0209081206 146N 319W 30

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54352


looking more and more like an east coast storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Most likely Ana at 11.
T2.5/2.5 02L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Long time lurker here with a question, where do you find the area forecast discussion by the NWS for an area? Saw the one Ike posted for New Orleans, I live in Pensacola and wanted to see if they were similar tia
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Great update Storm! Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3473. slavp
I sure don't like the looks of the 12Z CMC Model...I am hoping it's a fluke..lol
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Has anyone noticed the feature behind the so called "monster maker" at the far eastern edge of the current east atlantic sat loop? Huge spin on that system with two in front paving a smooth path... thoughts?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


I won't finally believe it until the NHC classifies.

Please classify it NHC and get Ana over with! LOL.


Lol, for sure.

Just going off when they reached 2.0, we had TD2. Stands to reason 2.5 will be the upgrade.

But yes, we wait for the official statement...
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
3470. juniort
Thank you guys for that explanation
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


I won't finally believe it until the NHC classifies.

Please classify it NHC and get Ana over with! LOL.


Exactly!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi StormW,
I was wondering if you could explain the difference between the WU gfs model and others, say the gfs from FAU? Are they the same, just that WU's goes out two weeks?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3467. java162
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Mornin' Doug. Pretty impressive line of tropicality starting to rev up, huh?


tropicality??????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3465. IKE
Quoting Cotillion:
We have Ana:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
12/1145 UTC 14.3N 33.5W T2.5/2.5 02L


I won't finally believe it until the NHC classifies.

Please classify it NHC and get Ana over with! LOL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning all.

See I didnt miss much last night.

How is everyone? Whats everyone thinking?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3463. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
440 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2009

.SHORT TERM...
SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTING EVER SO SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THIS
MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE AREA. TS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO THE THE DYNAMICS OF THE TROUGH DIGGING
AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD. COUPLE THIS WITH HEATING
TODAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD
AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY DEVELOP. HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ALL
DAY FOR MCB AND BTR DUE TO THE GENTLE SLOPPING OF THE FRONTAL SFC
AND JUST DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SH/TS.

20-30% FOR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THU THROUGH SAT AND 10-20% NORTH.
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE A VERY
WEAK BAROCLINIC SFC LOW WILL FORM AND MOVE NE FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SAT. THE FIRST OF SEVERAL MODERATE TO STRONG TROPICAL WAVES WILL
THEN ENTER THE EASTERN GULF SAT EVENING. A WEAK TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE MAY MANAGE TO GET ORGANIZED ON THE NORTHERN MOST END
OF THE WAVE WHERE IT INTERACTS WITH THE OLD TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
GULF.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT CAUSING A DEEP FETCH
OF 20 KNOT WINDS FROM THE KEYS NORTHWARD. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND SOME HIGHER TIDE LEVELS.
HAVE ONCE AGAIN INCREASED POP NUMBERS FOR SUN AND MON AS GLOBAL
MODELS ARE FALLING INTO AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN AND INITIALIZED WELL.
MOST OF THESE VARIABLES WILL DEPEND QUITE A BIT ON THE MOISTURE
FLUX ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST.

.LONG TERM...
TUE WE WILL SEE ANOTHER WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE GULF AND POSSIBLY
ANOTHER BY THU.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Freakin' madhouse!


Mornin' Doug. Pretty impressive line of tropicality starting to rev up, huh?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oh, man, the tropics getting warmed up AND the fifth anniversary of Charley tomorrow...

The phone's already ringing off the hook...

Good thing I brought my lunch today..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3460. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54352
We have Ana:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
12/1145 UTC 14.3N 33.5W T2.5/2.5 02L
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
oops. quoted myself instead of 3452.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mikatnight:


Fish Storm means it doesn't strike land, or doesn't make landfall.


something fishy in that explanation...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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